Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 020810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

VERY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH FROST POTENTIAL THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LAKE
BREEZES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E...INCREASING 850MB
TEMPS BY 3-4C. WITH THESE WARMER TEMPS...FROST WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FROST WELL INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR AND JUST INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS INLAND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...BUT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY TO COVER THIS THREAT. THE WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
WARMER MAX TEMPS ON TUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
INLAND. LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZES WILL NOT MOVE FAR INLAND DUE TO
STRONGER SLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE EJECTING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A 1009MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING WITH THIS FEATURE
IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
NEARING OR IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN JAMES BAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
INTENSITY TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. THUS...WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING AND
REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INSTABILITY PRETTY MARGINAL
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG) WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.

ONCE THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AND LIKELY
DECAYS...CONFIDENCE GREATLY DIMINISHES DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND
IN TURN A VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS CONSISTENT IN ALL OF THE MODELS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY NIGHT LEADS TO SOME
VARIATIONS. 00Z GEM AND 12Z ECMWF FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THIS OF A LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH IN MINNESOTA AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRODUCES STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND AS A RESULT MORE/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE WAVES LESS CONNECTED AND
DON/T DEVELOP THE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THINK THAT IDEA IS REASONABLE (MATCHING A MAJORITY OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THAT.
THUS...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DOWN WITH THE LIMITED FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT DON/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
RUMBLES WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE FROM
A CANADIAN HIGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND A NICE
START TO THE WEEKEND. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S).

THAT HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS TIED TO ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THEN MERGING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING.
WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
HINTS AT A STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHORTWAVE (AND TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION)...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT IDEA AS IT COULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE UPPER MI...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CNTRL AND ERN LAKES AND LOW
PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS EVENING...LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING SO
THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW 15KT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS
E. HEADING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT
TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER
20KT TUE AFTN THROUGH EARLY THU. IF THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING
OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005>007-009>014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS


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