Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 200823
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
423 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.

TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES
COMING INTO AGREEMENT. DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
PHASING OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
AND ONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE NORTHERN WAVE SLIDING FROM ALBERTA AT 00Z
MONDAY INTO EASTERN MANITOBA/NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. BY
00Z TUESDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH JUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE NAM FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH...BUT MOVES SLIGHTLY
QUICKER THAN THE REST. DIFFERENCES IN THE TILT OF THE TROUGH EXIST
BY THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF POSITIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
WEST...AND THE GFS/GEM/NAM NEUTRALLY/NEGATIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
EAST. THE GEM HAS A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.

THE SOUTHERN WAVE ALOFT IS FAIRLY BROAD AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS AT 00Z MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE  GFS/ECMWF SPORT A POSITIVE TILT EXTENDING FROM
IOWA INTO OKLAHOMA. THE GEM/NAM HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH...DEVELOPING
ONLY THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT IN OKLAHOMA. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE MODELS
COME INTO SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...EXTENDING IT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

THESE TWO WAVES MERGE INTO A DISJOINTED TROUGH BY 18Z
TUESDAY...MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOGETHER AS A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

UNFORTUNATELY...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCLUDING WHETHER OR NOT SUNDAYS
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE S/SE CWA WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOWER
MI MONDAY OR BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING NORTHERN WAVE...ALLOWING THE A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW
TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS/NAM KEEP THE
DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER SOUTH OVER LOWER MI AND PUSH IT INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN WAVE DROPPING INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL CWA BEHIND THE MAIN
PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. OVERALL...DECIDED
TO BLEND WITH THE ECMWF/GFS...BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO THE EASTERN
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL FOR THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON MON EVE-TUESDAY AM.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE WARM...WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER UPPER MI
RANGING FROM 6C TO 8C. THIS PUTS HIGHS INLAND AND WEST INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MID 60S. AREAS EASTWARD WILL SEE MORE CLOUD
COVER...SO PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW TO MID
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SOME DAYS. WITH THE
RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER
RIVER FLOWS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY TUESDAY EVENING
AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...KEEPING WEATHER COOL AND QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN. AGREEMENT IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE MORE POTENT
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GEM/GFS...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA BY
18Z THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO DEEPER THAN THE GFS/GEM. THE GEM/GFS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS POPS AGAIN...GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH THE GFS/ECWMF
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...LEADING
TO ANOTHER COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

PRECIPITATION ALONG TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AT THE 06Z FCST ISSUANCE. GIVEN ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KIWD AND
KCMX.

MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHC FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TO LIFT AT KSAW BY LATE SUN MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SW. NE LAKE BREEZE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

EXPECT LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH A LOW-LVL
JET MAX JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS
6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM
LOCAL LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HIGH AS THE
LOW 40S...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING
CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO
THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SNOWMELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...SRF






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