Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 271902
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
302 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH
JUST A COUPLE OF MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. AS ALLUDED TO
YESTERDAY...THERE WERE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOWER CLOUDS COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. PRIOR TO SUNSET LAST NIGHT.
IT WAS A CLOSE RACE BUT THE SETTING SUN WON OUT...TRAPPING THE LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE EAST FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT MORE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
FROM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG...SOME OF IT LOCALLY
DENSE...HAS DEVELOPED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
U.P. THIS TOO SHOULD DISSIPATE PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.

WITH RETURN FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO THEIR NORMAL
LATE AUGUST LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING EAST TONIGHT AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH A
DISTURBANCE MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER...IN THE 50S...COMPARED TO THE CHILLY
READING WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE LONG TERM...FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. A SHORTWAVE IS SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE 00Z/27
ECMWF IS DEEPEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WITH RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE 12Z/27 GFS IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER AND
FARTHER S...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. THE 12Z/27 GEM AND 12Z/27
NAM MATCH CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT DO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE SRN
CWA. WILL TEND TO FAVOR A GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS GIVEN HOW MUCH OF AN
OUTLIER THE ECMWF IS. THIS RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS OVER SCENTRAL UPPER
MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 00Z SUN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM SUN
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION WED OR THU IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROUND
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. THE AIRMASS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...HOVERING AROUND 20C FROM LATE MON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS BEING 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM MON ON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRETTY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 15
KTS OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MZ


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