Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 080900
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW...ASSISTED BY THE 100-115KT 250MB JET NOSING
IN ACROSS LAKE MI. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH 0.5 TO 2.5IN SHOWING UP OFF THE LATEST RADAR SCANS. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY EXIT E THROUGH THE MORNING.

AS A CONTRAST TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THAT WERE REALIZED ON
MONDAY...60S WILL BE THE RULE TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW 50S RIGHT ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR DESPITE THE EARLY JULY SUN. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO THE
NW OFF MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AN AVERAGE
OF 6C BY THE END OF THE DAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS/ ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER RAIN IS FCST...WITH TOTALS AROUND 0.10IN OR
LESS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT JET DYNAMICS OR CAPE VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP SOME
ISOLD SHRA AROUND THE AREA WED MORNING...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. 850MB TEMPS
COOLING TO 6-8C ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH MORNING CLOUDS/ISOLD
SHRAR AND NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO A BELOW
NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE U.P. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S...WITH COOLER VALUES EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAYBE A FEW
SITES REACHING 70 NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS 55-60 PERCENT OF
NORMAL UNDER THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO
A COOL NIGHT OVER THE TYPICAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FCST TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND 40F.

THURSDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL ON
THURSDAY UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES ON THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST AND NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN.

THAT NEXT WAVE ROUNDING THE WRN CONUS RDG EMERGING FROM THE PAC NW
WILL PUSH A LOW EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH INTO NW MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS THU NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW INCREASING CHANCES DURING THAT PERIOD AND
THEN DIMINISHING LATE IN THE NIGHT AND INTO THE NEXT MORNING.
DIURNAL HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PACIFIC WAVE FINALLY PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SHRA/TSRA.

IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLN IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN BOTH THE
GFS AND GEM-NH WITH DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION AND SURGE OF COLDER AIR
(3-6C 8H TEMPS BY LATE MONDAY) INTO THE UPPER LAKES ASSOC WITH
ADVANCING CLOSED LOW. IN ANY EVENT...TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE AREA
SHOULD ENSURE A COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HINT AT THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC
TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH. WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA
AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH SCT INSTABILITY SHRA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO MON AS
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES INTO EARLY MORNING. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT NE LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD DROPPING TO IFR TUE MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID TUE AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL AGAIN ARRIVE IN THE EVENING THERE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP AGAIN. CIGS WILL GO TO LIFR IN THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AT
SAW WITH UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LASTING THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVE. AT
KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY TUE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE AFTERNOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN 25KTS OR BELOW OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL EXIT INTO QUEBEC TODAY. FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS E LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY ON SATURDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF





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