Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 101015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
615 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL MID JULY MORNING.
TEMPS ARE AS LOW AS MID-UPR 30S IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF INTERIOR
UPR MICHIGAN...BUT ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S ALONG IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR
SHORE. PATCHY FOG AFFECTING SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST...WITH VSBY
DOWN TO AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT KIMT. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY
WITH CU POPPING UP DURING PEAK HEATING. CU MAY GET BOOST ALONG LK
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE OF EASTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN. NCEP WRF
MODELS GENERATE SMATTERING OF QPF ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. LIKELY TOO
DRY BLO CLOUD BASE FOR THAT TO HAPPEN THOUGH. MIXING TO H85-H8
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF CWA...THOUGH COOLER
READINGS IN THE 60S WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. MOST NOTABLE
COOLING ALONG LK MICHIGAN WITH STRONGER LAKE BREEZE AS GRADIENT WIND
IS ALREADY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. PWATS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE OF
NORMAL TODAY AND SINCE DWPNTS ARE ALREADY LOW...LOWERED MIN DWPNTS/RH
FOR THE AFTN IN THE INTERIOR.

WARMER TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. COOLEST READINGS OVER INTERIOR
EASTERN CWA AS THE LOW PWAT STAYS OVER THERE CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAY BE GUSTY OVR LK
SUPERIOR AND ALONG SHORELINE...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF MARQUETTE SINCE
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 60 DEGREES WHICH ONLY ENHANCES THE
MIXING. POSSIBLE THAT WIND GUSTS TONIGHT COULD PUSH OVER 25 MPH FOR A
TIME. MID CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT OUT WEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING ESE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NW
WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY AXIS WELL TO THE WEST...SO TSRA CHANCES APPEAR
SLIM. HOWEVER...DECENT 1000-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION IN RETURN FLOW
REGIME ALONG WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOLDING ACROSS WESTERN
CWA SUPPORTS SOME RISK OF SHOWERS. INCLUDED A MENTION OF 15-20 PCT
CHANCES AFT 09Z FOR THE WEST AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. AS ALLUDED TO
ABOVE...TEMPS TONIGHT COULD STAY WELL IN THE 60S OVER FAR WEST DUE TO
THE SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. TEMPS
SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST OVER
THE INTERIOR EASTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EXPECTED ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WRN CANADA
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO JUST W OF HUDSON BAY BY 00Z SAT BEFORE
SHIFTING S TO THE CENTRAL MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY 00Z MON. DURING
THIS TIME...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH...ONE FRI
NIGHT/SAT AND ANOTHER ON SUN NIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IMPROVING IN
SHOWING THE LOW MOVING TO OR NEAR THE WRN CWA BY 00Z TUE BEFORE
SHIFTING TO E OF THE CWA BY 18Z TUE AND INTO NRN QUEBEC BY 0Z0
THU...ALTHOUGH DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL COOL OFF AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE TUE AS THE LOW SHIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 4C. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH INSTABILITY
RESULTING FROM DAYTIME SFC HEATING BENEATH COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD...HIGH TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 IN SOME SPOTS ON TUE...WHICH WOULD BE
RECORD BREAKING FROM A MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE PERSPECTIVE.

FRI WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND
INSTABILITY ON THE LOW END /BELOW 300J/KG/...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS
NOT EXPECTED.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL HAVE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO JUST GENERAL
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE FRONT COULD SLOW DOWN...WHICH /DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND
EARLIER PRECIPITATION/ COULD RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY OVER
SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE LAKE BREEZES WOULD HELP TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BY 40-45KTS. FAR FROM
CERTAIN...BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE SCENTRAL IF
EVERYTHING WORKS OUT.

SUN/SUN NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS
AND EARLY PRECIPITATION. IF ENOUGH CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN
OCCUR...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OR 45-55KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER
STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH LOW-END VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. MID CLOUDS THICKEN UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
FRONT. ISOLD SHRA...NOT MUCH THUNDER THOUGH...MAY AFFECT KIWD AND
KCMX LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN SO KEPT OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...IN TERMS OF BOTH DIRECTION AND
SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME TONIGHT AT MAINLY KCMX. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS TODAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST...BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
CROSSES LK SUPERIOR INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA




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