Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 170348
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1148 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

Quiet weather will be the rule thru the short term as high pres
currently settling over the Upper Great Lakes only drifts to the se
on Mon. Dry air mass associated with the high cleared out the low
clouds that dominated early today. Despite full sunshine, it`s a
cool day, amazingly so across n central Upper MI, and not just along
the lake. So far as of 300pm EDT, the high temp here at NWS
Marquette has only reached 59F. The record low max for today is 63F.
Still several hrs to ago for additional warming, but it`s certainly
possible that a new record low max will be set. You would expect
such a feat in mid summer to occur on a cloudy/rainy/drizzly day,
not on a day with full sunshine from late morning on. Well inland
over the w half, temps have risen to the upper 60s/around 70F.

Tonight will be an ideal set up for chilly conditions as sfc high
pres, clear skies and light/calm wind will prevail thru the night.
Precipitable water is fcst to be down to as low as 1/3rd of an inch
or roughly 35-40pct of normal right over the usual cold areas of the
interior w half, enhancing radiational cooling. Have thus utilized
mostly the lowest avbl guidance for the interior. Expect some of the
traditional cold spots, especially w half, to fall into the upper
30s. Not out of the question that the record low of 40F at NWS
Marquette will be broken. If ongoing geomagnetic storm continues
tonight, cloudless skies will make for excellent viewing of the
aurora.

As high pres slips off to the se on Mon, expect a warmer day with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, locally cooler along the Great
Lakes. Sunshine will only be dimmed by some high clouds at times.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

As upper-level ridging builds across the southern CONUS throughout
the week, zonal flow will develop across the northern CONUS and
eventually transition back over to northwest flow towards the end of
the week/weekend as broad troughing traverses central and eastern
portions of Canada. This pattern will allow a number of shortwaves
to traverse the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. Depending on
the track/strength of these waves, we could see periods of showers
and thunderstorms. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day in the
extended, and possibly a humid day ahead of a trailing cold front.
Otherwise, for the rest of the week as we remain on the northern
edge of the warm air to our south-southwest, expect temperatures to
remain more seasonable.

Monday night through Wednesday, a trailing cold front associated
with a low pressure system moving across the Hudson Bay will push
east across the northern Great Lakes. Ahead of this cold front, the
combination of a developing lee cyclone in the central Plains and
exiting surface high pressure should allow low-level moisture to try
and return northward. With the main system lifting northeast of the
Hudson Bay and reinforcing low-level flow from the previously
mentioned developing lee cyclone, expect the front to slowly push
east across Upper Michigan on Tuesday. Depending on how the
convection Monday evening evolves across the arrowhead of Minnesota,
we could see showers and storm push across western Lake Superior and
into western portions of the area by Tuesday morning. By the
afternoon/evening hours, the medium range models are in fairly good
agreement with this front making its way into western/central
portions of the area during peak heating. This would also foster
additional convergence and potential for storms not only along the
cold front, but along any lake breezes that push inland. The big
questions will be if any morning convection messes up the moisture
return this far north and the amount of diurnal destabilization
given potential cloud cover and the present of a strong EML. Given
the fact that we`ve seen higher dew points reach far southern
portions of the area as of recent, and the source region coming from
the corn belt down across Iowa and southern Minnesota, it doesn`t
seem unrealistic that dew points could climb into the mid 60s to
lower 70s, like the medium range models suggest. The Storm
Prediction Center has included portions of Upper Michigan in a
Marginal Risk for severe storms Tuesday, which at this point given
the uncertainties seems on point. Regardless of whether or not
severe storms develop, PWATs will be on the increase so expect heavy
rain to accompany any thunderstorm activity. There is some
disagreement among the medium range models in regards to when this
front will vacate Upper Michigan Tuesday night, but it looks like
there could be some lingering showers and storms across the south
central and east on Wednesday morning. Then, things look like they
will dry out for the rest of the day on Wednesday as high pressure
takes over.

Thursday through the weekend, mid-level flow tries to become a bit
more northwesterly with a number of shortwaves digging across the
region. The medium range models are struggling to consistently track
the path and intensity of these waves and subsequent chances for
precipitation. Therefore, confidence remains low in how
precipitation chances will play out. We`re not looking at a washout
every day as these waves remain fairly progressive, but there will
be periodic chances for showers and storms.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

With high pressure and associated dry air mass settling over the
area, VFR conditions will continue at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst
period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

High pres settling over the Upper Great Lakes will bring a period of
light winds under 15kt across Lake Superior tonight. As the high
shifts se Mon/Mon night and a cold front approaches from the nw, se
then s winds will increase. Gusts should reach around 20kt over the
e half of the lake Mon night. Winds will then mostly be under 15kt
from Tue aftn thru Fri as pres gradient will be weak across the
Upper Lakes.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Rolfson



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