Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 161719
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
119 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC JET
MAX MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WHICH HAS SUPPORTED A CLUSTER OF SHRA
ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NW ONTARIO AS NOTED ON CANADIAN
RADAR MOSIAC. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
HAVE ALLOWED FOR MIN TEMPS TO DROP NEAR OR BLO THE FREEZING MARK FOR
MANY OF THE TYPICAL INTERIOR COLD SPOT LOCATIONS ACROSS UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND ASSOC 900-800 MB FGEN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
KEWEENAW UNTIL EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
EVEN REACHING UPPER 60S FOR A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OVER NCNTRL
UPPER MI IN DEVELOPING WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO MAINLY THE NW AND ERN
CWA BY LATE EVENING. MODELS SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE N OF
THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING/Q-VECT CONV TO BE OVER NW AND ERN
CWA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ASSOC 100+ KT 3H JET MAX MOVING INTO
WRN QUEBEC. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER
MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE THE CWA TUE EVENING WILL HAVE A
WNW-ESE ORIENTATION OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AT 12Z WED...AND WILL MOVE
S OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE N OF THE FRONT
AND BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT...USHERING IN DRY
AND COLDER AIR. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PRECIP CHANCES IS THAT THE
GREATEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA WED MORNING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ENERGY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER TO THE S...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOLLOW THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER NRN
UPPER MI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL.

THE SFC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED A NARROW AREA OF
WAA AND GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT NEWEST RUNS SHOW
THAT BEING WELL SW OF THE CWA. THEREFOR...WHILE ERN UPPER MI SHOULD
STILL BE THE COLDEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND COLDEST
AIRMASS...THE WRN CWA COULD ALSO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS. LOOKS LIKE
FROST IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND UPPER MI.

LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON THU BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC
HIGH AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THU DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER THAN WED.

WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE
SFC HIGH TO THE E SLOWS AND THE TROUGH TO THE W ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. THE WAA AND POSSIBLY SOME  SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT BECOME MUCH HARDER TO USE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE /AT LEAST PARTLY/ TO WITH PHASING OF REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH. WHILE MODELS DO ALL SHOW A
GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF FOR SAT...THEY DO NOT AGREE WELL IN THE FEATURES
CAUSING THE PRECIP. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SAT...SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES GOING FOR FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING...BUT AM NOT OVER CONCERNED ABOUT
HEAVY RAIN UNLESS REMNANTS OF ODILE END UP MOVING INTO THE AREA
/WHICH IS HIGH UNCERTAIN/. WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED ON SAT AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 15C.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH NW FLOW SUN AND MON...EVEN BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ECMWF SHOULD BE SET ASIDE BECAUSE IT IS A COLD
OUTLIER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL
DROP S INTO PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING AS
SUBTLE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ESE ALONG FRONT TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT IS EXPECTED THAT LOW CLOUDS AND BAND OF RAIN
THAT WILL DEVELOP N OF FRONT WILL PASS JUST N OF KCMX LATE TONIGHT.
AS THE VERY WEAK SFC LOW PASSES WED MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
S...BRINGING LOW MVFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS. IFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY KSAW WHICH WILL SEE A MORE DIRECT
UPSLOPE WIND AFTER FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

EXPECT WSW WINDS TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS FRONT MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED
INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30
KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. WINDS
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRES TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS
MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS






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