Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 292020
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A 500MB
TROUGH OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION AND CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W. THE RESULT WILL BE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH.
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES PLAGUE THIS ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. DAYTIME/MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AWAY FROM THE COOLER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S /INTERIOR
W/...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL.

THE PERSISTENT 500MB LOW NEAR AND S OF JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT NE
ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE W NUDGES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI...AND THE SFC 30.2IN HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THE NW FLOW WILL RETURN ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE SE AND IS REPLACED
BY YET ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH. TUESDAY IS A BIT MORE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...SO KEPT WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH VCSH AT CMX AND SAW BECAUSE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE S OF THOSE AIRPORTS. AT IWD...WENT WITH VCSH BECAUSE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THEY HAVE NOT DEVELOPED YET...BUT BETTER
COVERAGE IS QUITE POSSIBLE THERE.

EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL SITES TONIGHT...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ON
THE EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







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