Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 230716
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE THIS AFTN ARE LOW RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15
PCT OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN
THE LOW 60S...BUT READINGS ARE IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR TO THE
EAST OF BIG BAY AND MARQUETTE. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING GOOD VIEWING
OF SMOKE PLUME FROM THE USFS PRESCRIBED BURN ONGOING ON THE BARAGA
PLAINS OF WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY. NW WINDS ALOFT HAVE PUSHED THE
PLUME AS FAR EAST AS SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPR MICHIGAN. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STIRRING WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WARM TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ALONG WI BORDER.
NONE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH AS
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS HIGHS TO AT LEAST
LOW-MID 70S OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN AWAY FM ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FM
KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P...SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS BECOME SOUTHWEST-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS IN GUSTS OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR INTO
SATUDAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS FM REACHING
THE SFC AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA



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