Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 130717
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
317 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
WRN HUDSON BAY INTO NRN MANITOBA. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SRN
MANITOBA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT NEARING WINNIPEG. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER SHRTWV FROM ERN MN
INTO WRN WI COMBINED WITH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCH) SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM SE MN INTO
CNTRL AND NRN WI. CONVERGENCE ALON LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHERE MLCAPE HAS CLIMBED TO NEAR 1K J/KG HAS
TRIGGERED ISOLD ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FROM FAR NW DELTA COUNTY INTO NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES INLAND FROM CNTRL INTO ERN UPPER MI INTO THIS
EVENING TIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN WI AS SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THEY MAY EXPAND INTO SRN UPPER MI AND POSSIBLE TOWARD
MQT/P53 AS THE WI SHRTWV ADVANCES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD FAVOR KEEPING HIGHER
COVERAGE/POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR S/SE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLY ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MANITOBA FRONT/SHRTWV
MOVE INTO UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE PCPN FOCUS ARRIVES
WHEN MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED TO 400 J/KG OR LESS...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHRA DEPART FROM THE FAR ERN CWA
EARLY...BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH WNW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 6C-8C RANGE...MAX
READINGS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM NW
TO SE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS WITH POPS/TEMPS MON-WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE. THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY HANGING OUT OVER EXTREME NWRN ONTARIO AND IT SET TO
SPLIT IN TWO TODAY...SENDING A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO QUEBEC WHILE THE
OTHER ROTATES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. MODELS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT UNTIL THE 00Z/14 RUNS WHICH WILL BE AFTER A LOT OF
THE ENERGY HAS SPLIT OUT OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS NOW...AT LEAST
MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE RAIN MON INTO MON NIGHT...WITH PRECIP
LINGERING INTO TUE. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE PRECIP INCLUDE THE
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...DAYTIME
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
LOW...AND NLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TROUGHING E AND A HIGH
WELL TO THE W. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BY FAR WILL BE ON MON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY WELL
BE SOME DRY SPOTS DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE COMPACTS
UPPER LOW...SO THOSE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER
SHIFTS WHEN MODELS /HOPEFULLY/ COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HAVE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S W AND AROUND 60 S AND E. THESE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE N WINDS AND COLD CORE OF THE LOW STILL OVER THE CWA TUE
MORNING...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY TO
THE NE ON TUE...WITH A SFC HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT OVER THE WRN
CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS
POSSIBLY NOT GETTING ABOVE 50. THESE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THINK THE MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT COULD BE TOO WARM...BUT
ONLY IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS. WITH THE COLD DAY ON TUE...CLEARING
/OF UNCERTAIN MAGNITUDE/ TUE NIGHT FROM W TO TO E MAY LEAD TO SOME
COLDER MIN TEMPS OVER WRN UPPER MI. AMONG THE REASONS FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY ARE POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW/TROUGH AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
AS MUCH.

REMAINING UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WED AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS TOWARD THE CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND THE
AIRMASS OVERALL WARMER...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER SFC TEMPS WITH
HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 70 INLAND.

FORECAST WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDING
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED. IN GENERAL...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SAT...HIGH TEMPS COULD REACH 80 OVER THE INTERIOR W.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SINCE PCPN OCCURRED AT KSAW...IT`S
POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BECAUSE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH SHRA ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING...COLD FRONT MAY
STILL BRING -SHRA AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO KIWD/KCMX IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. OTHERWISE...BEHIND COLD FRONT...GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH ALL TERMINALS GUSTING 20-30KT. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH IS MORE EXPOSED WITH A WNW WIND.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THERE MAY BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF FOG ARE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE STRONGER FRONT AS
STRONG DRY ADVECTION TAKES OVER. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB





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