Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 190545
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH POISED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON MON.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE ERN CWA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MONDAY IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z WED THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WHICH GETS FLATTENED A BIT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF IT ON THU. THIS PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z FRI AND 12Z SAT. THIS WILL STILL MEAN A DRY FORECAST
THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF






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