Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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214 FXUS63 KMQT 081848 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers mainly end this morning as the low pressure system departs. However, slight chances for light showers continue over the west into this afternoon. - Multiple passing low pressure systems will keep rain chances in the forecast into early next week along with thunderstorm chances both Sunday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 519 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Current RAP analysis has the shortwave and sfc low responsible for the line of showers yesterday and the current comma head of showers lighting up the radar over the east and Lake Michigan well stacked over the Mackinac Bridge. As these two features move east today toward New England, the heavier showers will move east with it this morning. Additional accumulations this morning are expected between a few hundreths and 0.3", higher in the east half of Upper MI. Although the better precip moves out this morning, slight chances for low impact light showers/drizzle continues throughout the day. Best chances for precip (~15-20%) are over the east as PWATs show decent moisture around 0.75" and some weak q-vector convergence remains. Confidence in timing or exact location of these showers is low as PoP solutions among the CAMs were not in agreement. Best consensus was over the western half of the UP earlier in the afternoon, save for the Keweenaw. Additional accumulations after sunrise likely will only be a few hundreths at best, so no real impacts are expected. Any lingering precip should end by this evening as drier air advects in from the north. With northerly winds off Lake Superior today, highs near the lake will stay lower in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The interior and southern half of the UP are expected to see highs peak in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough extending from New England down to the central Rockies 12z Thu. There is also a shortwave in northern Saskatchewan 12z Thu which heads down to Lake Winnipeg 00z Fri and into the upper Great Lakes on Fri. Dry and quiet weather lasts into Fri afternoon. Di no make too many changes to the going forecast overall. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the ern U.S. and a trough in the central Rockies and ridge on the west coast 12z Sun. There is also a shortwave in south central Canada 12z Sun that moves into the upper Great Lakes Sun night. A shortwave moves into the northern Rockies 12z Tue and into the northern plains 12z Wed. Temperatures will continue to be above normal for this forecast period and will be unsettled with weak systems moving through the area with one on Sunday and one on Wednesday with a sfc front hanging around the area as well according to the manual sfc progs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Lower level moisture is mixing out and is being lifted by building mixed layer. Advection of stabilizing marine layer off of Lake Superior will also work to limit any cu/stratocu development closer to the lake this aftn. For IWD/CMX, this stabilizing influence will allow VFR to prevail this aftn, and VFR will continue tonight. At SAW, expect stabilizing flow off of Lake Superior to result in MVFR cigs scattering out to VFR in the next hr or two. VFR will then continue at SAW tonight. Area of lower level moisture represented by the stratocu per vis satellite imagery well ne of Lake Superior will advect sw today and tonight. While some of this moisture will mix out this aftn, it should contribute to cu/stratocu/MVFR cigs developing at all terminals after sunrise on Thu. After a few hrs or so, cloud bases will lift to VFR, or the clouds will scatter out to VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots will prevail through tonight mainly over western and central portions of Lake Superior. After that, despite wind shifts due to multiple low pressure systems, winds will remain below 20 knots through Monday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for LSZ240>242. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243- 244. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jablonski LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...07