Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 140747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THE LOW WITH SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8C/KM AND DAYTIME
HEATING SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW WI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST WINDS PREVAILED OVER
UPPER MI WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AROUND A 997 MB LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SAGS TOWARD THE NRN LAKES...EXPECT
SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH. MODERATE/STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY 06Z AND EAST OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

MON...MID 700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (700 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C) FOR NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MUCAPE VALUES OF 400 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY SHALLOW/NARROW
CAPE EXPECTED...AND LACK OF LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM...NO
MENTION OF TSRA WAS ADDED. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER MI 12Z TUE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PAST THE CWA AT THAT POINT. THE TROUGH AND LOW MOVE EAST
TUE AND NORTHEAST ON WED AWAY FROM THE AREA. PCPN WILL BE SLOWLY
PULLING OUT ON TUE AND BY WED...SHOULD BE DRY. NAM SHOWS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SLOWLY DEPARTING ON TUE. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS
FORECAST.

WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO DRY THEN FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
12Z THU. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THEN.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR FRI. ON SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA FORMS AN UPPER LOW IN IT THAT MOVES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN 12Z SAT. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM SITS OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR SUN THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING IN OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN...THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AND PERHAPS KSAW.
INITIALLY...LOW-LEVELS ARE DRY...SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
INTO THIS MORNING. DURING THE MORNING...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT KIWD/KCMX...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY INTO THE NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AT KIWD UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW IF STEADIER PCPN DEVELOPS. WITH
COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
SHRA ACTIVITY THERE TODAY. AT KSAW...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN THAT CIGS FALL TO MVFR. CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS MAY
FALL TO IFR NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

EXPECT THAT THE GUSTY WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB






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