Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 272138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS






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