Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 302327
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN IT. THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN FOR SUN.

NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OUT TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEAN DIMINISHING POPS AND
PCPN THIS FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MEAN FOG WILL BE PREVALENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING WHICH IS ALREADY COVERED IN
THE GOING FORECAST. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
AND WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GETTING INTO THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUN NIGHT AND MON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EXIT REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL CATCH UP WITH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT INITIALLY
FROM FROM THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE AND
JET EXIT REGION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA MON...WITH A 997MB LOW FORMING
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER AND DEEPENING TO AROUND 988MB WHILE
MOVING TO HUDSON BAY BY 06Z TUE. THIS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...WRN UPPER MI BY 18Z MON...CENTRAL UPPER
MI BY 00Z TUE AND JUST E OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUE. WHILE PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE A CERTAINTY ACROSS THE CWA...EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. MODEL
QPF FIELDS HINT AT THE FORMATION OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE OF IF/WHEN/WHERE THAT COULD HAPPEN IS
QUITE LOW. ALSO...WHILE THE KINEMATICS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE QUITE
STRONG /0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30KTS/...THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR CAPE BUILDUP WILL BE OVER THE
ERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL NOT MOVE IN AS EARLY. STILL TOO
EARLY/UNCERTAIN TO HAVE GOOD FEEL FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

TUE LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONAL AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
9-11C...LEADING TO HIGH TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

FORECAST FOR WED THROUGH NEXT SAT IS UNCERTAIN AS ZONAL FLOW LOOKS
TO BE THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EACH
OTHER AND FROM RUN TO RUN ON A FEW POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH OR NEARBY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOES FAVOR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TIMING/COVERAGE
IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE...IT DOES
APPEAR A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THU...WITH TEMPS
RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. WILL USE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LLVL DRIER AIR WL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR AT IWD AND CMX THIS EVNG...BUT EXPECT RADIATION FOG TO DVLP IN
THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING/LGT WINDS AS WEAK HI PRES MOVES OVER
THE AREA. MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME VLIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT IWD/CMX FOR A TIME DURING THE EARLY MRNG
HRS ON SUN. A STEADIER UPSLOPE N WIND AHEAD OF THIS APRCHG HI WL
CAUSE LO CLDS/IFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER ALL NGT AT SAW...BUT THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE LO CIGS SHOULD DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG/VLIFR VSBYS TO IMPACT THAT SITE. ONSET TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING
ON SUN WL CAUSE THE FOG/LO CLDS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN FORM AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




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