Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 040457
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1157 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLSOED 500 MB LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CA
COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO
THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THERE IS ALSO
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL HEAD
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED.

NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES BACK IN ON
WED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TREND OF THE SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE
FORECAST WHICH IT WILL DO QUICKLY. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN
HAND. OVERALL...COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND WILL KICK
OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IN WEST NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BELTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TONIGHT IN THOSE
AREAS AND CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WED AFTERNOON WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AS WELL
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...LEADING TO A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PRESENT. 925-850MB
MEAN WIND DIRECTION IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL FOCUS
ON THOSE AREAS INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOWNWIND OF THE ASSUMED
OPEN ICE AREAS AFTER THE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL BACK WINDS
TO THE WEST AND HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT FOLLOW SUIT WHILE DIMINISHING
(DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR). WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTWARD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THAT POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
FINAL ITEM OF NOTE...WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WEAKENING WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY SOME -20S IN THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN OUR 10MPH
CRITERIA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -25 AND
DECIDED TO ADD INTO THE HWO.

AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AREA
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN MOST
CASES...THESE WAVES WILL BE WEAK AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN ONTARIO. THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE 850MB TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
WARMER THAN -12C. 850MB TEMPS DO LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND -16C ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BUT WINDS DURING THAT
PERIOD BACK VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOVING
AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE STRONGEST WAVE AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE...WOULDN/T EXPECT
MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING.

BEHIND THE SUNDAY SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE LAST MONTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING ON THIS TRANSITION
AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. USING A CONSENSUS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAVORABLE
THAW/FREEZE CYCLE ON MOST DAYS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COMPACTION AND MELTING LINGERING SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE COMBINED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE VSBY TONIGHT IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KCMX. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KIWD AND ESPECIALLY THE KCMX
LOCATIONS...WHERE WINDS AT KCMX COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX WHERE IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MORE
EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF SNOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS
WNW WINDS DIE DOWN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER WED...NO GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES
IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07


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