Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 231823

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
223 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over southern
Saskatchewan with a trough in the northern rockies, a closed low
along the mid atlantic seaboard and a 500 mb ridge over the upper
Great Lakes. A shortwave will eject out of the central plains this
afternoon and will head northeast and affect the area tonight and
bring with it some convection. This shortwave will also help to
flatten the ridge over the area. Nam brings in some weak 850-500 mb
q-vector convergence with a narrow ribbon of deeper moisture moving
through the western cwa tonight and then across the ern cwa on Tue.
Overall, the going forecast has things pretty well in hand and did
not make too many changes to the going forecast. Kept temperatures
about the same. One thing I did do is cut back the pops a bit and
moved them further back a couple hours as the airmass is very dry
and will take a while to moisten up.

As for fire weather, will continue to let the red flag warning
continue through 8 pm as winds will finally die down and
temperatures will fall a bit, so relative humidities will slowly
increase this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Several rounds of convection are expected in the long term, with
POPs almost every period. Put focus into Tue through Wed night as
consensus blend will adequately handle conditions beyond then.

A weakening cold front over western Upper MI Tue morning will
continue to move southeast through the day Tue while a shortwave
moves through and lake breezes form. All these will help fire
convection in an area of increasing CAPE out ahead of the front and
on the warm side of lake breezes. At this time, think that 500-1000
J/kg of CAPE will develop mainly over interior west and central
Upper MI with high temperatures up to 80 degrees. Low level winds
will be weak as will shear, so not expecting organized severe
storms. However, there is potential for some strong storms.

Tue night through most of Wed looks mostly dry, aside from a stray
shower or two, as surface and upper riding passes overhead.

Convection returns late Wed (mainly after 00Z Thu) as a shortwave
moves in from the southwest. Another shortwave move through just
behind the first, possibly keeping convection over the area into Thu
night. Due to timing of initial convection late Wed, CAPE will not
be sufficient for severe weather.

A more significant shortwave may move through the region late in the
week into the weekend, but confidence is fairly low at that point.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

With daytime heating, the strong southwest winds just above the
surface based inversion will mix out and result in gusty winds into
this evening. Since the SSW flow will be tapping dry air, VFR
conditions will prevail until late tonight. Some shra/perhaps a TS
may move into IWD/CMX this evening and to SAW late tonight. With the
greater moisture and pcpn, MVFR cigs are also expected into CMX/IWD
late tonight and at SAW Tue morning.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 223 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Southerly winds of up to 25 knots are expected through this evening
as a low pressure trough approaches from the west. The trough will
stall over the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday through Friday, bringing
winds generally under 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
  Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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