Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260246
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1046 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

00Z APX SOUNDING HAS DRIED OUT NICELY FROM 12 HOURS AGO...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 0.72 INCH COMPARED TO 1.50 INCHES THIS
MORNING.  COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DRYING NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO/FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA.  SMALL BUBBLE
OF HIGH PRESSURE (1014MB) CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
WEAK QG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES CONTRIBUTING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.  SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS COMING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND NORTHEAST IOWA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT NOT MUCH CLOUD
COVER ADVANCING IN FROM THE WEST.  SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED
IN THE MAIN TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAY ADD IN SOME PATCHY FOG
ESPECIALLY NEAR SAGINAW BAY WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID 60S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND LOOKING LIKE A
QUIET EVENING ON TAP. DON`T FORESEE ANY FORECAST ISSUES YET WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN SLIDING EAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: ANOTHER HOUR...TIL 4PM...FOR SCATTERED STORMS IN
GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS...THE COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING SRN GLADWIN AND
ARENAC COUNTY AS OF 3PM...AND IN FACT DID RESULT IN THE
REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL > 1" RAIN. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SIGNS OF A LAKE
BREEZE TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS NE LOWER SOUTH OF OSSINEKE...SO
DROPPED THE CHANCES FOR LATER AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THUS...SKIES WILL JUST CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE
TO DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION. OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SFC BASED
AIR REMAINS ON THE HUMID SIDE...WITH TD`S IN THE LOWER 60S BEHIND
THE FRONT.


SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME UPSTREAM HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS DUE TO WEAK VORTICITY IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT. THIS MAY HELP SHALLOW FOG DEVELOP IN THE HUMID
SFC BASED AIR MASS. SOME SIGNALS FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...BUT
BELIEVE THAT CHANCE IS VERY SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER YET THIS SUMMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: AS ALLUDED TO
YESTERDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ABOUT TO GO THROUGH SOME
RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING STAGES OF
THIS WEEK...WITH CURRENT ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME STEADILY
GIVING WAY TO RATHER ROBUST OVERHEAD RIDGE BUILDING. ABOVE
REALIGNMENT REALLY A TWO-FOLD PROCESS...WITH A TEMPORARY
RELAXATION OF NORTHEAST NOAM TROUGHING...ALL-THE-WHILE STRONG
ENERGY DIGS INTO AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ATTENDANT
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT DOME WILL DEFINITELY
SUPPLY SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR YET THIS SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH
WOODS. ALL IN ALL...ABOUT AS ONE WOULD EXPECT HEADING INTO THE
"DOG DAYS" OF SUMMER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS (OR MORE
SPECIFICALLY...JUST HOW WARM TO GO SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY).

DETAILS: INITIAL STAGES OF PATTERN REALIGNMENT BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN THEIR SLOW REBOUND. WEST/NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS...WITH ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES SUPPORTING LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS/DRY SOIL
CONDITIONS WILL MORE THAN OFFSET LIMITED SURFACE WAA...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL UP INTO THE 80S. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...
HELPING KEEP SHORELINE COMMUNITIES JUST A TOUCH COOLER...WITH
ATTENDANT FORCED CONVERGENCE AXES LIKELY HELPING KICK OFF SOME CU.
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS SIMPLY APPEAR TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR INTERIOR EASTERN
UPPER WHERE ZONE OF MAX CONVERGENCE/SOMEWHAT LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS DEFICIENCY. A LOW PROB/COVERAGE
EVENT FOR SURE...AND WILL SIMPLY COVER WITH ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM ONE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND OVERHEAD HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD. RIDGE
REACHES MATURITY ON TUESDAY...WHEN RATHER RESPECTABLE 590
DECAMETER H5 HEIGHTS REACH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. OFF THE DECK
THERMAL PROFILES STEADILY WARM...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20C MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE FORCED MECHANICAL
MIXING WILL REMAIN LIMITED VIA MAINTENANCE OF WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DECENT MIXING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL TAKE THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AN ALMOST
SURE BET...AND SEE LITTLE REASON A FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL NOT
REACH 90 DEGREES BOTH AFTERNOONS. LACK OF ANY DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVENT DEW POINTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...PREVENTING ANY
TYPE OF HEAT HEADLINE CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEVERAL DAYS
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THERE REMAINS OF UNCERTAINTY IN
TERMS OF TIMING...COVERAGE AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF ANY POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL READINGS (UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S) FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HAVE INCLUDED PERIODIC LOW END POPS AGAIN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT A WEAK RIPPLE OR TWO IN RENEWED NORTHWEST FLOW
MAY KICK OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR LOOK SYSTEM TO WEDNESDAY`S...ALTHOUGH WEAKER AND MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED...IS PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NO ISSUES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE WESTERLY BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT...AND
WERE A BIT GUSTY ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY...THE ST. MARYS AND THE NRN
LAKE HURON NEARSHORES. ALL UNDER ADVISORY HOWEVER. WINDS WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...GRADUALLY TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THROUGH MO...WITH A TENDENCY TO TURN
ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS INLAND
EASTERN UPPER MAY DRIFT OUT OVER THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF LAKES
HURON AND MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...SMD



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