Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 021749 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1249 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KACT LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFFECTING THE DFW TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY.

GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AT ALL TAF SITES.

CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHRA ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE THE METROPLEX AND COULD AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES...MAINLY KDFW AND KDAL THROUGH 18Z. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW TSRA CLOSE KDFW...BUT CHANCES OF A DIRECT HIT ARE LOW
AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF RELEASE. IF CONVECTION REACHES
ANY ONE OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THEN CIGS SHOULD GO MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT METROPLEX CIGS TO REMAIN VFR.

ON THE OTHER HAND...A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS /015-025 BKN-OVC/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS KACT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE
CIGS SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. 75

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS A BIT LONGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
WEST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM AN MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ACROSS THE
OZARKS WILL HELP EASE A STATIONARY FRONT IN KS DOWN INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OK. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE INITIATION FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID EVENING...A
30-40 KT LLJ WILL FEED INTO STORMS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
CONGEAL ACTIVITY INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR MCS. MODEST
SSE STEERING CURRENTS WILL MOVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
JUST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY HERE IN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW THIS FIRST MCS
CREATES WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA
SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR NE COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REFORM NORTH OF I-20 OR WHERE
ANY OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST MCS SETTLES IN...WHICH COULD BE
POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER
MCS LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND MOVE SE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON JULY
4TH WILL RE-IGNITE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEREVER THE MAIN
OUTFLOW SETS UP WITH MORE OF THE SAME THREATS FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN LATER ON SUNDAY
FOR SOME LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BEFORE THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS DAMPENING WITH RIDGING ALOFT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE FAR NW COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED MON/TUES IF THE RIDGE DOESN/T ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MUCH AS
I/M EXPECTING. BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL
UPPER HIGH DOES STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FOR SEASONABLY
HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS USUALLY EXPECTED IN EARLY JULY. WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S...THOUGH AFTER HEAT INDICES NEXT
WEEK COULD CREEP OVER 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE HUMID
AREAS EAST OF ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  93  76  91 /   5  20  40  20  30
WACO, TX              93  74  94  74  92 /   0   5   5   0  20
PARIS, TX             91  72  87  72  87 /  10  50  70  50  50
DENTON, TX            94  75  93  74  90 /   5  20  40  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  91  73  89 /   5  20  50  30  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  77  92 /   5  20  40  20  30
TERRELL, TX           94  74  92  74  91 /   5  10  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  93  74  91 /   5   5  20   5  30
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  93  73  92 /   5   5   5   0  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  72  94  73  93 /   5  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75


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