Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 201653
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
NORTHWARD. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
STAY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF WACO.

A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500
AND 2500 FT WILL MOST LIKELY REACH WACO AROUND SUNRISE AND MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z
THURSDAY.


79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EXITING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. MUCH OF WHAT APPEARS ON RADAR IS MID
CLOUD WITHIN THIS AREA OF LIFT...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY
REACHING THE GROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

WHILE THE EXITING DISTURBANCE MIGHT SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
DOMINATE TODAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE RATHER
NEUTRAL TODAY. AS SKIES CLEAR...AND THE AUGUST SUN HEATS THE
SURFACE LAYER...THE LACK OF INHIBITION COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING
LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF
15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD ASSURE ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EFFECTIVELY OBLITERATED. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BUT EVEN WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...THIS INSTABILITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED UNLESS
OUTFLOW FROM SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IS ABLE TO MECHANICALLY
LIFT THE SURFACE LAYER.

BY THURSDAY...A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON TEXAS. ITS INFLUENCE WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. BUT WITH THE RATHER ORDINARY SUMMER RIDGE CENTERED WELL
TO OUR EAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE EXTRAORDINARY FOR
AUGUST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL EXCEED NORMAL VALUES...CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. MITIGATING FACTORS FOR THE
HEAT WILL BE (1) A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE DUE TO PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND (2) DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S WEST OF I-35.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPICAL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD
RIDE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY STIFLE IT...BUT WITH LITTLE ELSE TO KEEP US
ENTERTAINED...IT MAY BEAR WATCHING. THE NEXT LEGITIMATE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO REACTIVATE. FOR NOW...
ONLY INTRODUCED HIDDEN 10 POPS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  77  99  77  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76  99  76  99 /   5   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            98  76  99  76  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  75  97  75  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  78  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  97  75  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  74  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            98  75  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  98  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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