Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 221715
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

CONCERNS...MVFR/IFR CIGS. ONSET OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.

LOWER DEWPOINTS EAST OF A BOWIE /K0F2/ TO KFTW TO LUFKIN /KLFK/
LINE WAS RESULTING IN IFR CIGS TO THE WEST AND MVFR CIGS TO THE
EAST...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX. EXPECT THIS TO HOLD THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXCEPT UNDER BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWERS PASSING OVER KAFW
AND KFTW WHERE VIS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND CIGS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR.

EXPECT IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP 04Z KACT AND BY 09Z OVER THE
METROPLEX AS MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND LLJ CRANKS UP.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS
RETURN BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z. MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT.    75

&&

.UPDATE...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
FRONTAL INVERSION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENSURE
DENSE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE RED RIVER...WHICH IS CLOSER IN PROXIMITY TO A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FOR THE UPDATE HAVE MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO POPS AND LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

TODAY...
LIGHTNING DATA AND THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS BY DAYBREAK...AND THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS /ELEVATED CONVECTION INCREASING TO OUR WEST/
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH AFFECT THE
REGION TODAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT /GENERATED
BY THE SHORTWAVE/ ABOVE THE COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THE COOL
AIR EXTENDS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. RAIN RATES AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS
SHOULD NOT GET TOO OUT OF HAND TODAY...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO THE SATURATED CONDITIONS OF AREA SOILS.
MOST OF TODAY/S PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY AND SATURDAY. LEE ROCKIES SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH. THE RESULTING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DRAW THE
FRONT NORTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SURGE NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO VALUES JUST SHY
OF TWO INCHES AROUND THE TIME THAT STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY. A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
HIGHEST QPF REMAINS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...SO WE WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE /ROUGHLY FROM I-20 TO THE RED
RIVER/ SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE
REST OF THE CWA...BUT WE WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA
AND LET LATER SHIFTS MAKE THIS DECISION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY...BUT THE
MOST RECENT DATA IS INDICATIVE OF MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

NEXT WEEK...
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SO WE HAVE INCLUDED FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH FASTER
MOVING...BUT WITH EXPECTED RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM. WE WILL LOOK
AT THIS SYSTEM IN GREATER DETAIL ONCE WE SEE HOW THE UPCOMING
EVENTS UNFOLD.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  67  82  68  79 /  30  20  50  70  80
WACO, TX              75  68  81  69  81 /  30  20  40  60  80
PARIS, TX             73  61  81  68  79 /  20  20  40  70  80
DENTON, TX            71  65  83  68  78 /  40  20  60  80  80
MCKINNEY, TX          72  65  81  68  78 /  30  20  50  70  80
DALLAS, TX            73  67  83  68  79 /  30  20  40  70  80
TERRELL, TX           74  66  81  70  80 /  20  20  40  60  80
CORSICANA, TX         75  67  82  69  80 /  20  20  40  50  80
TEMPLE, TX            76  68  80  69  80 /  30  20  40  60  80
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  66  82  67  79 /  40  20  60  90  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>120-129>133.


&&

$$

75/75




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.