Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 170014
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
714 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017


.AVIATION...
Other than a few lingering showers through sunset, quiet weather
is expected at all TAF sites overnight with scattered mid and high
clouds and a light east to southeast wind.

A ridge of high pressure will build eastward into the Central and
Southern Plains on Monday and result in increased subsidence,
fewer clouds and lower rain chances across North Texas. An
isolated storm is still not out of the question, mainly in Waco,
but confidence is too low to mention in this forecast.

An east to southeast wind will continue on Monday at speeds
generally less than 10 kts.

79

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/
It has been another hot afternoon across the region with
temperatures in the 90s area wide. The only relief has come from
scattered showers and thunderstorms. There have been two main
areas of showers and thunderstorms. One area has been southeast of
a Killeen to Dallas to Sulphur Springs area. These thunderstorms
formed in an area of higher Precipitable Water values and also
enhanced some by some outflow from a thunderstorm complex that
died as it moved into our southeastern zones this morning. The
other area of showers and thunderstorms has been west of a
Gainesville to Mineral Wells to Goldthwaite line. Mid level
moisture/clouds and instability were noted this this morning on
satellite imagery. All of this activity is expected to diminish as
sunset approaches and dry weather is expected overnight. Lows
will be in the 70s across most of the area, but a few spots will
see some upper 60s.

The coming week will be hot as an upper level ridge currently
centered to our northwest builds east across the Central Plains.
As this occurs, rain chances will shift to south of I-20 Monday
afternoon and early evening. Highs will be mostly in the 90s and
lows will be in the 70s. Any showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday will be across the southeastern part of the forecast
area from sea breeze activity. Highs will be in the mid 90s to
around 100 degrees. Heat index values will be close to Heat
Advisory criterion of 105 degrees along and east of the I-35
corridor Tuesday and Wednesday.

An extended hot period is expected Thursday through next weekend.
Highs will be in the mid 90s to 103 degrees and lows will be in
the 70s to around 80. Heat index values will be in the 100 to 110
degree range.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  97  77  97  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
Waco                74  96  75  97  76 /  20  20  10  20   5
Paris               73  95  73  95  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
Denton              74  95  75  97  76 /  10  10   0   5   5
McKinney            74  95  74  96  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
Dallas              78  97  78  97  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
Terrell             75  95  74  95  75 /  20  10  10  10   5
Corsicana           75  94  75  96  76 /  20  20  10  20   5
Temple              73  96  74  96  75 /  20  30  20  20   5
Mineral Wells       72  96  73  96  74 /  20  10   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25



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