Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 010851
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TODAY WILL
RESIDE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL SEE
SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS FAIRLY LOW OVERALL...BUT IF ANY STORM WERE TO
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IT WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AND COOL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AS DEPTH OF THE DRY/COOL AIR INCREASES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COUPLED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A COOL
DAY FOR EARLY MAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST ON SATURDAY
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER STORM
CHANCES EXPECTED BY NEXT SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LOW COULD REMAIN CUT OFF WEST OF THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF
MAY.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. A SWATH OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY MANAGE TO MOVE INTO THE WACO AREA AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZING AS FAR NORTH AS WACO.

WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS EXPECTED. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH A MENTION OF VCSH IN
THE EXTENDED DFW TAF AS WELL AS THE WACO TAF WHERE SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE DFW AREA SITES. THUNDER IS MORE
LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND MAY NEED TO SHOW VCTS AT WACO IN FUTURE
TAF ISSUANCES. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO FORM NORTH OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE CLOSER TO THE DFW AREA SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED.

DEPENDING ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING IF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST AND NOT INCLUDE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS IN THE EXTENDED DFW
TAF AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ANY RAIN AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

STALLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    75  55  71  52  74 /   5  50  30   5   5
WACO                76  56  71  52  74 /  20  50  50  10   5
PARIS               75  53  69  51  71 /   5  50  20   5   5
DENTON              72  51  70  49  73 /   5  50  30   5   5
MCKINNEY            74  53  70  50  72 /   5  50  30   5   5
DALLAS              76  56  72  53  74 /   5  50  30   5   5
TERRELL             77  56  72  52  73 /  10  50  40  10   5
CORSICANA           78  58  73  53  73 /  20  50  50  10   5
TEMPLE              78  58  69  53  73 /  20  50  50  20   5
MINERAL WELLS       72  49  68  48  74 /  10  50  30   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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