Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 020810
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
MOISTURE AND WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS EVEN POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE HOT AND GENERALLY
RAIN-FREE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE
70S.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE RED RIVER. THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
BOTH BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
THE ECWMF SOLUTION KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND BRINGS SOME DECENT RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE
GFS KEEPS NORTH TEXAS MORE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND HAS MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1130 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS AND A
TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BRING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TAF
SITES. THE WACO AREA MAY BE THE EXCEPTION...BUT PROBABILITIES OF
CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE KACT TAF AT THIS TIME.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME
MOISTURE AT 925MB SURGING INTO THE WACO AREA AFTER SUNRISE...SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR CIGS AT KACT 13-15Z. IT
LOOKS LIKE CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT BEFORE REACHING THE DFW AREA.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  75  96  77  96 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              95  72  95  74  97 /  10  10  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             94  70  95  72  94 /  10   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            94  73  94  74  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  72  95  74  96 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  96  77  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  95  75  97 /  10   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  70  94  72  95 /  20  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  70  95  72  97 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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