Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 180438
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 00Z
TAFS...THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAS BEEN APPENDED BELOW.

CAVANAUGH

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
/ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT DFW AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO WATCH OUT FOR. THE WACO AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE DFW AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MORE OR LESS CLEARED OUT OF THE
DFW AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE WACO AREA THOUGH IS ABOUT
TO MOVE BACK UNDER AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT THAT THIS LIGHT RAIN WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND THE TAF BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AS PROVIDING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MID-LEVEL ZONE OF LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE HILL COUNTRY BACK OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE WACO AREA AROUND NOON TOMORROW. FOR NOW JUST
PUT A CHANGE GROUP IN TO SHOW SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST AT 7000 FT
AGL DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL LIFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AIR LIFTED FROM THE 7000 FT AGL
LEVEL WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA.

CAVANAUGH




&&

.UPDATE...
LOWERING POPS IN THE EAST TO 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT SINCE THE MCV IS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA NOW AND THE GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/
THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE METROPLEX REGION CONTINUES TO
WANE AS SUNSHINE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON ALL SIDES OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS RESULTED IN A COLD POOL THAT IS SPREADING
OUTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTION CREATES A CIRCULATION THAT
IS SUBSIDENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COMPLEX AND PROMOTES LIFTING
AROUND THE OUTER EDGES WHERE THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDS
IN LIFTING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF WACO AND
WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE SUNNY AREAS OF THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT CONVERGENCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE COLD POOL
BOUNDARY IS NOTABLY WEAKER. ACROSS THE METROPLEX THE LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN FROM RESIDUAL STORM ANVILS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
WITH A RATHER QUIET EVENING EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS RESIDES.

THE PARENT MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR PARIS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP E/SE
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH THIS EVENT...AND
IT GENERALLY FORECASTS THIS REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR PRIMARILY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS...WHERE MASS FIELDS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG A TEXARKANA TO WACO
TO SAN ANGELO LINE...THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO
BACK BUILD WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
WHAT THE 3KM TTU WRF IS INDICATING. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50 PERCENT AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS...IT SHOULD STAY QUIET WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
THAT HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT TOMORROW
AND THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED. BUT BECAUSE OF
STRONG HEATING AND REASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE...A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
THEN SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD STAY THERE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              77  98  75  98  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          71  96  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /  30  30  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  98  74 /  30  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  98  73  99  73 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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