Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 211734 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will continue to prevail for the next 24-30 hours.
Generally south winds will continue this afternoon but the winds
will shift to the southwest Friday morning for a few hours. Wind
speeds are expected to remain less than 10 kts with FEW-SCT
cumulus clouds during the afternoon hours. Any convection this
afternoon and Friday afternoon is expected to remain well east of
the TAF sites across Louisiana and portions of East Texas.

JLDunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/
A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will remain anchored over
the central and southern high plains through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend. Mid level heights will reach as high
as 598 decameters which indicates subsidence will be strong across
North-Central Texas, despite moisture trapped within the ridge as
shown by morning water vapor satellite imagery. Any scattered
convection will likely remain deflected to the north, east, and
south of the CWA. High temperatures through Saturday will
continue to hover around the century mark across much of the
forecast area. Very spotty heat index values to around 105 degrees
are expected across the eastern half of the CWA each afternoon.
These areas contain more vegetation and trees which release
moisture through a process known as transpiration. Transpiration
is the evaporation of moisture contained in plants and trees and
this process will will hold afternoon humidity values up a little
higher across the east. That said, it does not appear critically
high heat index values of 105 degrees or higher will be realized
across enough of the area for the issuance of a heat advisory
this morning for our eastern counties.

A couple of strong shortwave disturbances will move east across
the northern rockies/plains, Great Lakes, and over the Ohio Valley
into New England by early next week. These systems will help to
weaken the upper high over the top of the Southern Plains and
eventually shift the center further west over the Great Basin by
mid to late next week. With ample tropical moisture contained
within the deep easterly flow component south of the high pressure
center and weaker subsidence, we have maintained diurnal low
rain chances for next week.

Afternoon high temperatures next week will be closer to climatological
normals in the mid to upper 90s. Combined with the mid summer humidity,
heat index values will rise to between 100 to 105 degrees each
afternoon. Again, heat index values should remain just below heat
advisory values which are defined as being between 105 to 110
degrees. Regardless of whether we hit advisory criteria or not,
people working outdoors or out for recreational purposes should
try to avoid being out in the heat and humidity for prolonged
periods of time. Always stay hydrated, take frequent breaks
indoors or in the shade, and avoid any overexertion when
outdoors.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  79 100  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco               102  77 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris              101  76 100  78  99 /   5   0  10   5  10
Denton              99  75 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            98  76  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas             101  79 100  81 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell            100  76  99  77  99 /   5   0   5   5  10
Corsicana           99  77  99  78  99 /   5   0   5   5   5
Temple             100  75  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells      101  74 100  74 101 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

82


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