Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 170535
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1135 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017


.AVIATION...
Strong low level return flow is becoming established across the
forecast area ahead of a developing frontal system over the
Plains and an upper trough over the west and northwest U.S.
VAD winds from KFWS RADAR indicate 40KT at 2000 FT, which should
bring a rapid increase in MVFR CIGs. Higher-end MVFR is already
developing in the DFW Metroplex, but a lower deck of stratus over
Central TX can be seen racing north on IR fog imagery. These lower
cigs should reach KACT in another hour or so and then the DFW
airports by 09Z.

Conditions will improve late Friday morning as stronger south
winds mix to the surface. Surface winds will be gusting to 25 KT
beginning around midday Friday, and conditions will remain breezy
Friday night. A strong cold front will push through the Metroplex
Saturday morning, but at this time it appears that FROPA will be
after the extended portion of the DFW TAF.

30

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 934 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/
Slightly cooler air is lingering along the Red River where the
remnants of today`s warm front was located this evening. A quick
update was done to lower low temperatures by a couple of degrees
across the northern row of counties where a few sites were already
below their forecast lows. Strengthening warm advection should
keep temperatures nearly steady across the area for the rest of
the night. Some light fog will be possible now through the
overnight hours, but southeast winds and a developing low cloud
deck should keep visibility reductions minor.

30

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 316 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/
/Tonight through Friday/

A frontal boundary that became stationary across Central Texas
overnight last night is already starting to lift back to the north
as a warm front this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon
remain in the 60s to around 70 degrees where skies remained
overcast and rose into the mid 70s to around 80 degrees elsewhere.

As a lee side trough deepens, the front will lift to the north of
the Red River overnight tonight. Lows will be upper 50s to mid
60s. Southerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph Friday with
some higher gusts as the lee side trough deepens further. There
will be low clouds in the morning area wide, and skies will become
partly sunny along and west of I-35 during the afternoon.
Temperatures will be well above seasonal normal with upper 70s to
mid 80s expected.


58

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 316 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/
/Saturday Onward/

The longer range forecast will feature the passage of multiple
cold fronts through the next 7-10 days which will keep
temperatures hovering near normal while bringing some low rain
chances. The first cold front expected to arrive Saturday morning
will be the strongest of the bunch. Driven by a strong, fast-
moving shortwave, this front will quickly plow through the
forecast area in a span of less than 6 hours Saturday morning.
North winds will be gusty (as much as 30-40 mph) in wake of the
cold frontal passage and we`ll need to assess the necessity of a
Wind Advisory in future forecasts. Limited moisture along and
ahead of the front will limit the rain chances to our southeastern
counties through the morning hours. The arrival of dry air behind
the front would quickly shut down any precipitation. Have stuck
to cooler guidance for Saturday`s temperatures as strong cold
advection should continue through the day, offsetting diabatic
heating. By Saturday night and Sunday morning, winds will be on
the decrease, and temperatures should plummet with dry air and
clearing skies in place. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some areas
in our northwestern zones fall to near or below freezing by Sunday
morning.

After a cool and dry Sunday, winds will return to the south by
the evening. This will lead to a gradual warming trend to begin
the week with temperatures rebounding to near normal on Monday.
This will be short-lived however, as another sharp upper trough
digs southward through the Plains while pulling another cold front
through the region. There are some substantial differences
between the GFS and ECMWF as well as ensemble members regarding
the depth and speed of this trough. The GFS is maintaining a
progressive solution with the energy well to the north of our
forecast area. However, the latest ECMWF is advertising a southern
solution with a deeper cutoff low that would be capable of
bringing better rain chances to the area. Have introduced some
low Pops mostly near/east of I-35 Tuesday and Tuesday night to
account for this potentially more southern track. Regardless of
precipitation potential, the cold front should clear the forecast
area by late Tuesday causing a fairly small temperature drop of
5-10 degrees.

Temperatures through the remainder of the week should slowly
moderate and continue to hover within a few degrees of seasonal
normals. Thanksgiving Day currently looks pleasant and dry with
highs mostly in the 60s. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that
the active weather pattern will continue with another deep trough
developing towards the end of next week and another cold frontal
passage in the day 8-9 time frame.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  83  62  67  41 /  20  10  10   5   0
Waco                65  83  65  71  37 /  10  10  10  10   0
Paris               59  77  62  67  36 /  20  20  10  20   0
Denton              63  82  60  65  34 /  20  10   5   5   0
McKinney            63  81  61  66  36 /  20  10  10  10   0
Dallas              66  82  63  69  42 /  20  10  10   5   0
Terrell             65  81  63  69  38 /  20  10  10  10   0
Corsicana           66  81  64  71  41 /  20  10  10  20   0
Temple              65  83  65  72  39 /  10  10  10  10   0
Mineral Wells       62  84  58  65  34 /  10   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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