Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 150014 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
614 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

Quiet conditions are expected tonight with no aviation concerns
expected. South-southeast winds around 10 knots or less will
continue with VFR conditions underneath northwest flow aloft
continuing through 12z Monday. Challenges increase on Monday with
low cigs arriving after sunrise, then with timing the cold FROPA
and precipitation development mid afternoon Monday and beyond.

MVFR cigs will surge north from the Hill County and over Waco
Regional shortly after 12z Monday, with a brief potential for IFR
cigs through 15z. These cigs should arrive northward to the I-20
corridor and DFW Metro airports by, or shortly after 18z. Up until
cold FROPA arrives into the I-20 corridor and DFW area between
20z-22z, enough near surface warming may occur for brief low VFR
cigs BLO FL040 before cold FROPA. Cold FROPA will arrive a few
hours later at Waco Regional, or between 23z-00z. North-northeast
winds 10-15 knots will occur initially post FROPA, then back
northerly at 15-25 knots once strong cold advection arrives and
the frontal inversion deepens after 00z Tuesday.

A strong cold front was currently moving into the Central Plains
and through the Midwest. As noted above, this cold front arrives
in the mid-late afternoon period Monday for our region. The tricky
part of the extended forecast is timing any light developing
precipitation and any conversion over to a wintry mixture as the
vertical thermal profile cools Monday evening. Better frontogenetical
and isentropic ascent above the boundary layer will be delayed a
good 3-6 hours after the cold front. All precipitation should be
in the form of a cold -RA at all sites through 00z Tuesday, as we
await the stronger cold advection underneath the deepening inversion.
In addition, sub freezing surface temperatures will likely hold
off til mid-evening and after. As such, I have remained conservative
with the 24-30 hour forecast at DFW with low confidence on how all
these processes evolve. I have added a 02z Tuesday period with a
light -RA/SN mix and MVFR cigs above FL020 for and until better
confidence on transitioning thermal profiles and precipitation
development become more clear as we move into Monday night.

05/

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 330 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018/
/Tonight and Monday/
Southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph will continue overnight and bring
Gulf moisture northward. While dewpoints will be slow to rise
overnight, low stratus should announce the presence of the
moisture in the southwestern zones by daybreak. These clouds will
spread northeast through the day and encompass most of the region
by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures tonight will be cool, but
not as cool as the previous nights with lows in the 30s.

The much advertised cold front will reach the Red River by late
morning and continue to move south into the region during the
afternoon hours. High temperatures are tricky due to timing the
cold front and the cloud cover forecast, but in general have
lowered these values from previous forecasts based on an earlier
arrival of the front. Highs will likely be in the mid 40s along
the Red River ranging to the low 60s in the southern zones.

The front will not barrel through like the last one, and the
north winds will gradually increase after its passage.
Temperatures will begin to fall behind the front but should remain
above freezing over the whole CWA through the afternoon. Weak
isentropic ascent will set up and some light showers are expected
along and behind the front, but the chance of measurable rain
through 6 pm is fairly low so have kept just a stripe of 20 pops
along the I-20 corridor.

TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018/
/Monday night through Sunday/
The Arctic cold front will move quickly through all of North
Texas Monday night as a deep upper low moves from Northern Plains
to the Great Lakes. Very light precipitation is expected to
develop along and behind the front due to increasing isentropic
upglide. The best moisture will be confined to Central and South
Texas with meager available moisture across North Texas. Several
of the models, including some high res solutions are now showing
that precip will be extremely light to almost non-existent in the
cold air near the Red River. We still feel that much of North
Texas will see some light precipitation that will begin as light
rain early Monday evening with a very brief period of light
freezing rain as the surface temperatures fall below freezing. The
depth of the cold air will increase steadily through the night
which will result in a quick change over to light snow in areas
that do see precip. As the depth of the cold air increases, dry
air will also quickly filter in which will end the precipitation
from north to south overnight. Even though confidence is growing
that precipitation across the northern half of the region will be
extremely light, we still anticipate some travel impacts near the
I-20 corridor, so we will be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for
light freezing rain and light sleet/snow generally along and
south of a line from Bonham to Grapevine to Breckenridge from 6 pm
Monday through noon Tuesday. We have left locations north of this
line out of the Advisory since the current thinking is that
impacts will be very low to none at all. Of course, we will
continue to watch how things evolve over the next 24 hours and
adjust the Advisory as necessary.

Farther south, accumulations will be a bit higher due to better
available moisture and a longer duration of moist ascent over the
front. Even though we may not actually reach Winter Storm Warning
criteria, impacts could be significant due to the very cold
temperatures expected. Therefore, we will issue a Winter Storm
Watch for locations along and south of a line from Sulphur Spring
to Hillsboro to Goldthwaite from Late Monday evening through
Tuesday afternoon. The precipitation trends will be similar in the
Winter Storm Watch area with light rain briefly changing over to
light freezing rain followed by a brief mix of sleet and snow and
then all light snow. The light snow should end from northwest to
southeast during the morning hours Tuesday once the dry and
subsident air moves in on the back side of the departing upper
trough. Since the period of freezing rain will be very brief,
accumulations will be less than 1/10th of an inch. Snow
accumulations will be up to 1 inch on average with some amounts
up to 2 inches possible.

Temperatures Monday night will drop steadily with freezing
temperatures expected along the Red River just after sunset, the
I-20 corridor around mid evening, and remainder of the CWA by
midnight. Gusty north winds between 10 and 20 mph Monday night
will result in wind chills in the teens. Temperatures Tuesday
will not warm much with 20s and lower 30s across the board. Skies
will clear Tuesday night and wind speeds will decrease which will
allow temperatures to fall mainly into the teens. We should
briefly warm above freezing on Wednesday but increasing clouds
ahead of an approaching shortwave will keep the warming to a
minimum. Since temperatures are expected to remain
below freezing through Wednesday morning, any winter precipitation
that falls and icy roads that develop Monday night/Tuesday will
likely not improve until Wednesday afternoon.

The shortwave is progged to track across Central Texas on Thursday
and may result in some light precip. There is a low chance of a
light rain/light sleet mix across the southern zones as this cold
core system translates east. However, moisture will be limited and
surface temperatures will be above freezing so no impacts are
anticipated.

Low level moisture will return to the region on Friday and
Saturday ahead of another developing low pressure system across
the western states. Low level warm/moist advection will bring
increasing clouds and warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s
Friday and 60s Saturday with lows Saturday morning in the 40s. The
upper low will track across the state Saturday night through
Sunday and bring a chance of showers, mainly to the eastern half
of the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    36  54  24  29  16 /   0  20  50  20   0
Waco                35  57  26  30  17 /   0  10  80  40   5
Paris               31  49  19  27  12 /   0  20  50  20   0
Denton              33  51  21  29  12 /   0  20  40  20   0
McKinney            32  51  22  28  12 /   0  20  50  20   0
Dallas              36  54  24  29  17 /   0  20  50  30   0
Terrell             32  54  23  29  14 /   0  20  50  30   0
Corsicana           35  54  24  30  17 /   0  10  80  40   5
Temple              37  60  25  29  19 /   0  10  80  50  10
Mineral Wells       33  51  21  30  12 /   0  20  40  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
TXZ094-095-104>106-115>120-129>133-141.

Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
afternoon for TXZ107-121>123-134-135-142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

05/26



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