Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 152057
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
357 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017


.DISCUSSION...
Southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper trough over the western
U.S. continues to result in mostly sunny skies and warm conditions
across North Texas. There is some low level moisture in place
across east Texas as evidenced by a more extensive cumulus field,
but moisture across North Texas is quite shallow and has mostly
mixed out. Dewpoints have fallen into the low to mid 60s areawide
with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The weather should remain
quiet through tonight with temperatures falling into the low to
mid 70s. There may be a little more extensive low cloud cover in
the morning as slightly better moisture spreads north overnight.
Similar to today, this morning cloud cover should scatter out
during the late morning hours on Saturday.

On Saturday, a strong shortwave will move into the northern Plains
by afternoon. A cold front will extend from the western Great
Lakes southward into northern Oklahoma. As stronger forcing for
ascent overspreads the Plains, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the cold front. These may extend as far
south as west Texas by late afternoon where persistent low level
warm advection will be in place. All of this activity should
remain north and west of our area. Meanwhile, the center of the
500mb ridge axis will still be located to our southeast, so we`ll
be sandwiched between stronger ridging to the east and troughing
to the west. This will result in warm, but not excessively hot
conditions with highs in the lower 90s. Humidity will be slightly
higher than today.

The pattern into next week will remain similar to the current
pattern with ridging to the east and troughing to the west. This
will keep North Texas in a generally southwest flow aloft with the
best upper forcing remaining to the west of the area. We`ll
maintain some low PoPs through the week, primarily Wednesday
through Friday. The main challenge in the extended forecast will
be the handling of some tropical moisture that moves into western
Mexico on Tuesday. The GFS continues to remain most aggressive
through the end of next week with streaming deep moisture across
Texas. This combined with sufficient low level moisture, results
in high rain chances across North Texas as the remnant upper
trough spreads over the region. For now, given the uncertainty in
this scenario, we`ll maintain low PoPs and continue to monitor.
Otherwise, temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal
through the middle of next week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1255 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/
/18Z TAFs/

South flow will prevail with morning MVFR stratus.

Although the stratus this morning was along a rather narrow
corridor, it impacted all of our TAF sites. The moisture was very
thin, and vertical mixing cleared the skies by late morning. The
CU field across Southeast Texas shows that better quality moisture
isn`t far, and with a similar nocturnal low-level jet tonight, a
more widespread stratus intrusion is likely Saturday morning.
A second day of stratus might suggest a deeper layer of moisture,
but dry westerly flow above the boundary layer will result in
similar erosion of the deck before midday.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  93  75  93  74 /   0   0   5   5   5
Waco                72  94  71  94  73 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               68  91  69  92  70 /   0   0   5   5   5
Denton              73  93  71  93  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
McKinney            72  92  71  92  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
Dallas              75  93  75  94  75 /   0   0   5   5   5
Terrell             71  94  68  94  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
Corsicana           71  92  71  92  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
Temple              71  92  69  92  72 /   0   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       72  94  70  93  70 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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