Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 020447 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY.

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS PREVAILING BETWEEN 8-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE DFW AIRPORTS INCREASES FRIDAY MORNING.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNSET.
EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BESIDES REMOVING THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT/SKY TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /  10   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /  10  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /  10   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /  10   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /  10   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /  10   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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