Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 210841
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
341 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The heat will continue today as upper level high pressure remains
centered over the region. High temperatures should be a couple of
degrees cooler than yesterday due to a slight weakening in the
ridge. Heat index values will also be a bit lower as dry air works
in from the east. Expect afternoon highs in the middle and upper
90s with heat index values only a few degrees warmer. The dry air
and large scale subsidence should keep storms from developing
today.

The weather Thursday will be very similar to today but maybe a
degree or two cooler. However, changes will begin to take place
Thursday night through Friday as low level moisture increases in
response to a developing low pressure system across Central
Rockies. The increase in moisture coupled with increasing large
scale upward vertical motion from the approaching system will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. The
storms will be largely heat driven and should dissipate after
sunset Friday.

The upper level trough will move east across the Rockies on
Saturday which will bring increasing large scale upward vertical
motion. Moisture will also deepen across the region with
precipitable water values approaching 2 inches in some locations.
Therefore, we expect increasing thunderstorm chances Saturday and
Saturday night with a potential for some locally heavy rainfall.
The best chance for precipitation should be on Sunday with the
arrival of a cold front. The extended models continue to advertise
a piece of upper level energy breaking off from the main trough
and remaining west of the region through at least Monday. If this
solution verifies it will result in post-frontal rain to start
the work week and decreasing rain chances from west to east on
Tuesday with the passage of the upper trough axis. Once the upper
trough passes, North and Central Texas will be dry and cool with
temperatures well below seasonal normals as we head into the
middle of next week.


79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1208 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/
VFR conditions will prevail with light southeast winds. Expect
daytime CU underneath a few high clouds.

Unseasonably strong ridging aloft has so far been unable to
completely stifle afternoon convection. With temperatures touching
the century mark, the surface instability at peak heating yields
upward vertical velocities on the meso-gamma scale at least a
couple orders of magnitude greater than the synoptic-scale
downward motion within the mid-levels. The result has been
isolated showers and storms. As drier boundary layer air works
into the region, this should become increasingly less likely in
subsequent days.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  73  95  75  93 /   0   0   0   5  10
Waco                96  70  95  74  93 /   0   0   5  10  20
Paris               93  67  92  70  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
Denton              95  69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            95  68  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas              97  73  95  76  94 /   0   0   0   5  10
Terrell             95  69  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   5  10
Corsicana           95  71  94  74  93 /   0   0   5  10  20
Temple              96  70  94  73  93 /   0   0   5  10  30
Mineral Wells       95  68  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

30/79



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