Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 212057
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
257 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH TOWARD
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHERE BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-35 TODAY...HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BETTER INSTABILITY WAS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 850MB INCREASES TO OVER 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE AND
CORRESPOND WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES SATURATING THROUGH 700MB AND ERODING THE CAPPING
INVERSION ENTIRELY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MORNING...SO
WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS THIS AREA LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PERIODS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80-100
KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM AND RICHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND
ONLY A THIN AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AXIS OF RICHER SURFACE DEW
PTS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES. WE CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVE ACROSS AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAT MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE
PROLONGED EVENT VERSUS AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT GOING TO
ADVERTISE ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AS MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT WE DO
EXPECT ARE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
GRADUALLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUCCESSIVE REINFORCING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING...
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONTINUING LIFR-LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS UNFORTUNATELY LOW IN THE TIMING
AND SOME OF THE TRENDS MAKING THIS A DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CIGS AND VSBY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGH-END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE BACK INTO LIFR CATEGORY. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT THE EVOLUTION AND
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THINK KACT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SHOWERS AS THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL MENTION VCSH FROM
22/03-22/10Z AT KACT BUT THE WINDOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE SMALLER.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORTS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A VCSH MENTION AFTER 10Z
AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...BUT THINK THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND CONTINUOUS AT THE DFW AIRPORTS BY MIDDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KACT`S BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST BEYOND THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS AND SOME OF THE STORMS NEAR KACT COULD REACH
SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  65  54  72  44 /  60 100  80   5  10
WACO, TX              63  68  52  75  44 /  40 100  90   0   0
PARIS, TX             55  65  55  69  42 /  60 100 100  10  10
DENTON, TX            60  64  48  71  41 /  70 100  70  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  63  49  70  41 /  60 100  90  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  66  55  72  45 /  50 100  90   5  10
TERRELL, TX           60  66  52  72  43 /  40 100 100  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  69  55  74  45 /  30 100 100   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            63  69  52  76  43 /  40 100  90   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  66  46  71  40 /  70 100  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.