Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 160253 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
953 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.UPDATE...
The diurnal activity across North and Central Texas has come to an
end, but showers and thunderstorms remain upstream. Some of these
cells may slip into northern portions of the CWA into the early
morning hours.

The complex in western Oklahoma will likely dissipate as the
impulse responsible for its initiation outruns it. However, this
disturbance may result in renewed development across North and
Central Texas early Sunday morning. The coverage should be
isolated at best with lightning the primary concern.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 734 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/
Showers and thunderstorms that were scattered across North Texas
this afternoon had dissipated as of 00Z. The remainder of the
night should be quiet with VFR and scattered to broken high
clouds.

We are watching the convection currently across western
Oklahoma. This activity should weaken as it approaches the
Metroplex TAF sites overnight as per HRRR and TTU WRF solutions.
There will be an outside chance of a shower across the Metroplex
TAF sites toward sunrise Sunday, but impacts should be minimal.

Sunday will be VFR with scattered daytime CU and a few afternoon
showers and isolated storms in the late afternoon.

An east to southeast will prevail at speeds generally less than 10
knots.

79

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/
Showers and thunderstorms have been most numerous this afternoon
across Central Texas and the southeastern part of North Texas.
This is the area that was south of this morning`s outflow
boundary. A few strong storms have produced wind gusts in excess
of 40 mph. Rainfall rates are high as you would expect with nearly
2 inch Precipitable Water Values. Fortunately the storms are
moving at around 15 mph but some training may still result in
localized flooding issues. Other thunderstorms occurred west of a
Hillsboro to Jacksboro line in the untapped air there and also
across areas east of a Sherman to Athens line where the remnants
of some of this morning`s activity refused to die. There was quite
a variation in temperatures with mid to upper 80s across areas
north and northeast of the Metroplex and mid to upper 90s across
parts of Central Texas before the storms hit. A weak shortwave
will continue to move around the eastern periphery the upper
level high centered to our northwest but with the loss of daytime
heating, expect most of the showers and thunderstorms to decrease
in areal coverage toward sunset. Cannot completely rule out
additional showers and thunderstorms overnight, so have left some
20 percent PoPs for the late evening through the overnight hours
area wide. Lows will be in the 70s.

With the upper ridge remaining to our northwest on Sunday, we
will keep at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
with the best chances (30 percent PoPs) being southeast of a
Goldthwaite to Waxahachie to Paris line. Highs will be in the 90s
area wide with heat index values reaching 98 to 107 degrees.

The ridge will build eastward across Kansas and Oklahoma during
the early part of the week and the strengthen its grip on North
and Central Texas during the middle to late part of next week.
This will result hot weather with chances of showers and
thunderstorms shifting southward. We will be near heat advisory
criteria especially along and east of the I-35 corridor.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  96  77  97  77 /  20  20  10  20  10
Waco                74  97  75  96  75 /  20  30  20  30  20
Paris               75  94  73  93  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
Denton              75  95  74  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
McKinney            74  95  74  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
Dallas              78  97  78  97  77 /  20  20  10  20  10
Terrell             75  95  74  95  75 /  20  30  10  20  10
Corsicana           75  96  74  95  74 /  20  30  20  30  20
Temple              73  96  74  96  74 /  20  40  20  30  30
Mineral Wells       75  95  73  96  73 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/79



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