Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 302154
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WET WEEKEND IS STILL IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
A HEAVY WASHOUT - OR MAJOR LAKE LEVEL ASSISTANCE - IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER TEXAS TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...PLACING OUR REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY INITIALLY BE RATHER DRY...BUT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING STEADILY...EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND OVER MOST AREAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HIGHER POPS WILL PERSIST IN THESE AREAS SAT
NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LINGERING IN THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST NEAR BAJA CA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE TO N TX AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO APPRECIABLE CAPE TO WORK WITH...DON`T EXPECT ANY THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING THE RAINFALL THROUGH SUN. QPF AMOUNTS IN FACT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
LACK OF MAJOR CONVECTION OR STRONG LIFT. WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO PICK UP LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.

WE`LL SEE A RESPITE FROM ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK...BUT THE UPPER LOW (AND ASSOCIATED LIFT) TO OUR SW
WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD AND SKIRT CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUE
THROUGH WED. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SMALL
POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES TUE AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RE-ASSERTING ITSELF...THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

66

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...GRADUALLY DESCENDING CEILINGS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT BEGINS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DFW/DAL ALREADY IN SOUTH FLOW.

MOIST UPPER FLOW IS STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS TEXAS...
STEADILY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AS A STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AS EARLY AS
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. AS THESE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES ALOFT
MOISTEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2 MILES OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. BY MID-AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...
WITH CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND ACCOMPANYING IFR CIGS/VSBY...WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE 18Z
TAFS.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  52  48  54  29 /  10  60  90  60  10
WACO, TX              42  54  51  58  32 /  10  60  80  70  10
PARIS, TX             38  51  44  53  27 /  10  40  90  70  10
DENTON, TX            41  49  45  53  28 /  20  70  90  60  10
MCKINNEY, TX          39  51  46  54  28 /  10  60  90  60  10
DALLAS, TX            42  52  48  55  30 /  10  60  90  60  10
TERRELL, TX           40  54  49  57  30 /  10  50  90  70  10
CORSICANA, TX         41  55  51  60  31 /  10  50  80  70  10
TEMPLE, TX            42  55  52  60  33 /  10  60  70  70  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     41  49  46  52  28 /  20  90  80  50  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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