Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 130417
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017


.AVIATION...
Subsidence associated with an upper level ridge will keep things
hot and dry for the next few days with few aviation weather
concerns. We will keep an eye on a possible stratus deck which
may work its way northward during he overnight hours, but cloud
bases should remain high enough that any CIGs which develop would
be VFR. Otherwise, winds will remain southerly at 8 to 10 KT and
conditions are expected to remain VFR areawide for the duration of
the forecast.

30

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 344 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017/
/Tonight and Friday/

Temperatures rose into the 80s area wide this afternoon under
mostly sunny skies. Winds have been south to southeast at 5 to 10
mph with some gusts to over 15 mph across the west.

Expect mostly clear skies tonight with southeast winds in the 5 to
10 mph range. Temperatures will continue to moderate with
overnight lows about 10 degrees higher than they were this
morning.

The warm-up will continue Friday as an upper level ridge
centered to our southeast continues to dominate our weather.
It will be warm and dry. Highs will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s with southeast winds 5 to 15 mph.

58

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 344 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017/
/Friday night through Thursday/

Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue Friday night and
Saturday. Lows will be in the mid 60s to around 70 and highs will
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As the pressure gradient
tightens Saturday, winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph with some
gusts up to 25 mph possible.

The upper level ridge will start to break down Saturday and
Saturday night as a trough moves east from the Rockies into the
Central Plains. This will allow a cold front to move southeast
down the Plains into the northwestern part of North Texas by
midnight Saturday night. This front will sweep through the
southeastern zones before midday Sunday. Winds will shift to the
north at 10 to 20 mph with the frontal passage and some gusts to
25 mph will be possible.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms spread across all but the
southeastern zones Saturday night as the front approaches. Rain
chances will end across most areas along and north of the
I-20/I-30 corridors Sunday afternoon as the front moves deeper
into South Texas. Severe weather is not expected and rainfall
amounts will average less than 1/4 inch.

Dry weather is then expected from Sunday night through Wednesday.
We will have slightly below seasonal normal temperatures Sunday
night through Tuesday and temperatures will start to moderate
Wednesday as southeasterly surface winds return.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  91  70  91  64 /  10   0   0   0  40
Waco                67  92  68  92  66 /  10   0   0   0  20
Paris               64  88  67  89  63 /  10   0   0   0  30
Denton              67  91  69  91  61 /  10   0   0   0  50
McKinney            67  89  68  91  62 /  10   0   0   0  40
Dallas              70  91  70  91  64 /  10   0   0   0  40
Terrell             68  91  68  92  65 /  10   0   0   0  30
Corsicana           68  89  68  91  66 /  10   0   0   0  20
Temple              67  91  68  90  66 /  10   0   0   5  20
Mineral Wells       66  91  68  91  60 /  10   0   0   0  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/91



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