Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 011823
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
123 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AT THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES.

WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE SOUTHEAST
OF A KGTU TO KPSN LINE AT 18Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH AT 15 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
KACT. THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE
21Z-00Z PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED. SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WACO AREA DURING THE 12Z
TO 15Z PERIOD OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE TOO.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/
BROAD RIDING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT THE EXTREME EAST/SOUTHEAST ZONES OF
NORTH TEXAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO
MANAGE TO FORM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WILL DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES
AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. IT APPEARS THAT THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 90S. THE SAVING GRACE WILL BE SOME RELIEF DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN LOWS FALL INTO THE 70S.

THE WARM START TO SEPTEMBER IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR NORTH TEXAS AND
USUALLY LINGERS THROUGH ABOUT THE SECOND OR THIRD WEEK OF THE
MONTH BEFORE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOOKING AT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR
OF ALASKA AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...IT IS OBVIOUS THAT THE
DAYS ARE GETTING SHORTER AND THE COOLER AIR OF FALL IS POISED TO
MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE CONUS BEFORE LONG.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  75  96  76  96 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              95  74  95  73  98 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             93  70  93  71  95 /  20  20  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            94  73  95  74  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  73  94  73  97 /  10  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  95  77  96 /  10  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  94  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         93  73  95  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            94  71  94  71  95 /  20  20  20  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  96  72  97 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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