Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 091717

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1117 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

An amplified upper level pattern will remain in place this
weekend with a deep upper trough across the eastern CONUS and a
ridge across the west. The surface pattern is not much different,
which has resulted in northwest winds across North and Central
Texas. Winds will back to a more westerly direction this evening
as a surface front backdoors its way into the Arklatex area, and
these west winds in the 5 to 10 KT range will continue into
Sunday. Otherwise, the dry weather pattern will persist with VFR
conditions expected through the end of the forecast period.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 249 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

Quiet weather will persist through tonight. A weak cold front
will move through the region this morning, bringing a wind shift
to the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After a cold start with lows in
the 20s and 30s across North and Central Texas, temperatures will
rise into the mid 50s northeast to the lower 60s across Central
Texas this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Northwest winds
around 10 mph at sunset will back around to the west and
southwest during the evening and speeds will decrease to 3 to 5
mph. Lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 249 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017/
/Sunday through Friday/

A precipitation-free pattern is expected through a majority of
the long term forecast period. The dry airmass in place is
expected to facilitate above normal daytime high temperatures with
near or just below normal overnight low temperatures.

Sunday and Monday---Above normal warmth is anticipated on Sunday
as west winds overspread North and Central TX due to broad
troughing to the east and the approach of another frontal boundary
from the north. With the dry airmass in place, temperatures will
easily climb into the 60s and 70s. While winds are expected to be
light, we will have to monitor the fire weather threat as
afternoon humidity is likely to run in the teens and twenties
along with the above normal warmth. Overnight low temperatures are
expected to fall into the 30s and 40s with ideal radiational
cooling conditions. There could be some mid/upper level clouds
that invade from the west and southwest ahead of an upper low
across Baja California. The aformentioned cold front should
progress through at least the northern half of the forecast area
by early Monday evening. With limited moisture, precipitation is
not expected at this time.

Tuesday and Wednesday---Tuesday should be a cooler day as west
winds become northerly after the front clears the southern zones.
At this time I`ll advertise high temperatures in the 50s and 60s,
but we will have to keep an eye on the wind direction as any
backing of surface winds could promote more of a downslope
component and thus higher temperatures than currently forecast.
Wednesday will be warmer (highs in the 60s and 70s) as winds
respond to the persistent troughing to the east. As the flow aloft
becomes increasingly north/northwesterly, mid/upper level cloud
cover should be shunted to the south of the area, leaving mostly
sunny days and mostly clear nights. Overnight conditions should be
somewhat similar to previous days with temperatures in the 30s
and 40s.

Thursday and Friday---Another front will slide through the area
on Thursday, but with the previous frontal intrusions into the
Gulf of Mexico, moisture return northward seems highly unlikely.
I`ll maintain a dry forecast as a result. While post-FROPA
temperatures on Tuesday and Thursday will be comparable, it may
"feel" a little cooler on Thursday as better surface pressure
rises drive a stronger north wind. Similar to previous FROPAs,
north winds will be temporary and succumb to westerly flow
quickly. As a result, temperatures on Friday will climb into the
mid to upper 60s beneath mostly sunny skies.

The start of next weekend looks to be very warm with temperatures
in the upper 60s and low 70s. A stout cold front is forecast to
move southward towards the area by a majority of the deterministic
output during the latter half of the weekend. There are some
timing differences, however. The deterministic ECMWF is a lot more
progressive with the upper trough and associated cold front
compared to the deterministic GFS and Canadian. If the GFS and
Canadian are the verifying models, there could be some rain
chances, especially across eastern and southern zones in the 8 to
10 day forecast.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    57  35  70  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                61  32  68  35  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               54  30  64  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              57  30  69  35  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            55  32  68  35  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              57  36  70  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             58  31  66  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           59  33  66  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              62  32  68  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       59  31  71  34  72 /   0   0   0   0   0




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