Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1144 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

The deck of IFR cigs is eroding and moving east of all TAF sites
as of 1730z leaving clear skies in its wake. VFR conditions will
hold through the TAF period with southwest winds. Wind speeds will
increase this afternoon to around 15-18 kts, but will fall back
below 12 kts this evening. Winds will veer to a more westerly
direction tomorrow around 15 kts but should remain light enough to
preclude crosswind concerns.



Though slower than expected, the low clouds are clearing from the
west late this morning and are still holding in along and east of
I-35/I-35E. This clearing trend will continue as winds become
a little more southwesterly. Have adjusted the hourly temperature
trends to account for a slower departure of the low clouds;
otherwise, no significant changes were made to the previous



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/
Early this morning we have been watching areas of fog, at times
dense fog, develop across the region. Where dense fog has been
reported by automated weather stations, the reduction in
visibilities to a 1/4 mile or less have generally been short lived
with varying degrees of change in visibility. Hi-res guidance,
including the HRRR and CONShort, indicate that areas of dense fog
will occur but gradually shift from west to east through the mid
morning hours. With this overall movement to the dense fog, in
addition to the changes in variability, it is difficult to issue a
Dense Fog Advisory at this time. It appears that the window for
dense fog at any one location will be limited to just a few hour
window, but we will continue to monitor the trends and issue an
Advisory if it appears the dense fog is or will persist in any
certain locations.

An upper level low is currently stalled over the Central Plains,
and a lobe of attached energy is pivoting around the southern end
of the system and through West Texas. This lobe of energy is
already providing lift for showers and thunderstorms across the
Hill Country and Southeast Texas where better moisture resides.
Some of the rain in the Hill Country is on track to move across
our far southern counties and have included a low chance for
showers along and south of a Lampasas to Waco to Palestine line
through the mid morning hours. The upper level trough will pass
through North and Central Texas today, shifting the rain east of
the region this afternoon. In the wake of this departing system,
south and southwest surface winds of 10-15 mph and southwest to
west H925-850 winds will bring warmth back into the region and
afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. As upper level ridging moves over the region tonight,
a warmer night is in store with overnight lows generally in the
mid 40s to mid 50s.

Starting Friday, we will transition aloft to southwest flow as
another disturbance moves northwest from the Desert Southwest into
the Central Plains. On the heels of this system will be a
stronger, developing trough over the western CONUS. Friday is
expected to be a warm day with highs in the 70s and a 10-20 mph
breeze from the southwest. As the west coast trough continues to
advance east, it will induce surface cyclogenesis a little closer
to home. A rapidly deepening surface low will develop over the
Texas Panhandle Saturday afternoon, as the upper level trough
starts to enter the Southern Plains and a 130-140 kt jet streak
starts to impinge on North and Central Texas. The surface winds
will quickly respond by shifting to the south, but then will
quickly shift to the southwest and west as the strong system
continues to move east-southeast. This quick change may not allow
for sufficient moisture return for much precipitation in our area
Saturday afternoon and night when the upper level low and
associated trough move through. We continue to keep a close eye on
this system as the overall pattern could result in severe storms
in our area, but the models continue to keep the best moisture
return and most of the precipitation to our east. Did not make
significant changes to the PoPs on Saturday and Saturday night
with a range from 20% in the west to 40% in our east.

As the surface low tracks along or very near the Red River
Saturday night, it will pull a Pacific front through the region.
Strong and gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front
that will likely meet Wind Advisory criteria. We will have a brief
cool down on Sunday followed by a short-lived warming trend

The next system that will move through the Plains around the
middle of the week will evolve into an elongated positively
tilted trough that remains over much of the CONUS through at least
the end of the work week. This pattern will allow our next true
cold front to sink across the area Tuesday-Wednesday. At this
time, it still looks too dry for any precipitation with this
front, but the models are hinting at the potential for some light
precipitation later in the week or over the weekend. Will keep the
forecast dry next week for now due to differences between the



Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  47  76  52  70 /  10   0  10  10  20
Waco                72  48  76  49  73 /  10   0  10  10  20
Paris               64  50  73  49  67 /  10   5  10  10  30
Denton              70  45  74  49  70 /  10   0  10  10  20
McKinney            67  47  73  50  69 /  10   0  10  10  30
Dallas              71  48  75  53  70 /  10   0  10  10  30
Terrell             68  51  75  52  68 /  10   0  10  10  30
Corsicana           71  52  77  53  68 /  10   0  10  10  40
Temple              72  48  77  53  74 /  10   0  10  10  20
Mineral Wells       72  45  75  48  71 /  10   0  10  10  20




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