Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 202354 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
654 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT GREATER CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE DFW METROPLEX AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH KACT BY 01Z. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SOME SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND KACT BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING AROUND KACT BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER 01Z FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS BUT WILL REMOVE THE PRECIP MENTION AT 21Z.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE METROPLEX
AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL DEVELOP INTO KACT BY 03Z.
THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF IFR BUT WILL KEEP THE CIGS BETWEEN 2-3
KFT UNTIL THE RAIN ENDS AND THEN IMPROVE CIGS TO LOW-END VFR.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
EFFECTIVELY STIFLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. BUT WITH
A COLD FRONT PEELING UP A VERY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY...LIKELY JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. IN THE SUNNIER
PREFRONTAL AIR...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S WITH DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
2000J/KG. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
LIMIT COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES...BUT WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE MID-LEVEL
WINDS...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE UNLIKELY.

THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THE MAIN
PLAYER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN MIDLAND AND SAN ANGELO. THIS
COMPLEX WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WEAK...VERY WARM/MOIST 850MB FLOW WILL ALLOW STRONG UPDRAFTS TO
SURVIVE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BUT AS THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVE EAST...THEY WILL FIND INCREASING LESS FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME OF THE CELLS MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN HAIL...
BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE POSTFRONTAL
LAYER AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS.

WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT...IT SHOULD SPEED UP AFTER DARK...EASILY MOVING THROUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY WILL
REPLACE THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR MANY
DAYS...AND THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

AS SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW GRADUALLY SEEPS NORTH ON THURSDAY...SOME
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL OCCUR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE MODIFYING SURFACE
LAYER INTENSIFIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE SATURDAY AS A MUCH STRONGER
IMPULSE APPROACHES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WIDESPREAD STORMS
WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH PW VALUES SOARING
TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TRAINING STORMS WILL RESULT
IN CONSIDERABLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...SOME STRONG AND SEVERE
STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE EVENT.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE DIVERGES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A BREAK IN THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
BASED ON 117 YEARS OF RECORDS FOR DALLAS/FORT WORTH...THE YEAR-
TO-DATE PRECIPITATION FOR 2015 IS THE 10TH WETTEST ON RECORD.
THROUGH MAY 20...2014 WAS THE 4TH DRIEST ON RECORD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  72  62  76  66 /  50  30  40  50  30
WACO, TX              63  74  64  79  68 /  60  50  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             58  70  57  71  61 /  30  30  30  50  20
DENTON, TX            57  71  60  74  65 /  40  30  40  50  30
MCKINNEY, TX          59  71  59  75  65 /  40  30  30  50  30
DALLAS, TX            60  72  62  77  67 /  50  30  40  50  30
TERRELL, TX           61  73  61  78  66 /  50  30  30  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         63  74  64  78  68 /  50  40  30  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            64  75  65  80  68 /  60  50  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  69  60  76  65 /  50  30  50  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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