National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 191210 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRATUS...GUSTY WINDS...CONVECTION NORTHWEST.

A FINGER OF STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR...RIDING
A 50-KT LLJ. THE LAYER IS RATHER THIN...AND WITH THE VIGOROUS
WINDS FRAGMENTING THE STRATUS...HAVE CHOSEN TO CARRY TEMPO GROUPS
AT ALL SITES. AS THESE WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE MID TO LATE
MORNING...SOME GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35KTS. EXPECT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WELL
WEST/NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE STEERING FLOW WILL HAVE
MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO POSE
GREATER IMPACTS TO NORTHWEST ARRIVALS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

GENERALLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION NORTHWEST. STRATUS MAY
ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER MONDAY MORNING.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE REGION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER THIS MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS
ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY DUE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES TO AT OR ABOVE 30
MPH...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY.

LATER TODAY...STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE WEST OF THE REGION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST TO WITHIN
20-40 MILES OF THE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WOULD BRING ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
CAUSES THE STORMS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN IN TEXAS WITH HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WILL GO
WITH 20 POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF 30 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON MONDAY. POPS WILL BE SIMILAR ON
MONDAY AS TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-20 AND WEST OF I-35.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT OUTFLOW FROM
ONGOING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH...AND THE ADVANCING DRYLINE FROM THE
WEST...SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....ALLOWING RAIN
CHANCES TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST DUE IN LARGE PART TO TIME OF DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY
REPLACED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  72  89  72  89 /  10  20  10  20  40
WACO, TX              92  73  90  73  92 /   5  10   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             89  70  87  70  83 /  10  20  10  40  40
DENTON, TX            92  71  89  70  87 /  10  30  20  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          91  71  88  71  86 /  10  20  10  30  40
DALLAS, TX            92  74  90  74  91 /  10  20  10  20  40
TERRELL, TX           91  71  89  73  90 /   5  20  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         91  72  89  73  91 /   5  10   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            91  73  90  73  92 /   5  10   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  70  92  71  92 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/30