Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 180248 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
948 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Minor update to bump up sky coverage during the overnight hours
into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast
Low level moisture will stream northward again during the
overnight hours as the nocturnal low level jet intensifies.
Widespread stratus should invade from the Hill Country, but due to
the veered low level flow, that stratus will likely be most
prevalent for areas along and south and east of a Cisco to Denton
to Bonham line. Breezy conditions should largely mitigate fog
development, but there is a low probability a few sheltered areas
may experience some reduced visibility. Clouds should break up
during the mid-morning hours as a cold front slides southward
towards the area. The southwest winds ahead of the front will
allow temperatures on Tuesday afternoon to soar into the upper 80s
and low to perhaps even mid-90s across some parts of North and
The remainder of the forecast is on track and updated products
have been sent.
/ISSUED 639 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016/
An upper level disturbance responsible for the convection in
the Upper Midwest will nudge a cold front southward through the
Plains into OK and NW TX. The front should stall before reaching
the North TX TAF sites, so low level winds will remain southerly.
The proximity of the front will loosen the pressure gradient a
little, so wind speeds tonight and Tuesday should be a little
lower than what we saw today. The main issue will be the
development of stratus overnight, which still looks like a good
possibility late tonight over South-Central TX. These clouds will
surge north-northeast overnight, affecting KACT around 10Z and
the Metroplex around 12Z. VFR conditions will return by midday
Tuesday as low clouds scatter.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016/
Hot, breezy and humid sums up the weather across North and Central
Texas for the next couple of days. Afternoon highs through
Wednesday will be mostly in the upper 80s and lower 90s with lows
from the middle 60s to the lower 70s.
Gulf moisture will continue to feed a Central High Plains surface
lee trough. This moisture will remain in place across the region
through Wednesday until a cold front moves through Wednesday night
and Thursday. Surface convergence along the cold front coupled
with large lift provided by a fast moving upper level trough will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the best chances
across the northern half of the region Wednesday night.
Precipitation chances will end from north to south Thursday as the
upper trough moves to the east and dry, subsident air moves in.
Fairly substantial cold air advection is expected Thursday
afternoon with much cooler and windy conditions expected.
Afternoon highs Thursday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the
highs on Wednesday.
A clearing sky, dry air and decreasing wind speeds will result in
a very cool night Thursday into Friday morning with lows from the
middle 40s in the northwest to the middle 50s in the south. Highs
Friday will also be cool and top out in the lower to middle 70s.
A ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Saturday and
remain in place across the entire region through early next week.
This will result in a mostly clear sky and a warming trend. Low
level moisture will also return to the area Sunday and Monday in
response to another developing lee trough across the Central High
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 90 71 90 62 / 0 5 5 10 60
Waco 70 92 70 90 64 / 0 5 5 10 50
Paris 69 89 68 88 61 / 0 5 5 20 50
Denton 69 89 68 89 59 / 0 5 5 10 60
McKinney 70 88 69 87 61 / 0 5 5 10 60
Dallas 72 90 71 89 63 / 0 5 5 10 50
Terrell 70 89 69 88 62 / 0 5 5 10 50
Corsicana 71 90 70 90 64 / 0 5 5 10 50
Temple 69 91 69 90 64 / 0 5 5 10 40
Mineral Wells 67 91 66 89 58 / 0 5 5 10 60