Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
000
FXUS64 KFWD 140037
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
737 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Evening/
The radarscope remains clear this evening as a strong capping
inversion and weak synoptic ascent has kept convective initiation
from occurring along a dryline situated across the Big Country.
The remainder of the night will remain rain-free with another
surge of low stratus expected by early Thursday morning. Areas of
drizzle/mist are likely beneath this cloud deck across portions of
North and Central Texas through Thursday morning. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across far North Texas
into Oklahoma Thursday morning on the nose of warm/moist
advection, but a strong capping inversion will keep more robust
convection from developing until Thursday afternoon.
All eyes then turn toward the potential for severe weather,
including all hazard types, Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night. By Thursday afternoon, a deepening upper-level low will dig
southward over the Desert Southwest. Moderately strong
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Southern Plains ahead
of this feature. A surface low will be shifting toward the NE
Missouri/W Illinois/SE Iowa intersection Thursday afternoon with a
cold front extending southwest into western Oklahoma. Ahead of the
front, a broad warm sector characterized by surface dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s will sprawl across much of North and Central
Texas, primarily east of Highway 281. Despite morning/early
afternoon cloud cover and modest synoptic-scale ascent, strong
destabilization is expected to occur during peak daytime heating.
The current expectation is for the aforementioned capping
inversion to erode by 3-4PM Thursday afternoon with rapid
convective development expected near after across the warm sector.
Current high-resolution guidance is in agreement that convective
initiation will take place near the I-35 corridor generally north
of a Corsicana-Hillsboro-Meridian line and rapidly shift off
toward the east and northeast through the evening. Initial
development will likely be more discrete in nature with ~2500-3000
J/kg MLCAPE, ~40-45 kts of effective bulk shear, and steep mid-
level lapse rates promoting supercellular structures capable of
producing very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a
couple tornadoes. Very large hail will be the main concern with
several forecast sounding analogs highlighting the potential for
2+" hail. South-southeasterly low-level flow may enhance 0-3km
SRH east of I-35 late Thursday afternoon/evening increasing the
tornado threat with any supercell thunderstorms that are able to
remain more discrete. The bulk of this activity should exit to the
east by midnight Friday with additional thunderstorms expected
Friday morning as the cold front pushes into Central Texas.
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 351 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/
/Friday Through the Middle of Next Week/
Unsettled weather will persist through the upcoming weekend but
with more seasonal temperatures. After a brief rain-free period
early next week, another round of spring thunderstorms is expected
during the middle of the upcoming week.
Storms will likely be ongoing Friday morning along an advancing
cold front. Embedded cells may pose a wind threat, but the greater
chance for severe storms will be during the afternoon hours as the
front stalls near our southeastern frontier. Cloud cover and a
rain-cooled boundary layer may temper the threat, but buoyant
warm-sector parcels may still be present at peak heating Friday
afternoon. In addition, parcels riding up the frontal slope
beneath steep lapse rates may yield some postfrontal hail cores.
Downpours in areas that saw similarly intense precipitation on
Thursday may reaggravate flooding issues. The flood concern may
recur Saturday afternoon as another disturbance rides atop the
stalled boundary. Although the greater rain chances will be within
Central Texas both Friday and Saturday, showers and storms will
be possible as far north as the Oklahoma border.
A remarkably persistent cut-off low will remain above the Desert
Southwest early next week. Downstream ridging will begin to take
hold above the Lone Star State on Sunday, steadily reducing rain
chances. The entire region finally dries out Monday and Tuesday.
Seasonally cool temperatures will prevail even after south winds
return on Tuesday. A storm system will invade the Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday, dislodging the rex block in the West and
sending the Desert Southwest low toward the Southern Plains. This
will return storm chances to North and Central Texas during the
middle of the upcoming week.
25
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
VFR conditions will prevail until another surge of MVFR stratus
surges northward later tonight into Thursday morning. MVFR will
approach KACT after ~05Z and the D10 terminals generally after
~07Z. Low cigs will likely persist into at least early Thursday
afternoon. Southerly flow at 10-20 kts will prevail through the
TAF period as well ahead of a cold front expected to push through
the region Thursday night.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the I-35
corridor Thursday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and a
capping inversion erodes. Current forecast initiates deep convection
around 21Z, but it is possible that the cap erodes a bit sooner
and adjustments to VCTS timing will be possible. The environment
will support all modes of severe weather including very large hail
and damaging wind gusts.
Langfeld
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 80 59 69 55 / 10 60 70 70 30
Waco 68 79 63 70 57 / 20 60 60 90 30
Paris 66 81 60 69 52 / 10 70 80 40 30
Denton 64 80 55 67 50 / 10 50 50 60 20
McKinney 66 80 58 69 52 / 10 70 70 60 30
Dallas 68 80 60 69 55 / 10 70 70 70 30
Terrell 66 79 60 70 55 / 10 70 80 70 40
Corsicana 69 81 65 74 58 / 10 60 80 80 40
Temple 67 78 63 74 57 / 20 50 50 90 30
Mineral Wells 63 82 55 67 51 / 10 30 50 70 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$