Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 211758 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1258 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.AVIATION...
18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Cessation of MVFR ceilings this afternoon, VCSH/VCTS
potential and MVFR ceilings on Sunday AM.

For the Metroplex TAF Sites---MVFR ceilings will gradually lift
over the next hour or so. Weak ascent, combined with the
continued low level moisture transport to the north should yield
some scattered convection in the mid to late afternoon hours. I
believe that the best chances for VCSH will be across southern and
western Metroplex TAF sites and have indicated that between 2100
and 0100 UTC. Radar and total lightning trends this morning
revealed that some of the convection immediately to the south and
southeast that has attempted to drift to the north towards the Metroplex
has struggled to produce much lightning and as a result, I think
the thunder potential is low here---especially given the
mitigating factors of the extensive cloud cover. MVFR cigs below
FL020 are expected to invade the Metroplex TAF sites early Sunday
morning. With the large amount of moisture in place, these cigs
may not lift until mid to late afternoon on Sunday. Some guidance
does hint at the potential for IFR ceilings as warm/moist air
continues to lift northward, but confidence is too low to
introduce into the TAFs at this time. Similarly, scattered
convection (showers and storms) will also be possible, but low
confidence precludes mentioning this potential as well.

DFW Extended---Additional restrictions to ceilings will be
possible through the DFW extended with perhaps a continued threat
for convection.

For the Waco TAF Site---Ongoing streamer showers will continue
this afternoon within the warm/moist environment. There may be a
slightly higher potential for TS here, but it appears that a bulk
of the thunderstorms will remain to the south of the Waco TAF site
at this time. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings should continue for the
next 1-2 hours before VFR returns. There will be a chance for
nocturnal convection and MVFR ceilings into mid-morning Sunday.

Bain

&&

.UPDATE...
Will do quick update to increase PoPs a bit further to the east
than previous forecast as low level moisture continues to stream
northward. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains in good
shape.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/
Morning satellite imagery shows that extensive low cloud cover
across South Texas is spreading northward. This is in response to
strengthening low level southerly flow ahead of a very slow moving
but large upper level trough over the western U.S. This trough
will linger over the western U.S. through much of the upcoming
week keeping sporadic rain chances across parts of the area almost
every day.

For today...moisture advection will continue across the region
with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s by this
afternoon. The low level warm, moist advection has already
resulted in a few isolated showers across parts of the Hill
Country. As temperatures warm this afternoon...additional isolated
convection is expected to develop. This will be most likely across
our south and southwestern counties. Despite moderate instability
by afternoon...low level winds are fairly weak. Stronger winds
aloft may tend to blow developing updrafts over resulting in
disorganized spotty showers or storms. Coverage of storms is
expected to be around 20%.

On Sunday...the forecast is a little more uncertain. Dryline
convection that develops across west Texas today may try to make a
run at our western counties overnight but should run into
increasing inhibition. About half of the guidance though including
the WRF-NMM keeps the convection together late tonight and then
intensifies it during the day Sunday as it enters our northwest
counties. If this does occur...convection should have ample
instability to continue south across most of the area. While not
typically the favored time for a MCS to move across the
area...will raise PoPs slightly during the day on Sunday. The
alternate scenario is that we stay mostly quiet during the day
Sunday and dryline convection that develops off to the west would
have a decent shot at surviving and moving across North Texas
Sunday night into early Monday.

Monday through Wednesday will all be similar with warm afternoons
and scattered dryline convection mainly off to the west. Best
chances for thunderstorms would likely be on Monday. By Tuesday
and Wednesday...winds aloft become more southwesterly and our
capping begins to increase a bit resulting in less potential for
thunderstorms to move into our area.

Thunderstorm chances again increase for Thursday and Friday as a
stronger piece of shortwave energy moves out of the southwest U.S.
and into the southern Plains. With warm and humid conditions
expected to be in place across North and Central Texas through the
upcoming week...we will be unstable in the afternoons with steep
lapse rates aloft and moderate deep layer shear. Thunderstorms
that move into North Texas any of the next several days will have
the potential to be severe.

Dunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  68  84  70  85 /   5  10  40  40  40
Waco                86  68  84  68  84 /  10  10  40  20  30
Paris               83  63  83  63  83 /   5  10  20  20  40
Denton              84  65  83  67  84 /   5  10  40  40  40
McKinney            84  66  83  69  84 /   5  10  40  40  40
Dallas              86  69  85  70  85 /   5  10  40  30  40
Terrell             85  66  84  69  84 /   5  10  30  20  40
Corsicana           86  68  86  70  85 /   5  10  40  20  40
Temple              83  68  83  69  84 /  20  10  30  20  30
Mineral Wells       85  67  84  66  83 /  20  20  40  40  30

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

15/79


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