Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 051655 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
THE 12Z GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 605 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE MS VALLEY AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE AREA INTO NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
INDICATED -RA IN THE EXTENDED DFW TAF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THAT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST BEFORE SWINGING
AROUND TO THE NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL PASS BETWEEN KACT AND THE DFW METROPLEX...WHEREAS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. WE
HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH GIVES DFW AN
EAST WIND AROUND 10KT STARTING 09-12Z SATURDAY...THEN NORTH WINDS
THEREAFTER.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25



&&

.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  40  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  40  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  40   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  40  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  40  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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