Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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836
FXUS64 KFWD 192323 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
623 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.AVIATION...
No major changes to the 00Z TAFs with VFR conditions and light
southeasterly winds continuing through the period with a few
afternoon gusts to around 15 kts.

The effects of large-scale subsidence are clear as isolated
convection has struggled mightily this afternoon. As moisture
decreases and mid-level temperatures warm on Wednesday, afternoon
convective coverage should be even less, relegated well to the
east and south of the TAF sites. As a result, will continue with a
persistence forecast with few-sct060 afternoon CU.

Carlaw

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/
Afternoon satellite imagery shows a much more expansive cumulus
field today as compared to the last several days. This is in
response to some increased lower and mid level moisture that has
moved in from the east around the southern periphery of the upper
ridge. There also appears to be a weak little piece of shortwave
energy rotating around the high as evidenced by a small swirl in
water vapor imagery moving across Arkansas. While this feature is
really subtle...it is likely providing as least some weak forcing
for ascent into the Arklatex and into North Texas. With strong
afternoon heating...isolated showers and possibly a storm or two
will develop into the evening hours. Best chances will be across
our east and northeast counties into the Red River counties.
Lightning and gusty winds will be the main threat with any storms
that develop.

The little disturbance moving through today will be gone by
tomorrow with the upper ridge in control of things across the
southern Plains. Any convection tomorrow should remain well to our
east or southeast with the sea breeze. Temperatures through the
end of the week will slowly creep upward to 100 degrees or
slightly above.

Concerning the potential for a heat advisory through the
end of the week...Dewpoints are actually higher today than they
have been over the last few days with heat indices generally in
the 100-104 degree range. This higher humidity is likely in
response to the low/mid level moisture plume and rather deep
east-southeast flow. As we get into tomorrow and Thursday...the
center of the 850mb ridge will begin to shift eastward. This
should result in a more south-southwest component to the wind and
result in deeper mixing. That in turn should result in dewpoints
dropping into the mid/upper 60s. So despite warming
temperatures...heat indices should remain in the 100 to 105 degree
range precluding the need for a heat advisory at this time.

As we head into early next week...a fairly strong upper trough
will swing through the upper Plains and Great Lakes. This should
help push the strong ridge back to the west and will open the door
to northerly flow across the Plains. This will result in slightly
cooler temperatures and at least some increased chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Dunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  98  79  99  79 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                77  98  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               75  97  76  99  77 /  10  10   5   0   0
Denton              76  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            76  97  76  98  76 /  10  10   5   0   0
Dallas              78  98  79  99  80 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             76  97  76  98  77 /   5  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           77  97  77  98  78 /   5   5   5   0   0
Temple              76  98  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  97  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

90/58



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