Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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761
FXUS64 KFWD 020818
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS WILL
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST. HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. SINCE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORM CHANCES
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BE A
VERY SLOW MOVER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS TAF FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CIGS AROUND FL040-060 WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD BY MIDDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHOULD A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOP AND
APPROACH A TAF SITE...A TEMPO GROUP MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED TO
MENTION BRIEF CIGS AROUND FL020. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY MONDAY NIGHT.

STALLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  50  73  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO                69  49  73  52  80 /  40   5   5   5   0
PARIS               69  48  71  53  78 /  30   5   5   0   0
DENTON              68  46  73  52  81 /  20   5   5  10   0
MCKINNEY            69  47  73  53  79 /  30   5   5   5   0
DALLAS              70  51  74  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL             70  49  72  54  79 /  30   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA           70  50  73  54  79 /  40   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE              68  49  74  51  80 /  40  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       69  46  74  50  81 /  20   5   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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