Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260809
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  81  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  77  98  77  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  78  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  78  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  83 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  78  99  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  75  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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