Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 231736 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS. MUCH
OF THE HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BRINGING
THIS MCS INTO THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...JUST AFTER 00Z. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF VCTS IN THE METROPLEX FROM 01-03Z BUT
WILL CLOSELY BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
MCS THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING. IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES THAT THE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORTS...WILL AMEND
TO INCLUDE TSRA WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO THE OUTFLOW.
THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE METROPLEX PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE MCS BEFORE IT
REACHES KACT AND WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE KACT TAF AT THIS
TIME.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST
TO EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
KACT BETWEEN 10-13Z THURSDAY MORNING.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON MAY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO SHOULD KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX VALUES
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WE
EXPECT THAT THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT THESE STORMS
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS THEY MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...BUT MAY STILL
AFFECT THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A TUTT LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS MORNING. BUILDING HEAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY FOR NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

TODAY THE TUTT LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
SPREADING WEAK ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IGNITING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE HRRR...RUC...AND 4KM NAM ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

BY THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR SO.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE OZARKS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF
WONT REALLY AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS CANTON TO PALESTINE SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RIGHT NEAR 105. SOME RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY HOWEVER AS A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...DIGGING IT INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE GETTING SHUNTED WESTWARD. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS LAST
WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS WITH AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING
THIS TIME.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78 100  79 102 /  10  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              98  77 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             94  75  97  76  98 /  20  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            99  76 101  77 101 /  20  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  76  99  76 100 /  20  30  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            99  79 101  79 102 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           97  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  99  76 100 /  10  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  99  75 100 /   5  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76 101  76 102 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/30




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