Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 202318
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
618 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.AVIATION...
A stationary front will provide focus for thunderstorm
development across Northwest Texas and Oklahoma over the next few
hours as a shortwave trough enters the Southern Plains from the
west. For the next 24 hours, convection is expected to remain
north of all TAF sites, or in closer proximity to the surface
boundary. The upper trough will continue east through the Plains
Friday, forcing the front southward into North Texas. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely accompany the front as it pushes through
the DFW Metroplex at or shortly after 22/00Z. Northwest winds
around 15 KT can be expected in the wake of the front. It appears
that the system will be pretty progressive and be southeast of
the Metro area prior to 22/06Z. Lift will be weaker at KACT, but
an isolated storm will still be possible in the Waco area just
beyond this forecast period.

Otherwise, expect another round of MVFR stratus to invade all
locations during the overnight period of 07-09Z, with CIGs
gradually lifting during the day Friday.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017/
At mid afternoon, a frontal boundary extended southeast of a line
from Rogers, Arkansas to Muskogee, Oklahoma to Frederick,
Oklahoma to Big Spring, Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
so far today has been across eastern part of this front from
Central Oklahoma northeastward. How far south this boundary moves
is dependent on the convection that develops along the front. For
now, have indicated that this front will become stationary
southeast of a McAlester, Oklahoma to Wichita Falls line late this
evening before it then start to lift back to the north. A few
storms may reach areas north of a Cisco to Denton to Paris line
tonight. If these storms occur, they will have the potential to
become severe producing one inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

Low clouds will overspread much of the forecast area again
overnight tonight. Lows will be in the 60s. After morning low
clouds, skies will become partly sunny Friday and highs will once
again be well above normal with 80s expected area wide. There
will be low chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday morning
through mid afternoon mainly near the Red River. As a shortwave
moves out into the Plains Friday afternoon, the cold front move
southeast and thunderstorms chances will increase late Friday
afternoon along and north of the I-20 corridor. Some severe
thunderstorms will be possible with large hail and damaging winds
as well as heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning. The storms
are expected to develop into a squall line Friday night which will
then sweep across much of the forecast area. The threat for
damaging winds, locally heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning
will continue through the night. Thunderstorm chances will linger
southeast of a Killeen to Sulphur Springs line into early Saturday
morning but the severe threat should be ending around daybreak as
the cold front clears the region.

Skies will clear from northwest to southeast during the day
Saturday. It will be breezy and cool Saturday behind the front
with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Wind speeds will decrease
to 5 to 10 mph toward sunset. With clear skies and these lighter
winds, temperatures will fall into the 40s area wide by daybreak
Sunday.

Upper level ridging will occur Sunday and Monday in the wake of
the departing upper level trough. The upper flow will become more
zonal by Tuesday as shortwaves move across the northern and
central Plains. This will result in dry weather through
this period with warming trend starting during the day Sunday.
Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s Sunday, mid 70s to lower
80s Monday, and 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will
still be cool Sunday night with lows mostly in the 40s, but will
moderate Monday and Tuesday nights with mid 50s to lower 60s
Monday night and 60s area wide Tuesday night.

An upper level trough is expected to move out into northern and
central Plains on Thursday, this should drive a cold front
southward toward North Texas. Although the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
differ on their solutions, shower and thunderstorm chances should
return on Thursday.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  82  55  67  47 /  10  20  60  10   0
Waco                67  82  56  67  45 /   5   5  40  10   0
Paris               64  80  53  64  44 /  10  20  70  10   0
Denton              66  82  52  67  45 /  10  30  60   5   0
McKinney            67  81  54  65  46 /  10  20  60  10   0
Dallas              69  83  56  68  49 /  10  20  60  10   0
Terrell             66  81  55  67  46 /   5   5  50  10   5
Corsicana           66  82  57  67  46 /   5   5  50  20   5
Temple              66  83  57  68  48 /   5   5  40  10   0
Mineral Wells       64  85  51  67  43 /  10  20  40   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/91


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