Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230446
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1146 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected through the period with northerly flow
around 10 kt. Winds will become light and more southerly toward
the end of the DFW TAF period. Otherwise, no significant aviation
concerns expected through the period.

Dunn

&&

.UPDATE...
Quick update this evening just to remove the mention of thunder
overnight and to adjust sky trends based on upstream satellite and
observations. The 850 mb front, which was partly responsible for
showers and isolated storms today, is now pressing south and east
of our CWA, and this will bring an end to our precipitation
chances. Blustery north winds will gradually subside overnight,
but will remain just elevated enough to help keep the bottom from
really falling out on our overnight temperatures. Still, lingering
cold advection and decreasing cloud cover will allow temperatures
to tumble to around 40 across our outlying and sheltered
locations by daybreak on Sunday.

Carlaw

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/
This afternoon, showers and isolated storms have developed along
the 850 mb front/moisture axis moving southeast through the region.
Prevailing upper level troughing is likely providing some
additional lift, and there is weak MUCAPE above this layer that
has allowed a handful of thunderstorms to form, producing
isolated lightning strikes. This linear area of showers and storms
will continue to shift south and southeast through the early
evening hours, and any rain is expected to come to an end later
this evening as the elevated front moves south of the region per
the RAP.

Quiet weather is expected for the next few days. Then the upper
level pattern becomes more active by Tuesday with a longwave
trough setting up across the western and central portions of the
country and several disturbances translating through the trough.
The upper level trough that is currently located just to our north
will dip southeast tonight and Sunday with brief upper level
ridging expected in its wake. Breezy winds today in the wake of
last night`s cold front will weaken this evening as the surface
high continues to move into the region. The skies will clear
overnight but optimal radiational cooling isn`t likely tonight due
to the winds remaining about 5-10 mph. Still, overnight lows will
be significantly cooler in the 40s with possibly some rural
locations in our northwest and west dipping into the upper 30s.
Temperatures on Sunday will still be below normal as north winds
prevail through the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere, and we
transition from trough to ridge aloft. Afternoon highs will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s under sunny skies with a 10-15 mph
wind. Overnight lows Sunday night will again dip into the 40s in
most locations, but the immediate DFW Metroplex may only fall into
the lower 50s. Temperatures for the remainder of the week will be
warm and above normal. The warmest temperatures of the week are
expected on Tuesday behind the dryline in our western counties
where mid 90 degree warmth is likely.

Starting Monday, we will transition back to a zonal or weak
troughing pattern aloft as the longwave trough moves across the
Western CONUS. South winds at the surface will return across the
region in response to a surface low in the Plains, but notable
moisture return won`t arrive until Tuesday. The dryline will take
shape in West Texas on Monday and will be a player in convective
chances for portions of next week, in particular the later part of
the week. The first disturbance within the longwave trough will
move out into the Plains late Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, the
dryline looks to redevelop across our western zones with
increasing values of instability (surface based CAPE) to the east
of the dryline. However, west to southwest winds above the surface
are expected to keep a strong lid on convective chances along the
dryline. Only the CMC model is breaking the cap and producing
convection late Tuesday afternoon/evening, but we will need to
keep a close eye on convective chances this day. There would be a
conditionally severe threat IF the cap is able to weaken with
large scale lift from the incoming disturbance.

As this first disturbance moves east, it will push a front
through the region Tuesday night-Wednesday, and there are low rain
chances in our eastern counties Wednesday and Wednesday night
along the front. Forecast soundings support at least a limited
severe weather threat during the late afternoon and evening hours
depending on the speed of the front. The front will stall across
Southeast Texas Wednesday night and quickly retreat north on
Thursday as the next upper level disturbance approaches. The
dryline will again be located in our western counties Thursday
afternoon and there`s good agreement that convection will develop
along the dryline in the afternoon hours. The cap may again be a
significant factor in timing, evolution and coverage, but
soundings indicate the potential for possibly explosive severe
storms in which all hazards may be possible.

As we get into Friday, model discrepancies within the upper level
pattern are muddling the convective chances for the end of the
week and weekend. There will likely be at least one more round of
convection, possibly two. The models differ on the arrival of the
next disturbance which affects rain chances. Both the GFS and
ECMWF are slower with the next disturbance and have the next
round of convection next Saturday as a front moves through the
region. For now, will keep broad brushed low rain chances for
Friday and Saturday.

JLDunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  72  52  80  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                45  71  47  81  60 /   5   0   0   5   5
Paris               44  69  46  78  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              43  71  46  79  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            44  70  47  79  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              50  72  53  80  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             45  70  47  79  59 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           47  71  48  80  59 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              46  72  48  80  60 /   5   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       42  73  45  82  58 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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