Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 211144
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
644 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017


.AVIATION...
North and Central Texas will remain on the eastern periphery of
the upper ridge over the Southwest CONUS and to the northwest of
Tropical Storm Cindy. This places the area in a subsident zone and
a region of quiet aviation weather. Winds will remain out of the
east in the Metroplex and northeast at KACT through this evening,
with speeds mainly in the 5 to 10 kt range. Winds will back to the
northeast in the DFW area and north at KACT overnight as the
tropical system moves north. VFR conditions are expected
overnight, then a stratus deck associated with wrap-around
moisture could result in MVFR cigs Thursday morning. At this time,
it looks like precipitation associated with Cindy will remain
east of all TAF sites.

30

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/
We will continue to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cindy as it
moves northwest towards the Texas/Louisana border during the next
24 to 36 hours. Meanwhile, a large upper level ridge over the
southwestern United States will start to weaken. We will have a
another warm dry day across most of North and Central Texas today
as we will be under subsidence from the upper ridge. Temperatures
will rise into 90s area wide, except for maybe some upper 80s in
the southeast. There will be a gradual increase in high clouds
from the southeast that are associated with outer fringes of
Tropical Storm Cindy.

Cindy is expected to turn toward the north Thursday over far East
Texas/western Louisiana and then turn northeast across northern
Louisiana and southern Arkansas Thursday night and into northern
Mississippi on Friday. This track will keep the heaviest rain and
the severe weather threat to the east of the forecast area. Some
areas southeast of a Hearne to Canton line may pick up 1 to 2
inches of rain. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 80s across
the southeastern counties to the mid 90s across the northwest.
With the system moving farther away on Friday, there will be less
cloud cover and highs will range from the upper 80s east to the
upper 90s west.

As an upper level low trough sweeps across the northern Plains,
a cold front will sink southward. The GFS and ECWMF continue
to differ on the timing of the front with the GFS bringing the
front into the forecast area overnight Friday night into Saturday,
while the ECMWF is about 24 hours slower. Have kept chance PoPs
(30-50 percent) across the forecast area from Friday night through
Sunday night. Temperatures will be a little more comfortable with
highs mostly in the 80s.

We will be in northwesterly flow aloft for the early to middle
part of next week with a upper level ridge over the southwestern
United States and a trough over the east. This will allow for
disturbances to move across the region so have left 20 to 30
percent PoPs area wide for Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures
will slowly rise but expect them to be near or below seasonal
normals Monday through Wednesday.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  75  92  76  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
Waco                93  74  90  74  97 /   0   5  20  20  20
Paris               90  71  86  73  88 /   0  10  30  30  40
Denton              93  71  92  73  94 /   0   0  10  10  10
McKinney            91  72  89  73  92 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dallas              93  75  90  76  94 /   0   0  20  20  20
Terrell             91  74  89  74  91 /   0  10  30  30  30
Corsicana           91  75  86  75  91 /   0  20  40  30  30
Temple              93  72  90  74  96 /   0   5  20  20  10
Mineral Wells       94  69  92  71  96 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/58



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