Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200838
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST AND
NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO AS OF 0730Z /230 AM/. THIS WILL RESULT IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO- THIRDS OF
NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE BEING THE GREATEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 00Z /7 PM
CDT/ MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
ARKANSAS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. WITH CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND MODERATELY STRONG
SHEAR...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A DRY LINE. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  63  79  61  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
WACO, TX              77  60  80  61  82 /  30  20  40  30   5
PARIS, TX             78  60  75  59  79 /  20  50  50  40   5
DENTON, TX            77  62  77  58  80 /  40  40  50  30   0
MCKINNEY, TX          77  62  76  59  80 /  30  40  50  30   0
DALLAS, TX            78  64  79  62  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
TERRELL, TX           78  62  78  60  81 /  20  30  50  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         78  61  80  62  82 /  20  20  50  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  61  80  62  82 /  30  20  30  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  61  83  59  82 /  50  40  50  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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