Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 251943
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATUERS SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY
INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM.
THE REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHESTERN FLANK OF
THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERMN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWONG WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WACO
WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /   5   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /   5   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /   5   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /   5   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /   5   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/30


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