Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 310425
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST TX
MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE HAS MOVED
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH ALL OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AS OF 0430Z.
THIS BOUNDARY HAS REINFORCED EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD ON FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT CONVECTION WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITES.

STALLEY

&&

.UPDATE...

HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY PASSED. ALSO...THIS REQUIRED LOWERING THE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS OVERNIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND MORE TOLERABLE ON
FRIDAY.     75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD
SHIFT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK AND NOT WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE WINDS ARE LIGHT
AREA WIDE...BUT ARE GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
BE ON FRIDAY...BUT WE ARE STILL JUST LOOKING AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT
POPS. BY SATURDAY...LOW CHANCES WILL JUST LINGER ACROSS THE ACROSS
AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
BECOMING UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE JUST PLACED SOME LOW POPS /20 PERCENTS/ ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.    58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  98  77  97  77 /  10  30  20  10   5
WACO, TX              74 100  75 100  74 /  10  30  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             74  95  72  95  73 /  20  20  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            79  96  74  95  74 /  10  30  20  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  97  73  96  74 /  10  30  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            80  98  78  97  78 /  10  30  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           77  98  73  98  74 /  10  30  10   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         78  99  73  98  74 /  10  30  10   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            74 100  74  99  74 /  10  30  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  98  74  96  74 /  10  30  30  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

77/75


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