Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 251800 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
100 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns...Convective potential at all North and Central TX TAF
sites. Otherwise...VFR.

For the Metroplex TAF sites...VFR conditions are generally
expected, outside of active convection this afternoon. The morning
mid-level stratus deck has eroded, yielding to abundant sunshine.
Visible satellite imagery combined with surface observations have
revealed a rapidly developing CU/TCU field with more agitated
CU/TCU along the Red River. This deeper convection along the Red
River appears to be aided by sufficient low level convergence
along a remnant outflow boundary that has progressed southward
from convection in OK/KS. Convection that develops should
initially remain north and east of D10 airspace. Through the mid
and late afternoon hours, the boundary layer should become hot and
well mixed and numerous convective outflows should develop. This
should promote the development of additional scattered convection
that should ease south and westward towards the Metroplex TAF
sites closer to 2000 UTC. Convection at or in the vicinity of any
TAF sites will be capable of brief heavy rain resulting in poor
visibilities and strong outflow which will result in variable and
chaotic low level wind fields. Otherwise, light and variable winds
outside of convection will become easterly through the TAF cycle.
Additional convection is expected Tuesday afternoon as low level
east flow continues. Right now, confidence remains too low to
prevail TS in the extended portion of the DFW TAF, but may be
required at later issuances.

For the Waco TAF site...Convective chances also exist across
Central TX, this afternoon, albeit the better chances should be
1-2 hours later compared to the Metroplex TAF sites. Main hazards
to aviation will be lightning, reduced visibility due to heavy
rain and strong convective outflows. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue.



Satellite and RADAR data this morning indicate that the shear
axis over East TX and LA continues to trudge west towards the
area. Another weak piece of energy appears to be rotating around
the east flank of an upper ridge (currently centered over the
4-corners) and approaching from Oklahoma. Abundant moisture and
modest upper support in place today should be sufficient for the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

A limiting factor may be the swath of mid level cloud cover which
moved in from the east associated with the increase in deep Gulf
moisture. With convective temperatures clustered in the mid 90s,
it may take a little longer for development. However, a quick
glance at model soundings shows that all CIN erodes by noon, so
even if a delay in insolation occurs we should still see
development this afternoon. For this update, we made some minor
adjustments in POPs this afternoon based on the latest guidance,
but overall the forecast is in good shape.



The weather story across North Central Texas this week will be
driven by the breakdown of the large ridge over the central and
western U.S., coupled with a persistent weakness in the mid-
level heights across the Lone Star State. With elevated deep
layer moisture and instability, cloudiness and scattered
thunderstorm activity will affect much of the area through Friday.
While folks shouldn`t expect a washout this week, many locations
will pick up at least a token amount of rainfall, and daytime
temperatures will be held to near normal - or slightly below
normal - levels for late July.

Convection is still expected to ramp up across much of North
Central Texas today, in association with the westward-moving mid-
level shear axis currently located over Louisiana. Though some
spread exists, the various short-term model solutions still
suggest at least scattered thunderstorm activity breaking out
mainly along and east of I-35 by mid/late afternoon. Kept PoPs
pretty close to the previous package, but am not quite as
confident about areal coverage. This is primarily due to
uncertainty about how truly effective the inverted trough will be
in initiating numerous clusters of storms late today. Precipitable
water values will approach 2 standard deviations above normal in
our eastern counties by afternoon, so any slow moving storms that
do develop could produce some isolated flash flooding concerns.

Tuesday, there seems to be a consensus among the guidance
solutions that the best upper support for convection will be
displaced across our southern zones, so have maintained the higher
PoPs across these areas. Given that the rest of North Texas will
remain in the front flank of an inverted trough axis draped across
the Lower Mississippi Valley, at least 20-30% PoPs are warranted
elsewhere Tuesday. A similar setup will exist on Wednesday, and
have kept a corresponding north-south gradation of 20 to 40% PoPs
on this day as well.

A notable weakness in the mid level height field will continue
over North Texas into Thursday and Friday, and to an extent
through the weekend as well.  It sounds like a broken record, but
given the continued presence of instability and the absence of
ridge-induced subsidence, will hold onto chance PoPs through
Friday. It appears the main threat of convection over the weekend
will be confined to the north and/or northeastern-most counties,
in closer proximity to any transient shortwaves in the Central
Plains. Small PoPs will suffice in the Red River counties through
Sunday, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Aside from the potential for some modestly wetting rains -
particularly in the drier northeastern counties - the absence of major
ridging this week will restrain daytime temperatures from reaching
the century mark. For late July, this is certainly welcome news.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  96  78  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
Waco                97  75  95  75  94 /  50  30  40  20  40
Paris               95  75  95  75  94 /  50  20  30  10  30
Denton              96  76  94  76  95 /  40  20  30  10  20
McKinney            95  76  94  76  95 /  40  20  30  10  20
Dallas              96  79  95  79  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
Terrell             95  76  94  76  94 /  50  20  30  10  30
Corsicana           95  76  94  75  93 /  50  30  40  20  30
Temple              96  75  94  75  92 /  50  30  50  30  40
Mineral Wells       96  74  95  75  96 /  30  20  30  10  20


.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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