Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 260236 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
936 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016
The isolated showers and thunderstorms that developed across
Central Texas during the late afternoon have dissipated. Outflow
from the large area of showers and thunderstorms over East Texas
has helped initiate a few showers/thunderstorms across the
extreme eastern part of the forecast area this evening. Thus, have
left some low PoPs across the area southeast of a Canton to Hearne
line through 06z.
/ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/
VFR conditions should prevail through the period at all TAF
sites. On Friday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected beginning early in the afternoon. There is a decent
chance that TAF sites may be impacted by storms intermittently
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Have maintained
the VCTS mention through this time frame but it will not be
practical to tempo a TS mention with the isolated/scattered nature
of activity. Coverage of convection will decrease Friday evening.
Otherwise, MVFR stratus is expected to develop across the Hill
Country early Friday morning but do not expect this to reach as
far north as Waco with weak low-level flow in place. Surface winds
will remain out of the southeast around 5-10 kts through the
period with the exception of any wind shifts caused by
thunderstorm outflow on Friday afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/
North and Central Texas will remain between a developing trough
across the western states and ridge of high pressure across the
Southeastern United States. A few storms across East and Southeast
Texas may reach the eastern zones late this afternoon or early
evening but any storms that develop should dissipate around
sunset. The storms currently across West Texas along a retreating
front will not have any impacts on North Texas tonight.
The western U.S. upper trough will translate east on Friday which
will nudge the upper ridge toward the southeast coast. Increasing
large scale upward vertical motion and increasing moisture will
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best storm
chances Friday will be across the eastern zones in the afternoon
where moisture and instability will be the most abundant. Some
storms may linger in the east Friday evening, but overall
coverage and intensity should decrease with the loss of surface
heating. Severe storms are not anticipated but the stronger storms
may produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
The general upper level pattern will not change much Saturday.
However, a weak low pressure system is progged to develop along
the Texas Coast which will begin to shunt the feed of moisture
into South Texas. Therefore, the chances for showers and storms
Saturday will be less than on Friday.
The upper level ridge will begin to build back to the west on Sunday
as the flow across the western U.S. becomes zonal. The
disturbance on the Texas Coast will continue to divert the best
moisture into South Texas, but there should be enough weak lift
and moisture for isolated showers and storms Sunday afternoon.
The upper ridge will become more established across the Central CONUS
Monday through Thursday which will result in seasonably hot and
mainly rain free weather with the exception of isolated storms
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 91 75 93 76 / 5 50 20 20 10
Waco 74 90 73 91 74 / 10 50 20 20 10
Paris 73 89 73 92 72 / 10 60 30 30 10
Denton 74 90 72 92 73 / 5 40 20 20 10
McKinney 73 90 73 92 73 / 5 50 20 20 10
Dallas 77 91 76 93 77 / 5 50 20 20 10
Terrell 74 89 74 91 74 / 10 50 20 30 10
Corsicana 75 89 74 91 74 / 10 50 20 30 10
Temple 73 89 72 90 73 / 10 40 20 30 10
Mineral Wells 72 91 71 93 72 / 5 30 10 20 10