Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 200440 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

A weak cool front continued to sink slowly south of Waco Regional
currently with the frontal inversion having deepened more than
expected across the DFW Metro earlier, with depth to between
900-859 mb. The deeper and cooler airmass just above the surface
has trapped moisture between 2500-5000 feet with modest ENE
boundary layer winds around 15 kts. This was resulting in multi-
layered strato-cu decks across the area, while Waco remain mostly
clear with weak north winds less than 5 knots.

With the aformentioned and unusual depth of moisture below an
elevated frontal inversion across DFW airports, have made significant
changes to the potential for VFR cigs initially, with some high
MVFR development after 07z-08z. The deep frontal layer for this
time of year should lend to low MVFR by sunrise, before a slow
rise of cigs to high MVFR above 2000 feet by mid morning, eventually
scattering out with strong June heating by midday Tuesday. It is
possible that VFR cigs may linger into the afternoon hours Tuesday
with this kind of moisture depth below the inversion, but for
now, will hold to RUC soundings bringing in drier air from the
northeast at these levels.

Waco will be VFR til close to sunrise, then as initial diurnal
heating works upon a slowly increasing frontal inversion, expect
to see low MVFR cigs quickly form. Afterward, similar trends to
DFW airports will be seen with a gradual rise above 2000 feet by
mid morning, before scattering with a drier low level airmass
advecting in from the northeast.

All airports should see generally NE flow 5-10 knots tonight
through much of the day Tuesday, before the broad ridge of surface
high pressure shifts further east, at which time light E/SE winds
less than 10 knots return on Tuesday night.

05/

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 355 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/
/Rest of Today through Tuesday/

All of the showers and thunderstorms from earlier have dissipated
with the exception of a few isolated cells in Central Texas.
Visible satellite imagery shows a large area of subsidence in
the wake of the earlier convection extending from the Hill Country
northward into the Metroplex. This suggests that at least for a
while, no new additional development is expected. Beneath the
thinning high cloud in the wake of earlier convection, we have
warmed back up into the upper 80s and lower 90s, so there is still
ample surface based instability, although not much focus for
additional development. The weak front is ill-defined, but
generally lies south of I-20. If there were any additional
shower/storms to develop this evening, they should be across the
southern half of the CWA, although this chance is about 10% or
less.

Tonight should be quiet across the region with light winds and
temperatures falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s. There could
be some patchy reductions in visibility or very low clouds in
areas that picked up rainfall earlier today, but most areas should
remain partly cloudy. Ridging will strengthen a bit on Tuesday as
mid level flow strengthens with the approaching tropical
disturbance. North Texas should remain far enough removed for any
precipitation on Tuesday, but highs will rebound into the mid 90s
areawide.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 355 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/
/Tuesday Night through Sunday/

We`ll ring in the first full day of astronomical summer with what
should actually be a pretty pleasant day as dewpoints will
efficiently mix out into the lower to middle 60s during the
afternoon. As a result, the high temperatures in the low-mid 90s
will actually feel like low-mid 90s instead of 100+.

The main focus during the extended portion of the forecast
continues to be on any potential (likely limited) tropical
impacts from an area of disturbed weather presently churning just
off the Yucatan Peninsula. A wide disparity exists in model
forecast solutions regarding this system`s track--something that`s
not all that unexpected given the disturbance`s weak and highly
disorganized/sheared nature at this point, with several very
exposed circulation centers apparent on satellite imagery. The
potential forecast tracks are bounded on the east by the GFS and
its ensemble system (GEFS), and to the west by the ECMWF/EPS (00z)
solutions. The Canadian/GEPS (Canadian Ensemble) combination
appears to exist somewhere in between, favoring a track from the
Upper Texas Coast and up through East Texas with the remnant
circulation during the Thursday-Friday timeframe.

With North and Central Texas sandwiched between the record-heat-
inducing high across the Desert Southwest and the Atlantic
subtropical ridge to the east, the logical expectation would be
for this potential system to track off to our east within the
weakness between these two features. This would favor a track
somewhere between the GEFS/CMC/GEPS progs near the TX/LA border.
As such, any impacts from this system appear quite limited for the
time being outside of some convection potentially pivoting around
the low`s eastern semicircle. For now, we`ve added slight chance
to low end chance PoPs to account for this across our far eastern
counties for Thursday-Friday.

A fairly similar pattern to this past week looks to return for the
upcoming weekend, with northwest flow aloft intensifying,
potentially allowing several disturbances/cold fronts to make a
run at the region. Broadbrushed low PoPs will therefore prevail
through this portion of the forecast given little hope of
capturing the details of the small scale perturbations within the
flow at this time range. Aside from potential additional rounds at
precipitation, increased cloud cover may also help to keep
temperatures at or just below seasonal normals for the first week
of astronomical summer.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  95  71  94  73 /  10   5   0   0   5
Waco                73  94  70  96  72 /  10   5   0   0  10
Paris               69  91  68  91  71 /   5   5   0   0  10
Denton              71  93  69  93  72 /  10   5   0   0   5
McKinney            71  93  69  93  72 /  10   5   0   0   5
Dallas              75  94  72  94  74 /  10   5   0   0  10
Terrell             72  93  69  93  72 /  10   5   0   0  10
Corsicana           74  93  70  94  72 /  10   5   0   0  10
Temple              73  93  70  95  73 /  10   5   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       71  93  68  94  71 /  10   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/90


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