Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 232138
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH. ONE SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF A DEEPENING
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF NEW ORLEANS WITH ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OVERCAST SKIES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER STRETCHING NORTHWARD
ALL THE WAY INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE STILL TO THE WEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
TEXAS...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THE STRONGEST OF THIS LIFT PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
AREA OF STRONG LIFT WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION HEADED
INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES OVERNIGHT. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL STILL BE ONGOING WITH A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY CHRISTMAS MORNING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY INTO THE 60S ON CHRISTMAS
FOR KIDDOS TO ENJOY THEIR NEW TOYS...OR COAL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
BREEZY. WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED GRASS FIRE DANGER ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE DEEPER WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS EJECTS A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE ENERGY NORTHEAST BY THIS TIME. THIS ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT TO
SLIDE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS FASTER IN THE GFS...EFFECTIVELY SCOURING
OUT THE MOISTURE MUCH QUICKER AND KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER. BOTH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...DIGGING A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH TEXAS AND IS THEREFORE A WETTER SOLUTION WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE MORE CONCERNING
PART OF THE FORECAST COMES IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
STILL HOLDING A CONSIDERABLE PIECE OF ENERGY WESTWARD...IT
DEVELOPS MORE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME IN THE COLDER AIR.
ANALYSIS OF THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT AS OF NOW THIS WOULD
STILL BE ALL RAIN...BUT IT WOULD NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. FOR
NOW...WILL SIDE A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSISTENCY OF
HIGHER POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A TROUGH
DIG QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF ADVERTISES. POPS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL REFLECT THIS...SHOWING A QUICK TAPERING BUT
IF IT APPEARS THAT THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWER THEN THESE WILL
NEED TO BE RAISED.

OTHERWISE...THERE REMAIN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
GUIDANCE HEADED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST
ONE MORE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH
EXACT TIMING REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WITH MOST RAINFALL EAST OF THE DFW AREA ALREADY
LATE THIS MORNING...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING THE
ONSET OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

AT 1130 AM...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THAT ALL BUT VERY LIGHT
RAIN HAD MOVED EAST OF THE DFW AREA. THERE WAS ANOTHER BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN HEADED TOWARDS WACO...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVER
WACO AIRPORT THROUGH 20Z. RAINFALL ASIDE...CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR HEIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
TODAY.

A WEAK MESO-LOW INTERRUPTED NORTH WINDS AT DFW AIRPORT THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO USHER IN A BANK OF MVFR STRATUS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CLOUD DECK
WILL MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OVER WACO A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER BUILDING SOUTH OF DFW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE 2000 FEET...SO OVERALL IMPACTS TO ACCEPTANCE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT/DISSIPATE BY 17Z AS DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO
DOMINATE THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  36  49  34  60  47 /  10   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              36  51  31  61  45 /  10   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             35  47  33  58  43 /  10   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            35  49  32  60  44 /  10   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          35  48  33  59  45 /  10   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            37  49  35  60  47 /  10   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           36  48  32  60  45 /  10   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         36  49  33  61  45 /  10   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            35  51  31  61  45 /  10   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     33  49  31  61  41 /  10   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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