Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 030901
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH MEANS CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY
COOL DAY DESPITE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS MORNING WHICH HAS CAUSED
A SWATH OF CLOUDS AND VIRGA TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE NW CWA THIS MORNING BUT AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
INCREASES THEY WILL DISSIPATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN AND SETTLE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING MEANS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. TRANQUIL AND COOL
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL AND ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S. IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING AND BEGINS TO BRING SOME
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS UNANIMOUSLY TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS MEANS IT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME TAPPING INTO ANY MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM IS STRONG...AND IT SHOULD STILL
SQUEEZE OUT THE LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE RETAINED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT...AND SUNSHINE WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY WHICH WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING. MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT AND SUNNY SKIES MEANS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CONTINENT AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS
WILL PLACE TEXAS IN PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE
LOW LEVELS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL SEND ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...THE CORE OF THIS
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AS OUR AIRMASS
TRAJECTORY WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE/SUBSIDENCE
WARMING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ROCKIES. DESPITE THIS
WARMING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONFIGURATION IS ALMOST
ALWAYS A DRY ONE HERE...AND IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN UNTIL THE PATTERN CAN CHANGE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE THIS MAY OCCUR AROUND THE 3RD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGING SOME PACIFIC SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
REGION.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  30  55  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  27  56  30  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             50  27  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            50  26  54  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          50  29  53  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  31  55  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           51  30  54  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  31  55  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            54  27  56  30  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  24  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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