Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 242243 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
543 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...


/ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 26 KNOTS BY 17Z AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH DEEPENS. THE GUSTS MAY TEMPORARILY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE RETURNING 04-05Z. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF
TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE WACO AREA 18Z-00Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...BUT THIS CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THEIR TAF AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE
WACO AREA BY 02Z AND AROUND 04Z IN THE METROPLEX. CEILINGS MAY GO
DOWN TO IFR BY 09Z MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED OVC008 IN THE
WACO TAF STARTING AT 09Z...BUT KEPT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES IN
LOWER END MVFR...OVC012 FOR NOW.

58


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IS SHAPING UP
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE
STORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD WITH BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING
WEST COAST TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH ARIZONA AND UTAH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPS WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP. THE ONLY THING THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY GET SURFACE PARCELS TO REALIZE THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL WOULD BE LIFT ALONG A MESO-SCALE BOUNDARY. WE ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR
STORMS REGION WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE FULL SUITE OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
DRYLINE TO MIX FARTHER EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE
DRYLINE TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP WELL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IF CONVECTIVE TEMPS CAN BE REACHED. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ALONG
WITH MODERATE SHEAR. BY MID EVENING TUESDAY...STORMS WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE INTO AN EASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY HAZARDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE STORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION LEADS US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SQUALL LINE WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN WORKED OVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE
WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS DO
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER..THEY DO AGREE THAT STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SO ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS SINCE
MANY RIVERS ARE STILL IN FLOOD FROM THE LAST RAINFALL EVENT AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME BIG PROBLEMS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER WEATHER
SHOULD FINALLY MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO START THE
FIRST WEEK OF MAY.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    67  84  70  84  67 /   5  20  10  20  60
WACO                67  84  70  84  66 /   5  20  10  20  60
PARIS               64  80  68  81  66 /   5  20  20  20  60
DENTON              66  83  69  83  64 /   0  20  10  20  60
MCKINNEY            66  82  69  82  65 /   5  20  20  20  60
DALLAS              67  84  71  84  67 /   5  20  10  20  60
TERRELL             65  82  70  82  67 /   5  20  20  20  60
CORSICANA           67  84  70  83  68 /  10  20  20  20  60
TEMPLE              67  84  70  84  67 /  10  20  10  20  50
MINERAL WELLS       65  88  68  85  61 /   0  10  10  20  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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