Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 170144
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
744 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK NEAR 8000FT IS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HAVE AMENDED THE SKY FORECAST FOR THE
FASTER TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN
THE WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE IMPEDED. ELEVATED
INSTABILTIY WILL INCREASE DURING DAY TOMORROW AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. GIVEN
A FAST SOUTH TO NORTH MOVEMENT OF THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION...AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER AVERAGE QPF STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE TOMORROW...BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.3 INCHES. BEST FORCING
FOR CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY VALUES DECREASE BY SUNSET AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST TOMORROW NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 549 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS AND SCTD -SHRA/-RA ON WEDNESDAY ALL SITES. IFR
CIGS/VIS FOR KDFW AFTER 18/00Z.

NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TAFS SITES WILL REMAIN UNDER A PROGRESSIVE...
ACTIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL NEAR THE REGION AND NUDGE AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD DURING THIS FORECAST. AT
THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY WITH
TIME AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE LIFT WILL ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE WITH THE
BEST TIMING FOR LIGHT RAINFALL BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE SATURATED
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EXPECT BOTH CIGS AND VIS TO FALL INTO THE
IFR RANGE AFTER 18/00Z.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...THEN CIGS
WILL BECOME MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY
THIS EVENING THEN LIGHT EASTERLY AFTERWARD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY AT MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...THEN OVER THE TAF SITES MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE EXPECTED AFTER 18/00Z BUT COULD SEE SOME
DRIZZLE 00-06Z.

75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS
THIS WEEK CAN BE SEEN OFF THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES WITH A SECOND AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST
FETCH AHEAD OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
MOSTLY SUNNY ALL DAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA
YESTERDAY...KEEPING A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE FRONT
HAS MADE IT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPROACHES. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
LOCATIONS...LEADING TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE PROCESS
APPEARS TO ALREADY BE IN THE BEGINNING PHASES OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS
WHERE STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE CLOSER TO HOME TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING LIFT AND
MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE
AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON IN THIS
WEATHER PATTERN. EITHER WAY...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE QUICKLY
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ACCELERATES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNGLIDE ENSUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TOMORROW DUE TO THICK LOW
CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BUT MOST SPOTS SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE SWINGS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE COASTAL FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH TEXAS...WHICH IS WHERE THE
MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS
OVER NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING AND ONLY LOW-END POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR NOW.   30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  39  46  43  60  46 /   0  70  50  20  50
WACO, TX              40  48  45  63  49 /   5  70  60  20  60
PARIS, TX             33  46  40  53  43 /   5  70  70  20  40
DENTON, TX            36  45  41  58  44 /   0  70  50  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          36  45  41  57  44 /   0  70  60  20  40
DALLAS, TX            39  47  43  60  47 /   0  70  60  20  50
TERRELL, TX           38  48  43  60  47 /   0  70  70  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         39  50  46  62  49 /   0  50  70  20  60
TEMPLE, TX            42  49  46  64  50 /   5  70  50  20  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     42  44  41  61  43 /  10  70  40  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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