Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 050032
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
632 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017


.AVIATION...
The primary aviation weather concern with this forecast will be
the arrival of a cold front and showers/thunderstorms associated
with it. The front was just entering North Texas as of 23Z with
storms developing ahead of it. Showers and storms will expand
southwestward along the front through the evening and become a
fairly solid line as it moves south. The storms are not expected
to become severe due to limited instability in place. Brief
impacts from the storms are possible at the Metroplex airports
between 03Z and 06Z and Waco a couple of hours later. Drier and
colder air will move in behind the front/storms overnight with VFR
conditions expected through Tuesday.

A south wind early this evening will turn to the northwest just
ahead of the front and north behind the front. The wind shift
should occur at the Metroplex terminals between 03Z and 04Z and
Waco around 06Z. Wind speeds between 8 and 12 knots ahead of the
front will steadily increase between 13 and 18 knots along with
some gusts near 30 knots behind the front. Northerly winds will
continue Tuesday evening but wind speeds will decrease a bit after
sunset.

79

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 309 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017/
/Through Tonight/

A cold front that extended southeast of a Kansas City, MO to
Ponca City, OK to Amarillo line as of 3 PM will continue to move
southeast through tonight. This front will move to near a Paris
to Dallas to Eastland line by late evening and move through the
rest of the North and Central Texas before daybreak. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the front as it moves into North Texas early this evening and form
into a line as it moves through the rest of North and Central
Texas tonight. Severe weather is not expected but with MuCAPES
1000-1500 J/kg and Bulk Shear around 35 knots, cannot rule out
some wind gusts over 40 knots and some small hail with a few of
the storms. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s northwest
to the mid 50s southeast.

58

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 309 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017/
/Tuesday through Next Monday/

Multiple shortwave troughs passing east from the Plains the
Midwest will deepen a longwave trough across the eastern third of
the CONUS over the next several days. The initial stages of this
pattern has already successfully dislodged a cool Canadian airmass
and sent in plunging south through the middle of the country. The
front will have cleared the entire forecast area by Tuesday
morning, subjecting the region to much cooler, drier and windy
conditions.

As precipitation associated with the front exits to the
southeast, fire danger will become elevated, particularly across
areas west of Interstate 35 where the driest air and driest
vegetation exist.

Tuesday night and Wednesday, the upper air pattern becomes split,
with the large scale northern branch upper trough trudging slowly
east, while a southern stream shortwave sags southeast across the
Desert Southwest. This presents an interesting scenario of broad
isentropic lift and a redevelopment of precipitation back in the
post-frontal air. There is a window opportunity that we may
initially see occasional light sleet Late Tuesday/early Wednesday
just south of the I-20 corridor as mid-level precipitation becomes
susceptible to wet-bulb cooling and re-freezing. Impacts to
travel would be negligible due to above-freezing temperatures and
warm soil. As the shortwave and associated precipitation moves
farther south during the day Wednesday, precipitation should
become all cold rain due to the presence of a more moist column.

The southern branch shortwave will continue southward into Mexico
and a second push of cold air will arrive on Thursday,
essentially forcing all precipitation southward into South Texas.

A strong shortwave will round the west flank of East CONUS trough
Friday night and Saturday, sending a third push of cold air
southward through the region on Saturday. Precipitation is not
expected with this front, but its arrival ensures that temperatures
should remain at or just below normal for this time of year during
the latter half of the forecast.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    45  54  40  57  38 /  50   5  10  10  10
Waco                49  56  40  53  38 /  70  20  30  40  30
Paris               42  53  37  57  35 /  80   5   5   5   5
Denton              42  54  37  58  35 /  30   5   5  10  10
McKinney            44  53  38  57  35 /  50   5   5  10  10
Dallas              46  55  41  58  39 /  60   5  10  10  10
Terrell             46  56  38  58  36 /  70  10  20  10  20
Corsicana           48  55  40  54  38 /  80  20  30  30  30
Temple              49  57  40  51  38 /  60  30  30  50  50
Mineral Wells       43  54  35  56  34 /  20   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25



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