Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 022127
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED FOR A FEW DAYS WHILE THE REST OF THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL KICK A SURFACE CYCLONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND SEND ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

WINDS WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. A WARM FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING
NORTH WITH LOCAL WINDS VEERING SOUTHEAST. THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN...AREAS OF FOG
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY WARMING
TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND BREEZY BUT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE MOST OF
THE DAY. INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEST OVER THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN
IN THE EVENING...THUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE RED RIVER
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WE FEEL THE NAM SERIES IS TOO SLOW WITH WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT AND
HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ONCE IT PASSES AND
STRONG NORTH WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM ABOVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS/RAIN GOING MOST OF
THE DAY. AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD DEEPENS...RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...THEN TO ALL SLEET.
THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED IT AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS TO
END...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
THIS EVENT. WE EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO BEGIN ALONG THE RED RIVER
AROUND MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...ACROSS THE METROPLEX SHORTLY AFTER
MIDDAY AND AROUND WACO/KILLEEN/PALESTINE BY SUNSET.

THE MAIN AREA OF OUR CONCERN IS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE WITH FOCUS
ON WACO/KILLEEN TO ATHENS/PALESTINE...WHERE WE THINK SLEET COULD
ACCUMULATE UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN UP TO 1/10 INCH. THIS
IS DUE TO A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE AROUND 700MB AND THE
RIGHT- REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THIS
REGION. WE WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL STATEMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET/ICE TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
IMPACTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS AN EVOLVING SYSTEM
AND THE ACTUAL LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SLEET AND ICE WILL
LIKELY CHANGE SOME AS NEW DATA IS RECEIVED.

AS FOR THE METROPLEX...ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING OR
BELOW...PRECIPITATION WOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON MIX-MASTERS..
OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES...FOLLOWED BY ROADWAYS SHORTLY AFTERWARD.
THE INTENSITY OF THE SLEET AND DURATION WILL GOVERN HOW FAST
IMPACTS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. IF AROUND
ONE-TENTH OR MORE OF SLEET ACCUMULATES BY DARK...THEN IMPACTS
WOULD LAST THROUGH THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND COLD INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE EAST LATE FRIDAY WITH WINDS
RETURNING TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.      75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE DURATION OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

CLOUD HEIGHTS WERE GENERALLY RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT NOON/18Z. HRRR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LIFT WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR THE PROSPECTS OF HAVING CLOUD HEIGHTS CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...THERE IS STILL SOME HEATING
AT THE SURFACE. DESPITE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS NO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES OR JUST ABOVE FOR
TODAY`S HIGH. HOWEVER...RECENT WIDESPREAD SNOW/SLEET MELT ACROSS
THE DFW AREA HAS LEFT THE GROUND VERY DAMP. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ANY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WILL BE MET WITH AN INCREASE IN
DEW POINT DUE TO EVAPORATION KEEPING CEILING HEIGHTS MORE OR LESS
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THINK THAT CLOUD HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TEND
TO REMAIN STABLE. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHICH SHOULD START TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO LOWER THE NEAR SURFACE STABILITY
PROFILES A BIT. EVEN IF WE MAINTAIN SOME INVERSION...A SMALLER
DEPTH OF THE INVERSION COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BETTER MIXING THAT RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD HEIGHTS TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGL. WENT WITH A FEW HOURS OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...AND THEN SLOWLY IMPROVED CIGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR...AS DEW POINTS CLIMB ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR INCREASES IN INTENSITY...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG IF NEAR SURFACE WINDS CAN REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF
MILE OR BELOW TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.     CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  65  39  39  27 /  40  40  60  80  50
WACO, TX              42  69  48  48  28 /  30  30  50  80  70
PARIS, TX             39  63  38  40  24 /  40  60  60  80  60
DENTON, TX            39  65  35  37  25 /  40  40  60  70  50
MCKINNEY, TX          40  64  37  38  25 /  40  50  60  80  50
DALLAS, TX            41  67  40  41  27 /  40  40  60  80  50
TERRELL, TX           41  67  42  43  27 /  40  50  60  80  60
CORSICANA, TX         43  68  46  47  28 /  40  40  60  80  70
TEMPLE, TX            42  68  50  50  28 /  30  30  40  70  70
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  69  35  37  26 /  30  30  60  60  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75


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