Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 211750
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED.

EARLY MORNING IFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE
REGION...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY
INDICATE A RETURN OF STRATUS TO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ONLY OTHER REAL AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S...IT
DEFINITELY FEELS LIKE A DAY WHEN WE TYPICALLY GET THUNDERSTORMS
HERE IN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PROCESSES THAT
SHOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY. THE FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT WAS INDICATED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WARM
UP/STRENGTHEN THE CAP ALOFT TODAY. ALSO...AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP
THEY WILL ENTRAIN SOME OF THE VERY DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN
PLACE RIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY/MIXED LAYER...LOWERING SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HRS OF THE DAY TODAY. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST IN THE TAFS
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...
STRATUS IS ERODING QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY GONE
BY NOON...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
HAZY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE WEST.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
THE SUNDAY EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
GAINING STRENGTH AND WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THIS MEANS THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT BECAUSE
WE ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE...WE WILL HAVE EPISODES OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR OLD DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS A HOT AND MAINLY DRY ONE FOR OUR REGION.

AFTER SCATTERED MORNING CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF...GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARGINALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN FAIRLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SEND A PIECE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY SOUTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OVER
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IF THIS CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS. THIS IS
EXACTLY WHAT THE ECMWF/NAM AND SOME SREF MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...
AND THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PV MAX AND PERHAPS AN OLD
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...AND THUS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AND THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION
AND PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 100 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WAS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND...BUT THE ECMWF MOS
APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED STAY CLOSE TO ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDING NEAR
1.5 INCHES...LIKELY A SIGN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ABOUT SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING BACK NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND ANOTHER LOW OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              96  74  98  74  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             91  70  95  72  96 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            96  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  72  98  73  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  78  98  79  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  97  75  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            96  74  98  73  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  72  99  73 100 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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