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000
FXUS64 KFWD 150855
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP STORMS MOVING AND BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME TALL STORMS WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS. STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SOME WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY WEAK
FLOW...GOOD INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES. THEREFORE...SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE STATE. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  74  97  77  94 /  40  20  10  10  30
WACO, TX              95  72  96  75  95 /  40  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             92  71  93  72  92 /  40  30  20  20  40
DENTON, TX            93  72  96  74  93 /  40  20  10  10  30
MCKINNEY, TX          92  71  97  74  92 /  40  20  10  10  30
DALLAS, TX            95  75  97  77  93 /  40  20  10  10  30
TERRELL, TX           95  72  97  74  92 /  40  20  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  95  75  92 /  40  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            94  72  94  73  93 /  40  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     90  70  97  72  94 /  40  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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