Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 241707
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER IS CONCERNED...CIRRUS MAY
OCCASIONALLY THICKEN UP OVERHEAD BUT IT APPEARS THAT CUMULUS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A WEAK FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL
ALLOW SOUTH WINDS OF 10 KT OR SO TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION. A LITTLE LESS WIND
IS EXPECTED THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WHICH MEANS HIGH TEMPS MAY END
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY/S READINGS. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW A TUTT AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE TUTT AXIS WILL DRAG SOME FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL SURGE TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WARRANTS A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SINCE THE HIGH MOISTURE AND TUTT AXIS LINGERS OVER THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY UNORGANIZED
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THE WHOLE AREA. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND
DOWNWARD DUE TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS WILL TREND
UPWARD AND RESULT IN INCREASING MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES.

THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
QUITE REMARKABLY AND THEREFORE THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY IS
MURKY. ESSENTIALLY THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNSURE HOW FAST THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE CASCADES WILL KICK
OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST AND BRINGS
THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF IS TWO WHOLE DAYS SLOWER. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN AGREE A BIT
MORE WITH THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH OFFER THEIR OWN UNIQUE FORECASTS OF
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET GUIDANCE
WHICH MEANS LOW POPS ARE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...REALLY CANT REMOVE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY YET EITHER. HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO
BROAD BRUSH 20 POPS FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS SYSTEM...BUT ONCE WE GET SOME BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY ON
TIMING WE CAN RAISE POPS FOR THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF
THE TIMING...WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION WE
SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL BY LATE WEEK TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS MEANS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 101  78 101  78 100 /   0   0   0   5  10
WACO, TX             101  74 101  74 100 /   0   0   0   5  20
PARIS, TX             97  73  98  73  95 /   0   0   0   5  20
DENTON, TX           100  75 101  75  99 /   0   0   0   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          98  73  99  74  98 /   0   0   0   5  10
DALLAS, TX           100  79 100  79  99 /   0   0   0   5  10
TERRELL, TX          100  76 100  76  98 /   0   0   0   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         99  75 100  76  98 /   0   0   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  73 100  74  99 /   0   0   0   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX    102  74 103  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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