Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 181131 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
631 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

Challenges the next 24-30 hours will be stratus intrusions and
levels. Currently, airports are experiencing low MVFR conditions
just above 1 kft. However, where wind speeds drop off, there are
brief IFR conditions across the DFW area and this will be TEMPO`d
through 14Z this morning. Waco should remain in the MVFR category.

All sites should warm and mix well by midday, with a brief period
of MVFR above 2 kft late morning, becoming VFR midday, before
stratus arrives again after midnight. Low MVFR cigs should prevail
early Sunday morning, but similar to today, cannot rule out brief
IFR cigs before mid morning. No precipitation is expected with S
winds sustaining around 10 kts, then becoming 5-10 knots during
the nocturnal hours. A cold front across Central and Southern OK
is not expected to reach any of the airports.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/
Several days of above-normal temperatures are ahead as we remain
in a southerly flow regime with no shortage of warm, humid air.
Despite this supply of moisture, rain chances will be fairly
limited though the middle of next week without much forcing for
ascent available. The main focus continues to be a deep storm
system progged to affect the Southern Plains toward the end of the
week which could bring some strong or severe storms to the
region.

A weak cold front was making slow southward progress through
southern OK this morning. This front is expected to stall in the
vicinity of the Red River without much support to push it farther
south. While this front was able to generate a few storms in AR
yesterday evening, this won`t be the case in our area due to a
strong capping inversion. However, a couple rain showers beneath
the cap can`t be ruled out in our northeastern counties through
the morning hours as the front approaches. Otherwise, the morning
stratus will scatter by this afternoon allowing temperatures to
warm into the upper 70s and 80s.

The stalled front will begin lifting back to the north late today
and Sunday as above-normal heights build over much of the
southern US. This stagnant large-scale pattern will keep us warm
and dry Sunday through Tuesday with temperatures around 15 degrees
above normal at times. Monday will probably be the warmest day of
the bunch with winds becoming a bit more southwesterly in
response to a developing surface low in the TX Panhandle. By
Monday night and early Tuesday, another cold front will be moving
southward through the Plains associated with a northern stream
shortwave. Just like this morning`s front, it is not expected to
make it very far south and it should stall around the Red River as
it outruns the forcing displaced well to the north. A few rain
showers will be possible north of I-20 on Tuesday night and
Wednesday when the front should be stalled near the Red River,
thus have continued a mention of showers for areas roughly north
of I-20; a strong cap should once again prevent thunderstorms from
developing.

Big changes will begin taking shape on Wednesday and Thursday as a
deep upper trough develops across the western US. Strong lee
cyclogenesis will occur on Thursday resulting in very breezy
conditions across much of the Southern Plains. This regime will
pull a tongue of high theta-e air northward through many of the
Plains states. There have been discrepancies among extended
guidance regarding how much the upper low will deepen and how far
south it will track, but the past couple model runs have shown the
ECMWF beginning to come more in line with the GFS`s deeper,
southern solution. As the potent upper trough moves east Thursday
night and Friday, it will be capable of generating widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Given the thermodynamic profiles
characterized by very warm, moist surface air and steep lapse
rates aloft, as well as the very strong forcing from the
approaching low, some strong or severe storms will be possible if
this solution verifies. Models will keep changing the exact track
of this system over the next few days as they generally struggle
with upper low placement, so we`ll continue to monitor this
potential as new data arrives.

-Stalley

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  63  85  64  87 /  10   5   5   5   5
Waco                80  60  82  60  86 /  10   5   5   5   5
Paris               77  59  82  60  84 /  20  10   5   5   5
Denton              82  62  84  62  87 /  10   5   5   5   5
McKinney            79  61  83  61  86 /  20   5   5   5   5
Dallas              82  64  85  65  87 /  10   5   5   5   5
Terrell             80  61  83  60  86 /  20   5   5   5   5
Corsicana           80  62  82  60  85 /  10   5   5   5   5
Temple              81  61  82  60  86 /  10   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       84  59  86  60  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/26



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