Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 270405 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1105 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY /14-16Z/.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE METROPLEX AROUND 15Z ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ONE MORE NIGHT
AND DAY DUE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL KEEP QPF GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND
MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE
EAST. THEREFORE...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL BRING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING WAVE. WE WILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE HIGH PLAINS STORMS CAN HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY STALL NEAR OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION SO WE WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND THE CENTURY MARK ON
SUNDAY AND BEGIN A COOL DOWN ON MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
STILL BE HOT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD COOL NEARLY 10 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 101  79  95  74 /   0   0  10  40  20
WACO, TX              76  99  77  98  74 /   0   0   5  30  30
PARIS, TX             74  96  74  92  68 /   0   0  20  40  10
DENTON, TX            77 100  76  93  70 /   0   0  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  74  93  69 /   0   0  20  40  20
DALLAS, TX            80 100  80  96  75 /   0   0  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           76  98  76  95  72 /   0   0  10  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  76  94  74 /   0   0   5  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  97  73 /   0   0   5  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74 102  74  94  69 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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