Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200902
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
402 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
After several days of scattered rain across North and Central
Texas...we will get a few quiet days before on and off rain
chances return for next week. The upper trough responsible for
yesterday`s rain and thunderstorms is centered over eastern Kansas
with the trough axis extending southward into North Texas. With
the lack of any appreciable dry air advection into the
region...ample low level moisture in the cool airmass has resulted
in extensive low cloud cover and some fog. The low clouds will
likely persist through midday then begin scattering out this
afternoon. Temperatures will be slow to warm initially today then
should respond into the upper 70s by afternoon with breaks in the
clouds.

Weak upper ridging will prevail across the region through the
weekend with strengthening southerly flow and warming
temperatures. Highs on Saturday should climb into the mid and
upper 80s. Despite the ridging...ample low level moisture will be
in place across the Southern Plains and with weak forcing...scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline in
northwest Oklahoma late Saturday afternoon. These should organize
into a cluster and head southeast through late evening...running
into a strengthening cap as they head in our general direction. We
will have to keep an eye on these storms possibly making it into
North Texas late Saturday night but as of right now...will keep
PoPs out of the forecast.

Slightly better storm chances arrive on Sunday as the western U.S.
low moves a little closer and sends a piece of shortwave energy
into the central Plains. The dryline will move a little farther
east across the Panhandle and west-central Texas Sunday afternoon
where convection is again expected to develop. Upper level winds
would tend to send any organized convection southeast into our
area late Sunday evening. Areas along and west of Interstate 35
would have the best chance for storms during this time.

As we head into next week...the upper pattern does not change a
great deal with a large trough over the western U.S. This should
continue to support periodic waves of lift across the southern
Plains resulting in active dryline convection each afternoon
through much of next week. While storm chances are not high on any
particular day...we will be unstable each afternoon with steep
lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that we will remain capped
during much of the time...but any organized convection that
develops off to the west would likely move in our general
direction with the best chances occurring in the late afternoon
to late evening timeframe. The latest forecast will show 20-30
PoPs through much of next week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1126 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/
Clearing skies from southwest to northeast as seen on satellite
does not bode well for the hope of maintaining good visibilities
overnight. The departing upper trough, light winds and already
minimal temperature/dewpoint spreads likely means fog development
as we get into the late night and early Friday morning hours. The
latest forecast set will be a challenge, but confidence is rising
that we will see IFR and possibly LIFR by daybreak at all
locations. KDAL and KDFW may be an exception due to the heat
island effect, so surface visibilities may remain a little higher
than their surrounding areas. Even if visibilities remain good,
we should still see low cigs develop prior to sunrise. Conditions
are expected to improve mid to late Friday morning.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  64  88  69  83 /   0   0   5  10  10
Waco                81  63  87  68  86 /   0   0   5  10  10
Paris               77  61  83  64  81 /   0   0   5  10  10
Denton              79  61  87  66  82 /   0   0   5  10  10
McKinney            79  61  86  66  83 /   0   0   5  10  10
Dallas              81  64  88  69  84 /   0   0   5  10  10
Terrell             80  62  87  67  84 /   0   0   5  10  10
Corsicana           80  64  87  68  85 /   0   0   5  10  10
Temple              82  63  86  68  85 /   0   0   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       80  62  86  67  83 /   0   0   5  10  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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