Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 190021
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
721 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions prevail across North Texas with a light southeast
flow. Low level moisture remains more than adequate for another
round of MVFR cigs late overnight into early Sunday morning.
Southerly flow off the surface will be a little stronger tonight
so we may see a slightly earlier onset to low cigs than last
night. Otherwise, skies should scatter during the late morning
with southerly flow prevailing. Outside of the low clouds, no
significant aviation concerns are expected through the period.

Dunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/
A fairly persistent and dry forecast is expected for the next
several days as upper level ridging dominates the area. The next
5-6 days will generally be characterized by warm days, muggy
nights, and breezy afternoon winds. By the end of next week, a
strong upper level system is expected to move through the Plains
bringing a chance for rain to all of North and Central Texas.

For the most part, high temperatures through Friday will range in
the upper 70s to upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. For the next several days, the winds below H700 will
prevail from the west and southwest, and model data suggests some
drier air will mix across the region, likely resulting in an
overall decrease in cloud cover. There will still be some morning
stratus and afternoon cumulus clouds, but the combination of the
upper level ridge, southwest flow through the lower levels of the
atmosphere and limited cloud cover will help temperatures climb
well above normal for this time of year. Monday will be the
hottest day of the week as afternoon temperatures soar into the
mid and upper 80s across most of the region with temperatures in
the lower 90s in our northwest counties.

A weak front will approach the Red River Tuesday night, and could
possibly seep into North Texas. The presence of the front is
expected to result in some higher cloud cover in that area that
will keep temperatures a few degrees lower on Wednesday. The ECMWF
develops convection Tuesday afternoon near a triple point just
northwest of our CWA, but lack of forcing underneath the upper
level ridge is expected to suppress precipitation chances. We will
have to keep an eye on Tuesday afternoon but otherwise have
removed the mention of showers from the forecast. On Wednesday
night and Thursday, we expect an increase in south winds and cloud
cover in response to the upper level trough moving across the
western CONUS.

At this time, much of the day Thursday looks dry as the upper
level trough and best forcing will still be to our west. However,
depending on the location of the dryline, it`s possible we could
have a few storms approaching our western counties by Thursday
evening. The best rain chances currently continue on Thursday
night and Friday as the upper level system crosses the Plains, and
the dryline/front pushes through the region. We should be dry by
Saturday with temperatures closer to normal expected over the
weekend. There continues to be a severe weather potential with
this system, but the longer range models vary in the track and
timing of the upper level trough. The ECMWF is farther south with
the upper level trough moving through OK/KS and the surface low
through OK. The GFS and Canadian are farther north which could
limit the amount of forcing along the dryline/front in Texas. As
we get closer to the event, we will be able to further refine the
severe weather parameters as well, but so far, the forecasted
shear and instability values all support a severe storm threat.

JLDunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  87  64  88  63 /   5   5   5   5   5
Waco                62  82  61  87  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
Paris               60  81  59  85  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
Denton              62  86  63  88  61 /   5   5   5   5   5
McKinney            62  83  62  87  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
Dallas              63  86  64  88  63 /   5   5   5   5   5
Terrell             62  83  61  87  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
Corsicana           62  82  61  86  61 /   5   5   5   5   5
Temple              61  82  62  87  60 /  10   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       61  88  60  90  59 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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