Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 162009
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
309 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The heat will continue for the next few days as upper level high
pressure remains over the region. Afternoon highs through
Wednesday will be well above normal and mainly in the upper 80s
and lower 90s. Some mid 90s are even possible across the western
zones, especially on Monday afternoon.
A strong fetch of Gulf moisture will also keep humidity high for
mid October with dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s and lower
70s through Wednesday. It will also result in warm temperatures
overnight with lows mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
A deep surface lee trough across the Central High Plains will result
in a moderate surface pressure gradient and breezy conditions across
across the Southern Plains through Wednesday. Wind speeds in the
10 to 20 mph range with some gusts around 30 mph will be likely.
Changes are looming on the horizon as a low pressure system develops
across Western CONUS. The upper trough will move into the Central
Plains Wednesday and allow a cold front to move south into North
Texas. A few showers and storms may develop just ahead of the
front across the Red River Wednesday afternoon as large scale lift
increases. There could also be a few warm air advection
showers/storms across the southeast zones. The better rain and
storm chances will occur with and behind the cold front Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. Precipitation chances should end
quickly from northwest to southeast Thursday once large scale
subsidence moves in behind the departing upper trough.
Much cooler and drier weather is expected Thursday night through
Saturday with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs mainly in the 60s
Friday and 70s Saturday.
Upper level high pressure will build into the region Sunday and Gulf
moisture will begin to increase which will result in warmer and
slightly more humid conditions by Sunday afternoon with temperatures
warming into the lower 80s in most locations.
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016/
Lee Rockies surface troughing associated with a Pacific Northwest
storm system continues to create a narrow surface pressure
gradient in the Plains. The result has been persistent strong
southerly winds at the lower levels of the atmosphere. These
winds have mixed to the surface and we can expect south winds
around 20 KT to continue through late afternoon. Winds will
partially decouple around sunset. Speeds may fall below 10KT for a
short time this evening, but will likely crank back up to 15 kt or
so around midnight local as as stout low level jet develops. It
looks like winds will be more veered Monday morning compared to
this weekend, so we may not have quite as much in the way of MVFR
cigs. However, some guidance continues to advertise stratus making
it to KACT 09-10Z and all the way into the metroplex around 12Z,
so we will continue to advertise a few hours of MVFR Monday
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 91 71 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 5
Waco 71 92 69 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 5
Paris 68 89 68 88 67 / 0 0 0 5 5
Denton 69 90 69 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 5
McKinney 70 89 69 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 5
Dallas 72 91 72 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 5
Terrell 70 90 69 89 69 / 0 0 0 5 5
Corsicana 70 90 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 5 5
Temple 70 91 68 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 5
Mineral Wells 67 93 67 92 65 / 0 0 0 5 5