Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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432
FXUS64 KFWD 191732 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with diurnally
driven cumulus between 3-6 kft during the afternoon hours. The
winds will generally be less than 10 kts but will vary between a
south to southeast direction this afternoon and evening, to a
south and southwest direction in the morning hours. Any convective
activity this afternoon is expected to be east of the region.

JLDunn

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 1102 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

There will be no relief from the heat today as temperatures as of
10am are in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values are
already climbing into the mid 90s. With the upper level ridge
centered along the OK/KS border this morning, subsidence is
expected to be sufficient to prevent any precipitation today. With
expected high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and and dew
points in the upper 60s to mid 70s, any outdoor activities will be
uncomfortable. Analysis of the surface moisture field this morning
shows that slightly drier air from aloft has started to mix down,
especially west of Interstate 35 where dew points are running 2-4
degrees lower compared to 24 hours ago. This trend is expected to
continue today, limiting our heat index values to 94-104 degrees
with a few isolated 105 degrees. Given the isolated nature of the
105 degrees, have opted not to issue a Heat Advisory for the
afternoon. This does not mean that conditions will not be
dangerous for those partaking in outdoor activities. All
precautions should be taken to reduce time outdoors and spend time
in air conditioned locations if possible.

Hernandez

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

Early this morning, a few showers had developed across East TX
beneath the southern periphery of the H5 ridge, analyzed to be
across Oklahoma. This activity should wane through the morning
hours with the amount of mid-level dry air invading from the north
and I`ve left only silent 10 PoPs across northeastern/eastern
zones. Examination of the Experimental HRRR and NAM NEST hi-res
output indicates that this activity will also diminish towards
daybreak.

Otherwise, the main weather headline for the next 24 hours will
be the heat and humidity across North and Central TX. Experimental
water vapor imagery shows the H5 ridge quite well and with
increasing subsidence as this feature takes hold across the
region, the threat for precipitation in theory should be near zero
for most areas. The fly in the ointment to the PoP forecast
today, however, could be what appears to be subtle ascent in the
form of mid/upper level clouds sliding southwestward along the
southern periphery of the ridge. The Experimental HRRR does hint
at the potential for afternoon convection north of I-20, but given
the seemingly impressive amount of mid-level dry air as indicated
by current water vapor imagery and forecast soundings, I`ll hedge
towards a drier solution. Radar and satellite trends will need to
be monitored, however, as if a storm does develop, it`ll likely
have the ability to produce strong outflow winds given the hot
boundary layer.

With regards to temperatures today---it should be another hot and
humid day, especially across northeastern and eastern zones.
Across the west and southwest, there should be enough mixing such
that dewpoints fall into the mid to upper 60s. Farther north and east,
however, such deep mixing is unlikely and afternoon dewpoints
will likely only fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. With
afternoon temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s, heat
index values will be near 105 in some spots. The isolated nature
of these near 105 degree readings, however, precludes the issuance
of a heat advisory at this time. If dewpoints really struggle to
mix, a short fused advisory may be warranted.

24-Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/
/Wednesday through Monday/

With the upper ridge continuing to build across the central and
southern Plains through the end of the week, temperatures will
remain hot and rain chances will remain minimal across North
Texas. The only exception may be in our extreme southeastern
counties each afternoon from Wednesday through the end of the week
where some very isolated sea breeze activity could sneak in
before evening. Coverage should be less than 10%. Otherwise, the
weather pattern will be rather benign with temperatures creeping
into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees by Friday and continuing
through the weekend. The main concern through the remainder of the
week will be the humid conditions with dewpoints only mixing into
the upper 60s each afternoon. This will yield heat index values
in the 105 to 107 degree range from Wednesday through the weekend
which would likely require a multi-day heat advisory for much of
the region.


The upper ridge looks like it may retreat back to the west by
early next week as flow over the western U.S. becomes a little
more amplified. This could send a weak front down into the
Arklatex region sometime on Monday and could serve as a focus for
a little better coverage of showers and storms. We`ll keep an eye
on this possibility.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  79  98  80  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                97  76  98  77  98 /   5   5   0   0   5
Paris               95  74  95  75  95 /  10   0   0   0   0
Denton              98  76  98  77  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            95  75  96  76  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              98  80  98  80  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             97  76  96  76  96 /  10   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           95  78  97  77  97 /  10   5   0   0   0
Temple              98  76  99  76  99 /   5   5   5   0   5
Mineral Wells       97  74  97  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/08



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