Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 201831
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
131 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH OF A KHHW /HUGO OKLAHOMA/ TO
KDTO /DENTON/ TO KABI /ABILENE/ LINE AS OF 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z....AND
INTO WACO BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

HAVE PLACED A VCSH IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AFTER 21Z FOR THE
LOW POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
NORTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
PLACED VCSH BACK INTO THE METROPLEX TAFS AFTER 09Z.

AT WACO...HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE TAF STARTING AT 21Z...WITH
A TEMPO TSRA FOR THE 22Z TO 02Z PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OR NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS NOTED EARLIER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH VCSH EXPECTED SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN WACO FROM 06Z
ONWARD.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
A COLD FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH FROM OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THIS MORNING BUT WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCERS. SINCE MANY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SAW VERY
HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY EVENING...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN MORE FLOODING. WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDDAY AND EXPAND IT EAST AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE
ALL COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...
INCLUDING THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. WE EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
TO SLOWLY TRANSITION SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THE BEST STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE
WILL EVEN BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE
LOWER THAN IT WAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ONLY GOOD THING
IS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH SAW VERY LITTLE RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AND RESULT IN A VERY WET AND UNSTABLE WEEKEND ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW SINCE THIS EXPECTED RAIN IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW. HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL
BE GATHERING STRENGTH OFF THE WEST COAST AND SHOULD BRING MORE
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  68  62  75  65 /  50  30  40  50  30
WACO, TX              61  73  63  79  68 /  60  30  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             62  71  57  70  62 /  50  30  30  50  30
DENTON, TX            58  68  58  73  65 /  50  30  40  50  30
MCKINNEY, TX          61  70  60  74  64 /  50  30  30  50  30
DALLAS, TX            62  68  63  76  68 /  50  30  40  50  30
TERRELL, TX           62  72  62  77  67 /  50  30  30  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         64  73  63  76  68 /  50  30  30  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            66  75  64  79  70 /  50  30  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  67  59  76  66 /  50  30  50  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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