Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 291804 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
104 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF
THE MID LEVELS...BUT DRY AIR REMAINS BELOW 700MB. MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT FOR
TAF SITES...THIS SHOULD ONLY MEAN CLOUDS ABOVE FL100. ALTHOUGH A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE A QUIET AREA BETWEEN A WEST TEXAS SHORTWAVE
AND AN AREA OF BETTER FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SLOW AS DIURNAL HEATING ERODES THE
SHALLOW AIR MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DESPITE ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
METROPLEX...VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LIMITED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG IT.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
EXPECT MINIMAL CHANGES TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...ANOTHER DRY FORECAST IN ON TAP FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

A SHORTWAVE AND PENDANT COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER TODAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT THIS WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STORM OR TWO...MAY AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS
PATTERN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA. AS OF 8Z /3 AM/...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER WAS ELEVATED AND
LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE LOWER
LEVELS SATURATE THOUGH...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO REACH THE
SURFACE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED OFF OF THE GULF
COAST OF LA/MS TO SLIDE NORTHWARD NEXT WEEK AND BRING RAINFALL TO
EAST TEXAS...JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST WILL BROADEN BUT REMAIN
CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP PROVIDE OUR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  75  96  75  95 /  20  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              95  72  96  72  96 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  72  93  70  93 /  20  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            97  73  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  93  74  94 /  20  20  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            96  75  96  75  95 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  94  72  94 /  20  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         94  72  94  72  94 /  20  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            93  72  94  72  95 /  20  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  95  72  96 /  20  20  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05


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