Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 291750
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...

A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAWN.
CURRENTLY MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS PRODUCING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH CAPE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2500J/KG. LATEST RADAR DATA IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AND IN THE VICINITY OF WACO.

DUE TO THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION..SOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL..DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ACT TAF SITES
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

50

&&

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECASTS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD...ALONG
WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/35W. A
STRONG NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES ROTATING NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT MIDDAY. A BROAD SURFACE LOW
AND TRIPLE-POINT WAS NOTED FROM SNYDER TO SEYMOUR...WITH A WARM
FRONT TAILING BACK ESE ALONG A BRIDGEPORT/BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...
TO COOPER/SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A DRYLINE TAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FROM THE SURFACE LOW WAS ALREADY BULGING EAST TOWARD ABILENE IN
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONGAFTERNOON
HEATING TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE BY 2 PM CDT AND AFTER FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
STORMS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF I-35 IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. INITIALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOW LCL/S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SURFACE DEW PT TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGH AND IN THE LOWER-MID 70S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIG WILD CARD LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HOW LONG DISCRETE STORMS WILL
OCCUR...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OCCURS QUICKLY AT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AND MAY RESULT IN INFLOW INTERRUPTION WITH IF STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER.

IF ACTIVITY BECOMES TOO WIDESPREAD TOO FAST...THEN DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR
LEWPS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE
TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA WITH CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON FORCAST SOUNDSING.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
CELLS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PUSHING BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CAPE BELOW CLOUD BASE FOR POTENTIAL
TORNADOGENESIS. SEVERAL OFFICES INCLUDING OURS ARE SENDING UP
SPECIAL MIDDAY SOUNDINGS TO ASSESS OUR ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL
AND THE FEELING IS THIS COULD BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY.

AFTER COLLABORATION...THE ENHANCED RISK WAS EXTENDED SOUTH ALL
THE WAY INTO EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS DUE TO THE
STRONG HODOGRAPHS AND INSTABILITY. ALL PARTIES SHOULD BE ON HIGH
ALERT BEGINNING AFTER 2 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. A SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR E/SE COUNTIES WITH THE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT.

HYDROLOGICALLY...THOUGH LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD LIMIT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME
AGGRAVATION OF RIVER FLOODING THROUGH RUN-OFF ACROSS PARTICULARLY
THE TRINITY AND SABINE BASINS. THE MID-LOWER BRAZOS COULD SEE SOME
EFFECTS AS WELL.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  65  80  58  78 /  70  40  10   5   5
WACO                82  64  83  58  80 /  70  50  20  10   5
PARIS               78  65  78  57  79 /  80  70  30  10   5
DENTON              79  61  79  54  76 /  60  40  10   5   5
MCKINNEY            79  63  79  56  77 /  70  50  10  10   5
DALLAS              81  65  82  59  79 /  70  50  10  10   5
TERRELL             81  65  81  57  79 /  80  60  20  10   5
CORSICANA           82  66  83  60  80 /  70  60  20  10   5
TEMPLE              81  64  83  60  81 /  70  50  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS       81  58  79  54  75 /  50  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

50



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