Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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727
FXUS64 KFWD 022334 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

STRONG WEST WINDS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL REDUCE IN
SPEED BY 02-03Z THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BY THAT SAME TIME AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. AFTER
03-04Z...WILL PREVAIL WIND SPEEDS AROUND 11-12 KTS BUT SPEEDS WILL
VARY BETWEEN 5-15 KTS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS FAR AS
ITS IMPACT ON TEXAS WEATHER...THE STORM SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT THAT TRAVERSED OUR AREA YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE PLUMMETED TO THE UPPER TEENS FOR AREAS
ALONG/WEST OF I-35 WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MILLS AND LAMPASAS COUNTIES
THROUGH 6PM WITH A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA.

AN AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A SURFACE TROUGH...OR
SECONDARY COLD FRONT...STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS...WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED AND VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST LEADING TO SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO
SHERMAN LINE DROPPING NEAR/BELOW FREEZING.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ZONAL FLOW WITH NEUTRAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH LITTLE/NO MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EACH DAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN BY FRIDAY.

OUR FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL
BE INCAPABLE OF PROVIDING MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK
WITH. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE MOSTLY LIKELY AREAS TO SEE ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...AND HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING A FEW DAYS INTO THE
FORECAST...THERE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
SYSTEM/S TRACK...AND THEREFORE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
NORMAL.

STALLEY

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  50  32  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              35  53  29  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             33  49  28  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            32  49  27  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          34  49  29  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            36  50  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           36  50  30  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         37  53  32  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            35  53  29  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     31  50  25  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ142-156.

&&

$$

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