Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
709 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the period,
although similar to the last few nights, ample low level moisture
will likely lead to some MVFR cigs across parts of the area toward
morning. Flow off the surface is a little more southwesterly
tonight so this should favor mainly the eastern airports for MVFR
cigs, specifically DFW/DAL. For now, will just go with a few hours
of tempo MVFR cigs at DFW/DAL and at Waco. Otherwise, southerly
flow will prevail through the period with VFR conditions.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the region for the
next several days resulting in above normal temperatures and a
fairly dry forecast. Tonight probably won`t be quite as muggy
despite overnight lows still in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Isolated
areas of fog may develop late tonight and early Monday morning,
but wind speeds are expected to remain higher at 7-15 mph which
should prevent fog development for the most part.

Monday will be breezy in response to a surface low tracking across
Oklahoma and a weak front tracking south through the Plains.
South-southwest winds of 10-20 mph with higher gusts will occur in
the afternoon. In addition, temperatures will be hot in the lower
90s to lower 80s. The combination of hot temperatures, breezy
winds and low humidity values will result in an elevated fire
weather threat west of Interstate 35/35W.

The front will remain stalled in Oklahoma on Tuesday resulting in
another breezy and warm day for North and Central Texas. Fire
weather concerns will continue in our west and northwest counties
on Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon convection may attempt to develop
near the front, but if any storms manage to develop, the mean
steering flow would likely drive these storms east. The area we
will need to continue to watch is just northwest of the CWA where
most of the models place the surface low and triple point by the
late afternoon and evening hours. The upper level ridge overhead
is expected to suppress most convective chances but most models
continue to output QPF near this triple point. Forecast soundings
indicate the atmosphere will be too dry and too capped for
convection and continue to leave the forecast dry Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

The models are in pretty good agreement that the weak front will
slide into North Texas on Wednesday, stall across our northern and
northwestern counties, and then retreat north Wednesday night.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly cooler behind the front
with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s, but lower to mid
80s ahead of the front. There are very low chances for
precipitation near the front, but a lack of lift combined with a
strong cap and a shallow moisture layer beneath the cap suggests
the area will likely remain dry. If any rain develops, it will
likely be light rain and have kept silent 10 PoPs for now with no
mention of precipitation.

A large, powerful upper level trough will be moving across the
western CONUS in the latter half of the week and will cross the
Plains on Friday. The latest model runs are in surprisingly
pretty good agreement on the timing and track of this system and
have consistently been highlighting this system for several days
now. Rain chances enter the forecast starting Thursday night and
continue through Friday evening. As the upper level trough
approaches from the west on Thursday, a dryline will sharpen to
our west and storms are expected to develop along the boundary as
large scale lift spreads across the Southern Plains. Based on the
latest guidance, these storms will spread into the region
Thursday night. Given the strength of this system, storms may also
be able to develop in the warm sector ahead of the dryline
Thursday night into Friday. This system certainly has the
potential to produce severe storms in North and Central Texas but
the amount of instability is in question at this time, largely due
to the timing of the system (overnight into Friday morning). At
this time, a squall line along the eastward moving dryline may be
the most likely storm evolution as it moves through the region,
but if the system is still moving through our eastern counties in
the afternoon hours on Friday, another severe storm potential
could exist then, too. It is still too far out to refine the
severe weather parameters, and we continue to keep a close eye on
this system.

A front will move through the region in the wake of the upper
level trough and dryline resulting in slightly cooler temperatures
over the weekend. However, a quick warmup is expected early next
week ahead of another strong upper level trough moving into the
Plains. At this time, the models indicate moisture return will be
sufficient enough for another chance for rain and storms with the
second system.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  88  63  86  63 /   0   0   0   5   5
Waco                61  85  59  84  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               59  83  58  82  57 /   0   0   0   5   5
Denton              62  87  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   5   5
McKinney            62  85  60  82  59 /   0   0   0   5   5
Dallas              64  88  63  85  63 /   0   0   0   5   5
Terrell             62  83  60  82  61 /   0   0   0   5   5
Corsicana           62  83  61  83  62 /   0   0   0   5   5
Temple              62  84  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       59  90  59  87  58 /   0   0   0   5   5



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