Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 142010 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WILL BE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL PUT THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS WE WILL HAVE
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

AFTER A COOL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...COMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

58

&&


.EXTENDED...
/THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE FRONT RETREATS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE
ALOFT. ONLY UPGRADED TO 20 POPS AT THE MOMENT AS THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING MECHANISM
PRESENT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY FOR NOW AS THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN TO AGREE ON SOME ASPECTS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH
PROGRESSING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE TROUGH...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
LIKELY INTO TEXAS BY SUNDAY. IF THE MODELS ARE INDEED HANDLING
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WELL...MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

STALLEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 141 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILINGS AND STORM POTENTIAL.

CEILINGS...
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND EAST TEXAS HAVE ONLY SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS...BUT PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS LINGERED IN BETWEEN ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT...EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE...WITH VEERING FLOW AT 925MB RETURNING
GULF MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL/NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS...LIKELY ENSUING AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. WITH CONTINUALLY MODIFYING POSTFRONTAL
AIR...THIS DECK SHOULD SCATTER MORE EFFECTIVELY.

PRECIPITATION...
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WEST TEXAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF METROPLEX SITES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE BENIGN CONVECTION RESULTING IN ONLY MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAFFIC.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  88  72  91  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
WACO, TX              68  90  71  92  73 /  10  10  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             66  84  68  86  69 /  20  20  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            67  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  87  68  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            70  89  72  91  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           66  88  70  90  71 /  10  10  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         67  89  71  91  72 /  10  10  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            68  91  72  91  72 /  10  10  20  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  89  69  88  70 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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