Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 210900
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
400 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Morning satellite imagery shows that extensive low cloud cover
across South Texas is spreading northward. This is in response to
strengthening low level southerly flow ahead of a very slow moving
but large upper level trough over the western U.S. This trough
will linger over the western U.S. through much of the upcoming
week keeping sporadic rain chances across parts of the area almost
every day.

For today...moisture advection will continue across the region
with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s by this
afternoon. The low level warm, moist advection has already
resulted in a few isolated showers across parts of the Hill
Country. As temperatures warm this afternoon...additional isolated
convection is expected to develop. This will be most likely across
our south and southwestern counties. Despite moderate instability
by afternoon...low level winds are fairly weak. Stronger winds
aloft may tend to blow developing updrafts over resulting in
disorganized spotty showers or storms. Coverage of storms is
expected to be around 20%.

On Sunday...the forecast is a little more uncertain. Dryline
convection that develops across west Texas today may try to make a
run at our western counties overnight but should run into
increasing inhibition. About half of the guidance though including
the WRF-NMM keeps the convection together late tonight and then
intensifies it during the day Sunday as it enters our northwest
counties. If this does occur...convection should have ample
instability to continue south across most of the area. While not
typically the favored time for a MCS to move across the
area...will raise PoPs slightly during the day on Sunday. The
alternate scenario is that we stay mostly quiet during the day
Sunday and dryline convection that develops off to the west would
have a decent shot at surviving and moving across North Texas
Sunday night into early Monday.

Monday through Wednesday will all be similar with warm afternoons
and scattered dryline convection mainly off to the west. Best
chances for thunderstorms would likely be on Monday. By Tuesday
and Wednesday...winds aloft become more southwesterly and our
capping begins to increase a bit resulting in less potential for
thunderstorms to move into our area.

Thunderstorm chances again increase for Thursday and Friday as a
stronger piece of shortwave energy moves out of the southwest U.S.
and into the southern Plains. With warm and humid conditions
expected to be in place across North and Central Texas through the
upcoming week...we will be unstable in the afternoons with steep
lapse rates aloft and moderate deep layer shear. Thunderstorms
that move into North Texas any of the next several days will have
the potential to be severe.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1101 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/
Not much change from the 00Z TAF package with some patchy fog
developing overnight and visibility restrictions generally between
3 and 5 miles. MVFR ceilings currently over South Texas will move
north overnight and should reach Waco around sunrise and the
Metroplex sites shortly after that. These low clouds will lift
above 3000 ft around midday but will not scatter out until
Saturday evening.

A southeast wind will prevail at speeds between 4 and 10 knots
through Saturday evening.

Although a few showers and storms may develop Saturday
afternoon across the Concho Valley and southwestern sections of
the forecast area...they should have no impact on any of the
terminals through the evening.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  70  85  71  84 /   5  10  20  30  40
Waco                85  68  85  70  84 /  10  10  20  20  30
Paris               82  62  84  66  82 /   5  10  10  30  40
Denton              84  67  84  69  83 /   5  10  20  40  40
McKinney            84  67  84  69  83 /   5  10  20  30  40
Dallas              86  70  86  71  84 /   5  10  20  30  40
Terrell             86  66  85  69  83 /   5  10  20  20  40
Corsicana           86  69  86  69  84 /   5  10  20  20  40
Temple              84  69  85  70  84 /  20  10  20  20  30
Mineral Wells       84  67  85  69  82 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.