Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 052135
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS IT
DOES...A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE PERMAIN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE AIRMAS
ARCROSS THE REGION IS QUITE DRY. DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
DEW POINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO WE SHOULD STILL MANAGE
TO GET SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...BUT SOME 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND I-45. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOUISANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 SATURDAY MORNING...AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THOSE AREAS
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH THAT BUILT IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

AIDED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
30S. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH MONDAY WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
A FEW CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE INCLUDE WIND SHIFTS...SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND BE POSITIONED BETWEEN DFW AND WACO BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE METROPLEX WINDS TO TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST IN THE SPAN OF A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. AT WACO...WINDS WILL SIMPLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE LOW NEARS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 6 AM AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
ISSUANCE TO REFLECT THIS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO TURBULENCE
AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY RAIN ACTIVITY.
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW IS EAST OF THE TAF SITES SATURDAY
MORNING...WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONS OF BKN025 TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. HOWEVER...IS IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS MAY BECOME AS LOW AS
FL010 AT TIMES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SUCH A
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR ALL SITES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10
KTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STALLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  38  54  37  62  37 /  30  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              36  54  32  63  35 /  30   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  52  33  59  34 /  40  30   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  53  33  62  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  52  33  60  35 /  50  20   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            39  54  37  62  38 /  40  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  52  33  61  35 /  50  30   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         38  52  35  63  36 /  40  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  57  32  65  36 /  30   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     34  55  32  63  33 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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