Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 282326
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AT WACO AROUND 13Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING ANY MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STALLEY

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN A SLOW TRANSITION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AND EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT OF THE
UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN UP NORTH TEXAS TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY ON FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...BUT THEN SHOW LESS
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT. AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLOSE TO FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THIS WEEKEND AND WOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 101 DEGREES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT SUPPRESSED DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. 75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 101  80  99  77 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              76 100  76 100  76 /   5   0   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             75 100  75  97  72 /   0   5   5  20  20
DENTON, TX            76  99  75  98  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75 100  76  98  74 /   0   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            79 101  81  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75 100  77  99  74 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  77  99  76 /   5   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  75  98  77 /   5   0   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  98  74  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

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