Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 172035
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
335 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...HEADLINES...Storm chances late Thursday and then again late
Friday into the weekend...

One storm ends and another begins ... While one storm system
exited the area today another storm system will begin impacting
north Texas by late afternoon tomorrow. The upper level low that
was responsible for the storms that rolled through late last night
into this morning has moved off to the north and east leaving
behind it plenty of sunshine and dry air. This nice weather will
be short lived as another upper level low that is currently over
the Intermountain West will drop southward into Colorado tomorrow.
While this last storm system was a "quick hitter" this next storm
system will be slow moving and bring with it several days worth of
storm chances.

The first round of storms will be Thursday afternoon and evening
as a surface low pressure system will accompany the aforementioned
upper level low in Colorado. The surface low will set up near the
Texas panhandle and showers and thunderstorms will form along the
dry line in west and northwest Texas tomorrow afternoon. The dry
line should be near Wichita Falls by mid afternoon and storms
will translate eastward into north central Texas by late afternoon
and early evening. While coverage is not expected to be
widespread any storms that do occur will have the potential to be
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats. The
tornado threat will not be as high as our neighbors to the north
in Oklahoma; however, tornadoes cannot be ruled out with
tomorrow`s storms in north Texas. Severe storms should be
primarily confined to areas west of I-35 as that is where the
greatest instability is being progged. Having said that, the
forecast soundings for DFW certainly look favorable for severe
weather late afternoon into early evening as there is plenty of
CAPE and moisture. There is a bit of a cap to overcome and low
level shear is not overly impressive but the potential certainly
exists for severe storms to impact portions of the DFW metroplex
tomorrow. The latest couple of runs of the Texas Tech WRF are also
showing storms holding together and impacting the DFW metroplex
in the late afternoon to early evening hours.

Friday morning and early afternoon there will be a brief respite
and then storm chances will increase again Friday afternoon and
evening and continue into the weekend. The upper level low will
deepen into an upper level trof late Friday and slowly move
eastward through the weekend. Model solutions are starting to come
into more consensus that we will see a dry line induced severe
storm threat again on Friday afternoon and evening transitioning
to a period of more widespread rain and thunderstorms with some
areas of heavy rain and flooding possible from Friday night into
Saturday. By Friday night, a vigorous surface low pressure system
will set up to the east of the upper level trof. The GFS, ECMWF,
and Canadian are all showing a deep surface low in the upper
Plains states by Saturday morning with a front trailing southward
into North Texas. This front will move slowly across north Texas
throughout the day on Saturday and into early Sunday. At this
time, the severe potential seems relatively low on Sunday;
however, the heavy rain potential ramps up. The slow movement of
the front coupled with an extended period of PWATs in the 100-150%
range from late Friday through early Sunday is giving us some
concern that areas of heavy rain and flooding may be possible this
weekend. As is usual though, the devil is in the details and where
exactly these heavy rain bands set up are TBD and we will provide
a better estimate for areas of concern with later forecast
packages.

The front will finally clear the area by Sunday afternoon and
again a brief respite from storms will occur from Sunday afternoon
through early Monday. There is some uncertainty in the models
beyond that as the GFS is trying to build in High Pressure Sunday
afternoon and persist it through Monday and then bring in our next
storm system on Tuesday. The ECMWF is not quite as judicious with
keeping the high in place as long and its depicting the high being
overcome by the next low pressure system to the west as early as
Monday afternoon. Needless to say, the forecast for early next
week is low confidence at this point. The medium range to long
range forecast though in general is showing a continued unsettled
and progressive pattern with several storm systems potentially
impacting the area next week. The timing and details for next week will
be ironed out as we get closer, but it appears as though we will
have only short periods of time (perhaps a day to day and a half)
of clear weather followed by more storm chances then clearing
then more storm chances.

HOETH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017/
/18Z TAFS/

Main concern through the TAF period will be the return of lower
cigs during the overnight hours and convective chances late in the
day on Thursday. Southerly flow will prevail through the period
but low level flow above the surface will become more favorable to
transport deeper moisture northward during the overnight hours
ahead of an upper trough. Low clouds should rapidly develop and
spread north into the region after midnight. Widespread MVFR cigs
are expected by 7Z. There is some potential for IFR cigs but for
now will keep those confined to the Waco area. Otherwise,
conditions should improve some during the late morning hours with
MVFR prevailing into the early afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline tomorrow
afternoon. This should be well west of the major airports but may
have an impact on westbound departures/arrivals. Some of this
convection may tend to move eastward through the late evening
hours. At this time, we`ll keep the mention of TS out of the
current TAF and continue to monitor potential.

Dunn


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  90  72  86  71 /  10  30  40  40  60
Waco                72  89  72  88  72 /  10  30  40  30  40
Paris               71  86  70  84  69 /  10  20  30  30  50
Denton              70  90  70  84  69 /  10  30  40  40  60
McKinney            71  88  70  84  70 /  10  20  40  40  60
Dallas              75  91  72  86  73 /  10  30  40  40  50
Terrell             73  88  71  86  71 /  10  20  40  30  30
Corsicana           74  89  72  88  72 /  10  20  30  30  30
Temple              73  89  72  88  71 /  10  30  40  30  30
Mineral Wells       68  90  69  84  67 /  10  30  40  40  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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