Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 260430 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLIER THIS EVENING STILL HAS WINDS VARIABLE
AT KACT AND OTHER NEARBY AIRPORTS....THUS WILL CALL THEM VRB03KT
OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION JUSTIFIES EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDDED
PARAMETERS TO ALIGN WITH TRENDS. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES
REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  30   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.