Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 160913
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
313 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A quiet day today, as North and Central TX remain under a detached
upper trough aloft, with an upper low detached well to the
southwest over Western Mexico. Dry NW flow aloft was keeping
skies nearly cloud-free. Patchy fog has been removed from the
morning forecast, as the low level airmass is drier than
previously expected with the surface ridge settling into the area
and dew point depressions of 3-5 degrees on average. Still cannot
rule out a little shallow graveyard fog, especially low lying
rural areas near creeks or small streams. Otherwise, temperatures
will moderate well into the 60s todays for highs, as weak low-
level WAA occurs under plentiful sunshine.

The surface ridge will shift SE over the northern Gulf of Mexico
and Lower MS Valley tonight, as the detached upper low over Mexico
gets kicked northeastward across the area later tonight and
Friday. South winds will return tonight and become breezy on
Friday. In addition, modified Gulf moisture will stream northward
and will result in more mild low temperatures in the 40s Friday
morning. Some stratus will return northward, mainly along and east
of I-35. The airmass should be pretty dry elsewhere. A few light
showers or sprinkles are expected across the eastern half of the
area, but only expect trace amounts to possibly a few hundredths
of an inch. WAA will be increasing with highs Friday in the upper
60s/lower 70s under partly to mostly sunny conditions. Look for an
increasing southerly nocturnal LLJ Friday night to bring stratus
northward across mainly areas I-35 and east. The departing upper
low will still be in the vicinity of the Ark-La-Tex during this
time and have lingered sprinkles and a few light showers across
the eastern counties through Saturday morning. Otherwise, gusty
S/SE winds will help bring more humidity northward. In addition,
shortwave ridging will result in breezy and warm conditions in
the 70s to lower 80s. With MOS guidance trending toward
climatology, I raised high temperatures several degrees Saturday
above MOS values. Outside of the gusty winds and sprinkles early
on in the east, Saturday should be a windy, dry, and warm day.

As our first benign shortwave trough moves northeast away from the
area late Saturday into Sunday, a second, more vigorous upper low
will be organizing over northwest Mexico. Stratus and brisk south
winds will hold lows up in the 50s/lower 60s Sunday morning. Height
falls begin arriving in the afternoon across areas W of I-35 and
especially S of I-20, while the shortwave ridge gradually moves
east of the area. It will remain breezy and warm, especially I-35
and points east where some breaks in the cloudiness are possible
Sunday afternoon.

Isentropic ascent will ramp up across our SW zones late in the
day and have maintained highest convective chances down that way.
Instability either aloft or surface-based appears less than
impressive Sunday, so will only only include isolated thunder in
the forecast. High resolution models are slowly resolving this
system with height falls and large-scale ascent (both DPVA and
isentropic) increasing Sunday night into Monday, as the system
opens up and draws a deep moisture fetch ahead of it across our
part of the state. PWAT values soar upwards to 1.5 inches in a
narrow corridor, which is well above normal values around here for
February. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread Sunday
night into Monday as deep moisture and lift coincide over TX.

Currently, this appears to be more of a hydrologic event than a
severe weather threats, similar to the Valentine`s Day event with
an inverted surface trough keeping the warm sector relegated
mostly south of our CWA. Southern counties will still need to be
monitored late Sunday night into Monday, but as of now, thinking
locally heavy rainfall and possibly some hail being the main
threats at this time.

The upper low will track east across South and Southeast TX Monday
night into Tuesday, so though it will be wet, do not think severe
weather will be a concern, though some isolated flooding is
certainly possible across Central TX and the eastern counties.
Rain chances and cloud cover will definitely start to taper off
from west to east later next Tuesday and Wednesday, as the upper
low moves east over the Gulf of Mexico. Slightly cooler
temperatures are expected the first half of the week with this
system in the vicinity, but it won`t be drawing in any colder air
soon. Highs will remain between 65 and 75 degrees Tuesday.

We should see 70s for highs by Wednesday, with some areas around
pushing 80 degrees once again Thursday. I did go above blended
MOS temperatures here per usual cool bias once again. Lows should
remain mostly in the 50s. Partial sunshine returns to the area
next Tuesday, with sunny and Spring-like conditions next
Wednesday through Friday, as a shortwave ridge sets up across the
Southern Plains.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through 06z Friday.
As a surface ridge over West Texas moves southeast into southeast
Texas, light west to northwest winds at TAF issuance time will
become southwest by daybreak Thursday and become southerly around
10 knots by 17z. As a cutoff low currently over the southern part
of the Mexican state of Sonora moves eastward Thursday and
Thursday night, we should see an increase in high clouds.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  48  72  56  78 /   0   0  10  10   5
Waco                66  46  71  54  81 /   0   0  10   5   5
Paris               64  43  68  51  69 /   0   0  10  10  20
Denton              66  45  71  54  76 /   0   0  10  10   5
McKinney            65  44  70  52  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
Dallas              67  49  71  56  77 /   0   0  10  10  10
Terrell             65  45  70  54  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
Corsicana           66  47  71  56  77 /   0   0  10  10  10
Temple              66  46  72  54  81 /   0   0  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       68  44  73  48  78 /   0   0   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05


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