Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 301154
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
654 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE VICINITY ARE LIKELY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. BY
MID MORNING WILL SHOW JUST VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE
PRETTY WORKED OVER FOR ROBUST OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STILL IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME NEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM AND
AFFECT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THAT. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT SO THREAT OF RAIN ENDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE STORMS WITH GENERALLY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AT 5-15KT.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
A STALLED 850MB FRONT STRETCHES WEST TO EAST BETWEEN THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND THE RED RIVER. A 30-35KT LLJ HAS HELPED TO INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AIDED BY THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
STEERING FLOW IS RESULTING IN TRAINING...THE HEAVY RAIN WITH WHICH
WILL RE-AGGRAVATE FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER...THE TRAINING WILL
EVENTUALLY BE DISRUPTED BY THE ADVANCING MCS IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING...IMPACTING AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LINE....BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE COLD POOL SUGGESTS THIS WILL WANE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.

OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...THE 850MB FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND...AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. AND WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOT
PASSING OUR LONGITUDE UNTIL THIS EVENING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT NORTH TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND ANY OF THE
CELLS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR EAST...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE
TONIGHT. AT LONG LAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD
IN...ALLOWING THE LONE STAR STATE A CHANCE TO DRY OUT. THE LOW IS
NOW PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MUCH OF THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN EAST
TEXAS. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A CLOUDY MAY...THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE WILL GET OFF
TO A VERY SUNNY START. THE WET GROUND WILL TEMPER THE WARMING
TREND...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S BY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN HINT THAT THE RIDGE COULD BREAK DOWN BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE ECMWF INTENSIFIES ITS GRIP ON TEXAS. THE
ECMWF MAY BE SWAYED TOO STRONGLY BY CLIMATOLOGY...BUT THE
SPAGHETTI SPLATTER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MEANS WE SHOULD ALSO
HAVE A SKEPTICAL EYE WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
JUNE IS AMONG THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY...SO
WE SHOULD EXPECT THIS RESPITE FROM THE RAIN WILL NOT BE PERMANENT.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  63  82  63  84 /  60  20   5   5   5
WACO, TX              83  63  82  61  85 /  80  40  20   0   5
PARIS, TX             80  60  78  60  80 /  60  30   5   0   5
DENTON, TX            79  60  80  59  83 /  60  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          80  60  80  58  82 /  70  20   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            82  64  82  64  85 /  70  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           82  63  81  61  84 /  70  20  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  64  81  62  84 /  80  40  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  65  81  61  84 /  70  40  20   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  60  81  59  84 /  60  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



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