Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 190835
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
335 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017
Patchy fog will develop again this morning with some pockets of
dense fog generally west of the Interstate 35 corridor.The dense
fog should not be as extensive as it was on Tuesday morning due to
slightly stronger wind speeds, therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory
will not be needed. Any fog that does develop should quickly
dissipate after sunrise.
The upper level trough responsible for the showers and storms the
past couple of days will remain across East Texas and Louisiana
today. Weak large scale lift associated with this feature coupled
with abundant low level moisture and surface heating will result
in isolated showers across the eastern zones this afternoon. The
upper trough will finally move east of the region tonight as a
subtle upper ridge builds in from the west. Ample low level
moisture and subsidence under the ridge will result in warm,
somewhat humid and rain-free weather tonight through Thursday with
lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s.
The upper ridge axis will be forced to the east Thursday night
through Friday when an upper trough approaches from the west. A
few showers and storms may develop across the northern zones as a
cold front nears the Red River Valley. The cold front should
remain north of CWA through Friday afternoon. However, storms o
developing near the cold front Thursday night have the potential
to move south into the northern zones. A similar potential for
storms will exist on Friday with the cold front remaining just
north of the region and a dryline approaching from the west. Since
most of the forcing (both large and mesoscale) will still remain
to the north and west Thursday night and Friday, and a cap will
likely be present, we will keep PoPs low.
The upper trough will translate across the Central Plains Friday
night and allow the cold front to move quickly across the region.
Lift along the cold front will be the catalyst for thunderstorms.
Models continue to indicate ample instability so there will be
some severe storm potential with hail and damaging winds being the
primary hazards. Storms will end quickly from north to south
through the day Saturday with the arrival of dry and subsident air
behind the cold front. It will also be breezy and considerably
cooler Saturday with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures
by Sunday morning will be rather cool for late April, ranging from
the middle 40s to the lower 50s.
A building upper level ridge of high pressure will result in
tranquil weather with a warming trend Sunday through early next
week. Precipitation chances should return to the region by the
middle of next week when another upper level trough approaches
from the west.
/ISSUED 1111 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017/
A weak upper level trough axis extends from Louisiana to the
Western Gulf of Mexico. Moisture and diurnal instability will lead
to scattered showers and a few storms in the vicinity of this
trough for the next couple of days. This should keep convective
weather east of all TAF locations through the end of this forecast
cycle. The main concern will be the return of stratus overnight.
Low level winds aren`t exactly howling, but at 20 to 25 KT should
still be able to transport developing stratus over Central Texas
northward overnight. Will introduce MVFR at KACT by 09Z and in
the Metroplex by 11Z. CIGs will begin to improve by midday with
VFR conditions expected by mid afternoon Wednesday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 68 83 66 83 / 10 5 10 10 10
Waco 81 67 82 66 82 / 10 5 10 10 10
Paris 80 64 81 64 80 / 10 5 10 10 20
Denton 81 66 82 65 82 / 5 0 10 10 20
McKinney 80 65 81 65 81 / 10 5 10 10 20
Dallas 82 68 84 67 83 / 10 5 10 10 10
Terrell 81 67 82 66 82 / 10 5 10 10 10
Corsicana 81 66 82 66 82 / 10 5 10 5 10
Temple 81 66 82 66 83 / 10 5 10 10 10
Mineral Wells 81 64 84 63 84 / 5 0 10 10 10