Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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020
FXUS64 KFWD 071027
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
427 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS RETURNED TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE
NEARLY CALM IN AREAS THAT ARE BOTH EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE
AREAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SATURATION WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WHILE STILL SHALLOW...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE VISIBILITY AT
MEXIA HAS DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE...THE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. A FEW SITES THAT WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PATCHY FOG WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE FOG IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE
DEPOSITION...AND NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE ANTICIPATED.

WITH WARMING SOUTH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S REGIONWIDE TODAY. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE NIGHTFALL...BRINGING
AN ABRUPT END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP.

MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
TOP 20 MPH...AND GUSTS WILL FREQUENTLY EXCEED 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S...A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15
TO 25 PERCENT. THE ABUNDANT AUTUMN GROWTH IS NOW DORMANT...AND
THIS VEGETATION WOULD BE THE FIRST TO INITIATE FIRE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME GREEN COLD SEASON GROWTH THAT WILL BE MORE RESISTANT
TO FIRE SPREAD...THE WINDS WILL MAKE ANY POTENTIAL WILDFIRES
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST BEYOND MONDAY...BUT WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY INVADES FROM THE
WEST. ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS MAY APPROACH 60F ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD PUT THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE 70S. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
VALENTINES DAY WEEKEND.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY EAST OF WACO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHER THAN THE
PATCHY MORNING FOG AND WIND SHIFT...NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  37  57  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  35  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             61  33  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  32  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  33  54  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            63  36  55  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           63  35  56  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  36  57  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            65  34  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  31  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25



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