Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 191729
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NORTHEAST TX/ MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE RETURN OF A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD HELP ERODE OR AT LEAST LIFT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. CIGS HAVE ALREADY LIFTED TO VFR OR
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME
SCATTERED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE
CLEARING LINE IS NOT FAR OFF TO THE WEST OF TAF LOCATIONS AND MOST
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SCATTER OUT CIGS BY 21Z OR SO THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH IMPROVEMENT SINCE THE
FRONT AND THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER PASSED THROUGH ON THURSDAY. FOR
THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WE WILL INDICATE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAT 10 KT AND VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/
THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT WILL
HANG AROUND AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY...COMPLEMENTS OF A STUBBORN LOW
CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS SHIELDED IT FROM THE JULY SUNSHINE. THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY...AS THEY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES GREATLY. THE CLOUD DECK
HAS ALREADY ERODED OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...AND THIS AREA WILL SEE
THE MOST SUNSHINE TODAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 90S.
MEANWHILE...CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES WITH SOME CLEARING FINALLY TAKING PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS TONIGHT AND MOST AREAS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
USUALLY WARMER URBAN AREAS STAYING NEAR 70.

BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY OVER NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
STRENGTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BY MIDWEEK WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE...MEANING WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY...BUT THE HEAT WILL NOT BE ANYTHING UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME
OF THE YEAR. LOW TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID
70S...WITH HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AS A WHOLE WEAKENS BY LATE WEEK...IT
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. THUS OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WARM A DEGREE OR TWO WITH TEMPS NEAR 100
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND FOR MANY SITES.

THE FORECAST WILL BE GENERALLY RAIN-FREE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY IS THE RESULT OF A FAIRLY STRONG
MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WHICH ROTATES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE ECMWF REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS FORECAST OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND IS
FORECAST TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE CANADIAN KEEPS THIS PIECE OF ENERGY TO OUR EAST...
BUT DOES SHOW A WEAK FRONT WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY
OVERDONE SINCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH INTO THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT A FRONT GETTING THIS FAR
SOUTH. THE GFS SHEARS OUT THIS ENERGY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND THEREFORE DOES NOT BRING IT THROUGH OUR REGION.
HOWEVER THE GFS DOES INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL PV VALUES OVER THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED JET MAX OVER THE AREA. THE GFS FORECAST SHOWS
NO QPF...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A WEAK CAP AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. SINCE THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE AVAILABLE TO ASSIST IN
UPWARD FORCING WEDNESDAY...HAVE ADDED 20 POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  71  94  76  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              87  69  94  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             83  67  91  70  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            86  66  92  71  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          85  66  92  70  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            86  71  93  76  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           85  70  94  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         86  70  94  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            88  69  94  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     90  69  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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