Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 171159 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
659 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Overnight convection continues to gradually push east of the
Metroplex TAF sites at this hour. With the backside of the 850 mb
moisture axis sitting right across the I-35 corridor, however, a
few showers will remain possible through about 13Z. Waco will have
to contend with convection for a few more hours before dry air
finally pushes through towards 14Z or so. VFR is then in store
today with clearing skies as large-scale subsidence slides in
overhead. A dryline will mix east towards I-35 this afternoon, but
winds do not look to veer appreciably behind this feature, and
we`ll prevail some occasionally gusty winds favoring a 200-degree
direction or so.

Stratus is then expected to re-develop as early as this evening at
Waco as moisture returns northward. In general, low-MVFR cigs are
favored as upstream dewpoints do not look to strongly favor a
build down to IFR. Low-level winds also look to remain elevated
just enough to preclude widespread fog development, although some
patchy visibility reductions may be possible. Cigs will then lift
and scatter towards the mid-morning hours on Thursday.

While presently outside the DFW extended TAF window, thunderstorms
are expected to blossom to the west of the region late Thursday
afternoon and into the evening, which will pose an issue for
western departures and arrivals through the Bowie cornerpost.

Carlaw

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/
An upper level low can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery
over far southeastern Colorado/far southwestern Kansas. This
system is moving northeast while the next upper level low over
eastern Oregon is digging southeastward. The first upper level low
will continue to move northeast across Kansas and into Iowa by
tonight.

The on-going area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
move east and the rain should end northwest of a Sherman to
Goldthwaite line around sunrise. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will continue into the morning southeast of this line before
ending around midday, through a low chance may continue into the
afternoon across the extreme southeastern counties. Subsidence in
the wake of the upper level low should result in rather quiet
weather this afternoon and tonight.

The next upper level low that is currently over Oregon will move
through the Intermountain West Thursday before moving eastward
across Colorado Thursday night and then northeast into the
Northern Plains Friday. There will be a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms may develop across North and Central Texas anytime
during the day Thursday but some strong to severe thunderstorms
look to be more likely to develop across the western part of the
forecast area late afternoon and this activity would move east
through the evening hours. There will be a threat of large hail
and damaging winds with these storms.

As the upper level low continues to lift northeast across the
Northern Plains, a trough will move eastward across the Central
and Southern Plains Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front
is expected to move southeast into the northern zones Saturday and
slowly move southeast through the rest of the forecast area
before daybreak Sunday. This will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. Some strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible. There will also be the potential for some heavy
rainfall. The rain should end from northwest to southeast Sunday.

Rain chances will return late Monday and continue through Tuesday
as another shortwave approaches.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  74  90  72  86 /  20  10  30  40  40
Waco                90  72  89  72  88 /  40  10  30  40  30
Paris               84  71  86  70  84 /  50  10  20  30  30
Denton              89  70  90  70  84 /  20  10  30  40  40
McKinney            87  71  88  70  84 /  30  10  20  40  40
Dallas              90  75  91  72  86 /  20  10  30  40  40
Terrell             86  73  88  71  86 /  40  10  20  40  30
Corsicana           87  74  89  72  88 /  40  10  20  30  30
Temple              87  73  89  72  88 /  50  10  30  40  30
Mineral Wells       90  68  90  69  84 /   5  10  30  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/58



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