Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 272314 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTHWEST
OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL UNDERGO MODERATE CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE NET EFFECT TO NORTH TEXAS`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINOR. IN GENERAL...WARM AND PREDOMINATELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AS WE EXIT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

IN THE NEAR TERM...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM/AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OK ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PROBABLY
WON`T HAVE ENOUGH UMPHH TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE RED RIVER...BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT...IN KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP...THEN DISSIPATE OVER
OK LATER SAT...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS N TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OTHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SE LA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD WOBBLE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS ERIKA. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...LIMITING OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT SOME SPARSE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE-THURS IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...AM SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS LOW WILL MANAGE TO WORK ANY FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY...DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A TAD DRIER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO...KEEPING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FROM BECOMING TOO OUTRAGEOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BRADSHAW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  98  75  97  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  99  73  98  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  93  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  99  72  96  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  97  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  98  76  97  76 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  96  72  94  72 /   0   0  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  98  72  97  70 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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