Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 250222
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
922 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINCE THE
FRONT HAS LOST ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH THIS EVENING...MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...A STORM
OR TWO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WE WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND REMOVE ALL OTHER POPS
AT THIS TIME.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 709 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MORNING STRATUS WEDNESDAY.

THE WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN NORTH TEXAS TODAY
WILL SOON CLOSE AS THE SUN SETS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
ALONG COLLIDING BOUNDARIES NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX. 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED MINIMAL CAP LEFT AT THE HEAT OF
THE DAY...AND LOCALLY COMPUTED CIN VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARIES ALSO SUGGEST THERE IS LITTLE REMAINING INHIBITION.
HOWEVER...THE CU FIELD APPEARS UNINCLINED...DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. THE CAP
WILL QUICKLY REINTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS A LLJ FEEDS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

THIS LLJ WILL ALSO RESULT IN A REPEAT OF MVFR STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS TIME...THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE FLUX WILL RESULT IN TOP-DOWN SATURATION THAT WILL RESULT
IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE THIN
LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND ERODE BY MID-MORNING...
ALLOWING THE GUSTY WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE ONCE AGAIN.

NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTEND WITH A LINGERING CAP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NO BOUNDARIES TO AID IN REALIZING THE INSTABILITY
IN PLACE. WITH A DRYLINE WEST OF ABILENE AND WICHITA FALLS AT THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...FEEL THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS UNTIL AFTER NIGHTFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS THIS AFTERNOON REVEAL A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER
MISSOURI SOUTHWEST TO THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR WICHITA
FALLS...WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHERE STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL OCCUR. FARTHER
SOUTH..CONDITIONS AT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
I-20 THIS EVENING WHERE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG. THERE
ARE ALREADY SOME CUMULUS FORMING NEAR THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AT
THIS HOUR.

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST AREAS. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE CAP WILL BECOME WEAKEST DURING THE 4-7 PM TIME
FRAME...LIKELY DROPPING BELOW 10 J/KG DURING THAT WINDOW. A CAP
THIS WEAK CAN BE BROKEN WITH ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES NEARBY. AT ANY RATE...ANY
ISOLATED STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE WE WILL KEEP SOME 20 POPS IN
PLACE. LESS THAN 20 POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20.

A STRONGER AND LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT
TRAVERSES THE PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
SURGING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WHERE IT WILL OVERTAKE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT /WHICH WILL HAVE BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OKLAHOMA ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER LATE AFTERNOON. OUR MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING OR PEAK SURFACE HEATING HOURS...AND THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THAT TIME.

ISOLATED DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
ROTATING IN THIS REGION GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT...AND ANY OF THESE CELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT DECREASES LATE IN THE EVENING...AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE MOIST BUT LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE COLD FRONT RACES SOUTH.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SURFACE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE FORECAST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. IF HIGHER
SPEEDS BECOME EVIDENT...WE MAY CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR
TOMORROW OR TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

THE FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY AND REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEFORE NOON THE
SAME DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING AN UPPER
RIDGE AND PLEASANT WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  82  51  61  44 /  10  10  50  10   0
WACO, TX              61  82  53  63  41 /   5   5  50  10   0
PARIS, TX             59  80  52  59  42 /  20  10  60  20   0
DENTON, TX            58  82  49  61  39 /  10  20  60  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          59  80  50  60  39 /  10  10  50  10   0
DALLAS, TX            62  82  51  61  47 /  10  10  50  10   0
TERRELL, TX           61  81  52  61  41 /  10   5  60  20   0
CORSICANA, TX         61  81  54  62  44 /   5   5  50  20   0
TEMPLE, TX            60  81  54  64  41 /   5   5  40  20   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  86  48  62  41 /   5  20  50  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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