Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200542 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...TIMING ARRIVAL OF CEILINGS AND VSBY REDUCTIONS.

DESPITE DISORGANIZED WINDS AT THE GROUND...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
20-30KTS ARE WITHIN 1500FT OF THE SURFACE. THOUGH MORE MODEST
TONIGHT...THIS LLJ WILL USHER IN THE LONG-AWAITED RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP A STRATUS INTRUSION
THURSDAY MORNING CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REACH WACO AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS INVADING THE
METROPLEX DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL STEADILY
FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING VISIBILITY. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THE CAP SHOULD PREVENT THUNDER.

25

25

&&

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE WINDS
HAVE GONE NEARLY CALM THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING IN EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
FORECAST LOWS. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS
EVENING AND STALL NEAR OR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 380 OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
EFFECTS FOR THE NORTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...PLEASANTLY WARM WITH INCREASING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THEY WILL BE MORE LIKELY AREAWIDE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE IT/S BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEVERAL FACTORS WILL COME INTO PLAY
DURING THE PERIOD TO AID IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES FRIDAY
EVENING AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE STRONG LIFT AND SPREAD
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION. CAPE WILL BE
MINIMAL AT UP TO 500 J/KG...BUT STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT AND ADEQUATE
SHEAR WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN SOME STORMS.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY WITH A LESSER THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE...AND THEN ISOLATED
TORNADOES ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHERE
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNSET SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 PLUS INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ROM THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A SOIL MOISTURE
DEFICIT AND FLASH GUIDANCE OF AROUND 3 INCHES PER 3 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE STORMS AND RAIN WILL END IN THE
WEST BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE LINGERED SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST
SECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...HAVE RETAINED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SHORT WAVE AND A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. SINCE THIS
AIR MASS WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
AREAS NORTH OF I-20 BEFORE SUNSET AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...THEN IN THE 30S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  43  68  58  69  59 /   0  10  30  40  70
WACO, TX              44  69  57  70  60 /   0  20  40  50  50
PARIS, TX             36  62  52  64  52 /   5  10  50  40  60
DENTON, TX            35  68  54  67  56 /   0  10  30  30  70
MCKINNEY, TX          33  66  52  67  56 /   0  10  30  40  60
DALLAS, TX            43  68  57  69  58 /   0  10  30  40  60
TERRELL, TX           38  67  55  68  57 /   0  10  50  50  50
CORSICANA, TX         42  69  57  70  59 /   0  20  50  50  40
TEMPLE, TX            45  70  57  72  60 /   0  20  50  50  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  70  51  67  55 /   0   5  20  20  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/92




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