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000
FXUS64 KFWD 151600 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON BECAME THE NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT...NOW NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA. THE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...SUNSHINE WILL WARM AREAS FROM
ABILENE TO WICHITA FALLS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL MUCAPE
VALUES WILL EASILY EXCEED 2000 J/KG IN THESE AREAS. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SJT CWA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE OUN CWA (WITHIN TEXAS). THE STORMS WOULD DEVELOP
IN AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND CONSIDERABLE
VEERING OF THE WINDS. THE CYCLONIC SHEAR WILL ENHANCE BOTH UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND MAINTENANCE...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...
AND WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR BRIEF TORNADOES WITHOUT ANY
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH...THE
STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE ANY OF THESE STORMS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE FWD CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THESE STORMS WOULD
CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE INFLOW WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...POSING A CONSIDERABLE DOWNBURST THREAT.

ELSEWHERE...DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE CWA TODAY. EVEN WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS...THE MINIMAL
MORNING PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO STABILIZE THE LOW-LEVELS.
AS A RESULT...ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDS FROM THE METROPLEX INTO THE WACO AREA...AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD END SHORTLY. EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX. THESE STORMS
COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 3Z AND 7Z. IF THE STORMS HOLD
TOGETHER...THEY WOULD REACH WACO AFTER 5Z. MVFR CIGS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

HAMPSHIRE


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO
OKLAHOMA. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING
AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE STORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. THE BEST SEVERE STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY WHERE
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE DRY LINE SHOULD OVERCOME THE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
SEE PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH BY THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. STORM CHANCES
SHOULD END IN ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHEAST ZONES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEST
COAST TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY WHILE THE APPROACHING WESTERN U.S. SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES. THE DRY LINE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL DUE TO MORE THAN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. IF
THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL LEAVE POPS LOW
FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOME MID AND UPPER 90S ARE
EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DRY LINE.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  67  81  71  92 /  40  60  30  10  10
WACO, TX              80  68  84  72  89 /  30  40  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             77  63  77  67  81 /  50  60  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            79  70  81  69  90 /  40  60  30  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          79  66  80  69  87 /  40  60  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            80  68  80  71  89 /  40  60  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           79  65  80  70  87 /  40  60  30  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         78  65  80  70  88 /  30  40  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            80  68  83  71  89 /  30  30  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  68  85  68  92 /  40  60  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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