Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261813 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
113 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LOW THUNDER POTENTIAL AT WACO.

MOISTURE RECOVERY CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...EVIDENCED BY A
MORE DEVELOPED CU FIELD TODAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS
HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF THE PECOS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF WACO.

25

&&

.UPDATE...

WENT AHEAD AND REORIENTED POPS WITH THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUSED
ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...HOWEVER MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OUR BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WOULD BE MORE
FOCUSED OVER OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HAVE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM JACKSBORO TO GATESVILLE TO CAMERON WITH THIS UPDATE.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE TO THE
EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES
FROM DEL RIO TO CORPUS CHRISTI. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWED AN
INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OF ALMOST
ONE HALF INCH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADARS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR ABILENE
AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT LIFT SHIFTING
SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT RESULTED IN
THE INCLUSION OF POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE LOSS OF THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK AGAINST THE POSITIVE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT OCCURRING OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND KEEP THE REST OF THE CWA DRY TODAY.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/
A BROAD WEAK 500MB LOW SITS NEAR HOBBS NM THIS MORNING...AND WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD KICK UP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO CENTERVILLE. LOW
DRIFTS SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO LIE OVER LA/AR BORDER BY SUNDAY.
WITH VERY WEAK DYNAMICS...WEAK LIFT WILL HAVE TO RELY ON A THERMAL
COMPONENT AND THUS HAVE LIMITED CONVECTION TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO TO PALESTINE. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SATURDAY AS WELL.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE WARM...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH SOME 90S MIXED IN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
70S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED FOR EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE
GFS KEEPS THE STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT
THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN BRINGS THE UPPER SUPPORT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS WOULD RAISE OUR PRECIP CHANCES AND GIVE HOPE FOR A DECENT
AMOUNT OF QPF AS WELL...BUT IT IS A NEW SOLUTION AND IT WILL HAVE
TO SHOW RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE WE CAN BEGIN TO BELIEVE WE
REALLY WILL GET A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN.  84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  68  88  68  89 /  10   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              87  67  87  66  89 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             84  64  85  64  86 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            87  64  87  64  88 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          86  63  87  64  88 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            87  68  88  69  89 /  10   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           87  64  87  66  89 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         88  66  88  66  90 /  10  10  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            86  68  86  65  89 /  20  10  20   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  64  86  63  88 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/69





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