Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 181810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
110 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions prevail areawide this afternoon with south-
southwest flow around 10 kt. A weak frontal boundary is located to
the northwest of the major airports at this hour from near
Breckenridge to Bowie but is unlikely to move much farther south
through this evening. Southerly winds should prevail through the
overnight hours. There will still be enough moisture around for at
least some patchy MVFR cigs during the early morning hours so will
continue with a few hours of TEMPO BKN015 from 13-15Z on
Wednesday. Otherwise...the main weather concern will be late in
the period tomorrow as a stronger cold front approaches the area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop along
the front during the evening hours...most likely in the 00-06Z
timeframe. For now...have left TS out of the current TAF but this
will need to be added in the 00Z issuance. North winds will
prevail behind the front Wednesday night and Thursday.



Quick update late this morning mainly to bump high temperatures
up a few degrees and re-trend the near term weather elements. A
cool front is currently situated from just west of Bowie to
Breckenridge to Abilene based on recent observations, with a north
wind shift, cooler temperatures, and much drier air behind it.
Latest indications are that this feature will only make limited
additional eastward progress into our CWA and will not make it
through the DFW Metroplex today. Stout southwesterly flow ahead of
the front, combined with substantial warming noted in the 900-950
mb layer on this morning`s sounding mean highs today should jump
into the lower to middle 90s across the southeastern 2/3rds of our



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/
The 3 AM surface analysis indicated that a front extended
southeast of a line from Wichita, Kansas southeast into the South
Plains of West Texas. This front will move southeast into the
northwestern parts of North Texas today and is expected stall just
east of a Bowie to Cisco line by sunset. Despite some convergence
along this boundary, the cap is expected to remain strong enough
to not allow thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening.
After some morning low clouds across the central and eastern parts
of the forecast area through mid to late morning, expect skies to
become mostly sunny. It will be another day of well above normal
temperatures. Highs will be in upper 80s to mid 80s across the
forecast area. The only exception may be in the northwestern
zones, where a few mid 80s will be possible behind the front. DFW
will likely come within a degree or two of its record high for
October 18th (93 degrees set in 1921, 2004 and 2005). Waco`s
record high for October 18th is a less attainable 96 degrees which
was set in 1947.

The aforementioned front will lift back to the north tonight
as lee side troughing develops ahead of the next shortwave.
Outside of some late night low clouds, skies will be clear to
partly cloudy tonight and lows will be in the mid 60s to the
lower 70s.

As a shortwave moves out of Rockies Wednesday, a cold front will
move south down the Plains. This front will enter the northwestern
part of North Texas before sunset Wednesday and sweep through
the rest of the forecast area before daybreak Thursday. We will
have a chance of showers and thunderstorms mid to late Wednesday
afternoon across the northwestern zones, and area wide Wednesday
night. No severe weather is expected at this time, though we
cannot rule out a few strong storms north of I-20. Rain chances
will end across most of the forecast area Thursday morning as the
shortwave moves off to the east. A few showers/thunderstorms may
linger into the afternoon across the southeastern zones.
Rainfall totals are expected to range from less than 1/4 inch
across the south to 1/2 to 3/4 inch across the north.

Winds will shift to north behind the front and will be gusty on
Thursday. Although skies are expected to clear by afternoon across
most of the forecast area, the cold advection behind the front is
expected to allow highs to only reach the 70s.

Dry weather is expected Thursday night through the weekend. With
diminishing winds and clear skies, lows will range from the mid
40s to lower 50s. It will be mostly sunny and cool Friday with
highs in the 70s. Light southerly winds will return Friday night
as the surface high that built in behind the front moves off to
the east. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

An upper level ridge will build in from the west this weekend.
This along with the return of southerly low level flow will
result in a warming trend that will continue into early next week.
Lows will be in the 50s area wide Saturday night...upper 50s to
lower 60s Sunday night...and low to mid 60s Monday night.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the period.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  89  62  74  53 /   5  10  60  30   0
Waco                71  90  64  77  49 /   5   5  50  30   5
Paris               70  87  61  75  48 /   5  10  60  30   5
Denton              70  88  59  73  48 /   5  10  60  20   0
McKinney            70  87  59  73  49 /   5  10  60  30   0
Dallas              72  88  64  74  52 /   5   5  60  30   0
Terrell             70  88  62  75  51 /   5  10  50  30   5
Corsicana           70  89  66  76  54 /   5  10  50  30   5
Temple              70  90  65  77  51 /   5   5  40  30   5
Mineral Wells       67  89  59  73  46 /   5  10  60  20   0



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