Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 100910
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
310 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

The warming trend continues today largely due an an increase in
westerly winds. Downslope flow and weak warm advection will cause
temperatures to be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday for most
locations. These warm and dry conditions along with 10-15 mph
winds will result in an elevated fire danger across portions of
North Texas this afternoon.

Across the western US, a split flow regime has taken shape and
the southern stream shortwave is approaching Baja California this
morning. As this feature continues its eastward trek, associated
high cirrus will begin to spread into the region later this
evening and overnight. A canopy of high clouds should help keep
tonight`s lows on the warmer side; most of the area should remain
above freezing.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Monday through Saturday/

Despite the passage of a few cold fronts in the extended, near to
above normal temperatures are still anticipated. Rain chances at
this time appear as if they will remain south and east of North
and Central TX for next weekend.

For Monday and Tuesday---Mid and upper level clouds are expected
to stream in from the Pacific southwest through the day on Monday
as an upper low continues to churn across Baja California. At the
surface, a frontal boundary will approach from the north, inducing
dry and warm southwest winds across the area. The adiabatic
compression should allow temperatures to soar into the 70s, but at
this time, I think record high temperatures at D/FW and Waco are
more than likely safe. We will keep an eye on this, however.
Overnight low temperatures will fall into the 30s and 40s across
the area, but a slight north breeze may keep the bottom from
completely falling out.

The cold front should have sliced through a majority of the
forecast area by daybreak Tuesday, ushering in northerly winds and
cooler conditions. There may be a fire weather risk, mainly
across northeastern zones where breezy conditions are expected,
but at this time, lower temperatures and possibly some scattered
post-FROPA stratocumulus may ultimately hamper any fire starts.
High temperatures should be 10 to 12 degrees lower than those on
Monday as CAA and a mid/upper level cloud canopy both hinder
daytime heating. With dry air at the surface, clearing skies and
light winds, overnight low temps Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning are expected to take a tumble down into the 20s and 30s.
This will be especially true for rural and sheltered parts of
North and Central TX.

For Wednesday and Thursday---With continued troughing to the east
and the approach of another cold front from the north, west winds
will overspread the area. High temperatures will climb to above
normal values and readings will be in the upper 60s and into the
low 70s beneath mostly sunny skies. Wednesday night into Thursday
should be a tad warmer, despite the passage of a front through the
area. The front will likely disrupt what would otherwise be an
ideal radiational cooling night and overnight lows should fall
into the 30s and 40s areawide. Thursday will be cooler than the
previous day with daytime high temperatures closer to seasonal
norms.

For Friday and Saturday---Friday will be another day in which
temperatures moderate back into the mid to upper 60s for most of
the area. The surface pressure gradient will be tighter and should
result in stronger southerly winds. If winds turn more to the
southwest, it`s probable that temperatures may climb back into the
70s. Overnight Friday into Saturday should be milder as shallow
moisture return commences and overnight breezes keep the boundary
layer a bit more overturned. There may be some stratus that tries
to lift northward out of the Hill Country, but most models, minus
the GFS, indicate that the low levels will remain too parched for
cloud cover. Still, overnight low temps will likely only fall
into the mid to upper 40s areawide.

Saturday is expected to be another mild day by December standards
with high temperatures 10 degrees above normal. A cold front will
approach the area from the north through the day and will likely
slide through much of the area by sunrise Sunday. Taking a look at
the model consensus---the 00 UTC deterministic GFS and its
ensembles are currently the outliers compared to the 00 UTC
deterministic and ensemble ECMWF/Canadian. The GFS appears to be a
little slower with the track of a mid-level shortwave through the
Midwest which would mean a slower FROPA. The slower FROPA would
allow for a richer degree of moisture to returnee northward
necessary for precipitation. As noted above, this solution falls
outside of the consensus envelope. In addition, it appears that
the GFS is overly aggressive with its return of rich moisture
given the multiple frontal intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico from
earlier in the week. The deterministic ECMWF has remained
consistent with a dry forecast and only a few of its ensemble
members support any sort of rain/precipitation. More
significantly, the deterministic Canadian now falls in line with
the ECMWF on poorer moisture quality, farther east upper trough
and quicker FROPA. As a result, I`ve hedged towards a dry forecast
in the extended.

24-Bain

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1119 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017/
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light winds
have come back around to the west where they will remain through
at least the next 24 hours (oscillating between WNW and WSW).
Sunday afternoon, winds will increase to 10-15 kts, but should
still be light enough to avoid crosswind concerns. Otherwise,
some high cirrus should begin spreading in from the west by
Sunday evening.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  41  74  40  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                70  38  74  38  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               66  38  71  36  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              71  34  73  35  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            68  35  72  36  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              71  42  74  40  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  38  74  37  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           68  40  72  39  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              70  37  74  39  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  37  74  35  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/26



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