Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 201133
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES
UP ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE O THE TWO MODELS LAVES US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED
AND TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER
UNTIL NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75







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