Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 310400
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1100 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AND WE WILL GO
AHEAD AND REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS. THE RISK FOR CONVECTION AT TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS NOT ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. TR.92


&&

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
A BROAD LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY
WITH A POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE ANCHORED WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. A
MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH...TWO OF WHICH OVER SOUTHWEST TX AND EASTERN OK
THAT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON NORTH TX SENSIBLE WEATHER. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SHERMAN...TO D/FW...TO NEAR COMANCHE WITH
HIGHER SURFACE DEW PTS YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGED
FROM THE MID- UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE A MID-HIGH CLOUD
CANOPY HAS LINGERED MOST OF THE DAY...TO THE LOWER-MID 90S NORTH
OF I-20 WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE ABUNDANT.

CHALLENGES ABOUND ONCE AGAIN TODAY REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
DUE TO THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF LIFTING MECHANISMS NOTED ABOVE.
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST TX
AND ERN OKLAHOMA SHORTWAVE WITH BOTH PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTH. IN
ADDITION...A DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICAL REGION ALOFT WAS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN THESE TWO SHORTWAVES NORTH OF I-20.
I AM EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
BETWEEN I-30 AND THE RED RIVER TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN STRONG AND WHERE A THETA-E AXIS HAS SET UP.
FURTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS. ANY POCKET OF INSOLATION THAT
DOES OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
COUNTIES COULD REACH STRONG LIMITS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-20 FOR THE EVENING AS BETTER FORCING
WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OF I-20.
AFTER SUNSET...STRONGER ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.

THE AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH MUCH THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE SHORTWAVE
FURTHER NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF PARIS AND PUT THAT PART OF
THE CWA WITHIN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. I HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS IN MIND. THE
ARKLATEX SHORTWAVE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND WILL ADVERTISE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE DAILY SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY AIDE IN A FOCUS FOR LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS MID LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
ORGANIZES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...A POTENTIAL
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS DRY AND SEASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  76  93  75 /  10   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              73  95  73  93  73 /  20   0   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  94  70  92  71 /  20   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  95  73  93  73 /  10   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  95  73  92  73 /  20   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  93  76 /  20   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           71  94  72  92  72 /  20   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  95  74  92  74 /  20   5   5  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            71  97  72  92  71 /  30   5   5  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  96  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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