Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 291712
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1212 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH S/SW WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY BACKING TO THE
SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL BE
NEAR 7-10KT. OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS AND
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS.

CONCERNING CONVECTION...HAVE KEPT METROPLEX TAFS DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR WACO THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE BETTER THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED
A VCTS FROM 20-1Z.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
HAVE DRIFTED ACROSS THE RED RIVER BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IN AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT. WILL RAISE POPS A BIT MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTH AS THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED FOR A FEW DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME MID WEEK...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION REMAINING
UNCHANGED AS IT REMAINS IN PLACE. LATE THIS WEEK...DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL REMAIN AS IS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND PER THE GFS OR IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME NEXT WEEKEND PER THE ECMWF.

THE WEAK...DIFFUSED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE NORTH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S SOUTH OF I-20. TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY WARM WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AND HAVE ADDED POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE...
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AROUND
THE DIFFUSE FRONT AND POOLED SURFACE MOISTURE DRIFTS NORTH DURING
THE DAY.

WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY REMAINING AVAILABLE...LOW CHANCE CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SMALL POCKETS OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES INTO
PLAY FOR THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20/I-30 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
SPREAD THE LOW CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND AREA WIDE FOR JULY
4TH AND SUNDAY.

AREA TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL NEAR NORMAL WHICH IS 73F & 94F
FOR BOTH DFW AND WACO. ONLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND COOL OUTFLOW
WILL HAVE ANY AFFECT ON THE EXPECTED MIN/MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK.      75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  75  95 /  10  10  10   5   5
WACO, TX              92  74  94  74  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             92  73  92  73  93 /  10  10  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            94  74  94  74  95 /  10  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  93  74  95 /  10  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  77  96 /  10  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  93  74  94 /  10  10  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         92  73  92  74  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  72  91  72  93 /  30  20  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  71  94  70  96 /  10  10  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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