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000
FXUS64 KFWD 120024 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
724 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE RED RIVER. DO NOT
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE MUCH PAST SUNSET.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE
CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA MOVING SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS...WELL BEFORE THREATENING TAF SITES. A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO WILL KEEP
PREVAILING WINDS AT 020 NEAR 10KT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT. TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/
NORTH WINDS USHERED IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT AFTER SUNSET AND WE SHOULD DROP
TO THE MID AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW AREAS
LEFT WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR ANY ONE
SPOT.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE 50S AND 80S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES BACK LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL STICK AROUND FOR THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AFFECTING NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH SOLUTIONS
ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING EXTREMELY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY A BIT...BUT AM NOT GOING WITH ANYTHING TOO HIGH FOR NOW.

WITHOUT GOING INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR DAY 6 AND 7...THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKING OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. DRY LINE
WILL BE ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES.

ON A HISTORICAL NOTE...TODAY IS THE 60TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE MAY 11
1953 WACO TORNADO. /IT IS ALSO THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE 1970 LUBBOCK
TORNADO./ 60 YEARS AGO...114 PEOPLE LOST THEIR LIVES FROM THE WACO
TORNADO AND AN ADDITIONAL 567 WERE INJURED.

FOX



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  79  55  86  62 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              54  80  51  84  60 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             50  75  50  82  57 /  20   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            51  80  53  87  59 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          51  78  52  84  58 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            55  80  56  85  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           53  77  52  84  57 /  10   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         55  79  53  82  57 /  10   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            54  80  53  83  58 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  82  53  86  56 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/82