Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 210401 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1101 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Not much change from the 00Z TAF package with some patchy fog
developing overnight and visibility restrictions generally between
3 and 5 miles. MVFR ceilings currently over South Texas will move
north overnight and should reach Waco around sunrise and the
Metroplex sites shortly after that. These low clouds will lift
above 3000 ft around midday but will not scatter out until
Saturday evening.

A southeast wind will prevail at speeds between 4 and 10 knots
through Saturday evening.

Although a few showers and storms may develop Saturday
afternoon across the Concho Valley and southwestern sections of
the forecast area...they should have no impact on any of the
terminals through the evening.



The morning low clouds gradually eroded as a weak surface high
quietly slid across the region today. Winds will return to the
south and southeast tonight and Saturday but speeds will remain
low. Generally clear skies will prevail for the evening hours and
this should help low temps fall into the low to mid 60s. As is
typical in mid to late May, the previous cold front has not
scoured out low level moisture and there is a reservoir of rich
Gulf moisture just offshore and across Deep South Texas. This
moisture will begin to return to the region Saturday with the
southwestern zones likely experiencing the best moisture advection.
More clouds and even a few showers or an isolated storm are
possible across the southwestern zones on Saturday afternoon.
Otherwise highs will continue to moderate into the 80s area wide.

The upper level pattern from Sunday into next weekend will be
fairly static and feature broad persistent troughing across the
western US. This will maintain a moist southerly low level flow
over North and Central Texas through the week. This will ensure
seasonably warm temperatures and high dewpoints as well as
nocturnal episodes of low stratus. Highs all next week will be in
the 80s with a few 90s occurring in western zones by mid week.
Lows will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s each night. The dry
line will set up across the western parts of the state and become
the focus for daily episodes of severe convection. While the dry
line remains west of the CWA every day next week the steering
flow will be predominantly from west to east at a fair clip. This
means the dry line convection or its remnant convectively induced
vorticity will track into the CWA and ensure at least a low
chance of rain or storms virtually every day/night. Due to
sufficient wind shear and ample instability, severe thunderstorms
will essentially be possible through the entire week.

While at least a low chance of rain continues all week, there are
a couple of periods that appear most favorable for convection
across North and Central Texas. The first period occurs from
Sunday evening into Monday and the second is likely from Thursday
into Friday. For Sunday and Monday the divergent upper level left
exit region of the subtropical jet stream will be situated over
the region and will help aid in dynamic forcing for ascent. The
airmass on Sunday and Monday will also be weakly capped or perhaps
even completely uncapped with moderate instability. This
environment will be favorable for storms that fire along the dry
line Sunday afternoon to track eastward without dissipating and
impact the region during the evening and overnight hours. The
greatest threat for severe weather Sunday night will be generally
across the western zones as this activity may arrive into the
eastern zones during the coolest part of day. Model guidance is
showing continued convective development over the region during
the day which is likely due to remnant forcing from convectively
generated vorticity or outflows while the airmass continues to
have little or no CINH.

On Tuesday and Wednesday the mid level westerly flow begins to
increase a bit, which will also bring in some warmer air above
the surface and strengthen the cap. In addition, weak height rises
may be indicative of subsidence aloft. The dry line does mix
farther eastward on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the increasing cap
and slightly more unfavorable environment for convection over our
region should keep any convective activity isolated or confined to
western regions. We have kept PoPs mostly in the 20 percent range
Tuesday and Wednesday. Still any storms that do develop during the
heat of the afternoon or in the evening hours will have a
potential for severe weather due to the surface airmass becoming
warmer and even more unstable.

By Thursday the model consensus in the synoptic pattern
advertises a stronger shortwave trough moving through the
southwestern US and Southern Plains. This forcing will shove the
dry line even farther to the east, perhaps reaching the western
CWA boundary Thursday or Friday afternoons. In addition, this
energy would provide more forcing for convective development along
the dry line. Shear profiles by this time also become stronger and
more organized for supercell modes. PoPs will increased to 30-40
percent by the end of the week as a result of this setup.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  85  70  85  71 /   0   5  10  20  30
Waco                63  85  68  85  70 /   0  10  10  20  20
Paris               60  82  62  84  66 /   0   5  10  10  30
Denton              60  84  67  84  69 /   0   5  10  20  40
McKinney            59  84  67  84  69 /   0   5  10  20  30
Dallas              64  86  70  86  71 /   0   5  10  20  30
Terrell             62  86  66  85  69 /   0   5  10  20  20
Corsicana           64  86  69  86  69 /   0   5  10  20  20
Temple              64  84  69  85  70 /   0  20  10  20  20
Mineral Wells       61  84  67  85  69 /   0  10  10  20  40


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