Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 230009
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
DEEP...SATURATED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TAF SITES. AS UPPER LOW NEAR EL PASO TRANSITS EASTWARD...BANDS
OF -RA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE METROPLEX/WACO TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY
PRIOR TO 07Z. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THUS...DON`T BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS VERY HEAVY. VISIBILITIES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4 MILES.

WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NOTED OVER SOUTHERN OK/EXTREME NCENTRAL
TX AT 23Z...MOST CEILINGS SHOULD LIKEWISE REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 12Z.
SOME CEILINGS IN THE 007-010 RANGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH
07Z...MAINLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THAT FORM.

SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z FRIDAY AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EAST TEXAS. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO METROPLEX TAF SITES AFTER 11Z....AND EXPECT SKY
CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR BY 14Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON
A BIT LONGER AT WACO...BUT ALL SITES SHOULD SEE SCT/BKN100
CONDITIONS BY 18Z. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW REGIME SHOULD
TRANSITION TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST 12-15KTS BY 12-15Z FRIDAY.

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/
AN UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS
TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE ANOTHER ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THE BIG CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS IF...WHEN AND WHERE WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE ONE FACTOR THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE THAT THE
LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL WITH APPROACH OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE SAME LAYER THAT IS CRITICAL FOR
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF SNOW CRYSTALS WILL ALSO BE DRYING AT THE SAME
TIME AND THIS WILL BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE TO EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCTION. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT
REACHES THE GROUND WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT WARM
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MANY OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO MELT BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. WE STILL BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND
SPREADING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE
SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN NEARLY ALL ZONES...WE
DO NOT ANTICIPATE IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW THAT FALLS. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF WINDOW TOWARDS DAWN WHERE A FEW OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST
COUNTIES SEE ALL LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.
THEREFORE...A DUSTING OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. IF THIS OCCURS IT WOULD BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO STEPHENVILLE LINE.
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ENDS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL PRECIPITATION EXITING TO THE EAST
BEFORE SUNSET.

DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST CUTS OFF...TIGHTENS UP AND MOVES WEST/NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW GETS INGESTED
INTO A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS
ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH IS JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIFFER GREATLY ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND ON HOW SIGNIFICANT
THIS NEXT RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  38  50  33  58  36 /  60  20   5   0   0
WACO, TX              37  48  29  60  36 /  60  30   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  49  30  56  35 /  50  40   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            35  50  29  56  31 /  60  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          37  51  30  56  34 /  60  20   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            38  51  35  58  36 /  60  20   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           38  51  32  57  34 /  60  30   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         39  50  33  57  36 /  60  30  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            38  47  31  58  36 /  60  30   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  49  30  57  33 /  60  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66/05





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.