Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 201754
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1254 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.AVIATION...
18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---MVFR cessation. Low potential for convection this
afternoon and tonight.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---MVFR stratus will slowly dissipate
from west to east across the DFW Metroplex as low level moisture
is replaced with drier air now slipping to the south of the Red
River. We are approaching the time of day in which additional
scouring of the low level cloud deck is aided by heating and the
lingering MVFR should be brief in nature. The exception to this
rule, however, will be at DAL and GKY where perhaps an extra hour
of MVFR stratus seems plausible given their location in the deeper
low level moisture. VFR should prevail beyond this evening and
through the remainder of the TAF cycle as northerly winds veer and
become ENE through Sunday morning. The only other aviation
concern will be a batch of weak convection that has developed in
the richer low level moisture to the south of the major airports.
This activity should continue to slide northeastward with time.
While the chance that a stray shower or two could encroach on
any of the Metroplex TAF sites before the drier air invades from
the north, the likelihood appears greater at DAL and GKY given
their residence in the better low level moisture. We will monitor
this potential through the afternoon, however. Dry air should
sweep through all TAF sites during the overnight hours, mitigating
any overnight convective concerns at this time. If drier air does
not slide southward as currently anticipated and/or return flow is
stronger tonight, future TAFs may include some sort of
precipitation.

For the Waco TAF site---MVFR stratus should also continue to thin
here as heating and dry air advection continues across the Hill
Country. There is a risk for some showers, but at this point in
time, feel the potential is a bit too low to include at this time.
The better potential for VCSH and perhaps VCTS will be after
midnight as low level flow above the slightly cooler surface air
occurs. For now, I will carry a broad period of VCSH just after
midnight through Sunday morning. There is a low risk for some TS,
but at this time, confidence precludes inclusion into the TAF at
this time.

24-Bain

&&

.UPDATE...
The surface cold front this morning continues moving east into
Central TX and our far eastern counties late this morning.
Overnight convective activity has exited into E TX/LA with another
weak complex moving east and skimming our far southern Central TX
counties. The cold front will continue moving slowly east-southeast
this afternoon and should clear our far southeast counties by
early this evening. Ripples of shortwave energy aloft will also
continue to transverse east across Central and South-Central TX
through the day and into tonight.

I will continue to hold low-mid chances for convection across the
southeast of a Lampasas-Waco-Canton/Athens in advance of the
slow-moving cold front this afternoon. The environment across this
area has been pretty well worked over and contaminated by last
night`s storms and heavier rain. Also, lingering cloud cover
should hamper this area from re-charging environmentally for any
rough weather. Though a strong storm is possible from Cameron to
Palestine, the severe weather threat is expected to be confined
much further south across South-Central TX/the I-10 corridor and
to the mid-upper TX coastline.

Updated forecast has been sent and do not expect any further
changes, but will monitor high-resolution model and current
regional radar/satellite data closely.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/
A cold front will continue to move slowly southeast across the
region this morning and exit the forecast area this afternoon. A
broken line of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the
cold front will exit the region this morning with only some
lingering post frontal showers and a few storms across the
southeast zones this afternoon. The severe weather potential will
decrease significantly through the day as the upper low lifts
northward across the Central Plains and dry/subsident air filters
in from the north. A few storms could still briefly become severe
across the east/southeast zones, mainly this morning with damaging
winds and marginally severe hail.

Today will be noticeably drier and cooler across all but the
southeast zones. Afternoon highs will range from the middle 70s
across the northwest to the middle 80s in the southeast.

The cold front is progged to remain south of the forecast area
tonight. However, weak isentropic lift will set up and result in
the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms. Most of the
activity tonight/Sunday morning should remain south of the I-20
corridor, but there is a chance that a few showers and storms
could make it a bit farther north tonight and affect parts of the
Metroplex as per the Texas Tech WRF solution. Any storms that do
develop tonight will be elevated and should be non-severe, but
will have a potential to produce locally heavy rainfall due to
high precipitable water values and slow movement.

Weak isentropic lift will continue Sunday/Sunday night which will
result in scattered showers and storms, mainly across the
southern zones. Precipitation chances will increase on
Monday/Monday night as the front begins to lift northward in
response to another developing low pressure system across the
Central Plains. The warm air advection will be brief due to the
passage of a cold front on Tuesday. The front will be a focus for
showers and storms on Tuesday followed by cooler and drier air
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The second half of next week will be rain-free with a warming
trend due to building upper level high pressure. It does appear
that rain chances will return sometime next weekend as the upper
ridge builds east and another low pressure system develops in the
west.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  61  82  65  81 /  10  20  10   5  30
Waco                82  63  81  65  79 /  20  30  20  20  50
Paris               78  58  80  60  78 /  10  10   5   0  20
Denton              77  56  81  61  80 /   5  10   5   5  30
McKinney            78  58  82  61  80 /   5  10   5   5  30
Dallas              80  62  83  66  81 /  10  20  10  10  30
Terrell             79  61  81  63  78 /  10  20  10  10  30
Corsicana           82  64  82  65  79 /  30  30  20  10  40
Temple              83  63  81  65  81 /  40  40  30  30  50
Mineral Wells       77  56  82  61  80 /   5  10   5  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/05



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