Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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211
FXUS64 KFWD 181603
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1103 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017


.UPDATE...

With the ridge taking firm control of North and Central Texas, expect
to see most showers and thunderstorms well southeast of our CWA.
PWAT values within North and Central Texas are between 1.2 in the
northeast to 1.8 inches in the south. A weak upper level trough
extending from around the Houston area to New Orleans is providing
enough forcing for ascent for scattered showers and thunderstorms
in that region. This disturbance may bring isolated showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm or two to areas south of a Gatesville to
Groesbeck to Palestine line this afternoon.

High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat
index values between 95 and 104 degrees at locations. Winds will
be out of the southeast between 5 and 10 mph.

Hernandez

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/
12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None major at Metroplex Terminals. Very low convective
potential at Waco TAF site. Otherwise, VFR.

VFR should prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 to 30 hours
as weak low level wind flow should mitigate any strong low level
moisture advection northward. Generally clear skies should yield
to areas of afternoon cumulus across all North and Central TX TAF
sites. NAM guidance remains aggressive with advertising MVFR cigs
at Waco this morning, but this appears unlikely given the latest
satellite presentation. Southerly winds should continue this
morning with speeds of up to 8 to 12 knots.

For this afternoon---there`s a very low potential that convection
may develop INVOF the Waco TAF site. Current water vapor imagery,
however, suggests that a very subsident airmass should continue to
slide southward through Central TX limiting this potential. As a
result, I`ve kept the Waco TAF site rain-free, but trends in
satellite fields will be monitored through the day.

24-Bain

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

An elongated upper level trough extended from near the Great
Lakes region down southwestward through the Ozarks and South
Plains this morning. This feature should continue to slide
southward, spreading largely subsident air across North and parts
of Central TX. The subsident air will ensure that temperatures
will climb into the mid to upper 90s for much of the region. While
deep mixing isn`t forecast to occur beneath the subsident air, it
appears that just enough boundary layer overturning will occur
such that dewpoints fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. This
yields max heat index values of up to 102 degrees for most
locales. If mixing is non-existent, dewpoints may be a tad under
forecast.

There will be low chances for showers and an isolated
thunderstorm or two mainly south of a Palestine to Temple/Killeen
to Goldthwaite line. Some hi-res guidance does indicate that
convection may fire as far north as the Red River, but given the
expected subsident airmass, this appears unlikely. Meager values
of deep layer shear should preclude the threat for organized
thunderstorm modes and thus a widespread severe weather risk.
However, with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s, there
will be a risk for strong to perhaps damaging downbursts with any
convection that develops. Brief heavy rain will also be possible
with any storms. Again---the overall coverage of showers/storms
will be low across the forecast area as subsidence will likely
continue to overspread the remainder of Central TX through the
day. Convection should wane a couple of hours after sunset.
Overnight low temperatures into Wednesday morning should fall into
the low to mid 70s.

24-Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/
/Wednesday through Monday/

With the upper ridge continuing to build across the central and
southern Plains through the end of the week, temperatures will
remain hot and rain chances will remain minimal across North
Texas. The only exception may be in our extreme southeastern
counties each afternoon from Wednesday through the end of the week
where some very isolated sea breeze activity could sneak in
before evening. Coverage should be less than 10%. Otherwise, the
weather pattern will be rather benign with temperatures creeping
into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees by Friday and continuing
through the weekend. The main concern through the remainder of the
week will be the humid conditions with dewpoints only mixing into
the upper 60s each afternoon. This will yield heat index values
in the 105 to 107 degree range from Wednesday through the weekend
which would likely require a multi-day heat advisory for much of
the region.


The upper ridge looks like it may retreat back to the west by
early next week as flow over the western U.S. becomes a little
more amplified. This could send a weak front down into the
Arklatex region sometime on Monday and could serve as a focus for
a little better coverage of showers and storms. We`ll keep an eye
on this possibility.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  78  97  79  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
Waco                95  75  97  76  98 /  10  10   5   0   0
Paris               94  73  94  74  95 /  10  10   5   5   0
Denton              96  74  96  76  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
McKinney            96  74  95  76  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
Dallas              97  79  97  79  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
Terrell             96  74  95  76  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           96  77  95  76  97 /  10  10   5   0   0
Temple              95  74  98  75  99 /  20  20  10   0   5
Mineral Wells       95  72  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08



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