Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS64 KFWD 122350
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

No major concerns this TAF cycle, as winds should remain
northerly around 10 knots through Saturday night, as surface ridge
continues nosing in from the north through tonight. Another cold
FROPA is expected after sunrise Saturday, reinforcing the north
flow across the region.

VFR will persist through the period at all airports, despite a
mid-level shortwave moving southeast across KS/OK within
northwest flow aloft providing scattered mid-high level
cloudiness overhead. No precipitation is expected.

05/

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 318 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/
Northwest flow aloft and northerly winds at the surface will keep
dry and cold air in place tonight. Wind speeds will decrease
between 5 and 10 mph after sunset which will allow for efficient
radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the 20s overnight
with even a few upper teens across the north and northwest zones.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 318 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/
The upper level pattern will remain amplified on Saturday with a
ridge across the western U.S. and a trough in the east. This will
keep it mostly clear and dry across the state but still cool with
highs ranging from the upper 30s near the Red River to the middle
40s in the south. Lows Saturday night will bottom out once again
in the 20s.

The shallow cold air will finally start to modify on Sunday as the
Gulf opens up in response to a developing surface trough across
the Northern and Central Plains. This will bring warmer and more
humid air to the region with afternoon highs Sunday from the
middle 40s to the middle 50s and lows Sunday night in the 30s.

Low level warm/moist advection will continue on Monday ahead of
the approaching surface trough and cold front. The cold front
should enter North Texas Monday afternoon, but most locations
will reach the peak heating hours of the day prior to its arrival,
so afternoon highs will warm into the 50s to around 60.

Sharply falling temperatures are expected Monday evening with
gusty northerly winds. The ECMWF, Canadian and GFS solutions all
develop precipitation behind the front Monday night which should
initially start out as a cold rain. However, all models linger
some precipitation into the late evening and overnight hours when
surface temperatures will be well below freezing. The big question
is how much precipitation will be in the subfreezing air and how
deep will the cold air be. Since this event is still several days
out, we will not get too detailed on weather type and transition
times, but we will keep the possibility of a winter mix Monday
night in all zones with the best chances across the southern half
of the region. Since there is good model consistency on timing and
QPF, we have decided to increase PoPs in all zones. It is way too
early to anticipate impacts, but if the models verify there would
most likely be some type of accumulations.

Some light winter precipitation will be possible through the
morning hours Tuesday across the southern zones until
dry/subsident air moves in on the back side of the departing upper
trough. Tuesday will be a rather cold day with afternoon highs
struggling to get above freezing.

Clearing skies and decreasing northerly winds Tuesday night will
result in overnight lows in the teens and 20s.

A slow warmup is expected the second half of next week with
southerly winds returning by Thursday ahead of another upper
trough. There is some model disagreement regarding precipitation
on Thursday, so for now we will keep a dry forecast.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    24  40  27  50  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                23  44  24  51  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               22  38  23  44  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              21  40  24  48  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            22  39  23  46  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              25  41  27  50  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             23  41  24  48  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           24  42  26  48  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              24  45  25  52  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       22  41  23  52  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/79



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.