000
FXUS64 KFWD 161553 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1053 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
UPPER HIGH EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. BEST MOISTURE
PER GOES SATELLITE PWAT IMAGERY IS ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. ACCAS SEEN OUTSIDE INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
HIGH-RES HRRR/RAP AND TECH WRF TO A LESSER EXTENT ARE THE ONLY
MODELS CLOSE TO ANY REALITY IN THIS WEAK FLOW SITUATION TODAY.

WILL ADJUST POPS FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THESE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN...AS SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES TRANSVERSES
EAST WITH TIME. SOME RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO PLAY A
ROLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING
OUTDOOR EVENTS FATHERS DAY WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20/I-30.

DID LOWER HIGHS SOME OUT WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
CURRENT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET...ALTHOUGH CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE...AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. SCT/BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

HAMPSHIRE


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BREAKS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS...THE SEMI-
WET PERIOD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRY AND WARM/HOT
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY STILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND TEXAS TECH WRF
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE HRRR MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE...SO HAVE JUST GONE
WITH 20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES FOR
TODAY WHERE HAVE PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS AND THE NORTHEAST WHERE
THERE ARE 30 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS TO BE
CLOSER TO WHAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE INDICATING. AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
GRAHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECWMF...CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
NAM...THAT THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND STALL IT NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT...SO HAVE
PLACED 30-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD AND AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  93  73  87 /  20  10  20  40  30
WACO, TX              96  75  95  74  92 /  10  10  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             92  73  90  71  85 /  30  20  30  40  30
DENTON, TX            92  75  91  72  86 /  20  20  20  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          92  74  92  71  86 /  20  20  20  40  30
DALLAS, TX            95  76  94  74  89 /  20  10  20  40  30
TERRELL, TX           94  74  93  73  89 /  20  10  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         95  74  94  73  91 /  10  10  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            96  74  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  74  93  72  87 /  20  10  20  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

85/05