Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 131132
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
632 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS SOUTHWARD BEHIND YESTERDAY/S COLD
FRONT. WEAK OVERRUNNING ATOP THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOME
HAS YIELDED A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE IFR
CIGS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX BUT MAY LINGER IN THE
WACO AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH
TEXAS...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS CIGS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
MORNING. IF FUTURE DATA POINTS TOWARDS A CLEARING TREND
OVERNIGHT...WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR THE
SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN ROUGHLY THE LOWEST 10000 FT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A VERY COOL DAY FOR MID SEPTEMBER
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S. A BREEZY NORTH WIND THIS MORNING WILL STEADILY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

SURFACE MOISTURE WILL SCOUR OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ABOVE 900 MB AND EVEN INCREASE ABOVE 700 MB AS TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVES NORTH TOWARD BAJA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST CLOUDY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN THE EAST. NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN LIFT IS ENHANCED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE FRONT WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN ALL ZONES.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  63  83  71  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              74  60  85  69  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             71  57  78  64  84 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            71  58  81  67  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          69  58  81  65  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            71  61  83  71  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           71  60  82  68  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  63  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  59  86  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  58  82  67  88 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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