Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 182052
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
252 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

Moisture return will be in full swing tonight ahead of a deepening
upper trough along the West Coast. Shortly after one shortwave
moves east of the forecast area this evening, larger scale lift
will begin to arrive overnight as the main upper trough axis
drops south through the Great Basin. Strong warm/moist
advection and weak large-scale ascent should be enough to
generate occasional showers through the overnight hours. Once
this initial shortwave moves to our east, however, overall
coverage should be fairly low, and POPs will remain predominantly
in the slight chance category. Patchy fog and drizzle will
continue to be a possibility tonight, though winds are expected to
remain strong enough to preclude the potential for dense fog.
Otherwise, after a chilly day, increasing dewpoints means that
temperatures will either hold steady or actually increase
overnight.


30

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Monday through Sunday/

A persistent large scale trough in the west and the passage of
several shortwaves will bring multiple opportunities for rain and
thunderstorms through next weekend.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected on
Monday as increasing low level moisture joins forces with broad
large scale lift associated with the upper trough to the west. We
were concerned over the past couple of days that the dryline
would enter the western zones during the afternoon, but this seems
unlikely now. We will also have a strong cap in place through the
day which will keep any convection on Monday elevated, therefore,
only isolated storms are expected.

Mid level lapse rates will increase Monday night into Tuesday and
moisture will deepen ahead of the approaching upper trough and
associated cold front. This will result in numerous showers and
thunderstorms. The primary hazard associated with these storms
will be from heavy rainfall since precipitable water values will
be at or above 1.5 inches across much of the region. There will be
a potential for a few surface based/marginally severe storms
Tuesday afternoon as a dryline makes a run at the western
counties but widespread severe weather is not expected.

A cold front will cross the Red River Tuesday night and become a
focus for additional showers and thunderstorms with the best
chances for storms with heavy rainfall shifting to the east and
southeast zones overnight through Wednesday. Rainfall totals
across the eastern counties of North Texas through Wednesday will
likely exceed 2 inches with some areas receiving well above 3
inches. Rainfall of this magnitude will likely result in localized
flooding and possibly even some river flooding. It still appears
that the flooding threat will be localized so we will not issue a
a watch at this point in time.

Temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the 30s across the
northwest zones and some locations will even see some freezing
temperatures. Since the rainfall will have ended in the areas that
cool into the lower 30s, we don`t anticipate any freezing
precipitation.

Although precipitation chances will temporarily end from northwest
to southeast Wednesday night, they will return on Thursday and
continue through Saturday as the cold front lifts back to the
north in response to another approaching upper trough and
associated surface lee trough. Precipitation chances will decrease
from west to east Saturday night through Sunday with the passage
of another cold front.

Temperatures through the week will be a roller coaster ride with
highs Monday and Tuesday mainly in the 70s, falling into mainly
the 40s and 50s Wednesday and Thursday, then warming back into the
60s Friday through Sunday. The coldest morning will be Thursday
with lows ranging from near 30 in the northwest to the middle 40s
in the southeast. Most other mornings this week will see
temperatures near or above seasonal normals.

79

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1137 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/
Moisture trapped beneath this morning`s inversion has kept
most of the region socked in with low ceilings and visibilities.
Conditions should improve shortly, however, as a weak shortwave
and associated precipitation move across the area during he next
few hours. There continues to be occasional lightning strikes
along the southern flank of the precipitation shield, so VCTS has
been added to the KACT TAF for early afternoon.

After a brief reprieve in the wake of today`s disturbance, warm/moist
air advection will ramp up again tonight as an upper low deepens
along the West Coast and a surface low deepens in lee of the
Rockies. This will send a surge of IFR cigs northward overnight
into Monday morning, along with occasional rain showers.
Weak ascent associated with the approaching upper trough will
begin late Monday, but at this time it appears that any associated
convection will hold off until beyond the extended TAF period.


30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  73  65  72  42 /  30  40  60  80  60
Waco                63  74  66  72  51 /  20  30  40  80  80
Paris               55  71  63  70  43 /  40  40  50  90  70
Denton              58  73  63  71  38 /  30  40  60  80  60
McKinney            57  71  64  69  40 /  30  40  50  90  70
Dallas              60  73  65  71  43 /  30  40  50  80  70
Terrell             61  72  65  71  46 /  40  40  50  80  70
Corsicana           62  74  66  72  53 /  20  30  40  80  80
Temple              62  74  65  71  54 /  20  30  40  80  80
Mineral Wells       59  77  61  72  37 /  20  40  70  80  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/30



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