Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 301800
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1200 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at the Metroplex and Waco TAF sites
through 00z Friday. The surface high currently centered to our
west will transit the region late this afternoon. Thus north
winds 12-15 knots at TAF issuance time will be light northerly by
00z and back around to the southwest around 5 knots tonight and
to the south 6 to 8 knots Thursday.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/
Dry and cool air will filter into the region today behind a
departing upper trough and cold front. Cold air advection today
will be offset by abundant sunshine after some morning mid level
clouds exit to the east. Afternoon highs will range from middle
50s along the Red River to the middle 60s across the far southern
zones.

Decreasing wind speeds tonight, dry air and a clear sky will
result in efficient radiational cooling with overnight lows
generally in the 30s. Nearly all areas should remain above
freezing but a few rural locations may approach 32 degrees by
sunrise Thursday.

The weather pattern will remain active Thursday through the
weekend as an upper trough deepens in the west. Initially the
developing system will result in a return of low level moisture
and warmer temperatures Thursday/Thursday night followed by
increasing rain chances on the weekend. The precipitation should
begin as light rain showers across the western zones Friday
afternoon with widespread rain Friday night through Saturday as a
thin layer of cool air moves in at the surface and Gulf moisture
is lifted over the top of it. It appears that mid level instability
will be weak and thunderstorms will be very isolated. Rain amounts
should not be enough to result in any major flooding concerns.

The extended models continue to cut off a piece of energy from
the main upper trough and lift it across the state Sunday through
Monday. There is some timing/strength differences between the GFS
and ECMWF so for now we will keep PoPs fairly low (20%-30%). Even
though cold air will already be in place in the low levels, it
does not appear cold enough for any winter precipitation to
accompany the upper low as it lifts across the region. The
stronger dynamics and colder temperatures associated with the
passing system will bring a slightly better chance of thunder
however.

Dry and subsident air will move into North and Central Texas
Monday night and remain in place through Tuesday. However, another
strong low pressure system is progged to develop across the
western CONUS Tuesday night/Wednesday. This approaching system
will bring a quick return of low level moisture Wednesday along
with increasing precipitation chances.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  40  65  46  62 /   5   0   0   5  10
Waco                62  35  63  44  64 /   5   0   0   5  20
Paris               57  35  61  39  61 /   5   0   0   5  10
Denton              58  35  63  42  60 /   5   0   0   5  10
McKinney            58  36  62  42  61 /   5   0   0   5  10
Dallas              60  42  64  46  64 /   5   0   0   5  10
Terrell             59  36  63  43  62 /   5   0   0   5  10
Corsicana           61  38  64  44  65 /   5   0   0   5  10
Temple              62  36  64  45  65 /   5   0   0   5  20
Mineral Wells       59  35  64  42  60 /   5   0   0   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/90



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