Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 162126
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS
THIS WEEK CAN BE SEEN OFF THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES WITH A SECOND AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST
FETCH AHEAD OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
MOSTLY SUNNY ALL DAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA
YESTERDAY...KEEPING A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE FRONT
HAS MADE IT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPROACHES. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
LOCATIONS...LEADING TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE PROCESS
APPEARS TO ALREADY BE IN THE BEGINNING PHASES OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS
WHERE STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE CLOSER TO HOME TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING LIFT AND
MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE
AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON IN THIS
WEATHER PATTERN. EITHER WAY...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE QUICKLY
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ACCELERATES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNGLIDE ENSUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TOMORROW DUE TO THICK LOW
CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BUT MOST SPOTS SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE SWINGS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE COASTAL FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH TEXAS...WHICH IS WHERE THE
MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS
OVER NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING AND ONLY LOW-END POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR NOW.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1222 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE ARE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LATTER QUARTER OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH THE FIRST
18-24 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS VISIBILITY AND CEILING
RESTRICTIONS...PRIMARILY AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE TAF SITE. THE SURFACE
RIDGE NOW CENTERED ACROSS NE COLORADO SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
TOWARDS THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DECREASE DOWN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND VERTICAL MIXING DECREASES. INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. WINDS AROUND
070-010KFT WILL EVENTUALLY TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH /ALREADY
EVIDENT WITH NORTHWARD MOVING STRATUS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY/ AND WILL HELP TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE COOLER/DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. THIS
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS
THE METROPLEX AROUND 9 UTC ON WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL METROPLEX TERMINALS
BEGINNING AROUND 1800 UTC. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS /2100 UTC/ AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS AS
ASCENT AND CONTINUED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IMPINGE ON THE AREA. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
/2-3KFT/ DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. IF ASCENT IS VIGOROUS ENOUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURS...CIGS /AND
PERHAPS VISBY WITH -DZ/ MAY DETERIORATE MORE RAPIDLY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
EFFECTS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO 2100 UTC AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCSH
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
TOWARDS THE NNE-NE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING
DECREASES. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. VFR STRATUS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER
LIFT ACCOMPANIED WITH THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR NORTH
AND WEST OF THE WACO TAF SITE THROUGH 18 UTC WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS. SHOULD THE BETTER LIFT BECOME
DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUSION OF VCSH OR SHRA MAY BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

15-BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  38  46  43  60  46 /   0  60  50  20  50
WACO, TX              39  48  45  63  49 /   5  60  60  20  60
PARIS, TX             34  46  40  53  43 /   5  60  70  20  40
DENTON, TX            36  45  41  58  44 /   0  60  50  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          34  45  41  57  44 /   0  60  60  20  40
DALLAS, TX            39  47  43  60  47 /   0  60  60  20  50
TERRELL, TX           35  48  43  60  47 /   0  60  70  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         38  50  46  62  49 /   0  50  70  20  60
TEMPLE, TX            40  49  46  64  50 /   5  60  50  20  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  44  41  61  43 /   0  60  40  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30





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