Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 231811 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
111 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

For the Metroplex sites: the lingering effects of subsidence aloft
are still evident on recent ACARS soundings and objective
analysis. Likewise, the expansive cumulus field remains more
limited in vertical development than to the west and southeast
where moisture is just a bit more abundant. Have continued a
window of VCSH this afternoon as the Metroplex sites look to be
sandwiched between better convective chances to the west and
east. A more robust shield of MVFR stratus is expected to move
northward late tonight on a stronger low-level jet. Given the
more robust wind fields and increased moisture profiles, IFR cigs
may also be possible, but confidence in this was not high enough
to introduce into the TAFs at this time. Cigs will be slower to
scatter than this afternoon.

For the DFW extended, thunder chances will increase on Saturday
afternoon ahead of an approaching storm system. Have inserted VCTS
after 19Z to account for the higher convective potential.

For the Waco site: the Cu field has a bit more vertical
development to it. As a result, have added a brief window of VCTS
here, but any convection should be short lived. MVFR cigs will
overspread the airport tonight, with a period of IFR cigs
developing around sunrise. Any thunder impacts look to wait until
just after the valid TAF window.



The current forecast looks on track and made mostly only minor
hourly adjustments for the remainder of the day. The upper level
ridge will continue to dominate the region today with temperatures
climbing into the 90s this afternoon. Showers are already
approaching our southeastern and southern counties this morning
with additional convection expected this afternoon. Most of the
rain activity is expected to be across our western counties and
southeastern counties with isolated to scattered coverage;
however, will keep a mention of at least isolated convection
everywhere in North and Central Texas. Severe weather is not



The upper level ridge that has kept North and Central Texas
unseasonably warm and mostly dry for the last several days is
finally starting to break down. Water vapor satellite loops this
morning show a large upper level trough over the western U.S. with
a low centered over the Great Basin. The low will lift north
northeast during the next couple of days as the upper trough
hangs out across the western U.S. The upper low will then move
across the northern plains and into southern Ontario by the middle
of next week. Meanwhile, the models indicate a shortwave will
move down the western side of the ridge and deepen over eastern
Arizona/western New Mexico Saturday night. To varying degrees, the
ECMWF, GFS and Canadian indicate that the low will then sink south
or southwest through the middle of next week while upper level
ridging develops across Texas by midweek.

Some patchy fog may develop across Central Texas this morning
toward daybreak. The high resolution models are indicating
that some warm advection showers may develop and move northward
across the eastern zones this morning. With increasing moisture
today, we should start to see some isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms develop this afternoon across the forecast area.
The Precipitable Water value was around 1.1 inches on the 23/00z
FWD RAOB. PWs should rise to around 1.5 this afternoon and to
nearly 2 inches on Saturday. As a series of weak shortwaves move
out ahead of the main upper level trough to our west, we should
see at least scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area Saturday with the best chances being across the
northwestern zones which will be closer to the best lift.

More widespread rain is expected overnight Saturday night
through Sunday night with the approach and then passage of a
cold front. Expect 1 to over 3 inches of rain during the
this period with locally higher amounts. This may result in
some flooding issues. We will keep chances of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through Tuesday with lingering
chances across areas southwest of a Breckenridge to Palestine line
Tuesday night. An upper level ridge is then expected to build
which should keep the region dry Wednesday and Thursday.

We will have another unseasonably warm day today with highs in
the lower to middle 90s. With increased cloud cover Saturday
highs will be slightly cooler - upper 80s to lower 90s. The cold
front is expected to move into the northwestern zones Sunday
morning and move through Central Texas by Sunday evening. This
along with the more widespread rain will result in much cooler
temperatures with highs expected to range from the upper 70s
northwest to the upper 80s southeast. The below seasonal normal
temperatures are expected to prevail next week with highs in the
70s to lower 80s Monday and Tuesday...and upper 70s to mid 80s
Wednesday and Thursday. Low will be in the 50s and 60s for most of
next week.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  76  90  72  82 /  10  10  30  40  80
Waco                94  75  91  72  84 /  20  10  30  30  70
Paris               91  72  90  71  83 /  20  10  30  30  60
Denton              92  74  89  71  81 /  10  10  30  50  80
McKinney            92  74  90  71  82 /  10  10  30  40  70
Dallas              94  77  91  72  83 /  10  10  30  40  80
Terrell             93  74  91  72  84 /  20  10  30  30  60
Corsicana           92  74  91  71  85 /  30  10  30  30  60
Temple              92  74  90  72  85 /  20  10  40  30  70
Mineral Wells       92  73  89  71  79 /  20  20  40  60  80


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