Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 212345 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
645 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

No aviation concerns are expected the next 24 hours, as VFR
conditions prevail underneath a broad upper ridge centered over
the Ozarks. Subsidence will remain strong enough across North and
Central TX airports to keep any convection at bay.

A few CU will return on Saturday with a thin band of moisture
centered between FL 070-090. Otherwise, south-southeast winds
near 10 knots will prevail.

05/

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 319 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/
A strong mid-upper ridge remains anchored over the Central CONUS
as seen on the latest satellite imagery and upper air analyses.
Subsidence from the ridge combined with the dewpoints in the 70s
means that uncomfortably hot weather will continue into the
weekend. Overnight lows tonight will likely remain near 80
degrees in the highly urbanized areas of the DFW Metroplex, with
mid and upper 70s elsewhere. The Heat advisory will continue
through Saturday, with little in the way of rain chances until
perhaps late in the weekend (see long term section).

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 319 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/
/Saturday through Friday/

Saturday will once again feature toasty conditions, with high
temperatures soaring into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
Dewpoints, which will start the day off in the mid 70s, will
gradually mix into the upper 60s and lower 70s along and east of
the I-35 corridor, right in step with trends over the past few
days. This combination will result in heat index values in the
105-108 degree range. As a result, a Heat Advisory will continue
through Saturday evening for locations roughly along and east of a
Bowie to Killeen line.

A very subtle ripple/weakness in the mid-level flow is currently
evident traipsing across the Texas Big Country. This feature will
continue to meander just to our west on Saturday, and some high-
resolution guidance seems to be hinting at the possibility of a
few showers popping up pretty much area-wide with the heating of
the day. Lingering large-scale subsidence afforded by the
retreating mid-level high to our north may be enough to keep any
activity very limited, and we`ll cover this outside potential with
silent 10% PoPs for the time being. A better spatio-temporal
overlap of moisture and a bit of lift will exist across our far
southeastern counties during the afternoon as an upper-low
currently pinwheeling westward across the Gulf of Mexico impinges
upon the region. Activity looks to remain limited enough to cap
PoPs at 20% south and east of a Temple to Athens line. A strong
wind gust or two can`t be ruled out with surface air temperatures
in the upper 90s.

On Sunday, North and Central Texas will become sandwiched between
the aformentioned upper-low to our south, and a weak stalling cold
front to our north in Oklahoma. Interestingly, the 3-km NAM fires
off isolated convection across our western counties during the
morning hours. Normally, this would appear a bit overdone, but
given supporting evidence of some weak isentropic upglide across
this region co-located with some mid-level instability, went ahead
and added in a low (10%) chance of an isolated storm or two during
the morning hours. With a moist and unstable atmosphere developing
as heating takes place, isolated to scattered convection will be
possible across the entire region during the afternoon.

Regarding heat index values: it appears additional low-level
moisture will slosh into the region. That said, a good deal of
uncertainty exists regarding how early convection fires, which
will obviously impact high temperatures. As a result, we elected
to hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Sunday for the time
being. If it appears clouds and storms will remain at bay later
into the afternoon, then either an extension of the current Heat
Advisory, or a smaller advisory may be warranted. Whether an
advisory is issued or not, it will continue to be HOT, and proper
precautions against heat-related illness should be exercised.

Low storm chances will linger on Monday mainly north of I-20 as
storms firing in Oklahoma may drift into North Texas. Thereafter,
high pressure will once again begin to build back overhead during
the middle and end of the week. Heat indices are expected to once
again rise into the 105-110 degree range on Thursday and Friday,
which may necessitate additional heat headlines into the upcoming
weekend. Unfortunately, the dog days of summer are here to stay.


Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  99  80  98  80 /   5  10   5  20  20
Waco                77 100  78  98  77 /   5  10  10  20  20
Paris               76  96  75  94  74 /   5   5   5  30  20
Denton              78  99  78  98  76 /   5  10   5  20  20
McKinney            77  97  77  95  76 /   5  10   5  30  20
Dallas              82 100  81  97  80 /   5  10   5  20  20
Terrell             77  96  76  97  76 /   5  10   5  30  20
Corsicana           77  98  77  96  76 /   5  10   5  30  20
Temple              76  99  76  97  75 /   5  10  10  20  10
Mineral Wells       76  99  76  98  74 /   5  10   5  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$

05/26



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