Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 182258
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
558 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN AXIS OF RICH MOISTURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER WEST TEXAS...SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...THEN EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS PLACES NORTH
TEXAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AND TODAY/S
CONVECTIVE WEATHER HAS ACCORDINGLY BEEN MOST ACTIVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN LOCALES INCLUDING THE WACO AREA. AS ONE
LINE OF STORMS PUSHES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...A SECOND BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION APPROACHES THE WACO AREA FROM THE NORTH. WE
WILL LIKELY BEGIN THIS TAF SEQUENCE WITH VCTS AT KACT AND POSSIBLY
INCLUDE A 1 OR 2 HOUR WINDOW OF LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO MODERATE
OR HEAVY RAIN. THESE STORMS SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF WACO 02-03Z WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO INVADE KACT PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED...WITH A RETURN TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DALLAS FORT WORTH AREA...MUCH QUIETER AVIATION WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE...IMPROVING TO VFR BY
MID DAY FRIDAY.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING INDICATED TWO DISTINCT BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE
FIRST WAS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHICH HAS SINCE MOVED TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND HELPED FIRE OFF
SOME SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DENTON SOUTHEAST TO CANTON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW SPREADING
SOUTH OUT OF THEM. THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO WACO AND SOUTHEAST OF THERE. THIS APPEARS TO
BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE TWO BOUNDARIES AND IS ACTUALLY
REFLECTED WEAKLY AT 850MB AND 700MB. WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN
THIS VERY MOIST UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SMALLER CLUSTERS WILL TEND
TO WEAKLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE FASTER THAN SURROUNDING STORMS. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS PICKING UP SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND OTHERS MISSING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THIS...THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA BUT WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE MORE SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANT UPPER
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST FORCING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FLARE UP OF CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WILL
HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN
SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  91  74  92  74 /  10  20  10  30  20
WACO, TX              70  89  72  91  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             68  89  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            70  90  71  91  72 /  10  10  10  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          69  90  69  90  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  90  74  91  74 /  10  20  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           70  89  71  91  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         71  90  71  91  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            70  88  72  90  72 /  70  40  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  89  72  88  71 /  20  30  20  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ141>143-
156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



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