Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 122143
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
343 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017
A cold front was sliding slowly south across North Texas this
afternoon. The front was beginning to lose its punch and will
most likely stall south of the Interstate 20 corridor tonight.
Temperatures will vary greatly across the CWA with the Red River
counties cooling into the middle 30s and the southwest zones
remaining warm with middle 60s.
Scattered showers are expected to develop tonight with increasing
isentropic lift. The best chance of showers will be along and
just north of the front. Some patchy drizzle and fog will also be
possible generally south of the front during the overnight hours.
The cold front will remain nearly stationary on Friday as two
distinctly different airmasses battle for position. The southern
CWA will remain humid and mild Friday while the northern zones
will struggle to warm out of the 30s.
Large scale upward vertical motion will begin to increase
across the Southern Plains Friday through Saturday as a deep
upper low begins to lift across Southern California/Northern Baja.
As a result, mid level lapse rates will increase slightly which
will result in the potential for isolated thunderstorms along
with scattered showers. The highest rain chances in the Friday
through Saturday timeframe will be across the west/northwest
zones where the best large scale lift will reside. It still
appears that all temperatures will remain above freezing Friday
through Saturday so no freezing/frozen precipitation is expected.
The cold front will quickly lift north Saturday night in response
to the approaching low pressure system. This system will reach
Far West Texas on Sunday and lift to the Central Plains by Monday.
Increasing moisture and lift across the entire region will result
in numerous showers and thunderstorms. It still appears that
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat due to deep moisture.
There will also be abundant shear to sustain updrafts, however
limited instability should keep the storm tops rather low. There
will still be some severe potential Sunday through Monday if the
atmosphere can destabilize more than currently forecast.
The departing upper low will allow a surge of dry and subsident
air Tuesday. This will bring a decrease in precipitation chances
Tuesday/Tuesday night with all precipitation ending on Wednesday.
The second half of next week should be precipitation free with
brief ridging aloft and a slow return of low level moisture.
/ISSUED 1140 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/
Main concern through the period will be a cold frontal passage
followed by strong moisture return above the colder air and areas
of low clouds and drizzle. The cold front is currently located
just to the northwest of the Metroplex and is expected to slowly
move through the region over the next few hours. Current forecast
has the front moving through the major airports in the 21-22Z
timeframe with a wind shift to the northwest. MVFR cigs currently
prevail but may briefly scatter near the front before becoming
MVFR again behind the front. Later tonight...ceilings are expected
to lower and are likely to become IFR shortly after midnight as
strong moisture advection surges northward above the shallow cold
air. Areas of low clouds and drizzle are expected to prevail later
tonight into Friday morning. Conditions may improve slightly by
Friday afternoon but low MVFR cigs will likely still prevail.
At Waco...it does appear that the front will slowly slide south
through the area later tonight. Ahead of the front...MVFR cigs are
likely to prevail with IFR conditions behind the front. IFR
conditions will likely prevail through Friday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 43 47 42 51 47 / 40 40 40 40 20
Waco 58 58 47 62 53 / 30 40 30 30 20
Paris 45 57 51 60 56 / 30 50 50 40 20
Denton 40 44 40 47 46 / 40 50 50 40 30
McKinney 42 48 42 51 47 / 40 40 50 40 20
Dallas 44 49 43 53 48 / 30 40 40 40 20
Terrell 48 55 47 60 53 / 30 40 40 30 20
Corsicana 57 62 50 66 56 / 30 40 30 20 20
Temple 63 71 48 66 56 / 30 40 30 30 20
Mineral Wells 40 42 38 47 46 / 40 50 50 50 30