Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 152015
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
315 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Through Tonight/

It`s a much quieter short term forecast this afternoon as the
cold front that has brought a taste of Fall to the area continues
to plow through South TX. Breezy north winds have ushered in
cooler conditions with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

For tonight, breezy north winds will relax as surface high
pressure settles in across west TX and the Big Country. Mid-level
cumuliform clouds should diminish with just a few high clouds,
especially across Central TX. Dry air in place at the surface
should result in a good radiational cooling night across most of
the area. The limiting factor for more optimal nocturnal cooling,
however, will be elevated winds just above the surface. This is
reflected in forecast soundings and this output indicates that the
boundary layer will not completely decouple from the free
atmosphere. All that being stated, it should still be a cool and
crisp night! Temperatures should still fall into the low to mid
40s across northwest/western zones (closer to the center of the
surface ridge) and 50s elsewhere. A few of the more
sheltered/rural sites across Central and East TX may also see
temperatures dip into the upper 40s.

24-Bain

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Monday through Sunday/

The upper level trough that helped push today`s front through the
region will be moving across the Northeastern CONUS on Monday, and
weak upper level ridging from the west will replace our large
scale weather pattern. Monday will still be a pleasant day under
the influence of northwest flow aloft, clear skies and
significantly lighter surface winds. Highs will be in the 70s,
and then it will cool into the 40s overnight. Some locations in
our western and northwestern counties may even dip into the upper
30s. Optimal radiational cooling in this area may be mitigated by
a quick return of southwest winds in the 925-850 mb layer, but
wind speeds should be light enough that maybe a handful of sites
will drop below the 40-degree mark.

Pleasant temperatures and dry weather will continue Tuesday
through Thursday, but temperatures will warm a little each day as
the upper level ridge moves through the area from our southwest
to our southeast. Highs in the lower to mid 80s will be common
during the latter half of the week. Overnight lows will also
slowly warm and will increase more noticeably by Friday when
better low level moisture return is expected.

On Friday, a weak upper level trough will move into the region,
and a few showers and thunderstorms may occur across parts of
Central Texas where better moisture will reside. A stronger upper
level trough is expected on the heels of the weaker trough, but
continued timing differences between the models lend little
confidence in the forecast for next weekend. The ECMWF is the
fastest with the upper level trough, bringing it and a front
through on Saturday night-Sunday. The GFS is slower and stalls
the upper level trough to our west. GEFS ensemble spreads and the
EPS (European Ensembles) also seem to favor a slower timing, but
we will wait and watch the trends.

JLDunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/
18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Cessation of MVFR cigs at Waco. VFR at Metroplex TAFs.
Otherwise, breezy north winds at all TAF sites.

MVFR stratus will linger through the early afternoon at the Waco
TAF site as the back edge of low level moisture continues to be
scoured out. Thereafter, VFR will prevail at all North and Central
TX TAF sites with breezy north winds continuing this afternoon.
Sustained wind speeds should be between 15 and 18 knots, with
some wind gusts to 20 to 25 knots possible. Stratocumulus should
dissipate leaving just some mid to upper level clouds this
afternoon. Winds should decrease to 10 knots, possibly less, after
sunset this evening with just a few high clouds. North to
northeast winds will continue into Monday as surface high pressure
settles in across west TX.

24-Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  74  48  78  50 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                49  75  44  78  48 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               45  72  43  74  46 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              45  73  43  75  48 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            44  73  43  75  47 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              50  74  49  77  51 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             48  74  44  75  46 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           51  74  46  77  47 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              48  75  46  79  48 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       44  72  43  77  46 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/82



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