Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 270522
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1222 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016
Widespread convective weather extends from Kansas to Central Texas
in association with the impressive looking upper trough over
CO/NM. The line of storms which raked the Dallas-Fort Worth area
has weakened. However, good lift associated with the upper trough
continues to overspread the area in waves, an we continue to see
training thunderstorms between the DFW and Waco areas. The latest
TAF set will include a TEMPO for ts at KACT through 09z to
account for the southward shifting line of storms. Thunder in the
Metroplex should cease in another hour or two.
The HRRR advertises another round of convection prior to sunrise
as the next impulse rotates across the region. This is certainly
possible as we are seeing additional thunderstorms develop over
west-central TX. Chances are that this activity would remain more
isolated in nature due to the atmosphere being so worked over
from this evening`s storms.
Other guidance such as the Texas Tech WRF are indicating that
tonight`s activity will shift east of the region by sunrise, and
that additional storms will be possible again by Friday afternoon
as the trough shifts into the Plains. We will also have peak
heating going for us at this time, so another VCTS has been added
to all areas for Friday afternoon. These storms should move east
of the area around midnight tomorrow night as the upper trough
axis shifts east of the Plains.
The forecast has been updated to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch
219 for western counties of north and central TX. Storms are
firing in this region within an enhanced area of lift associated
with the upper trough over NM/CO. Storms will have the potential
of becoming severe for at least the next couple of hours.
Supercells have already exhibited impressive structure based on
RADAR appearance. It looks like these storms will soon be merging
into a large cluster, possible propagating east to the I-35
corridor prior to midnight. The threat for severe storms should
decrease as storms approach I-35 later this evening, but will
need to be watched for lingering damaging wind potential if it
becomes an organized MCS. Otherwise, another round of storms will
be possible again by tomorrow afternoon as the atmosphere recovers
and the main axis of the upper trough crosses the region.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
southeast sections of the forecast area through late afternoon.
These storms are in an a very moist and unstable environment and
will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall along with a
threat of strong winds.
The remainder of North and Central Texas is currently in a region
of subsidence as evident by the 18Z FWD sounding. There is still
very moist air in place across the region and some scattered
showers will be ongoing through late afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop west/southwest of the region on the dryline.
These storms should lift northeast off the dryline into western
North Texas before sunset. The extent and severity of
thunderstorms across the region will be very dependent on how much
the atmosphere can recover and how fast the cap breaks. Since
large scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
upper low will continue to increase, we feel the cap will
eventually break and that storms will increase in coverage from
west to east through the evening. Any storms that develop this
evening will have a potential to become severe, especially west
of the Interstate 35 corridor. Damaging wind and hail will be the
primary hazards. However, there will be an isolated tornado
threat generally west of the US 281 corridor through mid evening.
The most likely scenario is that evening storms will develop into
a complex that will move east/southeast across the region
overnight. Overall, the severe threat overnight will be fairly
low, but the potential for locally heavy rainfall will increase.
By Friday morning the complex of storms should move through the
east/southeast zones. The primary hazard with these storms will be
from heavy rainfall and flooding. Depending on how fast the storms
end on Friday morning...there should be a lull in activity from
late morning through early afternoon. However, storm chances will
increase again Friday afternoon as a final piece of upper level
energy associated with the upper system rotates across the region.
There will be a potential for a few severe storms along with heavy
rainfall Friday afternoon. But again, it will all depend on how
much recovery can take place after morning convection.
We will leave a flash flood watch in effect through Friday
afternoon south of a line from Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Athens.
This area will likely see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Friday
afternoon. There should even be a few spots that receive over 6
inches of rainfall before Friday evening.
Storm chances will end from west to east Friday afternoon/evening
with the departing upper trough. However, North and Central Texas
will remain in an active weather pattern through the Memorial
weekend and into next week as another upper trough develops across
the southwestern CONUS. Although it will be difficult to pinpoint
the timing and locations for storms any particular day,
atmospheric moisture will remain high through the week and any
perturbations in the flow could result in storms, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Therefore, we will leave
chance pops every day next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 89 71 86 69 / 40 20 10 20 40
Waco 71 88 70 85 69 / 40 20 10 20 30
Paris 68 85 69 85 68 / 60 30 10 20 30
Denton 68 88 68 84 67 / 30 20 10 20 40
McKinney 69 87 69 84 68 / 40 20 10 20 40
Dallas 72 89 72 86 70 / 40 20 10 20 40
Terrell 70 87 70 85 68 / 50 20 10 20 30
Corsicana 71 88 70 86 69 / 50 30 10 20 30
Temple 70 87 70 84 69 / 40 30 20 20 30
Mineral Wells 67 88 69 84 67 / 20 10 10 30 40
Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ135-142>148-