Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 220817
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
317 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Another pleasant fall day is in store before warmer temperatures and
higher humidity return on Sunday and Monday. Low rain chances will
return to the forecast toward the middle of next week as a weak
front enters the area. Otherwise, the story will be continued near
or above normal temperatures and largely dry weather for the next
7 to 10 days.
This morning, ideal radiational cooling conditions are occurring
which is allowing temperatures to fall to their lowest point
since early May. A couple climate notes: A temperature in the low
50s seems likely for DFW this morning and the last time DFW was
52 degrees or lower was May 3rd when the low was 48 degrees.
Waco`s low was 45 yesterday, but the last time the low was 44
degrees or cooler was April 7th when the temperature dropped to 43
degrees. We will warm up fairly quickly this afternoon though as
southerly flow strengthens resulting in warm advection. Overall,
conditions look fantastic for any outdoor activities taking place
Our next feature of note can be seen on water vapor imagery over
the northern Pacific. A series of shortwave disturbances will
traverse the Central US next week. In advance of the leading
shortwave, the H850 ridge will continue shifting eastward
resulting in a better southerly fetch of gulf moisture. This will
mean increasing clouds and humidity on Sunday and Monday as well
as some breezy south winds as the surface pressure gradient
tightens. This setup will also mean a return to above normal
temperatures with highs bouncing back into the 80s with lows in
the upper 50s and 60s.
As the lead shortwave enters the Central Plains on Tuesday, it
will prompt the development of a surface low in southern Nebraska
with a trialing cold front extending southwestward through the TX
Panhandle. The GFS and ECMWF are a bit more aggressive with
bringing this front into North and Central TX than on previous
runs which isn`t surprising given they`re also now depicting a
more vigorous shortwave than previous solutions. If this front
does in fact reach into our area on Wednesday as models currently
suggest, scattered thunderstorms would be possible along it.
However, the bulk of the forcing associated with the shortwave
will be displaced far to the north and east during this time,
leaving the front as the only mechanism for convective
development. Have continued the mention of 20 to 30 PoPs at this
time mostly along and north of I-20 where the front would have
enough potential to initiate some scattered storms during this
time. There will also be very little cool air behind this front
so it shouldn`t knock temperatures down more than a few degrees at
The midweek front shouldn`t take long to wash out with southerly
flow returning once again by Thursday night. An upper ridge will
build in behind the departing shortwave acting to keep the rest of
the forecast rain-free with continued above normal temperatures.
There is still quite a bit of disagreement and inconsistency on
the next potential strong front or widespread rainfall chances in
the extended guidance, but at this time it doesn`t appear we will
see any drastic changes through the next 10 days.
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/
Light southerly winds will prevail tonight and Saturday morning.
Wind speeds will increase Saturday afternoon to near 10 kts with
some gusts near 15 kts. A few high clouds may graze the skies but
otherwise SKC is expected.
Cloud cover is expected to increase Sunday night into Monday with
MVFR cigs possible.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 57 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 79 53 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 76 51 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 75 52 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 74 53 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 77 57 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 53 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 78 53 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 78 52 81 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 79 53 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 0