Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261730 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1230 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...continued MVFR cigs at KACT today.

North winds prevail at all the TAF sites in the wake of last night`s
cold front. North winds will continue through the valid TAF period
and are expected to fall below 10 kts this evening. Dry air
continues to slowly invade the region from the north. Through the
afternoon and evening hours, the southward push of dry air will
help lift cig heights. The DFW area airports are expected to
prevail low-end VFR this afternoon with bases between 035-060.
MVFR cigs at KACT between 1-2 kft at the start of the TAF period
will eventually lift above 2 kft this evening, and are expected
to be low-end VFR by midnight.

Weak showers continue across the region this afternoon with a focus
along the 850 mb theta-e boundary just north of DFW. As this
boundary continues to slowly sink south this afternoon, light
rain may occur at the DFW airports. At KACT, weak lift in the
elevated warm sector should result in light showers persisting
across Central Texas for much of the day. Will retain a VCSH
mention through 00Z at all the TAF sites with a Tempo for -RA in
the Metroplex as the line of rain shifts south.

Have removed the mention of fog from the TAF for Tuesday morning.
As drier air continues to invade south, temperature-dewpoint
spreads in the lower levels look too much for fog, and some cloud
cover may also prevent fog. There may be some light fog in places
but confidence in patchy fog affecting the airports is too low at
this time to keep the mention in.

JLDunn

&&

.UPDATE...
Precipitation is tapering off ever so slowly across North and
Central Texas while heavy showers continue just south of the
forecast area. We should see an overall decrease in activity for
the rest of the day as dry air works its way south behind
yesterday`s cold front. POPs have been adjusted slightly to
indicate the lingering showers this afternoon but all thunder has
been removed. Otherwise, minor adjustments to temperatures and sky
cover have been done to keep up with the latest trends. We are
watching the clearing line up along the Red River progressing
slowly south, so the northern half of the region could see brief
sun before dusk. Cloudy conditions will persist well into the
evening across the rest of the area.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/
Noticeably cooler air is pouring into North Texas, but the frontal
passage has yet to bring an end to the rain. The best forcing
overnight has remained anchored over South Texas, the more
vigorous convection with which is disrupting the flow above the
frontal layer. VAD wind profiler data confirms what guidance is
suggesting, meager moisture/thermal flux with wind speeds around
10kts. Across Central Texas, where the postfrontal layer is
shallow enough and the available moisture above it deep enough,
showers with heavy rain continue. However, even well behind the
boundary, residual instability (and perhaps some convectively
induced forcing heading north) has been sufficient to allow for
renewed shower development across North Central Texas early this
morning. Although these radar echoes look innocuous, their
rainfall rates are likely not. If heavy rain coincides with
locations that received considerable rainfall on Sunday, there may
be some flooding concerns, but at this time, any issues should be
isolated.

As the dry postfrontal layer continues to deepen today, the back
edge of the precipitation will cross the Red River, likely moving
south of the I-20 corridor by late in the day. The cloud shield
will remain, and afternoon temperatures will peak in the 70s
throughout nearly all of North and Central Texas today, even where
little if any rain fell during the event. Any lingering shower
activity in Central Texas should come to an end this evening.

Sunshine will emerge Tuesday, but with many locations starting
the day in the 50s and lower 60s, high temperatures may struggle
to reach 80F. A warming trend will result in more seasonal
temperatures on Wednesday, but a reinforcing shot of cool air will
arrive Wednesday night. A sunny but noticeably milder day will
follow on Thursday. Seasonal temperatures with humidity more
befitting of autumn will prevail into the opening weekend of
October. Once our maritime tropical air mass is finally scoured
out during the next 24 hours, dew points will remain below 60F
regionwide until at least early next week.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  60  81  59  86 /  30  10   5   0   0
Waco                74  62  80  55  86 /  50  20  10   5   5
Paris               76  58  81  56  85 /  20   5   5   0   0
Denton              75  53  80  52  85 /  30   5   5   0   0
McKinney            75  55  80  54  86 /  30   5   5   0   0
Dallas              75  62  80  61  87 /  30  10   5   0   0
Terrell             76  60  81  56  86 /  30  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           77  62  81  58  86 /  40  20  10   5   0
Temple              75  60  78  57  86 /  50  20  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       74  54  79  52  85 /  30  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

82/30


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