Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 311228
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
728 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

THE LAST GASP OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW IS A BATCH OF WRAP-AROUND
STRATUS NOW CLUTTERING THE SKIES OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS CONVINCED THAT AT LEAST VFR CEILINGS WILL
OCCUR MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE ECMWF MOS IS LESS
INCLINED. EVEN WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS...PERFECT PROG RH PLOTS
KEEP THE CLOUD BANK NORTHEAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES. THINK THE
MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO PESSIMISTIC. EVEN AT ITS PEAK...THE CU FIELD
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED THAN BROKEN.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/
THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE SETTING UP OVER NORTH TEXAS. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...BUT SOME
CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL ENSURE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
DAY WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE BY THIS EVENING AND A
MOSTLY CLEAR...COOL AND TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. BY SUNRISE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OR
EVEN A FEW ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THESE WILL FORM IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THIS LIFT WILL REPEAT AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHEN
ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOK A LITTLE BETTER. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST SINCE THERE ARE
SEVERAL MODELS HINTING AT SOME QPF. EITHER WAY THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT.

OTHERWISE THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S BY LATE
WEEK...WITH SOME SITES FLIRTING WITH 90 NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND VERY WET SOILS...WE EXPECT A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION THIS WEEK WHICH MEANS MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND TOO LOW WITH DEWPOINTS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
POP-UP AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE WEEK.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DISORGANIZED...AND LIKELY TOO SPARSE TO
WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  62  82  66  84 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              81  60  83  63  84 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             74  59  80  61  81 /  10   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            76  57  81  63  83 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  58  81  61  83 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            79  63  83  67  85 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           76  60  82  63  83 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         78  60  82  64  84 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  59  84  63  85 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  57  82  63  85 /   5  10  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/92




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