Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 180511
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1111 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and south winds will prevail through the period. A
SCT/BKN cloud deck around 5 kft may encroach on Waco by midday
Thursday. Wind speeds will generally be 10 kts or less.

-Stalley

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 329 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/
/Through Tonight/

The center of a 1041mb surface high associated with our cold
arctic air is located just to the northeast of the region. As a
result, winds have generally been light and variable under sunny
skies. This has resulted in a nice rebound in temperatures with
several locations now at or above freezing after a very cold
start to the day. Visible satellite imagery shows an extensive
area of cloud cover across south and southwest Texas but most of
this should remain out of our area during the overnight hours.
Light southerly winds around 5 mph overnight should be sufficient
to disrupt optimal radiational cooling, but it will nonetheless be
quite cold again. We`ll see temperatures in the teens and low 20s
across most of North and Central Texas. Any spots that do go
completely calm could see temperatures drop to 11-15 degrees.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 329 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/
/Thursday through Wednesday/

The upper level pattern will transition into a more progressive
regime with long wave troughs moving into the country from the
Pacific. The gates to the arctic will close off and the arctic
high pressure cell will gradually dissipate over the Deep South by
the end of the week. All of this spells a different (and warmer!)
weather pattern that will take hold by this weekend. In the
meantime it will take a few days for the cold airmass to moderate.

Another chilly day is in store for Thursday, but with light winds
and full sunshine, the highs near 50 in the west and the low 40s
in the east will not feel too bad. Lows Thursday night will dip
into the 20s and 30s again before the southerly winds bring
moisture and clouds into the region Friday. The clouds will be
most prevalent across the southeastern zones initially, but should
spread north into the eastern half of the region by Friday night.
Some drizzle or very light rain will be possible with this
moisture surge Friday night into Saturday over the east. High
temperatures Friday are tricky and will likely be held down in the
low to mid 40s in the cloudy areas, but may reach the lower 60s
in the sunny northwestern zones. The moderation trend will
continue into Saturday with highs in the lower 70s in the western
zones with low to mid 60s in the east where it will stay cloudy,
cool, and a little damp. Temperatures will have trouble falling
both Friday night and Saturday night as southerly winds, warm
advection, and cloud cover prevail along and east of I-35.

A cold front, Pacific in origin, will move through the region on
Sunday with a strong dynamic upper trough. This trough will
result in strong forcing for ascent and a rapidly eroding cap and
favorable modification of the atmosphere for convection. Surface
based CAPE is likely to increase to a few hundred J/KG over the
eastern half of the region within a strongly sheared environment.
While the parameter space might suggest a low risk of severe
storms in the eastern and southeastern zones, this pattern
typically results in the severe weather being to our east due to
the fast movement of a slow to organize line. Nonetheless, a band
of showers and a few storms are likely along the front as it
plows into the better moisture east of I-35 where the highest PoPs
will be placed. Behind the front, just slightly cooler and drier
weather is expected to prevail Monday into the middle of next
week. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s for highs with lows
in the 30s.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    21  48  30  53  47 /   0   0   0   0  20
Waco                14  44  27  49  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
Paris               15  43  25  49  41 /   0   0   0   0  20
Denton              11  46  26  55  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            13  45  27  52  43 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dallas              20  47  31  53  47 /   0   0   0   0  20
Terrell             14  44  26  49  45 /   0   0   0   5  20
Corsicana           19  44  28  47  45 /   0   0   0   5  30
Temple              18  43  28  48  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
Mineral Wells       14  49  27  59  43 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/14


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.