Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 131646

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1046 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Low stratus is pervasive this morning across most of the forecast
area, save for our far southern counties where sunshine prevails.
This cloud cover is in part due to a resurgence of lower-level
moisture as a diffuse and ill-defined warm front is beginning to
lift back north through the region. Given the degree of cloud
cover at this hour, opted to knock a few degrees of our high
temperatures across roughly the northwestern half of the CWA,
while I`ve bumped them upwards elsewhere. The greatest theta-e
advection will exists west of the I-35 corridor today, and this is
where we`ve held onto a mention of a low (20%) chance for light
showers. Since ascent overall is quite weak today, the potential
for measurable precipitation appears fairly low, but conditions
will regardless remain pretty gloomy for many today.

Rather stout low-level warm advection is forecast to get going
this evening and overnight on the wings of a developing low-level
jet. This additional lift within a deep saturated layer will
support the development of showers across our western and Red
River counties, and this idea is corroborated by recent high-res
guidance. As a result, have gone ahead and added in a mention of
showers across the aformentioned areas tonight. Updated products
have been transmitted.



.AVIATION... /Issued 659 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/
Extensive low clouds will remain across North Central Texas
through the evening with extensive moisture holding below 700 mb.
Ceilings across the Metroplex airports have remained above 3000
ft overnight, but satellite continues to show MVFR ceilings just
entering the southern portions of the Metroplex. We anticipate
that MVFR ceilings will be a temporary condition through about 17Z
with ceilings lifting to around 6000 ft after that. Waco will
remain MVFR through the morning with some temporary IFR through
mid morning. MVFR ceilings will return to all TAF sites after
sunset and remain overnight as southerly low level flow returns.

All airports were in north flow early this morning with generally
light northeast winds between 4 and 8 knots. Wind speeds will
increase slightly after sunrise, but remain below 12 knots. The
wind will veer through the day and become southeast by afternoon.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 345 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/
The weak cold front that moved through North Texas on Sunday was
stalled across Central Texas early this morning. The front will
lift slowly northward through the day as surface high pressure
moves to the east and a surface trough develops across the Central
High Plains. A few showers/sprinkles may accompany the front as
it lifts northward, especially across the western CWA where
isentropic upglide will be the strongest. Any precipitation that
occurs will be light and should dissipate before sunset.

Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than Sunday in most
locations due to extensive cloud cover and lingering weak cold air
advection. Afternoon highs will range from the middle 60s in the
north to the mid 70s in the south. Temperatures tonight will be
fairly mild due to abundant low clouds and a slow return of low
level moisture. Overnight lows will range from the lower 50s in
the northeast to around 60 in the south.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 345 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/
As lee troughing deepens on Tuesday, south winds will steadily
increase. The richest surface moisture will remain offshore, but
dew points may top 60F. The 850mb moisture plume currently setting
up across West Texas will gradually shift eastward, and even with
temperatures reaching the 70s, the depth of the moisture beneath
an elevated inversion will make it difficult for morning stratus
to fully scatter out. Some drizzle or low-topped showers may occur
within this stream of moisture, not unlike the activity currently
ongoing across the Hill Country, but it looks like any measurable
rainfall on Tuesday would confined to south central and
southeastern Oklahoma.

Rain chances will increase a bit on Wednesday as a cold front
approaches and the quality of boundary layer moisture improves.
The cold front may try to slip into our northwestern zones on
Thursday, but it should make little additional progress. A passing
shortwave will keep rain chances in the forecast, but this impulse
will probably be unable to access the capped moisture within the
boundary layer. As this disturbance passes, the postfrontal winds
will back and the shallow cool layer will quickly erode.

The next jet streak will emerge from the Rockies on Friday, and
the resulting lee troughing will yield gusty southerly winds
across North and Central Texas. With westerly 700mb exceeding
50kts across West Texas, a dryline will race eastward,
significantly veering our surface winds Friday afternoon. With
this pattern, the dryline will likely reach our western zones.
Even in the more humid air east of the boundary, the westerly
component in the surface flow should allow temperatures to reach
the 80s.

As the jet streak swings through the Central Plains late Friday,
a cold front will surge down the High Plains, moving through North
and Central Texas Friday night. Markedly cooler weather will
prevail throughout the upcoming weekend, but high temperatures
won`t be much below normal for mid-November. If the surface high
transits the region Saturday night, there could be some frost in
northern and western zones Sunday morning. South winds will return
on Sunday, and a slow warming trend will follow early next week.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  59  74  61  74 /  10  20  10   5  20
Waco                72  59  76  60  75 /  10   5   0   5  20
Paris               63  52  69  56  71 /  10  20  10   5  30
Denton              63  58  75  59  73 /  10  20  10   5  20
McKinney            63  56  73  59  71 /  10  20  10   5  30
Dallas              64  59  74  61  73 /  10  20   5   5  20
Terrell             66  56  74  58  73 /  10  10   5   0  20
Corsicana           67  57  73  58  73 /  10  10   0   0  20
Temple              74  59  76  60  75 /  20   5   0   5  20
Mineral Wells       63  58  75  58  74 /  20  20  10   5  10



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