Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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402
FXUS64 KFWD 190016 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
716 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

As an upper ridge builds into North Texas, typical July weather
will prevail the remainder of the week: VFR conditions with light
southeast winds and fewer CU. Some diurnal showers and storms
will still be possible in the weak easterly flow across South
Texas, but this activity will find it increasingly difficult to
reach Central Texas. No impacts are expected at Waco the next few
days, but isolated afternoon cells could affect traffic to the
south and inbound flights approaching the Cedar Creek cornerpost.

25

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/

Typical summertime conditions continue this afternoon as the
ridge of high pressure across the Southern Plains controls our
sensible weather through the rest of the week and into the
weekend. The upper level ridge, currently centered over Kansas, is
the reason for a large area of heat related watches, advisories
and warnings across the Central Plains and Midwest. As the ridge
expands and shifts southeast the next couple of days, conditions
will only get warmer.

Temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 90s across the
region, with dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s during peak
heating. The highest concentration of moisture will remain to our
southeast, leaving North and Central Texas hot with no
precipitation chances. Latest guidance suggests that heat index
values tomorrow will remain below 105 across the region, with a
few isolated locations reaching 105. For that reason, no Heat
Advisory will be needed for tomorrow at this time. That being
said, if further guidance suggests that dew points will not mix
as low during the afternoon and come in a few degrees higher, that
will have a drastic effect on heat index values. This will
continue to be monitored this evening into tomorrow morning.

The temperature dial will increase by a degree or two Thursday
and Friday with high temperatures between 95 and 99 degrees.
Slightly drier air is expected to mix down each day, decreasing
our dewpoints between the low 60s to low 70s. At this time,
Thursday`s heat index values remain mostly below 105, with a few
locations experiencing 105 degrees. A few more locations will
experience heat indices between 105 to 106 degrees Friday,
especially around urbanized areas. Trends once again will need to
be monitored in case dew points remain higher than currently
forecast. If such is the case, it is possible that heat index
values will exceed 105 degrees over a larger areal extent,
warranting a Heat Advisory.

There will be no relief from the heat this weekend with
temperatures remaining consistent compared to previous days. Many
locations, especially east of Interstate 35 will experience heat
index values between 104-106 degrees. Models continue to suggest a
piece of energy will detach from the main flow along the east
coast and rotate around the upper level high, moving into the
southern states this weekend. This may bring slightly higher rain
chances to our eastern most counties Sunday afternoon. By Monday,
the upper level high will retreat back west with a trough digging
its way through the eastern half of the CONUS. This will bring a
weak cold front into the region increasing our opportunities for
precipitation through Wednesday of next week.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  97  79  98  80 /  10   5   0   0   0
Waco                76  97  77  98  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
Paris               75  94  75  95  76 /  10   5   0   5   0
Denton              76  96  77  97  78 /  10   5   0   0   0
McKinney            76  95  77  96  77 /  10   5   0   0   5
Dallas              80  97  80  98  80 /  10   5   0   0   5
Terrell             76  95  76  96  77 /  10   5   0   0   5
Corsicana           76  95  76  96  77 /  10   5   5   5   5
Temple              75  98  75  99  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       75  96  75  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/58



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