Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 291754
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE REVOLVE AROUND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND GRADUAL WIND SHIFTS AT METROPLEX AND WACO TAF
SITES.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST LOSES
ITS INFLUENCE AND YIELDS TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK
OF CU CAN BE EXPECTED. TOWARDS SUNSET...CU SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL FACILITATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED VFR STRATUS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COMMENCES.

FOR THE WACO TAF...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SCATTERED VFR STRATUS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.


15-BAIN

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING FLOODING TO THE
WESTERN STATES IS CENTERED OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER THIS
MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING IT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILL BE
LEAVING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR CANADA. A SECOND SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS
MORNING...AND BY THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO EL PASO.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN BLOCKING
THE GULF MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL SWITCH BACK SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DEW POINTS.

PRECIP CHANCES START TO CLIMB WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION FORECAST FOR OKLAHOMA MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT COUNTIES IN THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR THE RED RIVER.
I DROPPED THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST BECAUSE
THE DRY LINE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY STILL HAS RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME INITIATING AWAY FROM THE
FRONT DUE TO A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS.
TIME/HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT VERTICAL MOTIONS INCREASE AND THE
CAP BREAKS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. LAPSE RATES ALSO BECOME FAIRLY
STEEP WITH CAPE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
VEERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS MAY
FORM...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL. SINCE THE FRONT WILL NOT STALL AND CONVECTION WILL
NOT BE LIKELY AWAY FROM THE FRONT...ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL WOULD
BE VERY LOCALIZED AND PROBABLY LIMITED TO AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY
FLOOD PRONE. LOW SOIL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A LOT OF PRECIPITATION
TO SOAK IN RATHER THAN RUN OFF. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW
OVERALL AND ONLY SIGNIFICANT WHERE STORMS FORM.

PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARER THE FALL
NORMALS...MID 80S. LOWS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLEAR SKIES
AND A DRIER AIR MASS...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING MOST AREAS WILL
SEE 50S WITH A FEW OF THE COOLER SITES DIPPING INTO THE 40S. THEN
ANOTHER WARM UP OCCURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  71  91  73  94 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              91  66  91  70  92 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             85  65  85  68  90 /   0   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            88  65  89  70  93 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          89  65  90  69  93 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            90  71  90  74  93 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           90  69  90  72  94 /   0   0   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         91  69  90  72  93 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            91  65  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  64  90  68  93 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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