Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261200 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
700 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Morning water vapor imagery shows upper ridging across the eastern
U.S. with moisture streaming north into Texas on the western
periphery. The 12Z sounding still shows some mid level dry air in
place but this will moisten up over the next couple of hours as
suggested by thicker cloud cover to the south spreading into the
region. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop by
early afternoon across a good portion of the region with most of
the activity along and east of the I-35 corridor. While the
activity is expected to remain scattered in nature...there should
be enough coverage for impacts to arrivals/departures. Have made
some minor adjustments to timing based on the latest hi-res
guidance but will continue with the VCSH areawide by 16Z with VCTS
by 18Z. Thunderstorms should diminish in coverage this evening
with loss of daytime heating. Outside of convective activity...VFR
conditions should prevail with SCT/BKN050 conds.

At Waco...similar timing is expected on convective activity
although there is a little more low level moisture already in
place. Some brief MVFR cigs may occur over the next few hours so
will keep the TEMPO in through 15Z.

Dunn

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/
An upper level ridge over the Southeast states is currently in
the process of shifting east into the Mid Atlantic region, as a
shortwave trough moves east across the Northern and Central
Plains. Meanwhile, a mid level trough has developed over East
Texas and the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. The retreating ridge and
developing trough will both be at least partially responsible for
bringing chances of showers and storms across North and Central
Texas for the next several days.

A deep southerly fetch in place around the eastern flank of the
trough has already ushered in high levels of Gulf moisture over
far East Texas and Louisiana. This is the area which saw most of
the convection yesterday. This moist airmass will overspread the
CWA today as the mid level disturbance works its way slowly
westward (all the while the deep moisture fetch remaining in
place). Model guidance indicates that the leading edge of a 2 inch
PWAT airmass should reach the I-35 corridor before noon today. We
should begin to see diurnally driven convection within this moist
region by early afternoon...and the highest POPs will remain
focused across the eastern half of the forecast area today where
the highest moisture levels will reside. Activity will be
scattered in nature, perhaps forming into a few larger clusters
late this afternoon before diminishing this evening. The severe
threat will remain low but locally heavy rain could create some
isolated areas of flooding in the heavier storms.

As the Central Plains trough pushes east over the weekend, the
Southeast/Mid Atlantic ridge will expand back to the west and
strengthen slightly across the northeast third of the region. This
should keep the focus for convection farther south on Saturday and
Sunday, and the highest POPs will be located over our Central
Texas Counties. This is also the area nearest the center of the
mid level trough. This general thinking will continue into early
next week, with the highest POPs shifting west (into our
southwest counties) as the trough continues its slow journey
westward towards the Texas Hill Country.

Large scale ridging aloft will reestablish its dominance over the
central part of the CONUS around the middle of next week, with
some guidance even showing further amplification of the ridge
beyond the extended part of the forecast. We will keep some slight
chance POPs across the area on Wednesday, but widespread
subsidence may keep this activity isolated in nature. Temperatures
should climb to above-normal values mid and late next week with
highs in the mid and perhaps upper 90s expected. Hot and dry
conditions on days 6 and 7 of the forecast period will likely
continue on through Labor Day Weekend.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  74  92  77  92 /  50  20  30  10  30
Waco                90  71  91  74  91 /  50  20  40  10  30
Paris               86  71  90  72  91 /  50  20  30  10  20
Denton              89  71  91  72  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
McKinney            88  72  91  73  92 /  50  20  30  10  20
Dallas              90  75  92  77  92 /  50  20  30  10  30
Terrell             90  73  91  75  92 /  50  20  30  10  30
Corsicana           89  72  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30
Temple              90  70  90  73  89 /  50  20  40  20  40
Mineral Wells       90  70  91  71  91 /  40  20  30  10  30

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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