Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 280259 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
959 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Quiet weather has prevailed across the region this evening with
storms to our north and storms to our south. One last storm in
southern Oklahoma is moving southeast towards Grayson and Fannin
counties, but expect this storm to dissipate before it makes it
to the Red River with the loss of daytime heating and weak inflow
winds. A dry forecast is expected through the night.

Low level stratus clouds already cover roughly the eastern half of
the CWA and are slowly moving west. Pinpointing exact cloud cover
tonight will be difficult but will show cloudy/overcast skies
moving just west of the Interstate 35 corridor, stalling, and
then retreating east closer to daybreak as H925 winds increase
from the southwest. In addition, some fog may occur overnight, in
particular near the western cloud edge, but surface wind speeds
between 5-15 mph should keep widespread dense fog from forming
over saturated grounds.

Temperatures overnight are going to be a mixed bag of slowly
falling, warming and remaining nearly steady. In our western
counties where skies are expected to remain clear for the night,
temperatures will continue a slow fall into the mid to upper 60s.
In the southeast, temperatures are currently cool in the mid to
upper 60s and will remain nearly steady and/or rise overnight a
few degrees. In between these two areas, expect a combination of
nearly steady and warming as the cloud deck eventually invades.



/ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
Convection has erupted again across the central part of the
country in association with an upper level low currently crossing
the Central Plains. Lightning has increased from just north of the
Red River northward into KS and NE beneath the region of cool mid
level temperatures. These storms may create some routing issues
for northbound traffic but should not have any direct impact on
the DFW area. Meanwhile, subsidence has developed in wake of the
slow moving MCS now extending from northern LA to the upper TX
coastal region. This is expected to prohibit convective
development, and the forecast for all TAF locations will remain
free of any mention of thunder through the end of the TAF cycle.

The main concern will be the development of MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings and a potential for fog. Both the HRRR and RAP13 have
indicated patchy fog formation after midnight local while pretty
much all other guidance keeps visibilities in good shape. This
forecast will include a little of both, but neither is expected
to create any major problems. The lowest cigs are expected in the
KACT area where an IFR deck is likely after midnight, while MVFR
cigs and light fog will be forecast for the Metroplex during the
overnight hours. Conditions will improve by mid morning Saturday.
The next chance for convection will be associated with a weak
upper level disturbance late Saturday night, just beyond this set
of forecasts.



Dry and subsident air will continue to filter into the region
tonight and will keep all rain and thunderstorms across East Texas
and Louisiana. Therefore...we will cancel the Flash Flood watch
that is currently in affect across the southern portions of the
forecast area.

Even through the dryline will approach the western zones late
this afternoon/early this evening we feel that storms will have a
tough time developing. If an isolated storm were to form on the
dryline it would most likely occur near the Red River, closest to
the departing upper low.

Saturday morning will be mild and quiet with lows in the upper
60s and lower 70s. A few showers and storms may develop Saturday
afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave approaching from West
Texas brings increasing large scale lift and mid level moisture.
This shortwave should lift out of the region by Sunday morning but
another disturbance will approach from the west Sunday afternoon.
This second shortwave will be stronger and will most likely result
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Sunday. Better
thunderstorm chances will arrive Sunday night/Monday morning when
a complex of storms from West Texas translates across the region.
It appears that the best chance of storms Sunday night and Monday
will be north of the Interstate 20 corridor.

There will be a decrease in thunderstorm chances behind the
departing complex of storms Monday afternoon/evening.
However, storm chances will quickly return Tuesday in response to
increasing large scale forcing for ascent associated with a slow
moving upper low moving out of the Desert Southwest. Energy from
this system, coupled with abundant low level moisture, will
result in thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday. The best
storm chances will be during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame
when a late season cold front moves through the region. We have
left some low pops in the forecast for next Friday due to timing
uncertainties with the upper system and cold front.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  89  72  86  70 /  10  20  20  20  30
Waco                69  89  71  86  69 /  10  20  20  20  30
Paris               64  86  69  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  30
Denton              68  88  69  86  68 /  10  10  20  20  30
McKinney            68  88  70  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  30
Dallas              71  90  72  87  71 /  10  20  20  20  30
Terrell             68  88  71  86  69 /  10  20  20  20  30
Corsicana           69  88  71  86  70 /  10  20  20  20  30
Temple              67  88  71  84  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
Mineral Wells       66  89  69  85  68 /  10  10  20  20  30


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