Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 172208
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
408 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Afternoon satellite imagery shows extensive cloud cover mainly
across east Texas into Louisiana associated with a shortwave
trough moving through the Southern Plains. There are a few high
based cumulus clouds noted over the last hour across North Texas.
These are associated with some very shallow moisture in the
presence of forcing for ascent. It appears the moisture will be
too sparse for any high based convection to develop through the
remainder of the afternoon...although some virga is likely to be
seen.

Tonight will feature some low/mid level drying as the main
shortwave moves to the east of the area...which should lead to
mostly clear skies across the southwestern part of the CWA.
Our eastern and northern counties will likely remain cloudy later
tonight into early Saturday as southerly winds pull in some Gulf
moisture on the east side of a developing surface low. This low is
expected to be near Wichita Falls early Saturday morning. Outside
of some patchy drizzle in our northeast counties late tonight and
early Saturday...skies should remain precipitation free during
this time. The southerly flow will keep temperatures warm tonight
with lows only falling into the mid 50s. Areas to the southeast
where cloud cover is minimal will fall into the mid 40s.

A much stronger upper disturbance will be digging into northwest
Mexico late tomorrow. This will be the system that will bring rain
and thunderstorm chances to North Texas Sunday into Monday. Prior
to this system arriving...brief shortwave ridging will pass
overhead during the day tomorrow. This should result in partly
cloudy skies with temperatures warming into the mid/upper 70s
across most of the region tomorrow. Temperatures may linger in the
60s across the northeast counties where more extensive cloud cover
persists.

As we head into Sunday...stronger forcing for ascent will
overspread much of the Southern Plains ahead of the strong upper
low. Deep southerly flow will become established by midday and
allow a little more expansive warm sector to become developed.
This warm sector is likely to spread north through the afternoon
hours. A dryline is expected to move east through midday and will
likely be near our western counties by early afternoon. With the
approach of the upper trough...expect a rather stout capping
inversion to lift and scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop by afternoon. Latest guidance suggests that the atmosphere
will become moderately unstable with mixed layer CAPE around
1200 j/kg along with 50 kt of deep layer shear. The shear profile
is nearly unidirectional although some localized backing of the
low level flow will be possible during the mid afternoon hours
near the effective warm front. Steep lapse rates and modest low
level flow will primarily support a hail and damaging wind threat
although an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. The severe
threat will persist into the evening hours before loss of heating
erodes surface based instability.

Later Sunday night...the convective area should become more
organized into a linear structure and will likely transition into
more of a heavy rainfall threat with deep moist southerly flow
feeding into the system. The overall line should remain
progressive to the east...although training echoes within the line
could produce some localized heavy rainfall amounts. At this
time...we think the heaviest rainfall will occur east of I-35 late
Sunday night into early Monday. Precipitation should end from west
to east early on Monday.

The remainder of the forecast will be dry as ridging builds in
behind the main system. Another fast moving system will swing
through the Plains late week...although moisture appears to be too
limited for precipitation at this time.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/
VFR this afternoon/evening. IFR ceilings likely Saturday morning.
South flow throughout.

An upper low over North Texas will move over the Ouachitas early
Saturday morning. Its lift has produced some showers across East
Texas, but the column remains too dry along the I-35 corridor
where any precipitation should remain as virga. Passing mid clouds
will clutter the skies this afternoon, but as mid-level dry air
begins to filter in on the backside of the departing low, sunshine
will become more abundant. Breezy south winds will steadily return
Gulf moisture to the region, and some cumulus clouds may appear
before nightfall.

As a low-level jet ensues tonight, stratus will surge into East
Texas. The I-35 corridor may be near the western periphery of this
deck as an approaching surface low veers the winds and initiates
dry advection to our west. For now, will maintain MVFR-becoming-
IFR ceilings, but there may be a sharp western edge near FTW/AFW.
As the dry advection spreads east, the thin layer of stratus will
be shunted to the northeast. Central Texas will likely become VFR
before Metroplex TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail until the
next stratus intrusion Sunday morning.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  76  57  76  61 /   5   5   5  50  80
Waco                55  81  58  76  59 /   5   0  10  50  80
Paris               52  68  53  76  60 /  10  10   0  10  80
Denton              53  72  54  74  58 /   5   5   0  50  80
McKinney            54  71  54  76  60 /   5  10   0  30  80
Dallas              56  76  58  76  61 /   5   5   5  40  80
Terrell             54  74  57  78  61 /  10   5   5  30  80
Corsicana           56  77  59  79  61 /  10   5   5  40  80
Temple              54  81  59  75  59 /   5   0  10  50  80
Mineral Wells       49  77  53  74  56 /   0   0   5  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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