Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 200838
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
338 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
A cold front that extended just southeast of a Bonham to DFW to
Comanche line as of 3 AM will continue to move southeast today.
This front will move through the southeastern zones slightly
after daybreak. Showers and thunderstorms will end from northwest
to southeast across most of the forecast area this morning...
though some activity may continue into early afternoon southeast
of a Canton to Lampasas line. A few storms through this morning
may produce wind gusts to 50 mph and some small hail. North winds
will increase to 10 to 20 mph behind the front this morning and
some gusts over 25 mph will be possible through the afternoon.
Highs will be mostly in the 70s.
The northerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph tonight. With
clear skies and drier air having filtered into the region, lows
will range from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
The surface ridge that builds in behind the cold front will move
across North Texas during the day Friday allowing light southerly
winds to return Friday night. Lows Friday night will range from
the mid 40s to lower 50s.
An upper level ridge will build eastward across Texas in the wake
of our current shortwave. This ridge will shift to our east by
late Sunday. Warmer temperatures are expected starting on Saturday
and continue into the early part of next week. An upper level
disturbance is expected to approach and then move across Texas
Monday and Tuesday. At this time, it looks like we`ll see an
increase in cloud cover but am not too confident on rainfall. For
now have just placed 10 percent POPs with no rain mentioned for
the Monday-Tuesday period. A shortwave in the northern branch will
move across the northern and central plains Wednesday. At this
time, it looks like the main lift associated with this system will
be well to our north and without any type of surface convergence,
do not expect any rain with this system either.
/ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/
06 UTC TAF Cycle
Concerns---Main concern continues to be timing of convection and
FROPA. Otherwise, VFR should prevail with breezy north winds.
For the Metroplex TAF sites---Convection continues to move towards
the east and southeast from near DYX to 0F2. There is a relative
minimum in convection near RPH at this time. In general,
convection has not been nearly as impressive as initially thought
and I`ve spent the last hour or so contemplating whether or not to
remove TS all together. The HRRR has done a pretty fair job with
the overall placement of convection this evening and a majority of
the convective forecast relies on this solution. The current
Metroplex TAFs reflect a wind shift to the northwest associated
with the leading edge outflow/cold front to the northwest per
upstream observations. This boundary should reach Metroplex TAF
sites around 07 UTC. Convection atop the shallow frontal slope has
struggled some, but a re-invigoration of activity is expected and
as a result, I`ll continue to TEMPO TS from 08 to 11 UTC.
North winds will increase in the wake of the front/convection due
to good surface pressure rises. The strong north winds should
result in good dry/cold air advection and this is expected to
limit the potential for MVFR post-frontal stratus. Moreover,
upstream observations across OK/TX panhandle reveal VFR ceilings
(outside of convection) and this further supports a mainly VFR
TAF. Clearing, heating at the surface and good cold air advection
aloft should steepen low level lapse rates. This will foster good
momentum transfer resulting in gusty north winds with gusts to
near 25 knots. Skies should clear through the day and winds will
subside towards sunset Thursday.
For the Waco TAF site---VFR will prevail with a threat for
convection early Thursday morning. Hi-res guidance suggests that
the threat for convection impacting the terminal directly may be a
little lower than previously thought. As a result, I`ll carry VCTS
as opposed to TEMPO TS this morning. Breezy north winds, but VFR
is expected in the wake of the front.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 53 72 50 77 / 50 0 0 0 0
Waco 79 49 75 45 79 / 50 0 0 0 0
Paris 75 49 72 46 76 / 50 0 0 0 0
Denton 74 47 71 44 76 / 40 0 0 0 0
McKinney 74 50 71 44 76 / 50 0 0 0 0
Dallas 75 53 74 52 78 / 50 0 0 0 0
Terrell 75 51 73 45 77 / 60 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 75 52 74 49 79 / 60 0 0 0 0
Temple 77 51 76 45 79 / 50 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 47 72 44 79 / 30 0 0 0 0