Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 250847
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
347 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT BROUGHT US OUR LATEST STRETCH OF HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TOMORROW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY WHICH
MEANS HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO LOW
TEMPS IN NON-URBAN AREAS WILL COOL OFF A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT
COMPLIMENTS OF THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE WEAK TUTT LOW THAT WE HAVE
BEEN TRACKING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. MEANWHILE A NON-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TUTT AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK...WITH THE
UPPER TUTT AXIS CROSSING OUR CWA TUESDAY AND CAUSING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SURGE TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE LIFT/MOISTURE ARE GREATER. HOWEVER WILL MENTION
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS THERE IS SOME SPATTERING OF QPF FROM SEVERAL MODELS
THERE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND WE WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
IN HIGH TEMPS AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DECREASE FROM EAST TO WEST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL HANG OUT IN THE WESTERN GULF INTO THURSDAY...
AND WHILE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS NOT LIKELY...IT
WILL TEND TO CONSOLIDATE THE BETTER MOISTURE/CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND SOUTH TEXAS. NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE DRY ADVECTION
DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND THIS
CYCLONE...AND THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT. WILL RETAIN A
MENTION OF AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WORDED
FORECAST AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUCH ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE DIMINISHES EVEN MORE INTO
THURSDAY...AND THUS WILL SHOW A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATERS STAY ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH
THE GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FORTUNATELY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT...GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND SPEED OF
A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAW THE RICH
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THIS HIGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. LIFT
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG FOR THE TIME OF THE
YEAR...AND SHEAR MAY BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL
CONVECTIVE MODES WITH A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THESE POPS WILL
PROBABLY BE RAISED FURTHER AS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH INCREASES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. TEMPS REBOUND ONLY
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS REMAIN
DEPRESSED IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1149 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ONLY SLOWLY
WEAKENS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
SCT-BKN300. SOME CUMULUS...SCT050-060...WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT 04Z MONDAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 09Z...AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY 14Z. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 20Z.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 101  78  99  78  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
WACO, TX             101  75  99  74  98 /   0   5  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             97  75  95  73  95 /   0   5  20  20  10
DENTON, TX           100  75  98  74  97 /   0   0  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          99  75  97  74  96 /   0   0  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX           100  80  99  79  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX          100  77  98  75  97 /   0   5  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX        100  76  98  75  97 /   5   5  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX           100  74  99  73  98 /   0   5  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX    102  74 100  73  98 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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