Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 140831
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017


.SHORT TERM...
An upper level ridge will bring much warmer weather to North and
Central Texas for the next few days. High temperatures well into
the 90s are expected this afternoon with a few spots across the
western zones possibly reaching 100. Meanwhile, an upper trough
will deepen across the western CONUS while a surface trough
develops in lee of the Rockies, leading to the return of south to
southeast surface winds across North and Central Texas. Wind
speeds remain light for the time being but will increase to 10 to
15 MPH later today as the gradient tightens. The hot and breezy
conditions will create elevated fire danger across the western-
most counties this afternoon, where the highest temps and lowest
RH values are expected. Conditions will improve quickly around
sunset as temperatures fall and winds decrease. Otherwise, the
return flow will lead to warmer weather overnight and stratus
intrusion across the southern half of the region Friday morning.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Friday Through Next Week/

Hot, breezy, and dry weather is expected to continue through
Saturday. An upper ridge is expected to expand across North and
Central Texas, in wake of the lingering weak upper trough over
East Texas slowly dampening and lifting northeast away from the
region. Our area will continue to see the eastern periphery of the
925mb-850mb thermal ridge anchored over especially our central and
western counties through the period. The richest Gulf of Mexico
moisture flux with surface dew points between 65 and 70 degrees
will be confined generally east of U.S. 281, as PWAT values
increase to between 1-1.5". Areas west of U.S. 281 may need to be
monitored each day for elevated fire danger issues with the hotter
temperatures and slightly lower afternoon humidity, and slow-
increasing ERC values. That said, there will be some deep mixing
with strong southerly winds 15 to 20 mph each afternoon, as a
positively tilted longwave trough continues organizing over the
Western CONUS with surface pressure falls off the lee of the
Rockies. Heat index values will remain just below 100 degrees with
highs mostly in the lower-mid 90s across the area. The gusty south
winds should help in keeping conditions from becoming overly
oppressive through this weekend.

As the upper ridge axis shifts just east and southeast of our
area, there are subtle signs of a weak shortwave disturbance
rotating northeast out of Mexico on Sunday. This disturbance may
aid in some low convective development along a seabreeze boundary
moving toward the far southeast counties Sunday afternoon and
early evening. With warm mid level temperatures aloft, we do not
expect any more than general thunderstorms and nothing strong or
severe. The rest of the area should remain dry, breezy, and hot
due to the upper ridge anchored over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico
and Lower Mississippi Valley through the first half of next week.
That said, there are some broad discrepancies between the GFS/
Canadian models and the Euro model on the Western CONUS trough and
nearby upper high. The GFS is much more aggressive on deepening
and broadening the Western CONUS upper trough eastward across the
Central and Southern High Plains, while, the Euro maintains a
broad upper ridge over much of Texas, with most systems remaining
shunted just west and north of the area.

The Canadian resides in the middle of the GFS/Euro solutions and I
will lean toward a conservative blend of it and the WPC drier
solutions beyond Day 3. I cannot rule out low convective chances
diurnally each day below the elevated mixed layer or cap expected
over the top of us. Whether the cap gets lifted, moistened, and
elevated enough for spotty diurnal convection is anyone`s guess at
this point. If the Euro pans out, we`ll be breezy, hot, and dry
and generally rain-free. If the GFS pans out, then better chances
for storms and rain will occur, especially across the northwest
half of the CWA where the cap would be the weakest and large-scale
lift the most pronounced. Either way, mid level lapse rates look
benign and don`t see much of a severe weather threat, though
strong heating and decent surface-based instability below cloud
base would indicate a potential for gusty winds with stronger
storms.

Both high and low temperatures this weekend into next week will
be well above climatological normals (lows in the mid 60s--highs
mid- upper 80s) for late September. Instead, it appears the
typical last gasp of Summer we tend to see in later September will
hang around. Lows will be in the low- mid 70s with highs in the
90s through next week.

05/

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1127 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017/
Southeast to south winds will occur at the area TAF sites through
the forecast period. Wind speeds will increase a bit during the
day on Thursday, with a few gusts to around 20 kts possible during
the afternoon.

The onset of southerly flow across the region heralds the return
of Gulf moisture, which will continue to spread northward across
the area tonight. This increased moisture may result in some
filaments of low cloud cover materializing across the Hill Country
late tonight/Thursday morning. The latest runs of the HRRR,
however, seem a bit too aggressive with low cigs passing over the
Waco terminal towards daybreak. Since upstream dewpoints don`t
really seem to support this potential for MVFR/IFR cigs, and the
potential window for any impacts looks very brief (perhaps around
13-15z), have opted to refrain from introducing ceilings at this
juncture.

More copious moisture looks to return Thursday night and into
Friday morning, when MVFR cigs at Waco (perhaps even towards the
eastern Metroplex sites) look to be more of a possibility.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  73  94  75  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                95  72  95  71  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               91  67  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              95  72  94  72  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            94  71  93  71  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              95  73  94  75  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             94  69  93  69  92 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           94  71  93  72  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              94  71  94  70  92 /   0   0   0   5  10
Mineral Wells       97  70  95  71  94 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/30



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