Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 240819
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
CONCERNS...PERIODS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A MCV /MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ SOUTHWEST OF KACT AT 05Z...
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THUS HAVE KEPT TAFS GENERALLY MVFR WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 10Z....AND VCTS THROUGH 14Z. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IS DIFFICULT...SOME HAVE
PLACED VCSH IN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
BACK TO MVFR BY 04Z.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  68  84  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
WACO, TX              79  69  80  67  86 /  80  40  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  67  82  65  82 /  90  50  60  50  20
DENTON, TX            77  66  84  66  84 /  80  40  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  84  66  83 /  80  50  60  50  20
DALLAS, TX            79  68  85  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         78  70  83  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  70  30  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  60  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.