Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 250910
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
410 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016
Although the mean flow is nearly parallel to the quasi-linear MCS
that reached our northwestern zones at nightfall, it has continued
to make gradual progress eastward overnight. This has been made
possible by the advancing outflow, the gusty winds early this
morning confirming that the updrafts have maintained access to the
juicy surface parcels downstream. But this steadily stabilizing
nocturnal air has been unable to maintain the complex`s strength
as its associated forcing aloft has moved into Oklahoma. Despite
the eastward progress of the activity, the wind profiles continue
to promote training echoes. The impressive rainfall totals were
west of our area on Saturday, but many locations in our northwest
zones have received at least an inch of rain overnight. Antelope
(Jack County) tallied more than 3 inches.
The next impulse will take a similar track to its predecessor,
but its associated convection is also deviating eastward toward
the richer moisture. These showers and storms will impact our
southwestern zones early this morning with some gusty winds, but
they too will wane as the upper forcing leaves them behind.
Although there will be heavy rain, the progressive nature of the
activity should limit its duration. Subsequent disturbances, one
currently entering the Edwards Plateau and another upstream in
Mexico, will also take northerly treks, keeping the better forcing
to our west today. However, there will still be rounds of showers
and storms that affect areas mainly west of the I-35 corridor.
While flooding issues could result from training activity,
particularly if this occurs in areas that have already seen
wetting rains, the main concerns will be to our west. There will
also be some diurnally driven activity east of the better
organized convection, but lingering subsidence in East Texas
should limit its eastward extent.
The ongoing activity is disrupting the surface wind field, and
additional convection will continue do so throughout the day.
Rain-cooled air well in advance of a cold front will belie its
position, which is currently in the Texas Panhandle. The true
boundary will take much of the day to reach our northwestern
zones. With the upper forcing driving the bulk of the convection
in vicinity of the front, we are unlikely to see a linear complex
coincident with the surface boundary, and showers and storms will
persist after its passage. However, as the dry postfrontal layer
deepens, the activity will eventually end from northeast to
southwest, but it may be until the daylight hours Monday before
Lingering clouds and steady north winds Monday will likely keep
afternoon temperatures in the 70s along and west of the I-35
corridor. Sunshine will emerge Tuesday, but with many locations
starting the day in the 50s and lower 60s, high temperatures may
be similar. The 80s will return Wednesday, but the moisture will
not. Seasonal temperatures with humidity more befitting of autumn
will prevail into the opening weekend of October.
/ISSUED 1153 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/
Complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to make slow east
progress tonight with an outflow boundary now surging to the east.
We should see a general eastward progression of the overall line
of thunderstorms through the overnight hours. Ahead of the
line...isolated convection will still be possible but VFR
conditions will generally prevail for the next few hours. Farther
south at Waco...MVFR cigs are expected to develop and spread north
ahead of the main precipitation areas. Have also included a few
hours of tempo IFR cigs at Waco around sunrise.
For the Metroplex sites...have continued with the VCTS by 10Z and
have included a tempo for TSRA from 11-15Z based on the eastward
progression of the line. Convection should weaken as the outflow
gets ahead of the line but still think there will enough around to
include it in the latest forecast. Otherwise...the cold front will
approach from the north during the afternoon hours and will show a
wind shift by 22Z. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will continue through the day across all of North and Central TX.
After the frontal passage...showers appear likely well into the
nighttime hours Sunday night.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 64 76 61 80 / 70 60 40 10 10
Waco 87 67 78 60 79 / 50 70 40 20 10
Paris 89 65 79 59 80 / 40 40 30 10 5
Denton 85 63 75 55 79 / 70 60 40 10 5
McKinney 87 65 79 57 80 / 60 50 30 10 10
Dallas 87 66 77 63 80 / 60 60 40 10 10
Terrell 89 67 81 60 81 / 40 50 30 10 10
Corsicana 88 68 81 62 80 / 40 60 30 20 10
Temple 86 66 77 60 78 / 50 70 40 20 10
Mineral Wells 82 62 71 56 77 / 80 70 50 10 10