Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 021134
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
634 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 AFTER
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIXING...WITH THE PREDOMINANT DIRECTION
BEING SSW...AND WE WILL SHOW THE INCREASE AT 15Z IN THE MORNING
FORECASTS. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX
FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WE WILL INTRODUCE VCSH AT 03/13Z IN THE
EXTENDED DFW TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATER TRENDS AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS A BIT LONGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
WEST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM AN MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ACROSS THE
OZARKS WILL HELP EASE A STATIONARY FRONT IN KS DOWN INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OK. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE INITIATION FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID EVENING...A
30-40 KT LLJ WILL FEED INTO STORMS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
CONGEAL ACTIVITY INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR MCS. MODEST
SSE STEERING CURRENTS WILL MOVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
JUST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY HERE IN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW THIS FIRST MCS
CREATES WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA
SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR NE COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REFORM NORTH OF I-20 OR WHERE
ANY OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST MCS SETTLES IN...WHICH COULD BE
POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER
MCS LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND MOVE SE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON JULY
4TH WILL RE-IGNITE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEREVER THE MAIN
OUTFLOW SETS UP WITH MORE OF THE SAME THREATS FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN LATER ON SUNDAY
FOR SOME LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BEFORE THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS DAMPENING WITH RIDGING ALOFT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE FAR NW COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED MON/TUES IF THE RIDGE DOESN/T ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MUCH AS
I/M EXPECTING. BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL
UPPER HIGH DOES STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FOR SEASONABLY
HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS USUALLY EXPECTED IN EARLY JULY. WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S...THOUGH AFTER HEAT INDICES NEXT
WEEK COULD CREEP OVER 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE HUMID
AREAS EAST OF ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  93  76  91 /   5  20  40  20  30
WACO, TX              93  74  94  74  92 /   0   5   5   0  20
PARIS, TX             91  72  87  72  87 /  10  50  70  50  50
DENTON, TX            94  75  93  74  90 /   5  20  40  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  91  73  89 /   5  20  50  30  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  77  92 /   5  20  40  20  30
TERRELL, TX           94  74  92  74  91 /   5  10  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  93  74  91 /   5   5  20   5  30
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  93  73  92 /   5   5   5   0  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  72  94  73  93 /   5  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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