Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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208
FXUS64 KFWD 152132
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
332 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...
/Rest of Today and Tonight/

Partly to mostly sunny conditions prevail this afternoon across
the region as morning low cloud cover has been shunted mainly
along and east of the I-35 corridor. High cloud cover has cut into
insolation just a bit, but temperatures have still responded and
have warmed into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures will be
pretty mild overnight across the southeastern third of our
forecast area where dense low cloud cover will re-develop, keeping
lows around 60. Farther to the north and west, a cold front will
push south of the Red River around 3-4 AM which will force
temperatures down into the 40s by daybreak. Lift and convergence
ahead of the incoming front looks pretty weak, so we`ll only
indicate a 20% chance of light showers across the northern half
of the CWA late tonight and early Friday morning.

Carlaw

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Friday through Next Week/

By daybreak Friday, the cold front will already be charging
through the area with north winds of 20-25 mph behind it.
Initially, temperatures will cool behind the front, but as we
reach the afternoon hours, temperatures are expected to remain
closer to steady in the upper 40s and 50s. Some light rain is
possible along and east of I-35 as the front moves through. During
the afternoon hours, we may begin to see a little bit of light
rain north of Interstate 20 as the main post-frontal ascent
encroaches from the west. Rain chances increase Friday night into
Saturday.

Starting Friday night, larger scale ascent is expected to spread
across the area as an upper level trough moves through the Plains.
The best lift will be across the northern half of the region
(closer to the location of the upper level trough), but an
expansive rain shield is expected to spread across the region from
west to east Friday night into Saturday. Rain production will be
aided by warm air advection above the cooler surface layer.
Widespread wetting rains are expected as the large area of rain
traverses the region; ending from northwest to southeast Saturday
afternoon as a secondary weak surface front and drier air in the
mid levels works its way south on the heels of the trough passing
to our north. Have maintained high rain chances Friday night
through Saturday, and the highest rainfall totals are generally
along and north of Interstate 20. Forecast soundings show
saturated profiles with nearly no instability. Although an
isolated rumble of thunder is possible, the low potential does not
warrant a mention of thunder at this time.

The 850 mb front will stall across the region Saturday night, and
then rapidly return north that night and into Sunday morning in
response to another developing upper level trough on the West
Coast. The surface front will reach the GOM but will not scour out
the moisture source, and low level moisture is expected to return
north on Sunday. Warm air and isentropic lift on Sunday are
expected to contribute to damp and cool conditions from persistent
cloud cover and periods of light rain. For Sunday, have maintained
a chance for showers across the region and sided with the cooler
guidance, having highs only in the 60s.

The lift will continue across the region into Monday as the upper
level trough moves east-southeast towards North Texas. A dryline
will sharpen to our west on Monday and may move into our western
counties that afternoon. The question on Monday is the strength of
the cap. Forecast soundings indicate instability will be in place
(above the cap) and moisture will be sufficient with dewpoints in
the 50s and 60s. However, as indicated on the GFS soundings,
southwest winds above the surface should aid in the development of
a decent cap across the region. Experience tells me, based on the
latest forecast position of the upper level trough, the trough
may be too far west on Monday to help erode the cap for surface
based severe storms along the dryline. However, this potential is
not out of the realm of possibility, and we will continue to
closely monitor Monday`s severe storm threat. East of the dryline,
light rain and/or streamer showers may occur underneath the cap
during the day, and have maintained chance PoPs.

Our next cold front will come barreling through on Tuesday as the
upper level trough begins to cross into the Plains. The models
continue to develop copious amounts of rain with this system
supporting another chance for decent wetting rains. Depending on
the timing of the front, another severe weather threat may exist
on Tuesday. Currently, the front arrives in the morning hours, and
any severe weather threat may be in our south and southeastern
counties in the afternoon...but again, this is largely
contingent upon the speed of the front.

Wednesday and Thursday will likely be cool days, but another
rapid recovery is expected by the weekend as another trough
develops along the West Coast.

JLDunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018/
/18z TAFs/

The back edge of the stratus deck with bases between FL015-030
continues to make rapid eastward progress at this hour and will be
clearing the western Metroplex sites in short order. Extended the
high-end MVFR cigs at KDAL/KGKY just a bit, but they too will
become VFR early this afternoon with SCT-BKN high cloud cover.
Similar trends are anticipated at Waco.

The next feature of interest will be the next strong cold front,
which is beginning to dive southward across Kansas. The front will
pick up forward speed tonight and should arrive in the Metroplex
somewhere around 12z, give or take an hour or so, and towards 15z
at Waco. A sharp north wind shift with strong and gusty winds is
anticipated as the front passes. Ahead of the front tonight,
moisture will attempt to slosh back northwestward. Just how far
north and west this moisture returns is in question, but it seems
like a decent bet that KDAL/KGKY will see low-MVFR cigs return
before the front passes. At Waco, a period of IFR cigs is not out
of the question overnight, but continued strong mixing with 35-40
kt flow just off the surface may help keep cigs just a bit higher.

As the frontal inversion quickly deepens, any cloud bases will
rise above FL020 Friday morning. Most statistical guidance
insists that VFR conditions will develop behind the front, while
forecast soundings reveal fairly deep saturation occurring
immediately above the inversion. With the normally drier GFS also
indicating this re-saturation, took a more pessimistic approach
to the TAFs, indicating BKN025 conditions through the morning
hours in the Metroplex. The chances for showers with this front
appear too low to warrant a VCSH mention at this time.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  53  43  56  43 /  20  20  90  90  10
Waco                62  62  44  53  45 /  10  20  70  80  30
Paris               50  53  41  51  40 /  20  30  80  90  20
Denton              50  52  39  56  40 /  20  20  90  90  10
McKinney            50  52  41  54  40 /  20  20  90  90  10
Dallas              52  53  43  55  44 /  20  20  90  90  10
Terrell             52  56  44  53  41 /  20  20  80  90  20
Corsicana           59  60  46  52  45 /  10  20  70  80  30
Temple              62  62  45  53  46 /  10  20  60  70  40
Mineral Wells       51  52  38  59  40 /  20  10  90  90  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/90



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