Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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253
FXUS64 KFWD 231703
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1203 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017


.AVIATION...
IFR CIGs across Central Texas have eroded due to boundary layer
mixing, and given way to scattered cumulus. VFR conditions can be
expected for the rest of the afternoon, evening and most of the
overnight hours. One exception will be over Central Texas where
stratus is likely to invade once again by daybreak tomorrow, and
have included MVFR conditions for KACT at 12Z Sunday. Otherwise,
isolated showers are possible later this afternoon but should
remain east of area TAF sites.


30

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 1002 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/
North and Central Texas remains on the southwest edge of an upper
level ridge, which extends all the way to the Great Lakes. A weak
inverted trough continues trudge slowly west along the Gulf Coast
and may provide enough lift for isolated convection across the
eastern portions of the forecast area. Isolated showers have been
added to areas generally along and east of I-35/35E for this
afternoon with POPs remaining below 20 percent. Otherwise, low
clouds across the southern counties should scatter out by midday.

30

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 317 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

North Texas will remain sandwiched between a deep upper trough
over the western U.S. and a weaker trough over the southeastern
U.S. through tonight. This will mean quiet weather for most of us
with continued above normal temperatures.

Regional satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across North
Texas with the exception of some lower clouds in the Hill Country.
Cloud cover is a little less extensive this morning given that
some drier air has moved in from the east and the low level jet is
oriented more southeasterly. Most low clouds should primarily
affect our far southwestern counties through the morning.

Limited moisture and a lack of any appreciable forcing mechanism
should help limit convective chances this afternoon across the
area. We`ll keep PoPs generally at 10% or less across the area.
Temperatures will be warm again with highs in the lower 90s
areawide, although the east-southeast flow through 700 mb should
keep things from getting too warm. No precipitation is expected
tonight although we may begin to see an increase in mid level
cloud cover spreading in from west Texas.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 317 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/
/Sunday Onward/

The main focus through the extended portion of the forecast is
the cold front and associated rain chances through the middle
portion of next week. Where there is still considerable
disagreement among model guidance with this system, the general
trends continue to favor areas west of I-35 for the highest rain
chances, while locations to the east could remain drier. With
limited instability in place, the severe weather threat is
expected to remain low throughout this time with locally heavy
rainfall being the main concern. Based on some trends in guidance,
have made some slight decreases to PoPs for reasons discussed
below.

Another warm and mostly dry day is expected on Sunday as an upper
ridge remains overhead. However, the ridge will begin to get
squashed between the large upper trough positioned across the
western US and a weaker upper low drifting across the southeast
US. As the ridge begins to weaken, some subtle ascent could
prompt a couple afternoon showers across our northeastern
counties, although this potential is not high enough to include a
mention in the worded forecast right now. Dewpoints should mix
out into the mid or low 60s which will keep heat index values
below 100F despite 90+ degree temperatures.

The western trough will continue to deepen and slowly shift east
to begin the week. As numerous disturbances pivot though the
large-scale trough, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
will develop across West TX. Most of the forcing is expected to
remain west of our forecast area through Monday, although it`s
possible that a couple storms could begin approaching our western
counties by late in the day. The trough`s associated cold front
will also be making very slow southeastward progress during this
time, but without any feature to shove it south, it will remain
northwest of our area through the early portion of the week.

Rain chances will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday as the front
finally begins to move into North TX. However, most of the large
scale ascent associated with the upper trough should stay to our
northwest. Our rain chances will increase primarily due to the
ascent associated with the approaching frontal zone, and not
necessarily due to an increase in dynamic forcing aloft. This has
me questioning the widespread QPF that the GFS has been
generating, and the slightly drier ECMWF solution is looking more
reasonable at this time. This will also be the story on Wednesday
as both models eject a more potent disturbance north of our area
while shifting the primary trough axis farther west. As this
occurs, some upper ridging should actually be occurring overhead
above the stalled frontal zone with a 590dam ridge becoming
centered across southeast TX. This doesn`t bode well for rain
chances east of I-35 where forcing for ascent will largely be
absent aside from the limited convergence along the front.
Throughout this time, rain chances will be highest the farther
west your location, and the highest rain totals through the
midweek time frame should be west of our forecast area. The severe
weather threat will also be low due to meager instability from
poor lapse rates through the mid levels.

The stalled front will slowly be drifting south Wednesday night and
Thursday and cooler/drier air begins filtering in behind it. Rain
chances will linger across most of the area through Thursday
night before a secondary cold front punches southward through the
Plains. This front should deliver some substantially drier air
which will scour out the moisture all the way to the Gulf on
Friday, leaving us cooler and drier to begin the weekend. Overall,
it looks like a very pleasant early fall weekend could be in
store with temperatures in the 70s and low 80s with low humidity.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  74  94  74  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
Waco                92  71  93  70  92 /  10   5  10  10  10
Paris               90  71  89  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
Denton              91  71  91  70  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
McKinney            90  72  90  71  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
Dallas              92  75  94  75  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
Terrell             90  72  92  70  92 /  10   5   5   5   5
Corsicana           91  72  92  71  92 /  10   5   5   5   5
Temple              90  71  90  70  91 /  10   5  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       90  70  91  71  89 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/58



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