Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 221834 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1234 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REGIONS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW. CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION VARY
FROM LIFR TO VFR. THE TAF AIRPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
CATEGORY CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT THEM TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL IN LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THE TAFS TO BE ENCASED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS BY 20-21Z. THE STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING. WITHIN THE STORMS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THE RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...A LOW CIG AND FOG EVENT WILL
LIKELY TRANSPIRE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. THERE IS A
MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OVERNIGHT EVENT AND ANTICIPATE
CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY IS IF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS WILL BE
TO VSBY OR CIGS ALONE OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FOR NOW...WILL
SHOW A COMBINATION OF BOTH RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS BUT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND ISSUES ON NORTH-
SOUTH RUNWAYS FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OR NEAR SUNSET.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES...TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS LOOK GOOD WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ON IT/S
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FROM THE BIG BEND COUNTRY OF WEST TEXAS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SOME MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS.

IT DOES APPEAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES COULD SEE
PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THIS
TO THE UPDATE. HOWEVER...IF WINDS STAY UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST
THEN FOG WOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME...AREA RADARS
SHOW A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 40KT LLJ IS LOCATED ALONG WITH A MAXIMUM OF 850-700MB
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SHOW THAT LIFTING PARCELS FROM AROUND 800MB YIELDS
ABOUT 700J/KG OF CAPE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800MB WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...GUSTY WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40MPH.

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER TODAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW DOES ALSO LIMIT OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TIED CLOSELY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS DOES/NT MEAN THAT WE ARE COMPLETELY OFF THE HOOK
HOWEVER AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. POCKETS OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY WHERE IT IS A LITTLE WARMER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS THREAT IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE
LINE.

WITH STRONGER FORCING ARRIVING LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT AS INDICATED
BY NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WITH A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE...SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY RAIN
GAGE REPORTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES
TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS AGAINST MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ARE THE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING A RELATIVELY FAST CLIP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SOAK INTO PARCHED GROUNDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS PICKING UP SOME RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THAT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY.
CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
NEAR THE RED RIVER. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  43  63  38 /  80   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              55  76  42  64  36 /  80   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  70  41  59  36 / 100  10   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  72  39  62  36 /  60  10   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  71  39  62  36 /  90  10   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            58  74  43  62  39 /  80   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  73  41  62  37 / 100  10   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  75  42  64  37 / 100   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  77  42  64  37 /  80   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  36  62  35 /  30   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05





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