Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201229 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.  79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75








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