Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 262344
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z FRI...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NM/WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<05KTS) OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF
SITES...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z THURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN
CO/NM.

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  96  74  97  76 /   5   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              69  96  71  99  73 /  10   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            69  96  71  97  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          68  94  70  95  73 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            74  97  75  98  77 /   5   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  94  70  95  72 /   5   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  95  71  97  73 /   5   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  96  70  98  72 /  10   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  96  71  98  73 /  10   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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