Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 182315
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMING
MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOMORROW. A FEW CLOUDS NEAR 5000FT AND ALSO
NEAR 30000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT OTHERWISE NO CONCERNS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE AN EASTERLY WAVE WAS MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EXPANDS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH ARKLATEX AND INTO TEXAS. DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY REBOUNDING
INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDINESS DURING THIS TIME AS THE HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
WHILE IT TRACKS EAST OVER THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AS NOTED BY THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING
WITH A PWAT JUST UNDER AN INCH ONLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY.
WE EXPECT BOTH THE HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM AND A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT BAY.

ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA WILL SINK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY AS IT BECOMES CUT OFF
FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS FOR LATE OCTOBER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

05/

.EXTENDED/TUESDAY AND BEYOND/...
DESPITE A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR LATER THIS WEEK. EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF A BIT REGARDING THE WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AS A
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE EURO...GFS...AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CUTOFF BY
FRIDAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT IN THE HIGH PLAINS BECOMES INCREASINGLY
MERIDIONAL. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS...WHERE? THE EURO DEVELOPS
EXTENSIVE EASTWARD RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CUTS THE
UPPER LOW BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING A REX BLOCK PATTERN AT
500MB. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD
BUT IT KEEPS IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND LESS POSITIVELY TILTED THAN
THE EURO. THESE FACTORS RESULT IN A DIFFERENCE OF A FEW HUNDRED
MILES FOR THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. BY 12Z FRIDAY IT IS LOCATED
IN NORTHERN MEXICO WITH THE EURO AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE GFS.

EITHER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS COULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN
CHANCES PRIMARILY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT UNTIL EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CAN SHOW MORE AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE POPS. HAVE LEFT LOW POPS WITH RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY UNTIL THIS SYSTEM CAN BE PINNED DOWN IN TERMS OF BOTH
TIMING AND LOCATION.

77/STALLEY

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  77  59  82  61 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              58  78  58  81  57 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             51  73  53  77  57 /   0   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            51  77  54  81  56 /   5   5  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          51  76  54  79  55 /   0   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            57  77  59  81  60 /   0   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           55  77  56  81  57 /   0   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  78  58  81  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  80  58  80  55 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  78  55  82  57 /  10   5  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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