Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260205 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
905 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH TEXAS. THE SQUALL LINE HAS NEARLY PUSHED ALL THE WAY OUT OF
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND WET GROUNDS.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN SOME AREAS
WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. AREAS THAT HAVE SOME WIND GENERALLY
HAVE VISIBILITIES NEAR 10 MILES. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE VERY PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG BUT IF
IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

DUNN



&&

.AVIATION...


/ISSUED 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN METROPLEX
FROM WEST TO EAST AND AFFECT TAFS SITES BETWEEN 19Z-22Z. STRONG TO
SEVERE WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPORARY IFR/LIFR VSBY IN
HEAVY RAINS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND
EXPECT BY 6PM LOCAL AND 23Z TO SEE STORMS EAST OF TAF SITES. WILL
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND SQUALL LINE...BUT BELIEVE
AIRMASS WILL BE TOO WORKED OVER FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND.

FOR WACO MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LINE AND
WILL SHOW A TEMPO FROM 18Z TO 22Z.

OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR STRATUS SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15KT.

ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. MAY NEED VCTS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

TR.92


&&

.UPDATE...

SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SEVERE
PARTS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF ALL OF OUR COUNTIES. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 212. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE COOL WITH REMNANT HIGH
CLOUDINESS. IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL RECOVER SOME BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR TOMORROW SO WILL AWAIT ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE TO SEE
HOW ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY PLAY OUT TOMORROW. OTHER THAN
CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AND LOWERING POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES MADE WERE TO LOW TEMPERATURES.
TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S NOW AND SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
NEAR CHILDRESS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH A BAND OF INTENSE AND SEVERE
CONVECTION EXTENDING ACROSS OUT WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE
HILL COUNTY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE WERE SCATTERED CLUSTERS
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST 30 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY GOING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM.
AFTERWARD...THINK MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE QUIET BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WE WILL BE REMOVING COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH AS THE LINE
PROGRESSES EAST AND THE THREAT ENDS TO THE WEST.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND A DRYLINE WILL
ENCROACH INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WHATEVER GOES UP ALONG THE
DRYLINE WILL HAVE SBCAPE OF 5500 J/KG TO FEED ON...THUS BEING CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES
REMAIN.

OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL
STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...THUS A RETURN TO
HIGHER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT FOR UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE PANHANDLE OR
EASTERN COLORADO THAT COULD AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO CHANGE OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE HIGHS AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL. AS CONVECTION ENDS TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND WE
WILL SEE THE SUN RETURN FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A RETURN OF MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BACK TO THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  87  70  86  71 /  10  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              61  86  71  86  71 /  10  20  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             64  82  68  85  69 / 100  20  30  30  20
DENTON, TX            59  86  69  86  70 /  10  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          62  84  69  86  70 /  10  20  30  30  20
DALLAS, TX            62  86  71  87  71 /  10  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           64  85  71  88  70 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  72  86  71 /  10  20  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            63  87  70  88  71 /   5  20  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  88  69  86  69 /   5  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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