Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 282325 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...FROPA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY.

ALL AREA TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH SKC-SCT250 DURING THIS FORECAST.

TOMORROW MORNING/S COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING FROPA
IN THE METROPLEX 12-13Z AND AT KACT AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AT 9-13KTS TONIGHT BUT VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 07Z AS
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARRIVES. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY 13G24KT
AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 30/00Z. SPEEDS SHOULD LESSEN TO
10-14KT FOR THURSDAY EVENING. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FROM WHAT I HAVE SEEN SO FAR ON THE
METARS...BRECKENRIDGE...GAINESVILLE AND HAMILTON HAVE ALL REACHED 82
DEGREES. WACO IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY
OF 81 DEGREES. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT WILL STILL BE A RELATIVELY WARM
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CONTINUOUSLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE RED RIVER TO
UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

ON FRIDAY...LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE BEST TIMING
FOR PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL AVERAGE GREATER
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY RECEIVING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS ON SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A PIECE
OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE OVER BAJA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY EJECT
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MODELS REGARDING THE HANDLING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EC/GEM. THE GFS
BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS WITH ANOTHER RAIN EVENT
WHILE THE OTHER TWO MODELS TRACK THE LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE GOM RESULTING IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN HERE IN NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST BEYOND
SUNDAY...WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  61  39  52  43 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              50  66  40  54  44 /   0   5   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             49  59  34  52  39 /   0   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            49  60  37  52  42 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          49  60  36  53  41 /   0   5   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            51  62  39  52  43 /   0   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           51  63  38  53  42 /   0   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         51  66  40  54  43 /   0   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            50  68  42  54  45 /   0   5   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     47  61  37  51  43 /   0   5  10  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





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