Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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647
FXUS64 KFWD 220857
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
357 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging remains in control of much of the Central U.S. with
hot temperatures and little chance for rainfall. Temperatures will
continue to nudge upwards today with most areas at or slightly
above 100 degrees...although the upper high does show some signs
of weakening a bit as we head into early next week.

For today...sunny skies and hot temperatures are expected with
rainfall chances near zero across the region. Afternoon dewpoints
have generally been mixing out into the low to mid 60s along and
west of I-35 and mid to upper 60s east of I-35. This should occur
again this afternoon so with highs in the 99 to 102 degree range
today...heat indices may approach 105 degrees in some of our
eastern counties. Localized areas that have received rainfall over
the last several weeks have generally seen high temperatures 1-2
degrees cooler than other locations that have missed out on rain.
Given the marginal threat of 105+ heat indices across any
particular area...have opted not to issue a heat advisory at this
time.

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into the
Pacific northwest this morning. This feature will gradually move
east across the Northern Plains and into south-central Canada
through the weekend. While this feature won`t directly impact
North Texas weather...the broad troughing associated with it will
help flatten the strong ridge over the Central U.S. into early
next week. In addition...a westerly moving upper low will track
along the Gulf coast states and into southeast Texas by Wednesday.
All of this will mean slightly cooler temperatures heading into
next week and more moisture spreading into the region. Ultimately
we will see an increase in scattered afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity early next week.

Moisture will begin to increase from the east as early as tomorrow
and there will likely be scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms developing across East Texas. Right now...it looks
like most of this activity will stay east of our area...so will
only have 10% PoPs across our far eastern counties Saturday and
Sunday. Better moisture and some weak forcing from the approaching
upper trough to the east should result in slightly better coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday across North
Texas.

Beyond Tuesday...the upper ridge will remain to our west keeping
the southern Plains in weak northwest flow aloft. While rain
chances don`t look impressive on any given day...there will likely
be at least some isolated afternoon shower/storm activity through
the end of next week. High temperatures will likely remain in the
mid/upper 90s during this time.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns...None. VFR with south flow.

VFR will continue through the entire TAF cycle for the Metroplex
and Waco TAF sites. Generally southerly winds will prevail with
slight variations between the SE and SSW. Afternoon VFR CU may
become a bit more expansive on Friday afternoon compared to
previous day`s as the upper ridge shifts towards the west.
Convective chances will be confined to east TX where slightly
better moisture and weaker subsidence will be juxtaposed.

Bain


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  80  99  80  98 /   0   0   5   0   5
Waco               101  78 100  78  99 /   0   0   5   0   5
Paris              100  78  99  77  97 /  10   0  10   5  10
Denton             100  76  99  77  97 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            99  77  99  77  97 /   0   0   5   0   5
Dallas             100  81  99  80  98 /   0   0   5   0   5
Terrell             99  77  98  77  97 /   0   0  10   5  10
Corsicana           99  78  98  77  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
Temple             100  77  99  77  98 /   0   0   5   0  10
Mineral Wells      101  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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