Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 041754 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1154 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY
00Z FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST MOVES EASTWARD. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS BY 16Z.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO DRY THAT THE ONLY RESULT WILL BE
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
WEAK PRESSURE RISES AND THE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
NEARLY CALM AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP
BY SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT
BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE
EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY ENSURES A
CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IS VERY STRONG BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY
RESULT WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLER WARMER. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
MARGINALLY ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT 10 TO 20. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND KEEP SATURDAY`S TEMPS NEAR
OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST AS
SUBSIDENT DOWNSLOPE WARMING TAKES PLACE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 60 ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. TEXAS WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER TRANQUIL
OVER OUR REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. THE
CORE OF A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
BUT A COUPLE OF DAYS OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR. MEANWHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET TOO
COLD AS WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY UP AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN WHICH SHOULD SEND HIGHS INTO THE
60S AND 70S AREAWIDE BY LATE WEEK.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO STRESS
DORMANT FINE FUELS WHICH WILL INEVITABLY RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THANKFULLY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY MONDAY
HAS WIND SPEEDS THAT ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
THREAT. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE OUR NEXT RAIN
MAKING SYSTEM ARRIVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC AROUND FEB 15TH.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  33  57  37  58 /   0   0   0  10   5
WACO, TX              55  29  57  35  59 /   0   0   0  10   5
PARIS, TX             51  29  55  34  54 /   0   0   0  20  20
DENTON, TX            53  29  57  34  56 /   0   0   0  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          53  28  56  34  56 /   0   0   0  20   5
DALLAS, TX            54  35  58  38  57 /   0   0   0  10   5
TERRELL, TX           53  29  57  36  57 /   0   0   0  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         55  32  57  37  58 /   0   0   0  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            56  29  58  36  60 /   0   0   0  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  29  59  31  59 /   0   0   0  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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