Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 011737
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ALL NORTH TEXAS SITES HAD WARMED UP TO 32 DEGREES OR ABOVE AS OF
11 AM. THE SLOW PACE OF THE WARM UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW/ICE PACK ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WARMEST AIR WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE MANY
LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S.

FOR THIS UPDATE WE WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT
NOON. WE WILL ALSO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTH DUE TO THE SNOW PACK. OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER MAJOR
CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF
SITES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KDFW HAS STEADFASTLY REFUSED TO CLIMB
ABOVE 32F BUT THEY AND KAFW SHOULD FINALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY
15Z. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF -FZDZ FOR THOSE TWO SITES THROUGH THAT
TIME...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT -DZ/-RA BR THROUGH 03Z. WE MAY SEE A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING
BUT IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
WARM...MOIST AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO OVERUN A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...NOTED BY THE COLD
CONDITIONS...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A 47+ DEGREE WARM
NOSE WAS PRESENT AT 4000 FEET ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT/S
SOUNDING...AND THIS TEMPERATURE HAS PROBABLY CLIMBED EVEN MORE
SINCE THEN. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TREND HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO
TRANSITION DOWN TO THE SURFACE DUE TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WHICH OCCURRED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TRENDS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE SHOWN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A FEW TENTHS
OF A DEGREE PER HOUR AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER WARMING THEREAFTER. WE WILL
LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR CONTINUE UNTIL NOON...WHEN SUFFICIENT TIME HAS BEEN
ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT.

AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION...IT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS...HENCE THE INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT...RAIN MAY ONCE AGAIN MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A WHILE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
IS DUE TO A SECOND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ANOTHER ADVISORY IS NOT
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

CONTINUED OVERRUNNING WILL BRING COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM THE COLD AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT.

A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT BARRELING BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
ADVANCE TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST...SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PLENTY COLD AT
ALL LOCATIONS FOR RAIN TO MIX AND PERHAPS SWITCH OVER TO SLEET IN
THE COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW AS WELL...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED SLEET OR
SNOW FOR ALL COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...STRENGTH OF THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...AND
DEPTH OF THE COLD LAYER ARE ALL UNCERTAINTIES...SO WE WILL WATCH
HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND FINE-TUNE THE
SPECIFICS AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MODELS NOW
INDICATE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING EAST ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND. LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  35  44  44  68 /  40  40  40  50  40
WACO, TX              42  37  46  45  72 /  40  50  30  30  30
PARIS, TX             41  36  44  41  67 /  50  50  50  50  60
DENTON, TX            38  33  43  42  65 /  40  30  30  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          39  35  43  42  67 /  40  40  40  50  40
DALLAS, TX            40  36  45  43  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
TERRELL, TX           42  36  46  44  68 /  50  50  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         44  39  47  46  72 /  50  60  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            45  38  46  45  72 /  40  50  30  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  33  43  40  69 /  30  30  30  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ091-092-
100>102-115>117-129-130-141-142.


&&

$$

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