Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 260507
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1207 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE RAIN
COOLED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS WINDS BECOME REESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WARM MOIST GULF AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INTERACT
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RAIN COOLED AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS AND AREAS OF FOG
AT AREA TAF SITES. THINK THAT IFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z...TYPICALLY THE COOLEST TIME OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS NOT YET CAUGHT UP WITH HOW COOL THE RAIN
COOLED AIR IS BEHIND THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA YESTERDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
IFR CONDITIONS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF AMENDMENTS BASED ON SHORT TERM CLOUD AND
VISIBILITY TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

EXPECT CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF HEATING/FILTERED SUNSHINE. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION UNDER A SOMEWHAT COOL
TROPOSPHERE ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE VERY HIGH
VALUES OF CAPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG A DRYLINE AFTER 21Z/4PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE VCTS IN THE
TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT WEST AND
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES...WILL HAVE TO PLACE MORE THAN JUST VCTS IN THE TAF IN
LATER FORECASTS.

CAVANAUGH



&&

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH TEXAS. THE SQUALL LINE HAS NEARLY PUSHED ALL THE WAY OUT OF
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND WET GROUNDS.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN SOME AREAS
WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. AREAS THAT HAVE SOME WIND GENERALLY
HAVE VISIBILITIES NEAR 10 MILES. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE VERY PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG BUT IF
IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
NEAR CHILDRESS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH A BAND OF INTENSE AND SEVERE
CONVECTION EXTENDING ACROSS OUT WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE
HILL COUNTY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE WERE SCATTERED CLUSTERS
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST 30 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY GOING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM.
AFTERWARD...THINK MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE QUIET BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WE WILL BE REMOVING COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH AS THE LINE
PROGRESSES EAST AND THE THREAT ENDS TO THE WEST.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND A DRYLINE WILL
ENCROACH INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WHATEVER GOES UP ALONG THE
DRYLINE WILL HAVE SBCAPE OF 5500 J/KG TO FEED ON...THUS BEING CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES
REMAIN.

OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL
STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...THUS A RETURN TO
HIGHER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT FOR UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE PANHANDLE OR
EASTERN COLORADO THAT COULD AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO CHANGE OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE HIGHS AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL. AS CONVECTION ENDS TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND WE
WILL SEE THE SUN RETURN FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A RETURN OF MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BACK TO THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  71  85  70 /  30  20  20  30  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  86  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             68  85  69  83  69 /  30  30  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            69  86  70  84  69 /  30  20  20  30  50
MCKINNEY, TX          69  86  70  84  69 /  30  30  20  30  40
DALLAS, TX            71  87  71  85  71 /  30  20  20  30  40
TERRELL, TX           71  88  70  85  71 /  30  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  86  71  84  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            70  88  71  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  86  69  84  67 /  20  20  20  30  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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