Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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490
FXUS64 KFWD 270823
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
323 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft remains centered along the Eastern Seaboard
while an inverted trough continues to swirl over the northwestern
Gulf. The resulting deep southeasterly flow overhead has brought
abundant Gulf moisture northwestward into North and Central Texas,
and this will be the main source of our rain chances over the next
several days.

PWATs currently range from an inch and a half over our
northwestern-most counties to 2 inches over the southeast. The
expectation is that scattered convection will develop early this
afternoon as temperatures climb into the upper 80s to near 90,
then fall apart around sunset due to the loss of surface heating.
One subtle difference today compared to yesterday is that we do
not have the shortwave trough transiting the Plains, so large-
scale subsidence from the western reaches of the Eastern U.S.
ridge may be a little stronger this afternoon. POPs as a result
are slightly lower than yesterday, and will range from slight
chance across the west to chance over the central and east. A few
storms may become strong with gusty winds and brief heavy rain,
but the high moisture and weak shear environment will keep the
severe threat low.

The latest guidance indicates that the Gulf Coast trough will
close off over the next 24 hours and perhaps intensify along the
mid and upper TX Coast. Development into an organized tropical
system is not likely, but not completely out of the question.
Either way, the low pressure system will work its way slowly to
the west or southwest over the next several days. Rain chances
should gradually decrease as the focus for convection becomes
centered nearer to the vicinity of the low pressure area, and the
system itself drifts farther away. However, with Gulf moisture
lingering across the region, we should continue to see at least a
slight chance of rain each day through the middle of next week.

Upper level ridging is still expected to strengthen overhead late
next week. This will place us in a hot and dry pattern during the
extended portion of the forecast, and likely on into the holiday
weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1116 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop again late Saturday morning and continue through the
afternoon across North Texas. For now have just placed VCSH for
the 18z through 00z period in the Metroplex TAFs. Outside of any
showers/thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail and winds will
be east to southeast at 6 to 10 knots.

At Waco...the forecast is pretty similar to the Metroplex. Expect
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop late
Saturday morning and continue through the afternoon across
Central Texas. This activity will wane as sunset approaches. Thus
have placed VCTS in the Waco TAF for the 18z through 00z period.
Once again...Outside of any showers/thunderstorms...VFR conditions
will prevail with east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  75  91  76  93 /  30  10  30  20  20
Waco                90  73  89  74  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
Paris               90  72  91  72  92 /  40  20  20  20  20
Denton              90  72  91  72  92 /  30  10  20  20  20
McKinney            90  73  92  73  92 /  40  20  30  20  20
Dallas              91  76  92  76  93 /  30  20  30  20  20
Terrell             89  74  91  74  91 /  40  20  30  20  20
Corsicana           89  74  90  75  91 /  40  20  30  20  30
Temple              89  73  88  73  88 /  30  20  40  20  40
Mineral Wells       91  71  90  72  91 /  20  10  30  20  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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