Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220456 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1156 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.AVIATION...
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns...None. VFR with south flow.

VFR will continue through the entire TAF cycle for the Metroplex
and Waco TAF sites. Generally southerly winds will prevail with
slight variations between the SE and SSW. Afternoon VFR CU may
become a bit more expansive on Friday afternoon compared to
previous day`s as the upper ridge shifts towards the west.
Convective chances will be confined to east TX where slightly
better moisture and weaker subsidence will be juxtaposed.

Bain

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/
Water vapor imagery continues to show strong upper high centered
over OK with fair weather cumulus over roughly the eastern half of
the area. Temperatures once again this afternoon generally in the
mid to upper 90s with heat index values in the 100-104 range.

By tomorrow, upper high begins to shift westward. Guidance
continues to show temps a couple of degrees warmer tomorrow than
today...but with the heights dropping ever so slightly and
southeast afternoon winds temps may not be quite as hot as
guidance suggests. Nevertheless, should be close to 100 areawide
with heat index values generally 100-104 once again. Will not be
issuing a heat advisory as it appears we will be just shy of
criteria.

Upper high weakens a bit on Saturday and with ample moisture in
place...could see some isolated afternoon thunderstorms over our
eastern counties but the higher chance for pops should generally
stay to our east. Guidance continue to show temps at or above 100
for most of the area but will once again go a degree or two cooler
as a result of the upper high weakening.

Not much change expected on Sunday with temps once again around
the 100 degree mark. Should cool off a couple of degrees early
week into midweek and be at or just slightly above climo. Models
not quite as bullish on developing trofiness in the upper levels
as they have been the last couple of days, but there should be
enough of a weakness to allow for isolated to widely scattered
afternoon thunderstorms with the slightly better chances over the
eastern counties.

WILEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  99  79 100  80 /   0   0   0   5   0
Waco                77 100  78 100  79 /   0   0   0   5   0
Paris               76  99  78  99  78 /   0  10   5  20   5
Denton              75  99  76 100  77 /   0   0   0   5   0
McKinney            76  98  77 100  78 /   0   0   0  10   5
Dallas              79 100  81 100  80 /   0   0   0   5   0
Terrell             76  98  77  99  78 /   0   5   5  10   5
Corsicana           77  98  78  99  79 /   0   5   5  10   5
Temple              75  99  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       74  99  74 101  76 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/58



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