Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 281750 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...TIMING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
AND CONTINUATION OF IFR CONDITIONS.

METROPLEX TERMINALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE -FZDZ THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...THEN WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
FORECAST. COLD SURFACE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE METROPLEX
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS FORECAST WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ABOVE
3000 FEET PRODUCES WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE. THE NET RESULT IS LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITH IFR CIGS
AROUND 700 FEET THIS AFTERNOON FALLING INTO THE 200-400 FEET RANGE
OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...AND
IFR TO MVFR VIS THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY 2-3SM OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR VIS TO FALL TO 1SM OR LESS
OVERNIGHT IF THE LIGHT DRIZZLE BECOMES HEAVY. ALSO...EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION TO VARY OFF AND ON WITH A LULL AROUND
DAYBREAK OR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

KACT WILL HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD REACH 32 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY END SOONER AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL SHOULD HAVE NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

KDFW EXTENDED...IFR CIGS/VIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VIS
DEVELOPING NEAR 02/00Z (SUNDAY EVENING). IFR CIGS MAY NOT IMPROVE
UNTIL TUESDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND ON/OFF
ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR FOG. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
THE STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
HAS ALLOWED US TO REMOVE A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. FOR THIS UPDATE WE WILL REMOVE HENDERSON...
NAVARRO...LIMESTONE AND FALLS. KAUFMAN AND VAN ZANDT WILL MOST
LIKELY BE REMOVED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SINCE TEMPS ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING CURRENTLY.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.    79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
EARLY MORNING RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH. THIS
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING FROM LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION CAN BE SEEN CREEPING
NORTH...SO LULLS IN WINTRY PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHORT-LIVED.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH NOON. SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS AT NOON TODAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH 6 PM.

THE SHORTWAVE THAT GENERATED OUR IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL YESTERDAY HAS
RACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUING WINTER WEATHER HAS NOW DEVELOPED
IN ITS WAKE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING UPPER LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH ITSELF
WILL GENERATE PERSISTENT MOIST RETURN FLOW ON TOP OF OUR COLD
SURFACE AIRMASS. FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
SOUTH-TO-NORTH TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS NOT ALL
THAT STRONG TODAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ALL PRECIP
TO FALL IN LIQUID FORM THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES
WHICH RECEIVED THE MOST SNOWFALL. THIS AREA MAY HAVE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WE WILL ASSESS TRENDS LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EXTEND THE
ADVISORY PAST 6 PM ACROSS PART OF THE REGION IF TEMPERATURES
WARRANT IT. AT THIS TIME...THE 6 PM EXPIRATION TIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
OPEN UP INTO A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH...AND MAKE ITS WAY EAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. ONE DISTINCT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM
THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. ADDED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM...MOIST AIR...WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
BLAST OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE ALL OF THE PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF ROUND OF SLEET OR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD OCCUR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD.    30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  34  34  47  39  50 /  60  40  40  50  40
WACO, TX              39  37  52  42  56 /  60  40  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             35  34  46  38  48 /  60  50  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            33  33  45  36  49 /  60  40  40  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          34  34  46  38  49 /  60  50  40  50  40
DALLAS, TX            36  36  48  40  52 /  60  40  40  50  40
TERRELL, TX           38  36  49  41  52 /  60  50  40  60  50
CORSICANA, TX         40  38  51  44  56 /  50  40  40  60  50
TEMPLE, TX            41  39  54  44  60 /  50  40  40  50  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     33  33  48  37  50 /  60  30  30  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141>145.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ156>159.


&&

$$

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