Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261710
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1210 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Precipitation is tapering off ever so slowly across North and
Central Texas while heavy showers continue just south of the
forecast area. We should see an overall decrease in activity for
the rest of the day as dry air works its way south behind
yesterday`s cold front. POPs have been adjusted slightly to
indicate the lingering showers this afternoon but all thunder has
been removed. Otherwise, minor adjustments to temperatures and sky
cover have been done to keep up with the latest trends. We are
watching the clearing line up along the Red River progressing
slowly south, so the northern half of the region could see brief
sun before dusk. Cloudy conditions will persist well into the
evening across the rest of the area.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 712 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/
/12Z TAFs/

Challenges will continue for at least through 18Z-21Z today, as a
cold front continues marching into Central TX. Showers, occasionally
moderate to heavy will continue across the southeast half of the
area and will affect mainly KDAL/KACT through most of the morning.
A shortwave nearby and low level, yet weak isentropic ascent will
continue over the initial shallow frontal boundary through midday.
The frontal inversion is expected deepen with time across DFW
airports by late morning into the afternoon hours, allow drier low
level air to entrain into the area. Meanwhile, Waco will likely
take longer til late afternoon or early evening to improve on cigs
and potential for showers.

DFW Metro...
Will maintain some IFR wx conditions at KDAL with warm process
rainfall continuing through 14Z, but otherwise both weather and
cigs should improve to VFR. Have held VCSH in most areas through
mid morning, but do not expect any by/after 18Z. North winds 10-15
mph may become a little gusty at times this afternoon with CAA
deepening, then diminishing overnight. Partial clearing overnight,
diminishing north winds, and moist soil will likely allow for
some MVFR/BR VSBY conditions to form before sunrise Tues morning.

Waco...
IFR conditions will improve to MVFR later this morning with a
gradual deepening of a frontal inversion. Weak isentropic ascent
will occur over the the inversion and produce scattered showers
into the afternoon hours. By 21Z...some drier air should finally
filter in with cigs rising into low VFR through much of the
evening with north wind diminishing below 10 mph. With the BL
remaining moist and cool overnight, expect MVFR cigs will return
during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Some MVFR/BR conditions may
occur as well if wind speeds diminish enough.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/
Noticeably cooler air is pouring into North Texas, but the frontal
passage has yet to bring an end to the rain. The best forcing
overnight has remained anchored over South Texas, the more
vigorous convection with which is disrupting the flow above the
frontal layer. VAD wind profiler data confirms what guidance is
suggesting, meager moisture/thermal flux with wind speeds around
10kts. Across Central Texas, where the postfrontal layer is
shallow enough and the available moisture above it deep enough,
showers with heavy rain continue. However, even well behind the
boundary, residual instability (and perhaps some convectively
induced forcing heading north) has been sufficient to allow for
renewed shower development across North Central Texas early this
morning. Although these radar echoes look innocuous, their
rainfall rates are likely not. If heavy rain coincides with
locations that received considerable rainfall on Sunday, there may
be some flooding concerns, but at this time, any issues should be
isolated.

As the dry postfrontal layer continues to deepen today, the back
edge of the precipitation will cross the Red River, likely moving
south of the I-20 corridor by late in the day. The cloud shield
will remain, and afternoon temperatures will peak in the 70s
throughout nearly all of North and Central Texas today, even where
little if any rain fell during the event. Any lingering shower
activity in Central Texas should come to an end this evening.

Sunshine will emerge Tuesday, but with many locations starting
the day in the 50s and lower 60s, high temperatures may struggle
to reach 80F. A warming trend will result in more seasonal
temperatures on Wednesday, but a reinforcing shot of cool air will
arrive Wednesday night. A sunny but noticeably milder day will
follow on Thursday. Seasonal temperatures with humidity more
befitting of autumn will prevail into the opening weekend of
October. Once our maritime tropical air mass is finally scoured
out during the next 24 hours, dew points will remain below 60F
regionwide until at least early next week.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  60  81  59  86 /  30  10   5   0   0
Waco                74  62  80  55  86 /  50  20  10   5   5
Paris               76  58  81  56  85 /  20   5   5   0   0
Denton              75  53  80  52  85 /  30   5   5   0   0
McKinney            75  55  80  54  86 /  30   5   5   0   0
Dallas              75  62  80  61  87 /  30  10   5   0   0
Terrell             76  60  81  56  86 /  30  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           77  62  81  58  86 /  40  20  10   5   0
Temple              75  60  78  57  86 /  50  20  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       74  54  79  52  85 /  30  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

82/30



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