Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 010738
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
238 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD RIDING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT THE EXTREME EAST/SOUTHEAST ZONES OF
NORTH TEXAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO
MANAGE TO FORM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WILL DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES
AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. IT APPEARS THAT THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 90S. THE SAVING GRACE WILL BE SOME RELIEF DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN LOWS FALL INTO THE 70S.

THE WARM START TO SEPTEMBER IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR NORTH TEXAS AND
USUALLY LINGERS THROUGH ABOUT THE SECOND OR THIRD WEEK OF THE
MONTH BEFORE THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOOKING AT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR
OF ALASKA AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...IT IS OBVIOUS THAT THE
DAYS ARE GETTING SHORTER AND THE COOLER AIR OF FALL IS POISED TO
MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE CONUS BEFORE LONG.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1126 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE. S/SE WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10KT. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS AT WACO DURING THE
EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION WITH CIGS LIKELY STAYING EAST OF THE TAF SITE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  75  96  76  96 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              95  74  95  73  98 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             93  70  93  71  95 /  20  20  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            94  73  95  74  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  73  94  73  97 /  10  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  95  77  96 /  10  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  94  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         93  73  95  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            94  71  94  71  95 /  20  20  20  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  96  72  97 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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