Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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683
FXUS64 KFWD 132057
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
257 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Sunday/
Light winds and generally clear skies are expected this evening
which will allow temps to fall into the 20s and low 30s across the
region. Some high thin cirrus clouds should develop and spread
across the region late tonight with a weak shortwave trough, but
this should not impact radiational heat loss significantly.
Northerly winds this evening will come around to the southeast by
morning. Lots of sunshine on Sunday will result in a pleasant day
with warmer temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 50s in
the west to the mid 40s in the east.

TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday night through Saturday/

Low level warm/moist advection will continue Sunday night in
response to an approaching surface trough and cold front. Although
warmer temperatures are expected it will still be cold with lows
in the 30s.

The cold front will move quickly through the Texas Panhandle and
Oklahoma Monday morning and should reach the Red River around
midday. Temperatures ahead of the front will continue to warm with
partial sun and continued warm air advection. Daytime temperatures
should make it into the 50s except along the Red River where the
upper 40s will be more likely. This shallow Arctic airmass will
not be hindered by boundary layer mixing and should have no
problem surging through North Texas late Monday afternoon. Lift
along and behind the front should be sufficient for some light
rain to develop. Although temperatures will fall through the
afternoon Thursday, it will remain above freezing which will keep
all precipitation of the liquid variety.

Things will become interesting Monday evening as temperatures quickly
fall. Locations roughly along and north of Interstate 20 should
fall below freezing before midnight with the remainder of the
forecast area reaching freezing before sunrise Tuesday.
Isentropic lift above the wedge of Arctic air will likely result
in a mix of precipitation types with cold rain first, followed by
light freezing rain, followed by light sleet and or snow.
Confidence in this scenario continues to grow with successive runs
of multiple models in agreement. The QPF by all solutions remains
light but it will not take much precip to cause some substantial
impacts to travel since surface temperatures will likely be in
the 20s before the precip ends during the morning hours Tuesday.
We will continue to highlight this potential winter weather event
with a Special Weather Statement. We will not issue a Winter
Storm Watch at this time since freezing rain, sleet and snow
amounts are not expected reach warning criteria but again, impacts
could be on the high side.

The precipitation will move south and east of the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon, but the cold air will remain in place and
clouds will likely linger for most of the day. Therefore,
afternoon highs will struggle to make it above freezing and any
residual precipitation will remain frozen so travel impacts could
linger through the day.

Clouds will finally clear Tuesday night which will result in a
very cold night with lows mainly in the teens.

Brief ridging aloft and ample sun on Wednesday will help
temperatures to finally warm above freezing, but it will still
remain in the middle and upper 30s.

The upper ridge axis will translate east Wednesday night ahead of
an upper low progged to move across the Colorado/New Mexico
border. Increasing upper level diffluence and low level moisture
will result in increasing precipitation chances Thursday. The
models do differ on the speed and placement of the upper low with
the ECMWF keeping the system generally across Central Texas and
the GFS having a more northerly solution. Unfortunately,
precipitation will likely begin when temperatures are near or
below freezing which could result in another winter weather event.
Looking at the forecast soundings reveals that freezing rain
would be the most likely precipitation type Thursday morning with
mainly a cold rain Thursday afternoon. For now we will keep PoPs
low due to model discontinuity but this system certainly bears
watching since moisture should be much more available.

The upper trough axis will move east of the area Thursday night and
precipitation chances will end through Saturday but will likely return
by Sunday. An appreciable warmup is expected Friday and Saturday
with ridging aloft and the return of Gulf Moisture. High
temperatures Friday and Saturday will be generally in the 60s with
lows Friday night in the 40s.

79

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1205 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/
VFR will prevail with generally clear skies aside from a few high
clouds. Winds will be northerly near 10kt today, but become light
northeasterly after sunset and light southeasterly by sunrise.
South winds will increase to near 10kt Sunday afternoon. TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    30  53  36  53  23 /   0   0   0  20  50
Waco                25  55  35  58  26 /   0   0   0  10  50
Paris               25  46  31  50  20 /   0   0   0  30  50
Denton              25  52  34  53  21 /   0   0   0  20  40
McKinney            25  50  33  52  21 /   0   0   0  20  50
Dallas              31  53  36  54  24 /   0   0   0  20  50
Terrell             26  51  32  54  23 /   0   0   0  20  50
Corsicana           28  51  34  56  26 /   0   0   0  10  50
Temple              26  56  36  59  27 /   0   0   0  10  50
Mineral Wells       24  56  33  54  21 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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