Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 080529
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A
RESULT....NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
MONDAY BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
AT 21Z /3 PM CST/...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A
GAINESVILLE TO HAMILTON LINE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE METROPLEX BEFORE SUNSET...THROUGH WACO-
TEMPLE-KILLEEN BY MID EVENING AND THROUGH THE PALESTINE AREA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE NOT MUCH
COOLER.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE AS WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
AREA WIDE.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE MONDAY.
SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM 9 AM CST THROUGH 6
PM CST MONDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS HAVE KEPT THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN
TO DALLAS TO CENTERVILLE. A GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY FOR ANY PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
INCLUDED IN A RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 50S WHICH WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY
WERE TODAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING
TREND WILL START ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AREA WIDE TUESDAY...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL BY THURSDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER...60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE FOR THE LATE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  36  57  34  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              33  58  31  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  53  30  54  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            33  56  31  62  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          35  55  32  61  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            38  57  36  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           35  56  33  61  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  56  33  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  58  33  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     33  57  30  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM CST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

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