Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 250826
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR EL PASO IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY...PROVIDING OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWING A SHORT REPRIEVE
OVERNIGHT. STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF OUR CWA. HI-RES MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIME OF DAY SHOULD ENSURE MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AS LIFT SPREADS OVERHEAD LATER TODAY. SBCAPE IN THE
RANGE OF 2000-4000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL BULK SHEAR VALUES TO GENERATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED
DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY EVENT. HOWEVER...RESPECTABLE
PWATS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL STILL BE PLENTY HIGH FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT.

THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF TODAY/S FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS PATTERN WILL SET US UP WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD
SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AREA-WIDE AS A DRYLINE
SURGES EAST NEAR THE WESTERN CWA BORDER. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WEST AND THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE. OVERALL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...GOOD MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
ENSURE THAT JUST ABOUT ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BECOME
SEVERE. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP 30 POPS OVER THE WEST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...BRINGING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK. GOOD MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
WEST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN SLOW DOWN...BROADEN AND LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO NEXT
MONDAY. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD.

30

&&

.AVIATION...


FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FROM THE 00Z
TAFS...SO APPENDED THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

IF STRATUS DOES NOT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS EXPECTED...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. SEE A FEW
STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO
CLOUDS PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP...BUT WILL BE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CAVANAUGH

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
/ISSUED 711 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. LOW CIGS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TOMORROW ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD BACK OVER NORTH
TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW
POINTS ALREADY SURGING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE NO
REASON TO DOUBT THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL
TO IFR LEVELS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING MONDAY
MORNING.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS AREA TAF SITES ON MONDAY. THE FIRST ROUND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE EAST OVER THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOVING EAST OFF THE DRYLINE
TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR MONDAY EVENING.

EITHER OF THESE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BE
WELL ORGANIZED AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
EITHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MISS AREA TAF SITES. UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE COVERAGE AN INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW...SIMPLY WENT WITH VCTS AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE WINDOWS
WHERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE DFW AND WACO AREAS.
WILL REFINE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR THE FORECAST OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS INCREASES MOVING
FORWARD.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  66  87  70  85 /  70  40  20  30  20
WACO, TX              84  67  86  71  86 /  90  30  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             77  65  82  68  85 /  70  60  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            79  64  86  69  86 /  70  40  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  65  84  69  86 /  70  50  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            83  66  86  71  87 /  70  50  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           83  66  85  71  88 /  80  50  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         81  67  85  72  86 /  90  50  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  67  87  70  88 /  90  30  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  64  88  69  86 /  70  20  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$


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