Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191803 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
103 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...PRECIP/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

PRECIP...
INITIAL IMPULSE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS SWINGING
THROUGH WEST TEXAS AT THIS TIME. A SECOND DISTURBANCE...NOW
GENERATING SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA
WILL IMPACT THE TRANS-PECOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE WITH SUBTLE FEATURES COMING OUT OF MEXICO...MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WIDELY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE RESULTING CONVECTION. TTU
AND LOCAL WRF OUTPUT SUGGEST SHOWERS/STORMS MAY REACH THE I-35
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL
BE LATE SUNDAY WHEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER (BUT
STILL TO THE WEST OF) THE METROPLEX. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE NORTH
(DFW) VS. SOUTH (WACO)...BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INTRODUCE INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

STRATUS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STEADILY INCREASE...EVIDENCED
BY THE EARLIER ONSET OF A DENSE CUMULUS FIELD TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
NEARS...A 30-KT LLJ WILL ENSUE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE LAYER...AND A VFR
CEILING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WAS ANALYZED
FROM THE TX GULF COAST REGION INTO ARKANSAS AND ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE DEEPER AND RICHER GULF MOISTURE CONFINED TO
SOUTH TEXAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS BEGINS THICKENING FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF MID AND UPPER 70S
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...MOVING EAST FROM THE BAJA REGION THIS
MORNING... WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING FROM THE
BAJA SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST
AS INTERSTATE 35 BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND WILL FURTHER
ASSESS THAT POTENTIAL AND ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS NEAR EL PASO AT 0730Z /230 AM CDT/. LIGHTNING WAS
DETECTED OVER WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEST TEXAS TODAY.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
NORTH TEXAS...AND CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. STRONG LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CHANCES WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  61  78  65  80 /   5  10  30  30  40
WACO, TX              78  60  78  61  81 /   5  10  30  20  30
PARIS, TX             77  57  78  61  77 /   5   5  20  20  50
DENTON, TX            79  59  78  63  79 /   5  10  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          78  57  78  64  78 /   5  10  30  30  40
DALLAS, TX            79  62  78  65  79 /   5  10  30  30  40
TERRELL, TX           78  58  78  62  79 /   5   5  20  20  40
CORSICANA, TX         78  59  79  61  79 /   5   5  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  58  76  59  84 /   5  10  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  58  78  61  82 /   5  20  40  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/09





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