Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 180446
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1146 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
A cold front continues to work its way southward into the Texas
Panhandle and Northern Oklahoma this evening, and should make it
near Bowie/0F2 Tuesday morning before becoming stationary. The
location of the front may create a slightly veering wind field at
the low levels of the atmosphere, which may in turn limit the
northward extent of stratus. That said, it still looks like
stratus intrusion is a good possibility as far north as the
Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. This set of TAFs will continue to
advertise MVFR cigs at all locations during the morning hours,
with VFR thereafter. Otherwise, wind speeds will be a little
lower today due to the proximity of the front, with south winds
generally around 12-15 KT for the entire forecast period.
Minor update to bump up sky coverage during the overnight hours
into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast
Low level moisture will stream northward again during the
overnight hours as the nocturnal low level jet intensifies.
Widespread stratus should invade from the Hill Country, but due to
the veered low level flow, that stratus will likely be most
prevalent for areas along and south and east of a Cisco to Denton
to Bonham line. Breezy conditions should largely mitigate fog
development, but there is a low probability a few sheltered areas
may experience some reduced visibility. Clouds should break up
during the mid-morning hours as a cold front slides southward
towards the area. The southwest winds ahead of the front will
allow temperatures on Tuesday afternoon to soar into the upper 80s
and low to perhaps even mid-90s across some parts of North and
The remainder of the forecast is on track and updated products
have been sent.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016/
Hot, breezy and humid sums up the weather across North and Central
Texas for the next couple of days. Afternoon highs through
Wednesday will be mostly in the upper 80s and lower 90s with lows
from the middle 60s to the lower 70s.
Gulf moisture will continue to feed a Central High Plains surface
lee trough. This moisture will remain in place across the region
through Wednesday until a cold front moves through Wednesday night
and Thursday. Surface convergence along the cold front coupled
with large lift provided by a fast moving upper level trough will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the best chances
across the northern half of the region Wednesday night.
Precipitation chances will end from north to south Thursday as the
upper trough moves to the east and dry, subsident air moves in.
Fairly substantial cold air advection is expected Thursday
afternoon with much cooler and windy conditions expected.
Afternoon highs Thursday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the
highs on Wednesday.
A clearing sky, dry air and decreasing wind speeds will result in
a very cool night Thursday into Friday morning with lows from the
middle 40s in the northwest to the middle 50s in the south. Highs
Friday will also be cool and top out in the lower to middle 70s.
A ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Saturday and
remain in place across the entire region through early next week.
This will result in a mostly clear sky and a warming trend. Low
level moisture will also return to the area Sunday and Monday in
response to another developing lee trough across the Central High
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 90 71 90 62 / 0 5 5 10 60
Waco 70 92 70 90 64 / 0 5 5 10 50
Paris 69 89 68 88 61 / 0 5 5 20 50
Denton 69 89 68 89 59 / 0 5 5 10 60
McKinney 70 88 69 87 61 / 0 5 5 10 60
Dallas 72 90 71 89 63 / 0 5 5 10 50
Terrell 70 89 69 88 62 / 0 5 5 10 50
Corsicana 71 90 70 90 64 / 0 5 5 10 50
Temple 69 91 69 90 64 / 0 5 5 10 40
Mineral Wells 67 91 66 89 58 / 0 5 5 10 60