Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 140849
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH WILL KEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AND AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING BUT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THEY WERE ON SATURDAY MORNING.
A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
MILE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO QUICKLY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST.
THIS PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY BRING A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF AND
KEEP SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THEREFORE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT A RAPID WARM UP ON MONDAY SINCE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE BIGGEST PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN EAST
OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE FRONT SHOULD BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE A BIT ON TUESDAY BUT OVERALL...THE FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAK AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND STRONG
RETURN FLOW TO NORTH TEXAS. THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SOLUTIONS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE EAST COAST NEXT SUNDAY AND
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. BOTH SOLUTIONS
ALSO INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1212 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
CIGS HAVE BEEN TRICKY THIS EVENING...WANDERING IN AND OUT WITH
SATELLITE NOT HELPING MUCH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF MVFR THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. CIGS MAY DROP BELOW 020 BETWEEN NOW AND 9Z FOR
METROPLEX SITES...AND THEN POSSIBLY CLEAR OUT TOWARD MORNING. ANY
CLEARING WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT FOG AND/OR REDEVELOPMENT OF CIGS.
THUS...GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO PREVAIL BUT CIGS/VSBY WILL NOT
HOLD CONSTANT WITH PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON TRENDS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  71  90  73  86 /   5  10  10  20  30
WACO, TX              84  68  91  71  88 /   5  10  10  10  30
PARIS, TX             79  64  85  67  82 /   5  10  10  20  30
DENTON, TX            82  67  88  70  86 /   5  10  10  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          80  65  87  68  85 /   5  10  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            82  69  90  73  86 /   5  10  10  20  30
TERRELL, TX           80  67  89  70  85 /   5  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         82  69  90  71  85 /   5  10  10  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            85  67  91  70  84 /  10  10  10  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  66  88  68  87 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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