Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 271542
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1042 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT AN ILL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR AND ALONG A LINE FROM CANTON TO FORT WORTH
TO BRECKENRIDGE. 12 UTC RAOBS ACROSS OK/KS REVEALED THAT THIS
COOLER AIRMASS WAS QUITE SHALLOW /AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
COLD FRONTS/. WITH SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING BEHIND THE FRONT---
WE EXPECT THAT IT WILL LOSE QUITE A BIT OF ITS BAROCLINICITY AND
LIKELY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH NO
REAL MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT ANY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
---FELT THAT IT WAS NECESSARY TO KEEP CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. AS A RESULT...HAVE
NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ELSEHWRE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE MID
90S LIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AS
DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS.

HAVE RETAINED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES /ON THE WARM AND MOIST
SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ WHERE THE AIRMASS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
REST OF THE FORECAST.

BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS INCLUDE BRIEF AND SPOTTY MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING
AND LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AROUND WACO.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUE MOVE TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE HWY 380 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH DFW AIRPORTS BY 15Z THEN THROUGH WACO BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS...THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS
TONIGHT. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE IN THE METROPLEX CURRENTLY
BUT SHOULD BE LONG GONE BY MID MORNING. VCSH WAS HELD AT WACO
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY SHIFT LIGHT NW WITH THE FRONT...BEFORE
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO THE NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.

05


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY HAS BECOME ONE OF A STRONG
UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PLACES NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN A
GENERAL LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT DOMINATED MOSTLY BY
UPPER DIFFLUENCE...THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID
NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRY TO CONNECT WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK

AT THIS WRITING...THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AND WILL MOVE STEADILY THROUGH I-20 THIS MORNING. AS IT
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES...IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN STALL
EITHER OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OR JUST SOUTH OF THERE FOR
THE NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AROUND THE FRONT TODAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

THE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND PREVAILING
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
SLOW AND LIMITED NEXT WEEK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION
ON ANY ONE DAY NEXT WEEK. SO LEFT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ON TUESDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. 75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  68  91  71  93 /  20  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              87  67  91  69  94 /  40  20  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             87  67  88  68  91 /  10   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            87  65  90  67  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          87  64  89  67  92 /  10  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            89  69  92  73  94 /  20  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           88  68  90  68  92 /  20  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         88  68  90  71  92 /  40  20  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            86  67  91  69  93 /  50  20  10  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  65  89  65  94 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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