Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 302333
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT TALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. DRIER AIR HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO ITS SOUTH. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY MANAGE TO CREEP
NORTHWARD INTO THE WACO TAF SITE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS POTENTIAL
WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE. WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS TO VSBYS AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT THIS TIME. RAIN AND POSSIBLY A MENTION OF THUNDER WILL
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGES.

STALLEY

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S CONVECTIVE
OUTBREAK CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS. SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA IS HELPING TO BREAK OUT THE STRATUS THAT/S BEEN
AROUND ALL DAY. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND SOME WET
SOILS AROUND MAY LEND TO SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS PREVALENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NOW OVER LAS VEGAS NV IS
LITERALLY ROTATING IN A FUJIWARA FASHION WITH THE OLD LOW NOW
MOVING NORTH OVER NEBRASKA...ALL WITHIN THE BROADER LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM OVER LAS VEGAS WILL BEGIN TO TURN EAST AND MOVE
ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
INTO TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES AND AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS SOUTHEAST OF GATESVILLE TO ATHENS LINE LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY. HAIL...DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE HIGHS
WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PRESENT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE SOMEWHAT
ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL COOL SECTOR...SO ANY STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WARRANT ANY FLOOD WATCHES EAST OF I-35...BUT ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES ON
THE BRAZOS/TRINITY/AND SABINE RIVER BASINS. LOWS MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S NORTHWEST
AND THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. AS THIS SECOND UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE RICHER. LOW
CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

THE CURRENT AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT FINALLY APPEARS TO
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE REST OF THIS COMING WEEK. A FULL
LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE PLAINS WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEK AHEAD. THIS IS GOOD
NEWS FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT NEED TIME TO DRY OUT
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING LATER NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK OF MAY 7TH. MANY DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS MODELS USUALLY STRUGGLE MIGHTILY WITH
TRACK...TIMING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEYOND 120 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO RECOVER HERE AND GET MORE
DATA INTO MODELS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AFTER MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEK.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    58  75  59  69  55 /   5   5  60  30   5
WACO                59  77  58  71  56 /   5  20  60  30  10
PARIS               57  76  56  70  54 /  10   5  60  20   5
DENTON              54  74  55  68  52 /   0   5  50  30   5
MCKINNEY            56  75  56  68  53 /   5   5  60  30   5
DALLAS              59  76  59  70  56 /   5   5  60  30   5
TERRELL             58  77  58  71  55 /   5  10  60  40  10
CORSICANA           60  78  60  72  56 /  10  20  60  40  10
TEMPLE              61  78  60  72  56 /  10  20  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS       54  73  55  69  51 /   5  10  50  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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