Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 181731
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1231 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIRMASS
WILL BECOME UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMP
IS IN THE MID 90S. OVERALL BEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF METROPLEX TAF SITES BUT A FEW STORMS MAY POP UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO IMPACT OPERATIONS. WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 20-23Z. FOR
WACO...A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TEMPO TSRA AND VCTS WILL
BE ADVERTISED THERE AS WELL. TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV ROTATING EAST
OF SAN ANGELO WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF A CISCO
TO COMANCHE LINE. NORTH TEXAS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
ASCENT AS NOTED IN MORE TOWERING MID LEVEL CU FIELD AND EVEN A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR TODAY WILL BE THE REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
THAT SURGES OUTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE THINKING IS THAT THIS
OUTFLOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY PROVIDING A LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LAYER OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL RAISE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PLAYING A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK
VORTICITY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT SITS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LINKING YESTERDAY/S MCV OVER THE
ARKLATEX WITH A SECOND MCV SITTING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAIN/HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. PWATS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING AS NOTED BY THE 3/4 OF AN INCH DROP OFF IN PWAT VALUES. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 1.65 INCHES FROM 2.35 OF PWAT YESTERDAY
MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CONVERGENT
AND WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
MEANS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CASE STORM OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OR THE SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATES BACK NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO WANE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHEAR AXIS EXITS THE AREA.

FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF STATES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTROL REGIONAL
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  78  98  78  98 /  40  20   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  98  75  98 /  50  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             97  72  96  73  96 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            97  74  99  74  98 /  30  10   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  74  97  74  97 /  30  10   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  98  78  98 /  40  20   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  75  98  76  98 /  30  20   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  76  98 /  40  20   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  98  74  98 /  40  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  99  73  97 /  30  20  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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