Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 270838
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS REGION ON THIS MORNING/S WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING TROUGH IN
LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS HAS LED TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN THE RESULT...WITH SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ALREADY 10 TO 20 MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALL
DAY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH...WITH 30 MPH
GUSTS LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW DECOUPLES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND KANSAS. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE THE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG
THIS LINE...WITH MERELY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN
THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER.

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...COUNTIES WEST OF I-35 WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE AND HAVE
THE LEAST PROBABILITY OF SEEING PRECIPITATION. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN FARTHER WEST ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.

SUBSIDENCE IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SHORT PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN
AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...BUT HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE 27/00Z RUN.
STILL...IT ALONG WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE 20
POPS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY.

THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL SEND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH INTO THE GULF...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY SEE BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TRANSITIONS EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE
DFW AREA THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WACO AREA FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 00Z TAFS...SO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
HAS BEEN APPENDED BELOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS IS LIKELY AT WACO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THE DFW AREA TAFS FOR STRATUS POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT MOST STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
DFW AREA AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT DFW AREA TAF SITES...WHILE WACO MAY SEE SOME EARLY
MORNING MVFR STRATUS TOMORROW.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION GENERALLY SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THE PERSISTENCE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME SHALLOW GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH IN THE FORM OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. AT THIS TIME MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
STRATUS WILL BUILD OVER THE WACO AREA...BUT STAY JUST EAST OF DFW
AREA TAF SITES DUE TO VEERED WINDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JUST
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. IF STRATUS BUILDS FARTHER WEST THAN
EXPECTED...WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE 2-3 HOURS OF MVFR STRATUS OVER DFW
AREA TAF SITES IN FUTURE FORECASTS OR AMENDMENTS. THE STRATUS
BEARING LAYER LOOKS VERY SHALLOW IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
HEATING MONDAY MORNING.

CAVANAUGH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  66  75  57  74 /   5  10  20  10  10
WACO, TX              84  65  80  60  75 /   5   5  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             83  63  72  54  72 /   5  20  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            85  62  75  54  74 /   5  10  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          84  64  74  55  73 /   5  10  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            85  66  75  58  75 /   5  10  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  65  75  58  74 /   5  10  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         84  65  79  60  74 /   5   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            85  64  80  61  75 /   5   5  10  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  60  75  53  75 /   5  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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