Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 212031
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016
Currently, a broad surface ridge of high pressure extended from
South Texas to the Great Lakes. In the mid-upper levels, a deep
longwave trough was moving east into the Mid-Atlantic states and
New England, with a high pressure ridge over the Southwest U.S.
In between these features, strong northwest flow was streaming
across North-Central Texas with a dry airmass in place and
temperatures currently in the 70s.
The current surface high pressure ridge will move slowly toward
the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf of Mexico through
early Saturday. Despite winds gradually veering light southerly
over areas west of I-35, strong radiational cooling conditions
will set up once again across the area with dew point temperatures
in the 30s and 40s. Overnight low temperatures should fall into
the 40s across all but the immediate urban heat island areas of
the D/FW Metroplex.
Despite the cool start to the day Saturday, strong insolation
will work upon the dry airmass for temperatures to recover nicely
to between 75 and 80 degrees by Saturday afternoon. A shortwave
disturbance is forecast to settle over the Big Bend area of West
Texas Saturday night and Sunday, which shunts the upper level
high over North-Central Texas. Plentiful insolation will continue
with southerly winds picking up within an increasing pressure
gradient and highs warming to around 80 degrees. The West Texas
shortwave will slowly move east across the area late Sunday night
into Monday. Low level moisture return is expected as this system
arrives, but any depth of quality moisture will be too shallow for
any convective potential with just an increase in clouds expected.
Tuesday will be warm, breezy, and humid, but with zero rain
chances with the area under the influence of a shortwave ridge.
A few sprinkles may occur with the increasing warm advection
late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but nothing worth
mentioning in the forecast at this time. A shortwave will move
across the Central Plains and break down the upper ridge north of
I-20 on Wednesday, while a surface cold front moves into Oklahoma
and Northwest Texas. The cold front will slide across the Red
River Valley before stalling around or north of I-20. Moisture
convergence along the frontal boundary will be sufficient enough
in conjunction with prime daytime heating, high instability and
forcing from the shortwave for a few showers and thunderstorms
across areas north of I-20 Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Instability and 0-6km bulk shear values of 35-40 kts would be
sufficient for strong to possibly severe storms across our
northern counties. However, variables this far out can change from
model run to model run. We prefer to see consistency amongst the
models beyond Day 5 before hanging our hat on the potential for
any severe weather.
Any convective chances will be brief and likely end overnight
Wednesday, as the shortwave moves away and the stationary front
moves back north out of the area as a warm front on Thursday.
Strong lee side surface pressure falls week with high pressure
overhead will maintain breezy and above normal temperatures next
Thursday/Friday and into into the last weekend of October.
/ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with
light northeast winds today becoming southerly overnight. South
flow will increase to 10 kt during the day Saturday. No
significant aviation concerns expected through the period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 50 76 56 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 42 79 51 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 44 76 51 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 42 75 53 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 43 73 53 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 50 76 56 80 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 44 75 51 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 46 78 51 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 43 79 51 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 43 79 51 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 0