Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 140512
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1212 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE BEEN TRICKY THIS EVENING...WANDERING IN AND OUT WITH
SATELLITE NOT HELPING MUCH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AND WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF MVFR THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. CIGS MAY DROP BELOW 020 BETWEEN NOW AND 9Z FOR
METROPLEX SITES...AND THEN POSSIBLY CLEAR OUT TOWARD MORNING. ANY
CLEARING WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT FOG AND/OR REDEVELOPMENT OF CIGS.
THUS...GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO PREVAIL BUT CIGS/VSBY WILL NOT
HOLD CONSTANT WITH PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON TRENDS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FORECAST.

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO TONIGHTS FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE POPS FOR
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 10PM. SMALL PATCHES OF LIGHT
SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT NOTHING
SHOULD BE MEASURABLE.  75

&&


.SHORT TERM/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE NOTED
ON THE 12Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING BETWEEN 775-950MB. SOME THINNING OF
THE CLOUD CANOPY WAS NOTED WITH MID LEVELS DRYING OUT SOME BUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN
THIS EVENING...AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR
SPORTING EVENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH A LIGHT JACKET MAY BE
NEEDED AS TEMPERATURES COOL SLOWLY BACK DOWN. WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE MID LEVELS HAS INDUCED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH
REGARD TO RAINFALL AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL.

THE UPPER HIGH BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDINESS...WEAK WAA AND WINDS RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD
HELP MIX THE LOW LEVELS A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING
TO BETWEEN 80 AND 85 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE RED RIVER INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY AND HELP INCREASE THE
WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BACKDOOR INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING. NEVERTHELESS...COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.75-2 INCHES. IN
ADDITION TO THE WEAK FRONT...ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO A DIFFLUENT FLOW
REGIME OVER THE AREA. DESPITE JUST THE SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS...
WE HAVE RAISED POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TRIMMING RAIN CHANCES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST. LIKE PREVIOUS EVENTS...
RAINFALL WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD BUT SCATTERED IN NATURE. SOME
LOCALES COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHILE OTHERS MISS
OUT.     05/

&&

.LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND/...
MODELS AGREE ON AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES KEEPING THE
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST AND EXTENDED THEM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP SOME RAIN
CHANCES AROUND FOR THURSDAY WITH A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE. WILL JUST LEAVE SILENT
10 POPS IN THE FCST FOR NOW DUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN OUR AREA.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT SETS IN AFTER WEDNESDAY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THE WESTERN RIDGE AS WELL AS THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THE GFS...BEING MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES...IS BY FAR THE
SLOWEST SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC/CANADIAN ARE MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS INDEED MORE ACCURATE IN ITS HANDLING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS DOES SEEM TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION REGARDING TEMPS WHICH UNDERCUTS THE GFS AND KEEPS HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION TO
INTRODUCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS
IN THE COMING DAYS.       STALLEY

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  80  70  87  71 /   5   5  10  10  30
WACO, TX              60  82  69  90  70 /  10   5  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             57  75  64  84  66 /   0   5  10  20  30
DENTON, TX            58  78  67  88  69 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          58  78  65  86  67 /   5   5  10  10  30
DALLAS, TX            62  80  70  87  71 /   5   5  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX           60  79  67  87  69 /   5   5  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         63  83  69  89  70 /  10   5  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            59  83  68  91  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  79  67  88  68 /   5  10  10  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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