Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191534
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1034 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.UPDATE...
A vigorous upper level disturbance continues to slide across West
Texas late this morning...helping induce ascent over the central
and eastern portions of the state. The back edge of the large rain
shield which impacted all of North and Central Texas overnight has
now reached a Bonham-Dallas-Cisco line as of 10 am. Persistence
and short-term guidance both suggest the bulk of the rain will be
east of our forecast area in the 3-4 pm timeframe, though the
presence of residual lift, moisture and instability will promote
some scattered shower activity in many areas through the end of the
afternoon. We`ll hold onto high PoPs mainly east of I-35 and
south of I-20 this afternoon, but trim values back quite a bit
elsewhere. Will probably also make a few downward adjustments to
tonight`s PoPs in most areas.

Temperatures remain remarkably (and pleasantly) cool for the
latter half of May, with afternoon readings remaining in the 60s
just about everywhere. Am inclined to trim highs back to the mid
60s from the Metroplex southward through Waco into Killeen, which
would represent record low maximum conditions for this date. Enjoy
`em!

Bradshaw

&&


.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 731 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/
/12Z TAFS/

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are moving across North and
Central Texas this morning although the heaviest of the rainfall
is located south of Waco in the Temple/Killeen areas. As the upper
disturbance continues to move northeast...the precipitation should
end from west to east later today.

For the Metroplex TAF sites...prevailing rain and thunderstorms
will continue for another 1-2 hours before tapering off. There may
be some additional light rain through midday but most of the
precipitation should be done by 18z. IFR cigs will prevail most of
the morning...although there is some temporary improvement to the
west just behind the precipitation shield. Any improvements in
cigs should be short lived with MVFR cigs prevailing through early
evening. Tonight...IFR cigs/vis are expected into Friday morning.
As the upper trough passes east of the area...winds will become
more southeasterly by late morning and we should see significant
improvement in conditions.

For the Waco area...rain and thunderstorms will prevail a little
longer through the day today. Will have precipitation in through
mid afternoon with some improvement by that time. Similar to
farther north...IFR conditions expected tonight with improvement
by late Friday morning.

Dunn


&&




.SYNOPSIS...

One more active day of weather is expected before a brief break in
the rain and storm chances heading into the weekend. Widespread
showers and storms are expected today, especially this morning,
with the main concerns being heavy rain and potentially some
localized flooding across Central TX. All activity should come to
an end tonight leaving a quiet and warmer start to the weekend.
Storm chances will return next week with another active pattern
resulting in chances for more showers and storms nearly every day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Setup:
A stalled frontal boundary in south Texas will remain in place
this afternoon, resulting in strong isentropic ascent over the
cooler surface airmass which overspreads North and Central TX. In
addition, our right entrance location relative to the upper level
jet combined with dynamic forcing from the approaching shortwave
trough will lead to enhanced large-scale vertical ascent over the
region today. PW values of up to 1.75" will be in place across
Central TX with skinny CAPE owing to the moist adiabatic nature of
temperature profiles. Efficient rainfall will be possible with all
thunderstorms especially across Central TX this afternoon.

Latest guidance continues to speed up the eastward progression of
this system which should help to ease the widespread heavy
rainfall amounts. However, some localized flooding issues may
occur across our southern areas this afternoon if any cell training
manages to occur. At this time, do not expect flooding issues to
be widespread at all, and will not be issuing a Flash Flood Watch
for any of our counties.

Discussed yesterday was the low potential of severe storms across
our extreme southern areas this afternoon if the stalled front was
able to lift as far north as the Hearne/Centerville area. This
scenario will not materialize today and severe weather anywhere in
our CWA is unlikely. Showers and storms will remain elevated, and
the skinny nature of CAPE profiles and modest lapse rates will
prevent any hail threat. Heavy rain and localized flooding remain
the main concerns today, and of course cloud-to-ground lightning
with any thunderstorms.

Timing:
An active radar depiction this morning shows a swath of showers
and thunderstorms approaching the area from West TX. Most of North
and Central TX will receive rain and thunderstorms this morning as
this activity continues progressing eastward. Activity across
North TX should be tapering off from west to east by early
afternoon, but widespread showers and storms are likely to
continue into the afternoon and evening hours across most of
Central TX. All activity should be completely out of our area by
early Friday morning at the latest.

Amounts:
The bulk of the rain should fall across areas south of a
Stephenville to Canton line with rainfall totals of 1-3" inches
expected by tonight. Some very localized higher amounts may be
possible if cell training occurs, in which the most favorable
locations would be south of a Killeen to Palestine line. The
quicker shot of rain that North TX will receive this morning
should only result in rainfall amounts averaging around an inch.

Another note today, as mentioned yesterday, is the temperature
forecast. Have continued to side with the coolest guidance keeping
highs in the low 60s to low 70s area-wide which may wind up not
being cool enough if overcast skies hold through the entire day.
This would likely mean some near-record "lowest maximum"
temperatures would occur today if skies stay mostly cloudy or
overcast for most of the day. If any clearing occurs behind the
wave of storms this morning in north Texas, temperatures may
quickly climb above the current forecast values to near 70
degrees. There is a high bust potential with the temperature
forecast this afternoon. DFW`s record low max today is 68F and
Waco`s is 71F.

&&

.LONG TERM...

Friday is shaping up to be a more pleasant day with subsidence and
upper ridging in place. Temperatures will rebound into the 70s
and low 80s across the area as skies gradually clear from the deck
of low stratus expected through early Friday morning. The warming
trend will continue Saturday as we remain between storm systems
with highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 80s.

The next chances for rain and thunderstorms will return to the
forecast on Sunday evening as strong moisture transport ensues
ahead of a dryline positioned across western TX. We may be looking
at several days of dryline convection next week, but the bulk of
the large scale forcing is currently progged to stay north of the
area. With high surface dewpoints, steep lapse rates, and moderate
shear, isolated strong to severe storms seem to be possible each
day. Most of the forecast details will be built upon on the
mesoscale features for the first half of next week, but it is too
far into the forecast period to be able to assess these details
accurately.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  61  79  64  87 /  70  30  10   5   5
Waco                66  60  79  61  87 /  80  40  10   5   5
Paris               67  59  76  60  83 /  70  40  20   5   5
Denton              66  58  77  59  85 /  70  30  10   5   5
McKinney            66  58  77  59  85 /  70  30  10   5   5
Dallas              67  61  79  64  87 /  70  30  10   5   5
Terrell             66  60  78  62  87 /  70  40  10   5   5
Corsicana           67  61  78  64  87 /  80  40  10   5   5
Temple              67  61  80  62  86 /  80  40  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       66  58  78  59  85 /  70  30  10   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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