Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241140
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING VFR FORECAST FOR
ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS...LIMITING CHANCES
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE WACO AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS IS
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF KACT PROPER...SOME BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR (BKN009)
CIGS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. ANY SCT-BKN CONDITIONS THAT
DO DEVELOP AT WACO SHOULD LIFT AND LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 16Z.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A PERSISTENTLY HOT AND DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN HOT
AND DRY FOR AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH OF JULY...MOST
OF NORTH TEXAS HAS YET TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. LESS THAN A
HANDFUL OF OUR AUTOMATED AIRPORT AND CLIMATE SITES REACHED 100
DEGREES YESTERDAY...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THAT NUMBER WILL CLIMB
SOME TODAY AND TOMORROW. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE TRIPLE DIGITS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND BUT MORE SITES HAVE A CHANCE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 97-102 RANGE WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 RANGE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NUDGE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES OFF A
FEW DEGREES AND LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE REGION BELOW 100 DEGREES.
WHILE MOST PEOPLE WILL HARDLY NOTICE THIS 1-3 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES...MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
NORTH FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER OUR REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
BRING A FRONT INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WOULD NOT BE DRASTICALLY COOLER BUT
IT COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION. THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE A FRONT BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION DUE
TO THE WEAKENING RIDGE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  80 100  81  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76 100  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             98  76  99  76  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  78 100  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          98  78  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX           100  81 101  82 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  76  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  76  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  77  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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