Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201625 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017


.UPDATE...
Primarily cosmetic changes made to the going forecast this morning
to account for temperature and dewpoint trends. Air temperatures
this hour are running near or just above where they were 24 hours
ago, and a touch of warming around 850 mb noted on our morning
sounding will support high temperatures a degree or two above what
we measured on Wednesday. As temperatures rise, dewpoints will
gradually begin to fall as mixing chews away at the near-surface
moist layer. Dewpoints will remain highest along and east of I-35,
which will result in heat index values rising into the 105-107
degree range by early this afternoon (many locations are already
reporting heat index readings of 100 degrees at this hour).

Daytime cumulus will dot the skies today, but subsidence around
the mid-level high anchored across Oklahoma will keep convection
at bay. Can`t entirely rule out a stray shower within the theta-e
max across our east and southern counties, but we`ll keep PoPs at
or below 10% today. Updated products have been transmitted.

Carlaw

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 641 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/
12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None major. VFR with south flow.

VFR will continue over the next 24 to 30 hours across North and
Central TAF sites. The mid-level ridge should remain entrenched
across the region such that precipitation chances remain low.

24-Bain

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 325 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

/Today and Tonight/

The main weather headline over the next 24 hours will be the
summertime heat across a good portion of North and Central TX. The
hot conditions combined with sufficient low level moisture will
result in dangerous heat which has prompted the issuance of a Heat
Advisory for the eastern half of North and Central TX.

Surface analysis this morning revealed that low level moisture
was beginning to slowly slosh back towards the northwest in
response to light southerly/southeasterly winds. The mid-level
ridge in place across Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle is
expected to remain anchored across the region. This should limit
the potential for any showers or storms over the next 24 hours. While
I can`t completely rule out a rogue shower or two beneath the H5
ridge, it`s unlikely to persist long enough to warrant inclusion
of appreciable PoPs/Wx in the worded forecast. For now, I`ll carry
a 5 to 10 PoP across the area.

With regards to the heat---Thursday afternoon max apparent
temperature values will be greatest generally east of I-35 and
north of I-20. I am most confident that these areas will likely
experience several hours with heat index values near and above 105
degrees. Deeper mixing farther west should result in dewpoints
falling into the mid-60s, keeping these areas below 105 degree
heat indices. Finally, across Central TX, the prospects of
exceeding 105 degree heat indices this afternoon will be a bit on
the marginal side. However, there is increasing confidence that
Heat Advisory criteria will be met Friday and Saturday. As a
result, we`ve opted to include them in the current Heat Advisory.

24-Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 325 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

/Friday through Wednesday/

Little change to the extended forecast with hot and mostly dry
conditions expected into next week. The only exception will be
over the latter half of the weekend as a mid level low moves
westward across the northern Gulf and into southeast Texas. Weak
forcing for ascent will spread into a moist and unstable
environment Sunday afternoon. This will occur as a stronger
shortwave trough swings through the upper Midwest, effectively
displacing the upper ridge somewhat farther to the west. This
should allow some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
Sunday afternoon, mainly across our eastern counties where
moisture will be concentrated. In addition, a weak front may slide
southward into Oklahoma Sunday night and will likely be a focus
for thunderstorm development. We`ll maintain some 20 PoPs into
Monday mainly north of I-20 to account for any isolated activity
that may develop in the vicinity of this remnant boundary.
Otherwise, it looks like the upper ridge will build back across
the Plains into next week keeping temperatures in the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  81  99  80  98 /  10   5   0   0   5
Waco                99  78  98  77  98 /  10   5   0   0  10
Paris               96  76  96  75  95 /  10   5   0   5   5
Denton              99  79  98  78  98 /  10   5   0   0   5
McKinney            98  77  96  77  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
Dallas              99  82  99  81  99 /  10   5   0   0   5
Terrell             97  76  96  77  96 /  10   5   0   0   5
Corsicana           98  77  96  77  96 /  10   5   0   5  10
Temple              99  77  99  76  98 /  10   5   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       98  76  98  76  98 /   5   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$

90/82



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