Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 112134
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
334 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
It`s been yet another day featuring highly anomalous warmth and
strong southwesterly winds today. We`re within a whisper of
another record high temperature at DFW (83 in 1911), with the
record appearing safe at Waco (84 in 1905). Sustained wind speeds
near and east of the I-35 corridor have been in the 25-30 mph
range this afternoon, with gusts approaching 40 mph at times. RAP
analysis depicts 35-45 kts of flow remains in place at 925 mb, and
momentum transfer will continue for the next few hours resulting
in wind advisory-criteria winds being met across portions of our
CWA, effectively along and east of I-35 through 6 PM.

Tonight, moisture will continue to migrate northward, with an axis
of 1"+ PWATs creeping across our easternmost counties. Some warm
advection-facilitated showers will be possible here, but coverage
should be spotty at best. Low clouds will also develop within
this zone, but elevated winds in the 25-35 kt range atop the
cooling boundary layer should significantly curtail any widespread
fog development. It`s conceivable some patchy fog may develop
across our southwestern zones where the low-level flow will remain
weaker, but confidence in this was too low to warrant inclusion
in the gridded forecast.

As additional moisture arrives on Thursday, isolated showers and
perhaps an embedded thunderstorm will be possible as the morning
stratus deck slowly mixes out. Widespread storms are not in the
cards, however, as a stout capping inversion at around 800 mb--
reinforced by southwesterly winds aloft--will remain in place. As
a result, precipitation chances on Thursday appear very low, and
will only be advertising 20% PoPs across most of the region.

By late Thursday morning our next cold front, which is currently
plunging southward towards the Oklahoma/Kansas border, should be
spilling across the Red River into our far northwestern counties.
As has been the case all winter, these shallow arctic intrusions,
characterized by frontal inversion depths of 1 kft or less, have
been well handled by the NAM. This case appears no different. As a
result, we`ve actually closely followed the NAM and high-
resolution output for this forecast regarding frontal timing
Thursday and into Friday. The air behind this front won`t be
tremendously cold, but lows will likely fall into the upper 30s
across the northwest Thursday night.

Thursday night and through Saturday...
As a subtle shortwave approaches and warm advection increases
down low, showers and a few storms will begin to blossom along and
north of this front, which should be stalling around a Comanche
to Waxahachie to Sulphur Springs line (potentially even a bit
farther south). Lift won`t be overly strong at this point, so
we`ll cap PoPs at 60% across the north and western counties with
chances decreasing precipitously south of I-20 during this time
frame. QPF amounts should overall be pretty light, generally in
the half inch to one inch range with some locally higher amounts
in thunderstorms.

Saturday night into Sunday morning...
This period may actually feature a brief lull in activity as a
deep upper-level low begins to eject eastward towards Chihuahua
Mexico. Increasing southerly flow should help send the stalled
front north of the Red River, leaving us with just slight chance
to chance PoPs.

Sunday afternoon through Monday night...
This period looks to feature the highest potential for widespread
heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and flooding concerns. The model
consensus ejects the aformentioned upper low into the Texas
Panhandle which will ultimately result in the eastward advancement
of a cold front through North and Central Texas. Widespread
showers and storms will be developing into a very moisture-rich
airmass, characterized by PWATs near 3 standard deviations above
normal and respectably deep warm cloud layers around 10 kft. The
severe weather potential during this time still appears low, but
is certainly non-zero. The limiting factor continues to be a lack
of appreciable instability, but we will need to monitor this
closely as this dynamic system will offer up plentiful wind shear,
especially in the lowest 3 km.

Precipitation may be slower to clear out than previously
anticipated with broad troughing lagging well behind the front. As
a result, shower and storm chances may linger into Tuesday across
our region.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/
MVFR ceilings will continue to impact locations along and east of
the Interstate 35 corridor including KDAL and KACT through early
afternoon. Current visible satellite shows that the western edge
of these clouds are beginning to scatter and we expect VFR at all
TAF sites after 21Z. Low clouds will return again tonight when a
35 knot low level jet develops. The jet will not be quite as
strong as it has been the past couple of days so ceilings may be a
bit lower, especially in Waco where some high IFR ceilings are
possible around sunrise. All ceilings will lift and scatter by
mid to late morning Thursday.

Strong and gusty south winds will prevail through the afternoon
with sustained speeds between 16 and 22 knots along with some
gusts around 35 knots. Wind speeds will decrease after sunset but
remain in the 12 to 15 knot range through the night.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  77  53  61  49 /  10  20  30  40  50
Waco                63  76  63  73  55 /  10  20  30  30  30
Paris               63  75  55  66  53 /  20  30  40  50  50
Denton              60  73  46  54  45 /  10  20  40  50  60
McKinney            63  73  51  60  48 /  10  20  40  40  50
Dallas              65  78  56  62  51 /  10  20  30  40  40
Terrell             64  76  58  70  55 /  20  30  30  30  40
Corsicana           65  77  63  75  59 /  20  20  20  30  30
Temple              64  77  63  75  58 /  20  20  30  30  30
Mineral Wells       57  72  48  55  42 /  10  20  40  50  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$

79/90



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