Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 121811 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1211 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018


.AVIATION...
MVFR stratus has spread west to near a KGLE-KCPT-KGOP-KILE line
as of 17z. Satellite imagery shows that the western edge of this
stratus is starting to erode while some thinning is also occurring
over the north. Expect VFR conditions to return to the Metroplex
19-21z and 21-22z at Waco. The clearing skies will be short-lived
as moisture will start to spread back into the region during the
evening and have brought MVFR ceilings back into the TAF sites
03-05z. As the layer saturates, expect ceilings to lower into the
IFR category after daybreak Tuesday. There will be a chance of
showers by 15z and even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible
after 18z Tuesday. For now, have just placed VCSH starting at 15z
at all of the TAF sites. Northeast winds 5 to 8 knots will become
easterly this afternoon.


58

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 546 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018/
Latest satellite imagery continues to show a westward push to the
low clouds from east Texas this morning. The western edge has now
pushed into the I-35 corridor and this trend should continue
through the morning. The moisture is relatively shallow and late
morning mixing should promote some scattering. We`ll update the
forecast to reflect mostly cloudy skies this morning with clearing
by afternoon. Hourly temperatures may be slow to warm this morning
but overall highs should be in fairly good shape.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 307 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

High pressure continues to build into North Texas behind
yesterday`s system that brought some wintry precipitation to the
region. Skies are partly cloudy across North Texas with the
exception of our far eastern counties where a low overcast
persists. The upper disturbance responsible for yesterday`s
precipitation has ejected to the northeast without any real
scouring of the low level moisture across east Texas. IR satellite
imagery shows the low clouds trying to advect westward this
morning and there will be a gradual westward expansion of the low
cloud deck before sunrise. The moisture is still shallow and we
should see some erosion of the low clouds through the day as more
extensive mixing occurs. With the surface high shifting to the
east, a light easterly flow will develop by this afternoon keeping
things cool across North Texas. Highs are likely to top out in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.

By tonight, a deep upper trough will dig into the southwest U.S.
As it does, southerly flow above the surface will strengthen
through the overnight hours. Ample low level moisture already in
place will be lifted northward helping to saturate the low levels
during the overnight hours. This should result in a rapid
northward expansion of low clouds with areas of drizzle or light
showers developing by sunrise, especially across our southern
counties. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees warmer
tomorrow night compared to this morning.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 307 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018/
/Tuesday Onward/

A mostly cloudy and generally warmer week is expected with
occasional rain chances. However, another strong cold front is
expected to arrive early Friday which will take temperatures back
to near or below freezing. This will also mean a low potential
for some wintry weather late Friday or Saturday, but much
uncertainty still exists with this next system.

Low clouds will have overspread much of the area Tuesday morning
with abundant low-level moisture returning to the region. Weak
ascent from low-level warm advection should prompt some light rain
developing through the early morning, but temperatures are
expected to be above freezing during this time. Throughout the
day, an increase in rain showers is expected as lift increases and
gains access to some steeper lapse rates. Latest guidance
suggests there will be enough MUCAPE around for some elevated
thunderstorm potential. Have increased PoPs and expanded them
westward from previous forecasts. Cloudy skies should hold high
temperatures in the upper 40s or low 50s with warm advection in
the near-surface layer remaining relatively weak. Later Tuesday
night, any convection should be winding down, but another surge of
low-level moisture will likely cause some drizzle or light rain
to develop. Some fog is also possible through Wednesday morning,
especially west of I-35 as surface dewpoints surge into the 50s
while encountering cooler surface air.

Dewpoints will continue to climb on Wednesday along with the
temperatures as warm advection ramps up through the lowest few
kft. Occasional showers will be possible beneath a stout capping
inversion around 700mb, but widespread rainfall is fairly
unlikely. Cloudy and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail
into Thursday. Since dewpoints will have climbed into the low 50s
or 60s by Thursday morning, that`s also where our low temperatures
will remain. Low-level winds will be on the increase through the
day ahead of a deep trough that will be digging into the Central
Plains and its associated surface low developing in Kansas. This
will mean a windy, warm, and humid Thursday with high temperatures
10-20 degrees above normal (in the mid 70s to low 80s) despite
the mostly cloudy skies.

By Thursday night, the trough and surface low will plow eastward,
and the attendant cold front will be approaching North Texas. At
the moment, the front is progged to arrive in the neighborhood of
daybreak Tuesday, although would not be surprised if this timing
sped up a bit over the coarser long-range model solutions in
future forecasts. Chances for rain will increase as this front
encounters plentiful moisture overspreading the Southern Plains,
and a cold rain is likely in vicinity of the front and immediately
behind it. At this point, operational model runs and a vast
majority of their ensemble brethren shut down precipitation prior
to the arrival of sub-freezing surface air. As a result, much of
Friday and Friday night should feature a cold rain with
temperatures falling into the 40s or 30s by the evening as
precipitation wanes. However, should any lift still be available
through Friday night or Saturday morning, a brief period of
freezing rain would be possible across North Texas where
temperatures are expected to fall below freezing. Have not
included this in the forecast right now as it does not represent
the most likely scenario, but it will need to be monitored through
the week.

Following the Friday/Saturday system, another quick turnaround to
southerly flow and warmer temperatures is expected through Sunday
and into early next week. Moisture is forecast to quickly return
which could lead to some higher rain chances again in the
Monday/Tuesday time frame as a fairly active pattern persists.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    43  36  51  45  68 /   0   0  40  30  20
Waco                44  37  52  46  69 /   0  10  50  30  20
Paris               46  32  48  43  65 /   0   0  50  50  40
Denton              45  34  50  44  70 /   0   0  30  30  20
McKinney            43  33  49  43  67 /   0   0  40  40  20
Dallas              43  37  51  46  68 /   0   5  50  40  20
Terrell             42  35  52  45  67 /   0  10  50  50  30
Corsicana           43  38  51  46  67 /   0  20  50  50  30
Temple              46  39  52  46  68 /   0  10  50  30  20
Mineral Wells       49  34  51  44  72 /   0   0  30  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/30



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