Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 161750 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail with south flow.

As on Friday, this morning`s stratus was long gone by midday,
owing to the persistent dry air above the nocturnal boundary. A
veered and weaker low-level jet late tonight should limit the
extent of MVFR ceilings Sunday morning. There will likely be some
strands of CU below FL020, but no significant impacts are
expected.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 330 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

The upper level ridge has now shifted slightly east while a
potent upper level disturbance moves across the northern portions
of the Rockies. The upper level ridge will remain positioned just
southeast of the region and continue to control the weather in our
area. It will be another seasonably warm day for most of North
and Central Texas with high temperatures in the 90s. Even with a
front moving down the Plains, the pressure gradient will relax a
little today, and wind speeds will be slightly lower, but wind
gusts of 15-20 mph will still occur, especially along and west of
I-35. Morning stratus across Central Texas and parts of North
Texas will mix out to mostly sunny skies and some high clouds for
the remainder of the day. Convection will continue to the west and
northwest where southwest flow aloft will prevail and several
weak disturbances will travel. There`s a small chance that an
isolated shower may move into our west and/or northwest counties
through the evening hours, and will carry a silent 10 PoP for
today.

For the overnight period, dry weather is expected with low
temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Occasional wind gusts
near 15 mph will continue along and east of I-35. Stratus will
again return across mostly Central Texas, but also moving into
parts of North Texas before daybreak.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017/
North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of an
upper ridge, which will extend from the Western Gulf to the Ohio
Valley on Sunday, with a broad trough situated across the Western
CONUS. The trough will begin to deepen on Monday as a strong
shortwave drops southeast across the Pacific Northwest. This will
cause the ridge to flatten some, but subsidence should still be
strong enough to prevent convection from developing this far
south. Some storms may get close to the northwestern counties both
Sunday and Monday, but should remain north and west of North
Texas where stronger lift associated with the upper trough will
reside. An exception may be the far southeastern counties where
some afternoon seabreeze activity may occur, so slight chance POPs
are in place Monday afternoon along and south of a line from
Temple to Palestine.

A lee-side cyclone will intensify near the Colorado-Kansas border
on Tuesday as the shortwave swings east into the Northern Plains.
Southerly flow will subsequently intensify across the Southern
Plains and North Texas in response to the strengthening surface
low, drawing a deeper fetch of Gulf moisture north across the
forecast area. Height falls will also occur as the longwave trough
deepens, with zonal flow developing aloft. Increasing moisture and
lower heights should allow for isolated afternoon thunderstorms
and slight chance POPs will be carried area-wide Tuesday.

A second and even stronger piece of energy will drop southeast
across the Northwest CONUS Wednesday and Thursday, deepening the
western trough substantially. This will also amplify the ridge
across the eastern part of the country. This is interesting
because the National Hurricane Center is watching a strong
disturbance several hundred miles east of the Caribbean. The
current upper level pattern would drive the disturbance westward
towards the Lesser Antilles early to mid next week, and a
strengthening ridge across the East Coast and Northwest Atlantic
would possibly drive the tropical disturbance northwestward
towards the Southeast states late next week into next weekend.
This is several days away and much could change but definitely
something to keep an eye on later this month.

Closer to home, a surface front will have approached the
northwestern counties on Wednesday, serving as a focus for
thunderstorm development immediately north and west of the CWA.
POPs will remain conservative at this time, but we will need to
keep an eye on any mesoscale boundaries that might develop and
encroach on the area from the northwest. The boundary will retreat
back to the north Thursday and Friday as the shortwave drops
south and the western trough deepens. Abundant Gulf moisture will
be in place, but without a surface focus, any diurnal convection
that develops will be isolated and disorganized. Hence POPs will
remain conservative Thurs-Fri with 30 across the west (where the
lower heights will be) and 20 across the east.

Though significant model discrepancies exist in days 5-7 and
beyond, there is some indication that the western trough will
begin to move east next weekend. This scenario would likely
involve a cold front, some better rain chances and cooler air as
we head into the first week of Autumn (it`s still far too early to
bank on it but something to watch next week). Otherwise, we will
also keep a close eye on the tropics which continue to be active
and interesting this year.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  74  93  74  94 /   0   0   5   5   5
Waco                94  73  94  72  94 /   5   0   5   5  10
Paris               91  68  91  71  91 /   0   0   5   5  10
Denton              94  71  93  71  94 /   5   5   5   5   5
McKinney            93  71  92  71  93 /   0   0   5   5   5
Dallas              95  74  93  75  95 /   0   0   5   5   5
Terrell             93  70  93  72  94 /   0   0   5   5  10
Corsicana           92  70  93  72  93 /   0   0   5   5  10
Temple              93  73  93  71  92 /   5   5   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       95  70  93  69  93 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/91


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