Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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361
FXUS64 KFWD 252021
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
321 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
As showers and thunderstorms continue across mainly the eastern
half of the region this afternoon, a cold front is racing towards
North Texas. The location of the actual front is muddled among
precipitation in NW Texas but the front is expected to enter our
northwest counties in just a few hours. It will continue to
steadily progress south and southeast tonight bringing cooler and
eventually drier weather to the region. But before we get to the
dry, pleasant weather expected this week, we have some challenging
rain chances/trends to discuss first.

An outflow boundary that has persisted since this morning is still
slowly moving east this afternoon. The outflow boundary stretches
pretty much along where moderate to heavy convection is occurring
to the east of Interstate 35/35E. The steering flow is from the
south which has resulted in training of storms along and near the
boundary for much of the day. This trend is expected to continue
into the evening hours as the boundary continues to push east. The
HRRR indicates weakening of this activity around sunset. Showers
and storms near this boundary have been very efficient rainfall
producers, and where training of cells has occurred, rainfall
totals of 2-4 inches in 1-2 hours have been reported. So far, no
significant flooding issues have been reported. Flash flood
guidance is high because of the dry period we have been in
recently, but minor flooding of low-lying areas, creeks, streams,
and streets/roads will continue to be a threat due to the higher
rainfall rates.

As the front moves through the region this evening and tonight,
expect an increase in rain across the region. The upper level
dynamic forcing is not very strong with an upper level low well
to our west and an upper level ridge to our east. With a
relatively cool and overworked environment in place across North
and Central Texas, and north winds already in place ahead of the
front, confidence is low in how much additional rain activity will
develop with the front. However, moisture content is still high
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s, so at least some
additional rain is expected tonight. Hi-res guidance suggests some
robust cells may occur, potentially aided by a northward moving
shortwave currently near Sonora (south of San Angelo). For the
evening and overnight period, will continue with likely PoPs
across all but the area along the Red River and our far northeast
counties. Rainfall amounts may not be as high overnight as they
have been today, but it does appear much of the area could at
least see light to moderate rain at some point. Additional
rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible overnight with isolated
higher amounts.

Rain chances on Monday are still questionable due to considerable
spread in the guidance, but we anticipate much of the region will
remain dry as the cold front pushes south. North and Central Texas
will be under weak ridging aloft between the upper level low over
Baja California and an upper level trough moving across the
Midwest. While surface dry air will start filtering into the
region, deeper layer dry air will be slower to arrive and some
elevated isolated showers or storms may develop. As the drier air
deepens across the region on Tuesday, it should bring a final end
to any precipitation. For Monday and Monday night, will carry low
chances for rain generally along and south of Interstate 20.

The remainder of the week looks dry and pleasant. Generally north
winds at the surface all the way south into the Gulf of Mexico
will severely limit moisture return through the week. An upper
level ridge will re-establish over the region but the drier air
will keep temperatures pleasant with highs in the 70s and 80s and
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Humidity values will also
remain low with the lack or moisture return.

JLDunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/
A very tricky TAF cycle continues today at all sites as the
pertinent mesoscale details are being handled poorly by recent
high-resolution model guidance. Needless to say, this is a fairly
low confidence forecast, even in the short term.

For the Metroplex: recent radar trends reveal a general reduction
in the most robust cells, with a transition towards more showery
precipitation. It`s possible we pick up some filtered sunshine
through the afternoon hours, and given how moist the environment
is, it won`t take much to spark off additional thunderstorms and
will continue to prevail -SHRA VCTS after 20Z. While winds have
gone light northwesterly behind an outflow boundary, the actual
cold front will not arrive until about 02Z tonight, at which point
wind speeds will increase and most of our thunder chances will
diminish. MVFR cigs will likely accompany the front and will
linger into the morning hours on Monday. A gradual improvement to
low-end VFR cigs should occur through the mid-morning hours on
Monday.

For Waco: outflow has pushed east of the TAF site, taking most of
the shower and thunder activity with it. With breaks in the
clouds, additional scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible through the afternoon hours. Tonight, the cold front
looks to push through around 05-06Z. MVFR and IFR cigs will
develop as the front passes.

Carlaw


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  75  60  79  58 /  60  20  10  10   0
Waco                66  76  59  79  56 /  70  20  20  10   5
Paris               65  77  56  79  55 /  40  10  10   5   0
Denton              63  74  53  77  52 /  60  10  10   5   0
McKinney            64  76  55  78  53 /  60  10  10  10   0
Dallas              66  75  61  81  59 /  60  20  20  10   0
Terrell             66  77  59  79  55 /  60  20  20  10   0
Corsicana           67  78  59  80  58 /  70  20  20  10   0
Temple              66  75  59  77  57 /  70  40  20  10   5
Mineral Wells       61  71  53  76  52 /  70  20  20  10   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

90/82



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