Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180852
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
352 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
North and Central Texas will remain in a very moist and unsettled
weather pattern again today. Although large scale forcing will be
ill-defined today, omega fields indicate broad lift over the
region as we remain on the the western periphery of an upper
ridge. Expect activity this morning to be generally light
stratiform rain with patchy fog. Slightly better forcing will
arrive this afternoon as a weak short wave currently near the Big
Bend moves northeast. The corridor of best precipitation chances
should be a bit farther north than it was on Wednesday. Although
some localized flooding will remain a strong possibility, we feel
the overall flooding threat will be less today since forcing will
be weaker and the most favored area for rain today saw very
little rain yesterday. Therefore, we will cancel the Flash Flood
Watch with the morning forecast package.

Rain chances will decrease this evening/overnight as the shortwave
moves northeast of the region. However, the pattern will not
change much on Friday with additional energy progged to move from
southwest to northeast across the region. The best rain chances
Friday should be across northwest half, generally northwest of a
line from Eastland to DFW to Denison.

The upper pattern will become more amplified the remainder of the
weekend when an upper trough deepens and moves across the
Northern and Central Plains. As the upper trough moves east it
will allow a cold front to move south across the Central Plains on
Saturday. The front should cross the Red River Saturday
Afternoon/Evening and remain over North Texas through Sunday
night. The models differ on the strength of the cold front but
we tend to favor the more aggressive ECMWF solution based on
current surface obs across the Northern Plains. The passage of the
front will bring more chances for rain and thunderstorms with the
best chances north of the Interstate 20 corridor through Sunday. A
few storms could even be strong to marginally severe Saturday
afternoon with moderate instability and shear expected.

The cold front is forecast to lift back to the north Monday and
Tuesday in response to another low pressure system developing
across the western states. Rain chances will decrease from south
to north with the retreating cold front and should remain low
through Wednesday.

Temperatures through early next week will remain below seasonal
normals due to ample cloud cover and precipitation. Expect highs
mainly in the 80s and lows in the lower and middle 70s.
Temperatures should warm back closer to seasonal normals next week
with decreasing clouds and building high pressure aloft.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1145 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/
No major changes from previous TAFs other than to increase the
amount of time that IFR cigs should prevail overnight. DFW
Metroplex airports have been alternating between SCT/BKN clouds
right around FL010 and these should gradually turn onto persistent
IFR cigs in the next few hours. Waco has already been carrying
MVFR/IFR cigs for the better part of the evening and would expect
IFR cigs to prevail overnight as well. Sky conditions should
gradually improve by mid-morning with MVFR/VFR conditions
possible by midday.

The other concern for this set of TAFs is the rain/thunder
potential at all sites on Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated
storms should begin redeveloping in the morning with coverage
increasing by early afternoon. Have included VCSH through most of
the forecast as well as a short period of RA with reduced vsbys on
Thursday afternoon when impacts to airports seem to be the most
likely. Once again there will be sufficient instability for
isolated thunderstorms, but as activity is expected to be
scattered with infrequent lightning, it is not worthy of a mention
in the TAFs at this time. Activity should trend downward Thursday
evening as MVFR cigs redevelop again late Thursday night.

-Stalley


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  74  88  76  87 /  60  40  40  40  60
Waco                86  74  90  76  89 /  60  40  30  30  50
Paris               82  71  87  72  86 /  70  40  50  40  60
Denton              84  72  87  73  87 /  60  40  50  40  60
McKinney            85  73  87  74  87 /  60  40  50  40  60
Dallas              86  75  88  77  87 /  60  40  40  40  60
Terrell             85  73  88  74  87 /  70  40  40  30  60
Corsicana           86  74  89  75  88 /  60  40  30  30  50
Temple              86  73  89  75  90 /  50  40  30  20  40
Mineral Wells       84  71  86  72  88 /  60  40  50  40  50

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/79



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