000
FXUS64 KFWD 142000
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE TRAILING
END OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM NEAR PARIS DOWN TO BETWEEN HOUSTON AND
BEAUMONT. BECAUSE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEARING FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND THE PRESENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ALSO
LINGERED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRANSVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
THE CWA WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
TODAYS MODEL RUNS HOLD A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...IN THAT THE ECMWF/CMC IS EARLIER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONT WHILE THE GFS REMAINS SLOWER AND LINGERS IT LONGER OVER THE
CWA. FOR THIS FORECAST...DECIDED TO USE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS AND WAIT FOR THIS EVENT TO SHOW UP IN
TOMORROWS SREF RUN.

ALSO...NEXT WEEKS SYSTEM COULD BE QUITE WET FOR MANY AREAS AS
PWATS WILL BE HIGH...AND SLOW MOVING CELLS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ECHO TRAINING.

MOS TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED A LITTLE ON SATURDAY FOR CLOUDS...AND
ON TUESDAY DUE TO STORM ACTIVITY AND THE FRONTAL POSITION. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  92  77  95  77 /  20  30  10  10  10
WACO, TX              77  94  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             74  92  73  93  73 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            75  92  75  94  75 /  20  30  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  74  95  75 /  20  30  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            78  94  78  97  78 /  20  30  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           77  93  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         78  95  75  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  93  73  94  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  93  73  96  74 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75