Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 282145
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY WARM TONIGHT WITH
THE FREEZING LINE AT SUNSET ROUGHLY FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO
WEATHERFORD TO GAINESVILLE. WE EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FREEZING LINE WITH
PERIODS OF MAINLY DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO WEATHERFORD TO
MINERAL WELLS AND LET THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE
AT 6 PM FOR ALL OTHER COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE
ADVISORY. THE SNOW COVER TODAY HAS BEEN LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SLOW WARMUP AS EVIDENT BY THE MORE RAPID WARMUP IN THE
COUNTIES THAT SAW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE WINTER PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE OVERALL BUT THE
ADDITION OF EVEN LIGHT ICING TO ALREADY ICY SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE TRAVEL IMPACTS. WE EXPECT THAT ALL SITES WILL WARM TO
FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM PRECIPITATION
FALLING THROUGH IT.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES. STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH AND
50S IN THE SOUTH.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL MAINLY INTO THE 30S AND 40S
BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. LIFT SUPPLIED BY THE COLD FRONT
IN COMBINATION WITH SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC WILL
DEEPEN NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
A SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO INCREASE AT
THE SAME TIME DUE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING WHEN A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BRING MUCH COLDER AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME...THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SLEET
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IF MODEL QPF IS
CORRECT...IT COULD BE MEASURABLE AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT. ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSES TO THE EAST.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

CONCERNS...TIMING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
AND CONTINUATION OF IFR CONDITIONS.

METROPLEX TERMINALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE -FZDZ THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...THEN WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
FORECAST. COLD SURFACE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE METROPLEX
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS FORECAST WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ABOVE
3000 FEET PRODUCES WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE. THE NET RESULT IS LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITH IFR CIGS
AROUND 700 FEET THIS AFTERNOON FALLING INTO THE 200-400 FEET RANGE
OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...AND
IFR TO MVFR VIS THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY 2-3SM OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR VIS TO FALL TO 1SM OR LESS
OVERNIGHT IF THE LIGHT DRIZZLE BECOMES HEAVY. ALSO...EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION TO VARY OFF AND ON WITH A LULL AROUND
DAYBREAK OR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

KACT WILL HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD REACH 32 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY END SOONER AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL SHOULD HAVE NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

KDFW EXTENDED...IFR CIGS/VIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VIS
DEVELOPING NEAR 02/00Z (SUNDAY EVENING). IFR CIGS MAY NOT IMPROVE
UNTIL TUESDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND ON/OFF
ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR FOG. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  42  40  52  52 /  40  40  50  40  50
WACO, TX              35  46  43  55  55 /  40  40  50  40  40
PARIS, TX             32  42  38  41  41 /  50  50  60  50  50
DENTON, TX            33  41  39  47  47 /  40  40  50  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          33  43  39  47  47 /  40  40  50  40  50
DALLAS, TX            33  48  44  52  52 /  40  40  50  40  50
TERRELL, TX           33  45  40  48  48 /  50  50  60  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         36  47  43  56  56 /  50  50  60  50  40
TEMPLE, TX            36  53  45  57  57 /  40  40  50  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  42  34  47  47 /  40  30  40  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ093>095-103>107-118>120-131>134-143>145-156-157.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ091-
092-100>102-115>117-129-130-141-142.


&&

$$

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