Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241659
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO
30 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE BIG
BEND TO THE ARKLATEX. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES WITH A GENERALLY NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
WACO SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 8 KNOTS. THE WIND IN WACO SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT FINALLY GETS A BIT OF A PUSH
SOUTHWARD ONCE THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH WACO
CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE AMENDMENT.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
RESIDE. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
WE WILL KEEP THE 20 POPS IN PLACE FOR ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND BUMP POPS UP A TAD ACROSS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST IF
WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...MAINTAINING LOW RAIN CHANCES. FIRST-PERIOD GUIDANCE IS
LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH PERFECT-PROG PRECIPITATION PLOTS.
SOME OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE POSTFRONTAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALREADY BE ONGOING AT THIS HOUR...THOUGH NONE HAS MATERIALIZED...
EXCEPT FOR ONE CELL IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH WEAK FLOW
ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE TO
INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING.

LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE RATHER ORDINARY...BUT AS
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE NOW IN WEST TEXAS APPROACHES LATE IN THE
DAY...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP. DESPITE NEGLIGIBLE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO
FOCUS INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS DEPICTED IN SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE. THE SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH EAST
TEXAS...WHERE RICHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AS A RESULT
OF THE CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE
INHIBITING RIDGING ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT MINIMAL COVERAGE OVERALL
AS THE WEAK STEERING FLOW LIMITS THE AREA ANY INDIVIDUAL CELL WILL
COVER. BUT IF ENOUGH CELLS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...THE RESULTING OUTFLOW-INDUCED ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY
INCREASE COVERAGE. STILL THINK THE RIDGE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME WITH ONLY WEAK NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FLOW
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE FRONT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFUSE. ALTHOUGH STILL ONLY LOW
CHANCES...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD BE WITHIN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE
SITUATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL THAN SUCH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS MIGHT OTHERWISE SUGGEST IN LATE
AUGUST. STILL THINK EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO WARM AS A
RESULT. DESPITE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 90S...THIS PATTERN MAY
ALLOW FOR MORE PLEASANT DEW POINTS AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  74  94  73  96 /  20  20  20   5   5
WACO, TX             100  75  96  72  98 /  20  20  30   5   5
PARIS, TX             91  68  90  65  95 /  20  20  20   5   5
DENTON, TX            92  71  93  69  95 /  20  20  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  70  93  67  96 /  20  20  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  95  74  96 /  20  20  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           95  73  93  69  96 /  20  20  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  94  71  97 /  20  20  30   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            99  75  97  72  98 /  20  20  30  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  71  93  70  96 /  20  20  20   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/30



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