Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200910
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
410 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Low level warm/moist advection will continue today in response to
a surface low over the northern Texas Panhandle. A strong low
level jet will continue to bring low clouds rapidly northward
through the morning. Even though these clouds will lift through
the day, it will remain mostly cloudy with highs reaching the
80s. It will also be breezy today due to a tightening surface
pressure gradient and daytime mixing of higher momentum air from
above. Wind speeds should remain below wind advisory criteria,
but some gusts around 30 MPH will be likely, especially once
vigorous boundary layer mixing ensues. Any precipitation today
should remain well north of the region in the vicinity of an
approaching cold front which is currently moving through the
Central Plains.

The location of the cold front will become the determining factor
for convection tonight through Friday night. The general
consensus among the models is that the front will remain
nearly stationary tonight just north of the region, awaiting the
passage of an upper trough on Friday night. Convection is expected
to develop tonight across West Texas and Southern Oklahoma as
energy from a fast moving shortwave joins forces with the
mesoscale lift associated with the front. There is a low potential
that a few storms could reach the northwest zones where steep mid
level lapse rates suggest a potential for at least some hail.

The amount of convection that develops north of the region
tonight will have an influence on which side of the Red River the
front ends up on Friday. A possible scenario is that the southern
Oklahoma convection will likely send some rain-cooled air
southward, essentially nudging the front into the northern CWA
Friday morning. If this transpires, it will raise the potential
for severe storms in the north Friday afternoon. There is also a
good chance that the front will not make it into the region until
the upper trough axis passes Friday night. It should also be
noted that the dryline will most likely remain well west of the
forecast area through Friday afternoon and not have any direct
impacts on our weather. With all this in mind, we will keep PoPs
fairly low Friday but will nudge them up slightly along the Red
River and highlight the severe potential in the HWO and graphics.

Storm chances will increase Friday evening/night with the passage
of the front. The best forcing and instability will be across the
northern half of the area. Therefore, storms that organize along
the front should weaken as they move south through the CWA. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the most likely severe weather
hazards. There will also be a potential for locally heavy
rainfall, but the progressive movement of the front should
mitigate any widespread flash flooding threat.

Storms will end quickly Saturday morning as dry and cool air
filter into the region. Breezy conditions and temperatures mainly
in the 60s will make for a cool late April afternoon. A clear sky
and decreasing wind speeds Saturday night will promote efficient
radiational cooling with temperatures reaching the 40s by sunrise
Sunday.

A warming trend is expected to begin Sunday and continue through
the middle of next week. High temperatures the first half of the
work week will be generally in the 80s with even some lower 90s in
the west. Low temperatures will be a bit cool to start the week
but will warm back into the 60s by Wednesday morning.

The medium range models are showing a weak cold front entering
the northern part of the forecast area around mid week with some
very low precipitation chances, but for now we will leave the
forecast dry for next week.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/
Strong low level southerly flow continues to feed the convection
in the Central Plains this evening. Winds have mostly decoupled
across North and Central Texas, but a 35 to 40 KT low level jet
will transport a deck of stratus northward across all TAF
locations during the overnight hours. Patchy MVFR CIGs have
already begun to develop over South Central and Southeast Texas.
These clouds will rapidly increase in coverage and spread north,
likely affecting KACT by 07Z and the Metroplex an hour or so
later. CIGs should mostly be MVFR but will probably drop into IFR
category in the early Thursday morning hours, at least
occasionally. Conditions will improve mid to late morning,
eventually becoming VFR again around the middle part of Thursday
afternoon.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  67  83  55  68 /  10  10  10  70  10
Waco                82  66  81  57  68 /  10  10  10  40  20
Paris               80  64  80  53  64 /  10  10  20  70  10
Denton              82  66  81  52  67 /  10  10  10  70  10
McKinney            80  65  81  54  65 /  10  10  10  70  10
Dallas              83  68  83  56  69 /  10  10  10  70  10
Terrell             81  66  82  56  67 /  10  10  10  70  10
Corsicana           82  66  81  57  67 /  10   5  10  50  20
Temple              83  66  83  58  68 /  10  10  10  30  30
Mineral Wells       84  64  84  52  69 /  10  10  10  50   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/79



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