Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201711
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1211 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS
AND MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTED THAT DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AND THE SKY GRID AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN
FAIRLY UNCHANGED.

HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT STRUGGLED THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND HAVE REDUCED POPS AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. WILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS OUT WEST HOWEVER GIVEN THE MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.


BAIN/TR.92


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 658 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILINGS.

METROPLEX...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BLANKETING AREAS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE AS CLOSE AS GRANBURY AND
CLEBURNE. WINDS WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER HAVE MUCH LESS OF
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THAN THOSE AT THE SURFACE...BUT STILL THINK
THE IFR CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO INVADE THE METROPLEX.

WACO...
THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF...WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS DISRUPTING GA TRAFFIC AT CENTRAL TEXAS AIRPORTS THIS
MORNING. A MORE PERMANENT TRANSITION TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE
MORNING...BUT VFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED...
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE MAY ENSUE AS EARLY AS
MIDDAY SUNDAY.

25


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA PER
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE PACIFIC HURRICANE
ODILE REMAINED STALLED ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS WHERE FLOODING RAINS
WERE OCCURRING. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REMAINED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THETA-E PROGNOSIS INDICATED THE BEST
AXIS OF MOISTURE AT AND BELOW 700MB ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE... LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH UP ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EAST OUT AHEAD OF ODILE/S REMNANTS SHOULD KEEP
FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

NEGLIGIBLE STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ODILE/S REMNANTS
WOBBLING ALONG OVER WEST TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE TODAY AND THE WARMEST...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. MORE CLOUD COVER AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF I-35/I-35 WEST...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
281 FROM JACKSBORO TO LAMPASAS WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 80S. ONLY A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281 AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT CLOSEST TO THE DEEP MOIST AXIS
ANCHORED ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND EXPANDS SUNDAY WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT LACKING. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE 80S FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
THE LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY NEAR ANY
REMNANTS OF THE DISSOLVING FRONT.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST GETS PICKED UP
AND LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD SHOWS WEAK CUT OFF ENERGY
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEST TEXAS WITH RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA THANKS TO THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING ON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER (HIGHS IN THE 80S).

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  74  91  72  89 /  10   5  10  20  10
WACO, TX              90  71  91  71  91 /  20  10  10   5  20
PARIS, TX             90  69  89  67  85 /   5   5  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            90  69  90  69  87 /  10  10  10  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          91  69  90  68  88 /  10   5  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            91  75  91  73  89 /  10   5  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  70  91  70  90 /   5   5  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         92  70  92  71  90 /  10   5  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            91  70  90  71  92 /  20  10  10   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  69  89  69  88 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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