Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 250447
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10KT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT PROBABILITY THAT WACO
WILL SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS EARLY-MID MORNING SATURDAY...BUT THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. TR.92

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO OBSERVE
A BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE OBSERVED ALL AROUND THE DOME OF THIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION. 2PM/19Z TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THIS AFTERNOON`S CONDITIONS
ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE REPEATED EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WILL DFW EVER CLIMB TO 100 DEGREES OR ABOVE? 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS
INDICATED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WAS
JUST ABOUT AS STRONG AS IT IS EXPECTED TO GET THIS MORNING. IF DFW
OBSERVES A HIGH OF 99 TODAY...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THIS
WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE`S
NOTHING OF GREAT SCIENTIFIC INTEREST THAT CHANGES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WHEN THE TEMPERATURE IS 99 VERSUS 100. WHEN OUR DAILY
WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN PRODUCING A HIGH OF 99 EACH DAY...AND
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT...WE END UP
WITH AN IDENTICAL HIGH TEMPERATURE EACH DAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPECTED TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK...DFW WILL
PROBABLY SEE 100 DEGREES SOMETIME BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SIMPLY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE DURING OUR
HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT AHEAD AND FORECAST HIGHS OF 99 OR
100 DEGREES AT DFW FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF
THIS STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN.

ON THURSDAY...THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE REGION AND BECOME
REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OF THE DAY. THIS WILL FAVOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IF NOTHING ELSE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT. IF
THAT OCCURS...SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH IN A THURSDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO JUST KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT NEAR THE RED
RIVER FOR NOW.

FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THIS OCCURS
THINK THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS WELL...BUT STILL IN THE MID
90S. KEPT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO THE INHERENT
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ALMOST ANY ATMOSPHERIC FEATURE 7 DAYS OUT IN
THE FORECAST.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 100  80 100  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              75  98  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             76  99  77  99  76 /   0   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            77 100  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          77  98  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            81 101  81 101  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           76  99  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  99  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  99  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.