Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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297
FXUS64 KFWD 011904 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
104 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.UPDATE...
With dry air in place, temperatures have warmed up a little more
than we had previously expected. Had earlier increased them by a
degree or two. Given the current trends, have bumped up today`s
highs by a category or so across most of the forecast area.
Updates have already been sent.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail with south/southeast winds.

A surface high has pushed east of Texas, and south winds have
returned to the region. Initially, these winds will simply recycle
the continental polar air within the departing high. A plume of
Gulf moisture will be focused into the Hill Country tonight, and
the associated MVFR/IFR ceilings will spread into the Big Country
and Permian Basin. Although the boundary layer along the I-35
corridor will be slow to moisten, southwest flow at 850mb will
allow some of the Gulf moisture to our west to spread across the
area. VFR ceilings should arrive before daybreak Friday morning
and prevail throughout the day. Although there may be a sprinkle
of light rain before sunset, for our TAF sites, the onset of our
anticipated rain event is expected to be Friday evening.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/
After a cold and dry start to the morning with most locations in
the 30s, upper level high pressure will build to the east today and
low level warm air advection will ensue. Afternoon highs will warm
into the 60s under a sunny sky. The increase in low level moisture
will yield a warmer night with lows generally in the 40s.

Big changes will begin to take shape across the western CONUS
Friday with the development of a strong low pressure system.
Initially North and Central Texas will only see an increase in
cloud cover Friday along with a few afternoon showers. Large
scale upward vertical motion will increase Friday night as a 130
knot jet sets up on the east side of a deep upper low centered
over Northern Mexico. Rain will become widespread across the
entire region Friday night through Saturday as large scale and
isentropic lift increase. Mid level instability through the
weekend will be meager and will therefore limit thunderstorm
development. However, an isolated storm or two will still be
possible. The widespread cloud cover and light rain along with a
thin layer of cool air at the surface will result in a very cool
day Saturday with a very small diurnal change in temperatures.
Afternoon highs Saturday will be generally in the 40s and lower
50s.

Rain chances will decrease from northwest to southeast Saturday
night through Sunday as the upper low translates to the east and
displaces the best jet dynamics into South Texas. The upper low
is still forecast by the models to lift northeast across the
region on Monday and bring another chance of rain along with a
slightly better chance of thunderstorms. Precipitation chances
will end from west to east Monday night as large scale subsidence
increases behind the departing upper low.

Tuesday will be a transition day as low level warm air advection
briefly returns in response to another developing western U.S.
low pressure system. This system will remain more progressive
than the weekend system with most of the energy plaguing the
northern half of the country. As the upper trough moves into the
Central Plains Wednesday it will send a strong cold front into
North and Central Texas. The air behind this cold front should be
some of the coldest we have seen this season with lows Wednesday
night most likely falling into the 20s for much of the region.
Since low level moisture will not have much time to move into the
region ahead of the cold front, we will keep PoPs brief and low
Wednesday and end all precipitation chances well before the sub-
freezing temperatures arrive.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  64  48  51  45 /   5  20  70  80  60
Waco                44  63  48  50  46 /   5  30  70  80  70
Paris               39  61  44  48  42 /   5  10  60  80  70
Denton              43  61  45  49  43 /   5  20  70  70  50
McKinney            42  62  46  49  44 /   5  10  60  80  60
Dallas              47  64  48  51  46 /   5  20  70  80  60
Terrell             42  63  47  50  44 /   5  10  70  80  60
Corsicana           44  65  48  51  46 /   5  20  70  80  70
Temple              45  62  48  51  46 /   5  30  70  80  70
Mineral Wells       43  60  45  49  43 /   5  20  70  70  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/58



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