Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 111044
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT ARE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

A BAND OF STRATUS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM DALLAS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OVER WACO PER INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 530 AM. THIS
BAND OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWEST OVER METROPLEX
AREA TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR CIGS. CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST UNDER 2000 FT.
THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER REPRESENTS A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO SCATTER OUT BY
16Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EVEN AS
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE
REGION. A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING AN EARLIER ONSET OF
STRATUS TO AREA AIRPORTS TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD WITH A 06Z ONSET
AT WACO...AND 08Z AT DFW AREA TAF SITES. THESE CIGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM BUT NOT QUITE AS WINDY DAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO COVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARM IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TODAYS TEMPERATURES DUE TO MORE
CLOUD COVER. STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL OCCUR AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS STILL IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND WILL MOVE
INTO CALIFORNIA TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE AN
EASTWARD TRACK RIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SEVERE
PARAMETERS WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
AND ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND SOME CONCERNS THAT LOWER THE
CONFIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

SUNDAYS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL CONSIST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING JUST ABOUT DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION...A SURFACE LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...A DRYLINE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
FIRST AND POSSIBLY MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THE MODELS BRING THE DRYLINE
TO JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 00Z (7 PM) BUT THE NAM HOLDS
THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER. THE MODELS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FORECASTING 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH THE
HIGHEST CAPE NEAR THE DRYLINE...DECENT LAPSE RATES...AND CLOSE TO
50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE.
THE NAM IS HOLDING ONTO A SMALL CAP OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS ERASES THE CAP WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
OVERHEAD. THE CAP WILL BE PRETTY STRONG SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WHICH MAKES THE GFS A LITTLE MORE TENTATIVE TO BELIEVE AND THE NAM
LOOK MORE REASONABLE. ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...MEANING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...THE HODOGRAPHS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGLY CURVED WHICH
INDICATES A TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ASIDE FROM THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP...THE OTHER CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE SPEED OF
THE SHORTWAVE. ALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THEIR SMALL DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO RAISE CONCERN ABOUT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/SREF ALL BRING
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ALREADY HAVE THE DISTURBANCE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 00Z (7 PM). AT
THIS SPEED...THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT WOULD BE FAR AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MAY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING.

GIVEN ALL THE FACTORS STATED ABOVE...OUR FORECAST WILL CALL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE DRYLINE WILL
LIKELY BE MOVING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND/OR THE NAM SOLUTION IS
REALIZED...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK IS
POSSIBLE AND THE THREAT FOR STORMS WOULD SHIFT TO INCLUDE MORE OF
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
IN FROM OKLAHOMA. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE REGION. IF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN
OKLAHOMA...IT COULD MOVE ACROSS INTO TEXAS AND WOULD LIKELY IMPACT
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
SOME ELEVATED PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW WITH WARM
AIR STILL OVERRUNNING THE LEADING EDGE. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE
IN WEAK RIDING ALOFT AND THEREFORE SUBSIDENT IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS TROUGH AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE OVERRUNNING WARM AIR COULD BE LIFTED ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL KEEP POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE OUTPUTTING ADDITIONAL QPF WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
STRONG SURFACE FRONT. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THAT SAME
NIGHT...AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT FRIDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MORE DAMPENED. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY LOW POPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

82/JLD

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  65  83  67  78 /   5  10  10  10  40
WACO, TX              84  64  81  67  77 /   5  10  10  10  40
PARIS, TX             80  60  78  62  73 /   5  10  10  10  50
DENTON, TX            85  64  81  65  77 /   5  10  10  10  40
MCKINNEY, TX          83  64  80  65  76 /   5  10  10  10  40
DALLAS, TX            86  65  83  68  77 /   5  10  10  10  40
TERRELL, TX           82  64  80  65  76 /   5  10  10  10  40
CORSICANA, TX         83  64  80  66  77 /   5  10  10  10  40
TEMPLE, TX            84  64  81  67  78 /   5  10  10  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  62  87  67  82 /   5  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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