Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 202051
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
251 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

Multiple shortwaves continue to work their way around a parent
trough located across the Rockies, generating enough lift to
produce numerous showers and storms across the North and Central
Texas. The axis of heavier precipitation has thus far remained
over the western two-thirds of the forecast area. Convection is
currently beginning to become focused along a cold front currently
making its way into the northwestern zones. The axis of heavier
precipitation will shift to the southeast tonight as the front
pushes southeast through the forecast area. A few strong to
marginally severe storms will remain possible due to good shear
and modest instability, but the focus will shift to heavy rain and
possible flooding over the next 24 hours.

Another issue that we have been monitoring over the past few days
is the amount of cold air present behind the front. Judging by
upstream observations, it is one again appearing that the NAM has
done a better job depicting the cold air within the shallow arctic
airmass. The latest temperature forecast has leaned toward the
colder NAM, which indicates sub-freezing temperatures across the
northwest counties overnight and through most of the day
tomorrow. The threat for a switch-over to freezing rain is
looking more likely overnight and Wednesday for areas to the west
and northwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for areas along and northwest of a line
from Gainesville to Weatherford to Eastland, where freezing rain
accumulations between a hundredth and a tenth of an inch will be
possible late tonight through Wednesday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through early next week/

Travel west on I-20, northwest on Highway 287 and north on
Interstate 35 could become difficult at times by midday Wednesday.
The advisory is set to expire at 6 PM Wednesday, but may need to
be extended if future trends suggest that cold air and precipitation
will linger beyond that time. In addition, if later guidance
trends colder farther south, we may see some minor impacts creep
into the Metroplex during the morning hours Wednesday. Will leave
it to the evening and overnight shifts to monitor temperatures
and adjust the advisory area if it becomes necessary.

Meanwhile, the cold front will continue sagging southeast,
reaching the southeastern counties by Wednesday afternoon. The
focus for the heaviest precipitation will likewise shift east of
I-35 and south of I-30. It may become necessary to remove western
counties from the Flash Flood Watch as the heavier precipitation
moves east. However, due to the presence of strong ascent
associated with the Rockies trough, moderate rain from elevated
convection will remain possible, and at this time the Watch is
set to continue for all counties along and east of a line from
Gainesville to Stephenville to Goldthwaite.

The Flood Watch is set to expire at midnight Wednesday night
after one of the stronger shortwaves lifts northeast of the
region. The cold front will have briefly become stationary over
southeast Texas, but should begin to lift northwest as a stronger
shortwave swings down through the Desert Southwest and a lee-side
surface cyclone develops. So after a lull in precipitation
Wednesday night and Thursday, showers and storms will ramp up
again Thursday night and Friday as strong lift arrives from the
west. The surface boundary will again provide added focus for
development, and some locally heavy rainfall may again be a
possibility. We will likely need to look into the possibility of
another Flood Watch sometime between late Thursday and late
Saturday.

The main trough axis is progged to finally move east across the
Plains over the weekend. Precipitation will come to an end from
west to east late Saturday or Sunday. A few days of dry and
seasonable weather is likely Sunday and Monday, followed by
another system approaching around the middle of next week.


30

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1213 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/
/18Z TAFS/

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are in progress across
North Texas ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The cold
front is expected to move through this evening in the 5-7 pm
timeframe in the Metroplex and around 6-8 pm at Waco. Ahead of the
front, persistent MVFR cigs around 2000 ft will prevail with
scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. We`ll carry a
TEMPO for TSRA this afternoon from 20-23Z when surface based
instability may be maximized. The current forecast will show the
front coming through the Metroplex around 23Z with an abrupt wind
shift to the north. There will continue to be a chance for
thunderstorms during this time, although showers should become the
prevailing precip type as the cold air gets a little deeper. A
period of IFR cigs is likely to occur post frontal. There may be a
brief lull in the precipitation late tonight prior to another wave
of ascent spreading across the region Wednesday. Additional areas
of showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through the
day.

There is some chance for freezing rain or sleet mainly to the
northwest of the Metroplex as temperatures drop late tonight and
especially on Wednesday. For now, we`ll keep the mention of any
FZRA out of the current forecast, but will continue to monitor
through the evening.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    35  36  36  51  47 /  80  90  50  70  80
Waco                42  42  39  52  48 /  90  90  40  60  70
Paris               39  42  42  55  50 /  90  90  70  70  90
Denton              34  35  35  50  44 /  70  80  50  70  80
McKinney            36  36  36  51  47 /  80  90  50  70  80
Dallas              37  37  37  52  48 /  80  90  50  70  80
Terrell             40  40  40  55  49 /  90  90  60  60  80
Corsicana           41  42  41  55  51 /  90 100  60  60  80
Temple              42  44  39  53  49 /  90  90  40  60  70
Mineral Wells       32  33  32  47  40 /  60  80  40  70  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ092>095-102>107-
116>123-130>135-143>148-157-159>161.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Wednesday for TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129.

&&

$$

30/91



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