Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200504 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1204 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail with generally light southeast winds.

As the subsidence associated with the upper ridge steadily
increases Thursday, the CU should be noticeably flatter. Some
diurnal showers and storms will still be possible in the weak
easterly flow across South Texas, but this activity will find it
increasingly difficult to reach Central Texas. No impacts are
expected at Waco the next few days, but isolated afternoon cells
could affect traffic to the south and inbound flights approaching
the Cedar Creek cornerpost.

25

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

Upper level ridge centered around the Tulsa area continues to be
the main driver of our weather across North and Central Texas
through the next couple of days. This will lead to several days
with temperatures above normal and heat index values approaching
105 Friday and exceeding 105 degrees Saturday and Sunday.

Overnight low temperatures have gradually been warming the last
couple of days, and the trend is expected to continue tonight.
Most locations will be in the mid to upper 70s, except for the
Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex where temperatures will struggle to
dip below 80 degrees. By tomorrow, high temperatures will be
between 95 and 99 with dew points in the mid 60s out west and low
to mid 70s in the east. This will yield heat index values mostly
below 105 degrees with a few isolated 105 degrees. The same will
hold true Friday as there will be very little modification to the
upper level ridge. A few more locations will reach heat indices
between 105 and 106 given the current thinking in regards to dew
point mixing through the day. Any changes to the dew point will
have a significant effect on the resultant heat index value.

By Saturday, except for the far eastern counties, all locations
should be in the upper 90s and even a few 100s will be possible.
Current forecast suggests there will be a large area with heat
index values at or above 105 degrees. If this trend continues, a
Heat Advisory will most likely be issued for that time frame.
Given the slight eastward shift in the core of the upper level
high, a few showers and perhaps a storm will be possible southeast
of a Palestine to Cameron line during the afternoon Saturday. Not
much change in temperatures is expected Sunday, with much of the
region experiencing heat index values at or above 105 degrees. The
only difference is that a weak disturbance will pivot around the
southern fringe of the high, increasing our chances for showers
and thunderstorms east of the Interstate 35 corridor Sunday
afternoon and continuing into Monday.

Rain chances will diminish Tuesday and continue into Wednesday as
the ridge of high pressure amplifies to our west and keeps most
of the active weather north of North and Central Texas.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  98  80  98  80 /   0   5   5   0   5
Waco                77  98  78  98  78 /   5   5   5   0   5
Paris               76  95  76  95  76 /   0   5   5   0   0
Denton              78  98  78  98  79 /   0   5   5   0   5
McKinney            77  96  77  96  78 /   0   5   5   0   0
Dallas              81  98  81  98  81 /   0   5   5   0   5
Terrell             77  96  77  97  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           77  97  77  97  77 /   5   5   5   5   5
Temple              76  99  76  99  77 /   5   5   5   0   5
Mineral Wells       76  97  76  98  77 /   0   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/66



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