Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 082036
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED-
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN COULD PICK UP CLOSE TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS REMAINED CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
TODAY WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WE HAVE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST SLIDES EAST/NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A WEAK FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SLIDE SOUTH NEAR THE RED RIVER
TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE RIVER TOMORROW.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AND WILL
MAINTAIN 20 TO 30 POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH LATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE COLORADO PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY END ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE.
EXPECT WARM DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 70S...MAINLY THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
URBAN AREAS IN THE DFW METROPLEX ONLY COOLING OFF TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SOME OF THE NIGHTS/MORNINGS. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN
5 TO 15 MPH WILL OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE AFTERNOON HEAT BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY...THE GFS RETREATS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BACK WEST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE RIDGE OVER THE STATE.
IN THE EXTENDED...KEPT TEMPERATURES IN BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE BUT IF THE ECMWF IS REALIZED...TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE
BECOME COMMON NEXT WEEK.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
CONCERNS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 3PM-7PM CDT
/20Z-00Z/.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL AS LIGHTNING. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED VCSH IN THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR THE 20Z-00Z PERIOD. ANY DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  97  77  98  77 /  10  20  10   5   5
WACO, TX              75  98  74  97  74 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             75  92  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  96  75  98  75 /  10  30  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  95  75  96  76 /  10  30  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  97  77  98  78 /  10  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           78  95  76  98  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  95  74  96  74 /  10  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  74  97  74 /  10   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  98  74  99  74 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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