Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 281619
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1119 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE REGION REVEALED THAT A
BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH /AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12 UTC FWD RAOB/ SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS VERY LOW...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY DEVELOPING.
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS NOT SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BY THE
WEAK FRONT. A FEW HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE MAINTAINED 20 POPS ACROSS
THIS REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX WITH A FEW COOLER READINGS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 634 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

NO CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. DIFFLUENT NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SCT-BKN CIRRUS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF NORTH TX TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SPOTTY
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF WACO.05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AN UNUSUAL AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY SUMMER...A STRONG UPPER
HIGH IN THE WEST AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WILL
KEEP THE REGION AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CHANCE POPS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
JUST A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOWN
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. 1-6KM SHEAR WILL BE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD BUT CAPE WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE
DOWNBURST WINDS.

THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME MORE CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE HINTED AT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WORKING DOWN INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. TONIGHT/S GFS RUN DOES PUSH A FRONT INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT THEN LIFTS IT BACK NORTH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF MODEL NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DO PRODUCE CONVECTION AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE RED RIVER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
20-30 POPS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF GRAHAM TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES BEING ALONG THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES.

AFTER TODAY...BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL CREEP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE LATTER PART OF JUNE. 75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  72  94  74  93 /   0   5  10  20  10
WACO, TX              92  70  93  72  91 /  10   5  20  10  20
PARIS, TX             89  69  92  71  90 /   0   5  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            90  68  94  72  92 /   0   5  10  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          89  68  93  72  92 /   0   5  10  20  10
DALLAS, TX            91  74  94  75  93 /   0   5  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           89  70  93  73  91 /   0   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         91  71  93  72  91 /  10   5  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  70  93  71  90 /  20  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  67  94  70  93 /   0   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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