Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 272102
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL UNDERGO MODERATE CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE NET EFFECT TO NORTH TEXAS`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINOR. IN GENERAL...WARM AND PREDOMINATELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AS WE EXIT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

IN THE NEAR TERM...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM/AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OK ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PROBABLY
WON`T HAVE ENOUGH UMPHH TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE RED RIVER...BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT...IN KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP...THEN DISSIPATE OVER
OK LATER SAT...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS N TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OTHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SE LA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD WOBBLE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS ERIKA. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...LIMITING OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT SOME SPARSE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE-THURS IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...AM SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS LOW WILL MANAGE TO WORK ANY FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY...DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A TAD DRIER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO...KEEPING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FROM BECOMING TOO OUTRAGEOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BRADSHAW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE...VFR THROUGHOUT.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL SHED SOME
CIRRUS...AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CLUTTER THE
SKIES ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
METROPLEX SITES. AN UNSEASONABLY DRY LAYER BENEATH THE CIRRUS
WILL PRECLUDE LOW/MID CLOUDS AT METROPLEX SITES. BUT IN CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE AMPLE...SCATTERED
DAYTIME CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT
NORTHWEST ARRIVALS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE BOWIE CORNERPOST.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  98  75  97  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  99  73  98  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  93  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  99  72  96  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  97  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  98  76  97  76 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  96  72  94  72 /   0   0  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  98  72  97  70 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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