Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 140948
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
348 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017


.SHORT TERM...
Low level moisture will continue to surge northward today with a
few low level jet induced showers expected near the Red River
this morning.

The dreary weather will continue through the day with abundant
moisture remaining below 10K ft. The extensive moisture and
relatively light winds will result in some patchy morning drizzle
and fog, especially across the western half of the region where
moisture will be most abundant. Some drier air will begin to mix
down from above and the sun will make an appearance this afternoon.
The combination of low level warm air advection and some
solar heating will result in afternoon highs mainly in the 70s.

The partial clearing will be very brief and low clouds will
return overnight with the development of a 30 knot low level jet.
Since wind speeds will be in the 5 to 10 mph range, we don`t
expect dense fog development.

Overnight temperatures will be very mild for mid November with
lows mainly in the lower 60s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM...
Another cold front will move into North Texas on Wednesday once an
upper trough swings through the Central Plains. Although large
scale forcing for ascent will be largely absent, lift along the
front will be enough for some scattered showers. The front will
stall near or just south of the I-20 corridor Wednesday night so
we will maintain low PoPs due to some isentropic lift over the
stalled boundary.

By Thursday morning the front will lift back to the north and low
level warm air advection will increase. Although extensive cloud
cover will remain, afternoon temperatures will still warm into the
70s in most locations.

Friday will be the warmest day of the week with prefrontal
downslope winds and some afternoon sun. Afternoon highs will range
from the middle 70s in the east where the clouds will be most
persistent to the middle 80s in the far west where surface heating
and adiabatic warming will be maximized.

Another cold front will enter the northwest zones Friday night
and move through the entire forecast area by sunrise Saturday.
The front will not have much moisture to work with and should come
through dry. The only exception may be across the eastern zones
where there might be just enough moisture for a few showers.

The air behind the front will be much drier and will finally bring
an extended period of mostly clear skies and below normal
temperatures from Saturday through Monday. High temperatures
Saturday through Monday will be generally in the 60s with lows
mainly in the 40s. Some upper 30s are also possible across the
northwest zones Sunday morning.

79

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1142 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/
/06Z TAFs/

KACT: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF
time with possibly a few periods of MVFR cigs and light fog
between 10-14Z. South to southeast winds at speeds less than 13
kts are expected.

Metroplex Airports: IFR ceilings are quickly developing across
the Metroplex, but an improvement to MVFR ceilings is expected in
a few hours due to the best isentropic lift shifting north of the
area. MVFR visby due to a combination of light fog, drizzle and
light rain will prevail overnight. Ceilings will improve Tuesday
morning with VFR conditions expected by the afternoon. Southeast
winds overnight will become southerly Tuesday morning and increase
to 10-15 kts. Breezy winds will prevail into Tuesday night. In
the extended portion of the DFW TAF, MVFR cigs will return again
early Wednesday morning.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  62  72  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  20
Waco                76  61  74  61  77 /  10  10  10  20  20
Paris               66  57  68  57  67 /  20  10  30  30  40
Denton              74  61  70  57  73 /  10  10  30  30  20
McKinney            73  61  70  58  71 /  10  10  30  30  30
Dallas              74  63  72  61  74 /  10  10  20  30  20
Terrell             73  61  72  60  73 /  10  10  20  20  30
Corsicana           74  60  73  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  20
Temple              76  61  75  61  76 /  10  10  10  10  20
Mineral Wells       76  61  72  57  74 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/24



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