Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 300545
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1145 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.AVIATION...
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None major. VFR with north flow. Return to south flow
possible late Wednesday.

VFR will prevail through the entire TAF cycle. Clouds around
FL100-FL150 will continue to develop and build towards the north
and east ahead of a mid-level trough. This VFR ceiling will
continue to overspread the DFW Metroplex TAF sites over the next
1-2 hours with a time of arrival at the Waco TAF site of around
0900 UTC. Northerly winds below 10 knots will continue through
the pre-dawn hours before intensifying as clouds clear during the
mid to late morning time period and daytime heating commences.
Northerly winds are expected to strengthen to around 10-14 knots
with a few gusts to 18 knots possible. Northerly winds will relax
after sunset and should gradually turn towards the west and
eventually southwest Wednesday evening. During this time, it`s
probable that airports will be allowed to return to south flow.

24-Bain

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/
Another cool front is knocking on our doorstep this afternoon,
with a north/northwest wind shift just about to sweep into our
northwestern counties. Cold advection will envelop our CWA
tonight, but the potential for increasing mid-level cloud cover
and elevated winds (around 10 mph) should keep most locations from
really tanking. Still, low to mid 30s are in store across the
northwest zones, with 40s elsewhere. Tomorrow will feature
continued cool advection leading to--dare we say it--near or
slightly below normal temperatures across the region and a
northwesterly breeze.

Surface high pressure will slide in almost directly overhead
Wednesday night. Clear skies, light or nearly calm winds, and
surface dewpoints in the 20s and lower 30s will create a solid
radiational cooling potential. This will help send lows into the
30s for most of us by Thursday morning. Dewpoints remain pretty
low, but a patchy frost will be possible, especially in our colder
outlying areas.

On Friday, a deep upper-level trough will begin to dig sharply
into the Southwestern CONUS. To the east, high pressure will
correspondingly shift into the Deep South, allowing southerly
winds to begin the poleward transport of moisture into the region.
While most model QPF fields are now generally dry across our
forecast area on Friday, burgeoning isentropic ascent rooted
around 300-305 K coupled with just a hint of mid-level instability
may be sufficient to generate scattered showers Friday afternoon
and evening, primarily west of I-35 where ascent will be
maximized.

The real push looks to occur during the day Saturday as warm and
moist air surges atop a shallow layer of cool near-surface air. A
widespread chilly rain looks to be in store on Saturday with
temperatures likely to struggle out of the 40s. To add insult to
injury, blustery northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph will
accompany the rainfall. We`ll continue to just show rain in the
weather grids, but there may be some risk for some sporadic
lightning strikes as we tap into some mid-level instability.

Interestingly, the deterministic runs of the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC
are now all in respectable agreement (considering the time range)
during the Saturday night through Monday period. That said, this
morning`s ECMWF run sits in stark contrast to its predecessors,
which certainly warrants a few raised eyebrows. However, given the
good model agreement and decent clustering within respective
ensemble systems, we`ve started nudging the forecast towards a
wetter solution through Monday as the brunt of the trough axis
blasts through the region. Precip-free and cool conditions are in
store as we (briefly) dry out on Tuesday.

Carlaw



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    43  61  38  64  44 /   5   5   0   0   5
Waco                40  61  33  64  41 /  10   5   0   0   5
Paris               38  57  34  61  39 /  10   5   0   0   5
Denton              37  58  31  63  41 /   5   5   0   0   5
McKinney            39  58  33  62  40 /   5   5   0   0   5
Dallas              44  60  40  64  45 /   5   5   0   0   5
Terrell             41  59  35  63  41 /  10   5   0   0   5
Corsicana           44  62  37  64  42 /  10   5   0   0   5
Temple              42  63  35  64  43 /  10   5   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       38  59  33  64  41 /   5   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/91



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