Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 181728 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1228 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW. WEAK COLD FRONT IS VERY NEAR WACO AND WILL LIKELY
NOT PUSH ANY FARTHER SOUTH. SCT/BKN050 CLOUD COVER WILL PRIMARILY
IMPACT WACO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
UPPER TROUGHS EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND THE EASTERN ROCKIES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE REGION TODAY...BUT
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM THIS
WAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS FORECAST AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER CENTRAL CANADA
CONTINUES TO DROP INTO IT. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY
MONDAY...IT/S NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN
SENDING CIRRUS FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT WILL PROVIDE
A CHANNEL OF WEAKNESS FOR THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY...TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON
THE MAGNITUDE OF DEEPENING THAT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE STATE BY FRIDAY
MORNING WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF GEM SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
FOR POTENTIAL AFFECTS FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE...THE PATTERN OF SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST WITH ONE EXPECTATION...THAT BEING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDER...OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NEARS NORTH TEXAS. OUR NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
EASTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. A SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL TAP
ADDITIONAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND SEND IT SOUTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE FOR A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT FALL
WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

REGIONAL DAILY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM MON-WED
DUE TO RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT WILL UNDERGO A SLIGHT COOLING
LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BRIDGES DOWN INTO
THE STATE. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  57  78  61  82 /   0   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              84  58  80  58  81 /   0  10  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             76  51  74  53  76 /   0   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            79  53  78  56  81 /   0   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          79  53  77  55  79 /   0   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            80  57  78  61  81 /   0   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           81  56  78  56  80 /   0   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         84  57  79  58  80 /   0   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  81  59  80 /   0  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  55  79  57  81 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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