Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 130229 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
929 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
WESTERN RADARS ARE NOW SHOWING SOME RETURNS WEST OF BOTH MIDLAND AND
SAN ANGELO WHICH GIVE THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY FORECAST SOME
CREDIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. IF THIS HOLDS...THEN
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE CWA BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AM.

AS FOR SUNDAY...THE ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE MORNING COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT OF STORM DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS STATED
EARLIER...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE CLOUD COVERAGE DIMINISHING
AROUND THE DRYLINE AND THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
CAN OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. ONLY THE NAM MODEL IS AVAILABLE
EARLY THIS EVENING FOR EVALUATION AND IT CONTINUES IT/S BIAS OF
BEING DRY ALONG THE DRYLINE DUE TO THE INABILITY TO START THE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SCHEMES. AS A RESULT...WE/VE NOT CHANGED THE
FORECAST EXCEPT TO INCREASE WINDS AND GUSTS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH DAYS WILL BE VERY WINDY AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY DUE TO
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ALONG WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS DUE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING AS A 45
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO WACO
AROUND 06Z AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 07 AND 08Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD LIFT AND
EVENTUALLY SCATTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SINCE AN
ELEVATED LAYER OF WARM AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE AS IT FALLS THROUGH THIS
LAYER. THE MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL MOISTEN THE DRY LAYER AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ALSO COOL THE LAYER WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON WHETHER THE CAP WILL COMPLETELY
ERODE AND HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BASE ON THIS UNCERTAINTY WE WILL ONLY CARRY A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THUNDER AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z (4 PM) UNTIL 00Z (7 PM). IF ANY
STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE
AND RESULT IN MAJOR IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL THEY MOVE OVER.    79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE
OFF TOWARD SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEST OF
THE BIG BEND APPROACHES...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING...AS INDICATED
MOST STRONGLY BY THE GFS...TEXAS TECH WRF AND CANADIAN MODELS. SOME
LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

ROUND TWO OF STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BY MIDDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE AND MOVE
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY  AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS LIKELY. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX NORTH INTO
OKLAHOMA. IF SURFACE WINDS WERE TO BACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WHICH IS
NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXTEND FARTHER
SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY FOR NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. IT WILL BE WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL/COLD MONDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND SHOULD GO
NEARLY CALM ACROSS THE WEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHERLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER
20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS ACROSS THE WEST. A FREEZE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOME LOCATIONS FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO UPPER 50S EAST TO THE UPPER 60S WEST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY EVENING AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND IN THE 70S AREA WIDE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO MID
50S SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN 50S FRIDAY
NIGHT AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.  58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  81  49  56  36 /  20  50  60  20   5
WACO, TX              66  80  54  61  34 /  20  40  50  20   5
PARIS, TX             62  76  50  53  30 /  10  50  60  30  10
DENTON, TX            67  81  46  54  31 /  20  50  60  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  79  48  55  33 /  20  50  60  20   5
DALLAS, TX            67  81  49  56  37 /  20  50  60  20   5
TERRELL, TX           66  78  52  57  33 /  10  50  60  30  10
CORSICANA, TX         65  78  56  59  34 /  10  40  60  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            66  79  58  62  33 /  20  40  50  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  87  46  55  31 /  30  40  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75





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