Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 190441 AAD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1141 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016
VFR conditions expected to continue at all TAF sites through the
period with sct060 to perhaps bkn060 afternoon cumulus on
Tuesday. Generally light southeast winds of around 8 to 12 kts
For the Metroplex sites, a bit more moisture in the lower levels
is forecast to work in from the east Tuesday afternoon, which may
enable isolated convection to intrude a bit closer to the
Metroplex airspace. That said, given the degree of large-scale
subsidence in place, the main threat for diurnal convection still
appears to be relegated to the east and have forgone any mention
in the 06Z TAFs.
For Waco, any MVFR stratus is expected to remain to the south and
east given the light low-level winds tonight and unimpressive
moisture profiles. In addition, the more easterly steering flow
tomorrow should keep any sea breeze induced convection to the
south of the TAF site during the afternoon and evening.
The forecast is in good shape overall but made minor changes to
account for ongoing weather trends. This includes removing the
mention of rain for the remainder of the night and increasing
cloud cover across mainly the eastern half of the CWA where high
cloud cover remains. Otherwise, a quiet night is in store with low
temperatures in the 70s.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/
Afternoon satellite and radar imagery shows a scattering of
cumulus clouds across North and Central Texas with scattered sea
breeze showers and thunderstorms across southeast Texas. Otherwise
temperatures are in the low to mid 90s with light southeast winds.
The sea breeze convection will continue to move inland and may
affect parts of our extreme southeast CWA but otherwise North and
Central Texas will remain rain free.
On Tuesday...the upper ridge will be firmly in control over the
central and southern Plains although there will be deep east-
southeast flow across North Texas. This will allow a plume of mid
level moisture to spread into the region from the east by
tomorrow afternoon. While not a major change to the weather
pattern by any means...there may be more isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity across our east and southeast counties. PoPs
will still only be around 10% for most areas.
Wednesday and Thursday...the ridge appears that it will be
strongest just to our north. Hot temperatures and mostly clear
skies will prevail. Afternoon highs will continue to warm through
the week with temperatures topping out near or slightly above 100
degrees through the end of the week. At this time...it still looks
like afternoon dewpoints will mix into the mid/upper 60s. That
being the case...heat index values will generally range between
102 and 105 degrees which should preclude the need for a heat
advisory at this time. The only exception to this may be our far
east and northeast counties where dewpoints could remain in the
lower 70s. We will continue to monitor this over the next few
days. Right now...the hottest temperatures and highest humidity
will be to our northeast.
There may be some relief on the way by next weekend into early
next week as it appears the upper ridge may get pushed back to the
west. This would open the door to northerly flow aloft and
slightly cooler temperatures. More importantly...a weak frontal
boundary may provide sufficient focus for more scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity next week.
Fire weather potential...Latest fuels assessment across Texas
indicates that areas that have not received any rainfall in the
last 14 days are now experiencing rapid drying. Fine fuels such
as grasses continue to dry out across North and Central Texas and
will support fire growth rather quickly where afternoon humidity
drops to around 30%. The only limiting factor to a more
significant grass fire threat will be the lack of winds through
the upcoming week. Nonetheless...caution should be exercised when
doing any outdoor burning or cooking.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 97 78 99 78 / 5 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 98 77 99 77 / 5 5 5 0 0
Paris 76 96 76 97 76 / 10 10 5 5 0
Denton 75 95 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 76 95 76 97 76 / 5 5 5 0 0
Dallas 79 96 78 98 78 / 5 5 5 0 0
Terrell 77 95 76 97 76 / 10 5 5 0 0
Corsicana 77 96 77 97 77 / 10 5 5 5 0
Temple 75 98 75 98 75 / 5 5 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0