Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 042342 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE WINDS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO
A SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING. GENERALLY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS AT THE START OF TAF PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AFTER SUNSET AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 03-05Z.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY TO AROUND 12-14 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-7
KFT FRIDAY EVENING.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WILL
HELP TO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS NOTED IN
LAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LACKING
WITH PWATS A HALF INCH OR LESS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM...WE ARE ONLY ADVERTISING SLIGHT LIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL...RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY MORNING SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND LOW LEVEL WAA RETURNING
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AND AT TIMES BRISK CONDITIONS. THESE COLD FRONTS WILL NOT
DRAW ANY SIGNIFICANT CAA TO THE AREA...THUS BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUING IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
THE CONTINUING DRYING OF SMALLER VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  58  37  57  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
WACO, TX              29  58  35  59  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
PARIS, TX             29  56  34  55  33 /   0   0  20  20   0
DENTON, TX            29  58  34  56  34 /   0   0  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  57  34  55  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALLAS, TX            35  59  38  57  38 /   0   0  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           29  58  36  56  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         32  58  37  57  35 /   0   0  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            29  59  36  60  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     29  60  31  58  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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