Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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440
FXUS64 KFWD 262041
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
341 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TONIGHT`S SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH TODAY AND IS NOW CENTERED IN
WYOMING. A LOBE OF VORTICITY IS PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH SPREADING LIFT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS.
THIS LIFT WAS NOTED AS AN EXPANDING CUMULUS FIELD AND AT 3 PM ONLY
ONE STORM NEAR MIDLAND HAD DEVELOPED.

AT THE SURFACE...THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM VERNON
TO SWEETWATER TO OZONA. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM KDFW SHOWS A STOUT
CAP WAS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE
DRYLINE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP AND ALLOW STORMS TO FORM. THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NEAR A LINE FROM
WICHITA FALLS TO SAN ANGELO. WHEN INITIATION OCCURS...EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES.
I AM NOT GOING TO SPEND A LOT OF TIME TALKING ABOUT TONIGHT`S
EVENT AS THE LATEST THINKING IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE MORNING
UPDATE WITH STORMS BEGINNING TO AFFECT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 4-6 PM. WE HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT THESE STORMS THAT
FORM NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE ONES THAT MERGE INTO A SQUALL
LINE THAT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SQUALL LINE...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATES
CAN NOW BE BEST OBTAINED ON OUR SOCIAL MEDIA FEEDS AND GRAPHICS ON
OUR WEBPAGE.

HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OUR CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
LINGER LOW POPS IN OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DELAY IN THE TIMING. THE REMAINDER OF
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ON THURSDAY...SOUTH FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE
A DRY DAY BUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE SHAPING UP FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OR POSSIBLY TWO OF SEVERE STORMS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE
CONVECTION EVEN THOUGH THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE REGION. LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AND A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SEVERE
STORMS. OUR ENTIRE AREA IS ALREADY OUTLOOKED IN A SEVERE WEATHER
MARGINAL OR SLIGHT RISK AREA BY SPC WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
COVERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE MAIN LIFT AREA AND
GENERAL LOCATION OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SHIFTING NORTH AS
THE WARM SECTOR ALSO ADVANCES NORTH. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...KEPT POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS THE NAM LIFTS THE WARM
FRONT NORTH VERY QUICKLY WHICH MAY RESULT IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN
AND THE SET-UP FAVORS ANOTHER DRYLINE SEVERE STORM EVENT WITH
STORMS FORMING ON THE DRYLINE AND MOVING EAST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE ARE NOT SAYING THE IMPACTS OR OUTLOOK WITH
FRIDAY`S SEVERE STORM EVENT WILL BE AS HIGH AS TONIGHT`S ROUND OF
STORMS...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO REFINE THE PARAMETERS FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND IS MUDDY AT THIS TIME DUE TO
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN/STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND QUIETER OVERALL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

JLDUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    64  85  61  86  67 /  80   5   5  10  40
WACO                63  85  60  85  69 /  70  20   5  10  30
PARIS               64  81  58  84  64 /  70  20   5   5  40
DENTON              59  83  56  85  66 /  80   5   5   5  40
MCKINNEY            61  82  56  85  65 /  80  10   5   5  40
DALLAS              64  85  62  86  67 /  80  10   5  10  40
TERRELL             65  83  58  86  67 /  70  20   5   5  40
CORSICANA           65  84  63  86  69 /  70  20   5  10  40
TEMPLE              61  85  63  86  69 /  60  20  10  10  30
MINERAL WELLS       55  84  56  85  65 /  80   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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