Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 042150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
350 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

North and Central Texas have experienced a break from the rain
and drizzle that plagued the region yesterday, but another round
of rain is expected tonight through Monday evening as an upper
level low moves across the region. The upper level low is
currently located just east of southern Baja California. It will
start moving northeast tonight and cross North and Central Texas
tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Large scale lift ahead of the upper low will result in another
round of widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms on Monday.
Rain is already expanding in coverage from the Hill Country back
into northern Mexico. As this rain approaches our Central Texas
counties this afternoon, it is working against some cold air
advection that is dissipating most of the rain activity. However,
isentropic lift is expected to increase across our southern
counties tonight, and we expect to see some rain spreading south
to north overnight tonight. The rain may move into our far
southwest or southern counties this evening, and will carry the
highest PoPs south of Interstate 20 after midnight tonight.

The rain will continue to expand in coverage on Monday, and then
gradually end from west to east Monday afternoon and evening. The
best chances for rain will be across the southeastern half of the
CWA. We anticipate just about everyone will receive rainfall but
it is possible locations in our far northwest could miss out on
this last round of rain. Rainfall totals will vary from less than
a 1/4 inch in the northwest to near 3/4 of an inch in the
southeast. With more convective activity expected with the added
lift from the upper level low, pockets of heavier rainfall can be
expected within thunderstorms, but widespread or significant
flooding is not expected. Very localized nuisance flooding may
occur where some of the heaviest rains occur, but antecedent soil
conditions are likely to handle the rainfall without much problem.

As the upper level low moves northeast of the region on Tuesday,
a weak front will drop into the region. This front will bring
drier air to the region but warm air advection will bring some
limited moisture back to the region Tuesday night and Wednesday in
advance of our strong cold front. We may see a few showers in our
eastern counties Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead of the front,
but forecast soundings indicate a strong cap will likely suppress
any attempts at rain. Instead, we may see some drizzle in our
eastern counties if the isentropic lift is decent enough.

The front will come blasting through Wednesday evening and night
with strong north winds of 15-20 mph. These strong winds will
continue into Thursday morning. Temperatures will drop quickly and
most of the region will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s Thursday
morning. However, with the wind, it will feel like the teens and
lower 20s. On Thursday, temperatures will only recover into the
mid 30s to lower 40s. With the wind, it will feel like a bitter
cold day by Texas standards. A surface high will slide into the
region Thursday afternoon and night, decreasing the wind speeds.
With clear skies and light winds, temperatures will plummet
Thursday night and Friday morning into the 20s, with wind chill
readings in the teens and lower 20s.

Temperatures will still be winter-like on Friday but a warming
trend will begin Friday night. At that time south winds will return
to the region as the surface high slides east and a weak low
pressure system develops in the Plains. Another front now looks
like it will arrive early next week instead of next weekend.



/ISSUED 1214 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/
/18Z TAFs/

Backing surface flow has improved ceilings/visibility, and cloud
bases will continue to lift this afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail from sunset into the evening hours, but the low-level dry
advection will come to an end overnight. Northeast winds will
return, and conditions will steadily deteriorate into the morning
push. This will coincide with the next round of rain that will
hasten the onset of IFR conditions. Widespread rain and drizzle
will persist throughout the daylight hours Monday, which will
likely drop ceilings into the LIFR category. This was introduced
into the DFW TAF with the 18Z package. Prevailing IFR visibility
may also dip into the LIFR category if drizzle is the dominant
precipitation type.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  50  43  56  43 /  50  90  30  10   5
Waco                47  51  43  60  43 /  80 100  10   5   5
Paris               43  48  44  55  43 /  30 100  60  10   5
Denton              45  51  42  55  41 /  40  90  30  10   5
McKinney            45  50  43  55  42 /  40  90  40  10   5
Dallas              46  50  44  57  44 /  50 100  30  10   5
Terrell             46  50  43  58  44 /  50 100  40  10   5
Corsicana           49  50  44  59  45 /  80 100  20   5   5
Temple              47  51  45  62  44 / 100 100  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       45  50  41  55  41 /  40  90  20  10   5




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