Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 162050
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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