Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 302307 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
607 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 132 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

METROPLEX...
SIGNIFICANTLY VEERED WINDS WILL NOT DIMINISH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. AND WITH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES MAY
EXCEED 1000J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH
THE OLD SURFACE FRONT IS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST...WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OBLITERATE ALL THE RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INITIATION.
WITH WEAK SHEAR...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
SURFACE HEATING AND SHOULD DECAY AROUND SUNSET.

WACO...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE 90S FROM CORSICANA TO MEXIA...SHOWING THAT
INCREASING INSTABILITY IS NOT FAR AWAY. WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING
REMAINING AT THE HEAT OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF AREA
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL COVER.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
A BROAD LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY
WITH A POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE ANCHORED WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. A
MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH...TWO OF WHICH OVER SOUTHWEST TX AND EASTERN OK
THAT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON NORTH TX SENSIBLE WEATHER. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SHERMAN...TO D/FW...TO NEAR COMANCHE WITH
HIGHER SURFACE DEW PTS YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGED
FROM THE MID- UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE A MID-HIGH CLOUD
CANOPY HAS LINGERED MOST OF THE DAY...TO THE LOWER-MID 90S NORTH
OF I-20 WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE ABUNDANT.

CHALLENGES ABOUND ONCE AGAIN TODAY REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
DUE TO THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF LIFTING MECHANISMS NOTED ABOVE.
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST TX
AND ERN OKLAHOMA SHORTWAVE WITH BOTH PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTH. IN
ADDITION...A DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICAL REGION ALOFT WAS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN THESE TWO SHORTWAVES NORTH OF I-20.
I AM EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
BETWEEN I-30 AND THE RED RIVER TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN STRONG AND WHERE A THETA-E AXIS HAS SET UP.
FURTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS. ANY POCKET OF INSOLATION THAT
DOES OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
COUNTIES COULD REACH STRONG LIMITS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-20 FOR THE EVENING AS BETTER FORCING
WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OF I-20.
AFTER SUNSET...STRONGER ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.

THE AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH MUCH THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE SHORTWAVE
FURTHER NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF PARIS AND PUT THAT PART OF
THE CWA WITHIN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. I HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS IN MIND. THE
ARKLATEX SHORTWAVE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND WILL ADVERTISE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE DAILY SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY AIDE IN A FOCUS FOR LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS MID LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
ORGANIZES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...A POTENTIAL
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS DRY AND SEASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  76  93  75 /  10   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              73  95  73  93  73 /  20   0   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  94  70  92  71 /  20   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  95  73  93  73 /  10   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  95  73  92  73 /  20   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  93  76 /  20   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           71  94  72  92  72 /  20   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  95  74  92  74 /  20   5   5  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            71  97  72  92  71 /  30   5   5  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  96  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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