Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 230022 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE DOME LEANS FROM COLORADO
AT 20KFT TO NEAR EL PASO AT 40KFT. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL HELP GUIDE A COLD FRONT...NOW
IN KANSAS...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERS THE VERY UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHALLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE RED RIVER
LATE IN THE DAY. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO INVADE TEXAS...IT
WOULD BE NEAR NIGHTFALL. THE CELLS WOULD BE FAR FROM THEIR INITIAL
FORCING MECHANISM...AND WITH INSUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE
UPDRAFTS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING THEM TO AN
END. ANY IMPACTS AT METROPLEX TERMINALS WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE
INITIATION MUCH CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER...IF NOT WITHIN TEXAS...
WHICH WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO SLIP
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MILD AIR BEHIND IT AND THE TYPICAL EVOLUTION OF
WEAK FRONTS IN NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS
UNLIKELY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH
DEPARTURES AND NORTHEAST ARRIVALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
NORTH TEXAS HAS BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND A CUT-OFF TUTT TO THE EAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BEING FELT IN THE WAY OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS...AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH 105 IN SEVERAL SPOTS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY IF FUTURE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS INDICATE WIDESPREAD INDICES IN EXCESS
OF 105.

THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS PLACED NORTH TEXAS BENEATH A
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ESSENTIALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT
OF ARKANSAS TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME SHORT-LIVED RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED STORMS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ACROSS ARKANSAS...TRAVERSING THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE WEAKENING AS THE ARRIVE DUE TO THE
TIME OF DAY AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THE FARTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO STRONG
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH THE HOT CONDITIONS
BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE DOMINANT RIDGE SLIDES
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-END POPS LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  99  79 100  79 /   0   5  20  10  10
WACO, TX              75  98  74 100  76 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             75  96  74  96  73 /   5  20  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            75  99  75 100  76 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  97  74  99  74 /   0  10  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            78  99  79 100  80 /   0   5  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  98  75  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  97  74  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  73  99  74 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  99  76 101  75 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.