Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 011857
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

1221 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015



.AVIATION...



FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE

FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION IS THE

PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN.



A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE JUST EAST OF

AREA TAF SITES AS OF 17Z...PROMOTING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS

ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE

POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES AND FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS OVER

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY

DIRECTION TOMORROW...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN

SOMEWHAT LIGHT...SO DO NOT HAVE ANY MORNING MVFR STRATUS MENTIONED

IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.



THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. DUE

TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...EXPECT THAT IF ANY STORMS

DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF AREA

TAF SITES...CLOSER TO COMANCHE AND LAMPASAS THAN THE INTERSTATE 35

CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS

DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATING WHILE

MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS

INDICATE THAT THE DYNAMIC REMNANTS OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX

WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON

AND MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN WEST OF AREA

TAF SITES...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THE END

OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL

IN LATER FORECASTS.



CAVANAUGH





&&



.UPDATE...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE

WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE

POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THESE COUNTIES DUE TO WEAK LIFT

GENERATED BY THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING

OVER THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE HIGHER

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND THE 20 POPS IN PLACE SHOULD SUFFICE

FOR THIS REGION. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON

TRACK TO REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.



RIVER FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS...AS NEAR RECORD CRESTS ARE EITHER ONGOING OR

EXPECTED ALONG THE TRINITY. RESIDENTS ALONG THE TRINITY RIVER

BASIN ARE URGED TO REMAIN TUNED TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR

YOUR AREA.



30



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO

MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER

AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT

PREVAILING...THE REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORTICITY MAX WILL

TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE

WESTERN ZONES THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A

FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THIS

WEAK FORCING MOVES ACROSS. THUS WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS

WEST OF I-35 TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG

MEAN THAT IF A STORM DOES FORM...IT COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE

METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER STARTS TODAY...AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY

NICE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES

WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL SHOULD ONLY TOP

OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.



ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL AND TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR

MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC

LIFT/WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND

THIS COMBINED WITH A MEAGER AMOUNT OF ELEVATED MOISTURE AND

INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A

STORM. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF MUCH SIGNIFICANCE

AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING.



AN UPPER LEVEL WILL HIGH BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST

BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING

TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 90 BY

SATURDAY WITH LOWS ALSO WARMING TO AROUND 70. GIVEN ALL OF THE

RECENT RAINFALL THE HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN

THE AIR TEMPERATURE WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER

90S BY THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FORMIDABLE CAP

BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO DESPITE HIGH AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES...WILL

MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.



BY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BACK OFF TO THE WEST...WHICH

RESULTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INTRODUCES THE POSSIBILITY

THAT CONVECTION IN THE PLAINS COULD DROP SOUTH AND AFFECT OUR

REGION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING POPS TO THE FORECAST UNTIL

MONDAY...WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT

MAY BACK-DOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.



TR.92







&&





.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  63  85  68  87 /   5  10  10   5   5

WACO, TX              84  62  86  67  88 /   5  10  10   5   5

PARIS, TX             80  62  82  64  84 /   5   5  10   5   5

DENTON, TX            83  64  84  67  86 /   5  10  10   5   5

MCKINNEY, TX          81  63  84  65  86 /   5  10  10   5   5

DALLAS, TX            84  64  87  69  89 /   5  10  10   5   5

TERRELL, TX           81  62  84  66  86 /   5  10  10   5   5

CORSICANA, TX         83  63  84  67  86 /   5  10  10   5   5

TEMPLE, TX            83  63  86  67  88 /   5  10  10   5   5

MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  64  86  67  87 /  10  20  20   5   5



&&



.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.



&&



$$






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