Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 051129
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING WACO AND ARE ALSO LOCATED JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX WITH SOME NORTHWESTWARD
ADVANCEMENT POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS MOISTURE MIXES OUT BY MID
MORNING. WILL SHOW BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT DAL/GKY/ACT THIS
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL FROM MID-LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TODAY
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS ABOVE 20KT POSSIBLE.
THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION LOOKS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF TODAY.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CONSISTING OF AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS. HIGH
CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITHIN THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AN
ACTIVE BELT OF CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A
RESULT OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT MOST OF THIS HAS
REMAINED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEST-TX RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKEST. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS DUMPED
SOME GOOD RAIN AMOUNTS YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EVEN FARTHER EAST TODAY WHICH WILL LIKELY LESSEN PRECIP
CHANCES EVEN MORE. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY...THE RIDGE EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA-WIDE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL SEND A FRONT SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS SOME OF
THE ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT....WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST LOCATIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A COUPLE
OF OUR COUNTIES NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY EXPERIENCE TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT OR OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES MAKE IT...AS THEY
WOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR REPEATED DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...WE FEEL
THAT THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...BECAUSE BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A FARTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT.
EITHER WAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU
GO WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED AS YOU GET SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD MID TO LATE
WEEK...BRINGING SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS DEEPENS A TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD WEAKEN OUR RIDGE ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK IN THE PICTURE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  77  93  77  91 /  10   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              93  76  93  76  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             90  74  90  75  88 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            93  76  92  76  89 /  10   5   5  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          92  75  91  76  89 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            94  77  93  77  91 /  10   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           92  75  92  76  90 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         92  76  92  76  91 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  75  92  76  91 /  10   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  74  92  75  90 /  10   5   5  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.