Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 110800
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
A FEW MORE DAYS...THEN RETRACT WESTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL OCCUPY MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WE/LL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING 100S THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY AS
THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON DRY.

BEYOND MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING AS THE UPPER FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES NORTHERLY AND TAPS
INTO COOLER AIR LOCATED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN
ALBERTA. A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL FORM SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE CANADA/U.S. BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW OVER
OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY...BUT COULD CROSS THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT
AS CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE INCREASES FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH.

THERE WILL BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
COULD SEND A MCS DOWN INTO NORTH TEXAS ON EITHER WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL
EVENT WITH 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. SINCE THIS EVENT REMAINS A LONG WAYS
OUT FORECAST-WISE...MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN
WHICH WOULD EITHER DIMINISH OR INCREASE THIS RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
FOR NOW...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
THEN COOLING BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
10-15KTS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF
WACO...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78 100  79 101 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              95  74  98  76  99 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             96  75  98  76  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            98  76  99  78 100 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  77  99  77 100 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            98  79 100  79 100 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           98  76 100  78  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         96  75  98  76  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            96  73  97  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  75 100  76 101 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.