Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 301518
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1018 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014


.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK PER AREA SOUNDINGS AS ANOTHER WARM
EARLY FALL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF WARM WEATHER BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END
RAIN CHANCES AS DRIER...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.



&&

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...STRATUS RETURNS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
AVERAGING 7-10 KTS. THE SKIES WILL BE MIXED WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD
AROUND 5000 FT AND SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.

MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE RETURN
OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRATUS DECK WILL REACH KACT BEFORE SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT THE CEILINGS AT
KACT COULD BE IN IFR CATEGORY AND WILL PREVAIL A BKN010 DECK
BEGINNING AT 10Z. KACT COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON IF THE STRATUS WILL BE A BKN DECK
WHEN IT REACHES THE DFW METROPLEX AFTER 12Z BUT WILL MENTION A
SCT020 CIG IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF KDFW FOR NOW.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT
OF COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN THE EROSION OF THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS. OUR WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY AND TAP INTO SOME HIGHER GULF MOISTURE. THERE IS ACTUALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT A SMALL AMOUNT OF UNCAPPED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. THIS INSTABILITY RESIDES BELOW
15000 FEET AND IS NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER...BUT SATURATING LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES DO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BUT
WARRANTS A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO OVER YESTERDAYS VALUES AND GENERALLY TOP
OUT NEAR 90...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER. A DRY LINE WILL SET UP IN WEST TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES ALONG IT WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.

SOUTH WINDS AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND THE
CONTINUATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF ADVECTION FOG OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
MORE SPREAD WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 0Z NAM
WAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST...BUT ALL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE TIMING BY ABOUT 6 HOURS.
THE SLOWER TIMING IS PROBABLY BETTER NEWS FOR RAINFALL PROSPECTS
OVER THE REGION...AS THIS MEANS THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE
DAYTIME HEATING TO WORK WITH TO REMOVE THE CAP OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IN A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS GROWING.

WILL BRING LOW POPS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING. ANY
RAINFALL THURSDAY MORNING WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEING FORCED AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT QPF. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT SINCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE EXITING BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WILL RESULT IN HOT
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOW 90S OR EVEN MID 90S LIKELY OVER ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HOWEVER WILL TEND TO
DEPLETE MOISTURE AND WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. FOR
THAT REASON...CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT WEST OF I-35 WHERE MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...BUT WILL
PROBABLY FILL INTO A MORE SOLID LINE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WEST
OF I-35 AND INCREASE POPS TO THE 30-40 PERCENT EAST OF I-35. THE
HIGHEST POPS OF 50 PERCENT WILL BE RESERVED FOR THE NORTHEAST
ZONES WHERE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALL LOOK
MOST FAVORABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK ADEQUATE FOR
A LOW RISK OF SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE THUNDERSTORMS MAY RECORD
OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION
PROGGED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STILL TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 60S FOR LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERMAL ADVECTION
IS LIMITED...RAPID DRYING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE SETS UPS.
THE SURFACE HIGHS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS EXCELLENT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S IN A FEW OF THE TRADITIONALLY COOLER SPOTS...WITH 50S
ELSEWHERE. THE PLEASANT AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY SUNDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND LIKELY APPROACHING 90
AGAIN IN 7 TO 8 DAYS.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
WACO, TX             MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
PARIS, TX            MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
DENTON, TX           MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
MCKINNEY, TX         MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
DALLAS, TX           MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
TERRELL, TX          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
CORSICANA, TX        MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
TEMPLE, TX           MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
MINERAL WELLS, TX    MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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