Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 251953
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 102 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/
/Today Through Tuesday/

Conditions have slowly improved across North and Central Texas
this afternoon as the activity associated with a Pacific front
pushes off into Eastern Texas and Louisiana. Skies are rapidly
clearing from west to east, which along with southwesterly winds
will allow us to warm up quite nicely today. Temperatures across
our western counties have already climbed into the upper 60s, a
trend that will continue over the next several hours. Highs today
will top out in the low 70s, resulting in a pleasant early spring
afternoon. This will be short-lived however as a strong cold front
pushes in from the northwest into the region.

There is a low chance for the development of additional showers
and isolated thunderstorms behind the front, mainly across our
northeastern counties. These will be elevated in nature, with the
main concerns being lightning and minor flooding issues.
Southwesterly winds will become northwesterly through the evening
as the front moves through. Winds will gust up to 30 mph ahead of
and behind the front, slightly diminishing after sunset.

Lows overnight will range in the mid to upper 30s across North
Texas and the lower 40s across Central Texas. Temperatures will
remain cool through tomorrow afternoon, with highs topping out in
the upper 50s and low 60s across the region.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

By midweek, upper level troughing will be passing over the Central
Plains in response to ridging over the western CONUS. As the base
of the trough moves overtop North and Central Texas on Wednesday,
a shortwave disturbance moving through the backside of the
longwave trough will bring increased forcing for ascent in
conjunction with mid-level moisture and instability resulting in
isolated to scattered convection out near the Big Country. These
showers and storms will move eastward through the afternoon hours
eventually ending during the later evening. Most will remain dry
due to the scattered nature of the convection. Those that do see
precipitation will see low rainfall amounts due to low PWATs and
dry low-levels allowing for evaporation before reaching the
ground.

Forecast soundings show fairly steep lapse rates between 8-9 degrees
C/km, MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear > 30
kts. This parameter space would promote the potential for some
strong storms with a severe hail and wind threat. As of now, the
biggest question for this forecast issuance is whether or not the
lift will be sufficient for convection to develop within this
environment. Nonetheless, we`ll keep an eye on this potential over
the next couple days.

Behind the departing trough, upper level ridging will build in
across the Southern Plains. The subsident airmass, coupled with
southerly flow at the surface and low-levels, will promote a warming
trend over the late week and weekend. Expect afternoon highs to
reach the 70s to near 80 by Friday, and then peak in the 80s region-
wide by the end of the weekend. Warm air advection will ramp up
during this time as low-level/surface flow strengthens, sending
50s and 60s dewpoints into the region over the weekend.

Meanwhile, an upper low will transit south down the western CONUS
coastline, eventually swinging across the southern Desert Southwest
early next week. This will set the stage for our next storm system
and accompanying rain/storm chances. This is still just out of the
scope of the public forecast at this time, but will begin to be
included in the upcoming days.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 102 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...FROPA with NW flow returning through the evening.

VFR ceilings will prevail through the period across all TAF
sites. Showers and very isolated thunderstorms have gradually
cleared the region, leading to improving conditions across North
and Central Texas. A cold front will push through from north to
south starting ~23z for the D10 and ~02z for Waco. Winds will ramp
up through the afternoon hours as the front pushes through,
ranging around 15 to 20 kts. Gusts upwards of 30 kts will be
possible ahead of and behind the front as southwesterly winds
become northwesterly. There is a low chance for the development of
additional showers and isolated thunderstorms behind the front,
which have the potential to graze the D10 TAF sites.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    42  61  43  66  45 /   5   0   0  20  10
Waco                41  62  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  30  10
Paris               38  58  37  61  40 /  20   0   0  10  10
Denton              37  60  38  63  40 /   5   0   0  20   5
McKinney            39  59  39  63  41 /  10   0   0  20  10
Dallas              42  61  43  65  45 /   5   0   0  20  10
Terrell             40  59  40  64  43 /  10   0   0  10  10
Corsicana           43  62  44  68  46 /   5   0   0  10  10
Temple              41  64  44  69  44 /   0   0   0  30   5
Mineral Wells       37  61  40  67  41 /   0   0   5  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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