Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 280455 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF NORTH TEXAS IS
UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME THICK HIGH CLOUDINESS STILL
LINGERING. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA AND
OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WELL
TO THE WEST MAKES IT INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MAKING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE A VCTS IN AT ALL OF THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES FROM 05Z. MODIFICATIONS TO THIS TIMING MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.