Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 170006 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.AVIATION...
The frontal boundary that moved through the region overnight and
early this morning will remain southeast of a KGGG (Longview) to
KCLL (College Station) line through the next 36 hours. Warm moist
air overrunning the cool airmass in the surface will result in
increasing cloudiness overnight tonight with chances of showers
and isolated thunderstorms spreading northward late tonight
through Tuesday night. North flow will persist for the next 36
hours. Expect mostly VFR conditions to prevail at the Metroplex
sites through 00z with ceilings expected to lower into the MVFR
category between 00z and 03z. At Waco...Ceilings are expected to
lower into the MVFR category by by 17z Tuesday with rain showers
also likely. Have included a VCTS at Waco starting at 21z
Tuesday.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/
Skies have cleared across much of North Texas, but the west and
northwest winds have so far been unable to reduce dew points. This
northwesterly surface flow is now in place across our entire CWA,
the effective frontal boundary just to our southeast. Moisture is
riding up the frontal slope, resulting in showers within our
southeastern zones. The forcing responsible for our storms Sunday
night is now across the Mid Mississippi Valley, and the convection
in East Texas will be mainly low-topped showers with only meager
available instability.

Despite the departing storm system, longwave troughing will remain
over the Four Corners. This will re-intensify in the lee of the
Rockies, regenerating deep southwesterly flow over Texas. The
postfrontal air mass will remain in place, and this overrunning
process will persist Tuesday and Wednesday. This will return a
blanket of clouds, and the resulting upglide will allow the stream
of showers (and perhaps embedded thunderstorms) to gradually shift
back to the northwest though the bulk of the rainy weather will
be confined to Central and East Texas. With the frontal boundary
remaining to our south, any elevated thunderstorms within North
and Central Texas during the period will be non-severe. The cloud
cover, combined with cold advection at the surface, will return
afternoon temperatures closer to seasonal normals.

The mid-level trough axis will transit the area on Thursday, and
the surface boundary will retreat, shutting off the precipitation
process from west to east. The sun will re-emerge, and some areas
will top 70 degrees Thursday and/or Friday. Despite the complexity
of the synoptic pattern late in the week, extended guidance is in
remarkably good agreement with the strength, timing, and overall
evolution of the subsequent storm system arriving on Saturday. In
the wake of that precipitation event, the associated cold front
will drop temperatures back to near normal for Sunday.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    44  56  45  57  47 /   0  20  60  30  10
Waco                48  55  45  59  46 /  20  50  70  50  10
Paris               42  55  44  55  47 /  10   5  50  40  20
Denton              39  55  40  56  43 /   0  10  60  30  10
McKinney            41  55  42  56  46 /   5  10  60  30  10
Dallas              45  56  46  57  49 /   5  20  60  40  10
Terrell             45  56  46  57  48 /  10  20  70  50  10
Corsicana           49  56  47  58  50 /  20  40  70  60  20
Temple              49  55  46  58  47 /  20  60  70  60  20
Mineral Wells       40  55  41  57  43 /   0  20  60  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/30



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