Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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425
FXUS64 KFWD 261139 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
639 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017


.AVIATION...
Outside of a brief period of potential MVFR cigs at Waco between
13-15z, VFR flying conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF
sites. As daytime heating ensues, a FEW-SCT field of Cu will
materialize, and bases will steadily rise through FL040-070.
Southerly winds of 10-13 kts will be the norm today, and an
occasional gust to 20 kts can be expected.

With decent moisture expected to push in from the Mid- and Upper-
Texas Coast later today, showers and a couple thunderstorms should
materialize with the peak heating of the day. Latest guidance
suggests that any convection will remain south and east of the
Waco TAF site. Across North Texas, a shower or two may percolate
as intense heating occurs beneath a burgeoning ridge of high
pressure aloft.

MVFR cigs towards Thursday morning look to remain just south and
east of the Waco airfield.

Carlaw

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 341 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the main weather
headline today will be oppressive heat index values in excess of
105 degrees spreading across roughly the eastern 2/3rds of the
forecast area. High temperatures today will rise into the mid 90s
across our eastern counties, and towards 100 degrees along and
west of the I-35 corridor. A nearly persistence forecast for
dewpoint temperatures subsequently results in maximum heat index
values in the 105-109 degree range for locations roughly east of a
Bowie to Killeen line, where a Heat Advisory remains in effect.
It`s conceivable that some localized spots briefly touch or exceed
110 degree heat index readings where dewpoints are more hesitant
to mix out, but the anticipated limited coverage does not warrant
an Excessive Heat Warning. If it`s any consolation, a bit of a
southerly breeze (10-15 mph) will help to take the edge off of
things today.

A decent push of moisture will make its way across our
southeastern-most counties this afternoon, and a nice 925-850mb
theta-e axis should correspondingly set up from near an Athens to
Temple line. Locations south and east of this line will be far
enough removed from increasing subsidence to the north to allow
for some sporadic thunderstorm development. As a result, we`ve
introduced 20% PoPs for showers and isolated storms across this
portion of our forecast area today. Given dewpoint depressions
nearing 30 degrees, any of the more robust cells will pose a
strong to even marginally severe downburst wind threat before
activity ceases with the loss of daytime heating.

Farther to the north, opted to insert a very low (10%) mention of
an isolated diurnally-driven shower roughly north and west of a
Comanche to Gainesville line where convective temperatures will
easily be exceeded. Very dry air above 600 mb and subsidence
offered by high pressure to the north will considerably limit any
thunder threat here.

Carlaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 341 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/
The upper level ridge will start to shift westward Thursday which
will allow a cold front to move down the Central Plains. Ahead of
this front, winds will become southwesterly across the forecast
area Thursday morning. The subsidence associated with this
southwesterly flow will aid in most locations along and west of
the I-35 corridor in having their hottest day so far this summer.
Highs will be in the upper 90s to 104 degrees! Heat index values
will range from 100 to over 110 degrees. Although there will be a
large area with heat index values near or above 110 degrees
Thursday afternoon, heat index values will be lower on Friday.
Since we will not have the two consecutive day requirement for the
Excessive Heat Warning, we will keep the Heat Advisory as is for
now.

The forecast timing of the cold front is faster than it was 24
hours ago with the cold now expected to reach the Red River before
daybreak Friday. Its southward progress should then slow with the
front not reaching Central Texas late Friday night. Highs on
Friday are expected to be lower Friday along the Red River but it
will still get quite hot across Central Texas. Highs will range
from the mid 90s along the Red River to 102 degrees across Central
Texas. The Heat Advisory will likely need to be extended into
Friday across all but the northern-most counties as heat index
values of 105 to 109 degrees should occur across most areas along
and east of the I-35 corridor except for the Red River counties.

There will be low chances of showers and thunderstorms across
areas along and north of a line from Bowie to Emory Friday
afternoon, and a chance across most of the forecast area Friday
night and Saturday. Not everyone will see rain. With northwesterly
flow on the eastern side of the upper level ridge, we will have
low chances of showers and thunderstorms continue Sunday through
Tuesday across much of the forecast area. The good news will be
the "cooler" temperatures. Highs on Saturday will range from the
lower 90s northeast to around 100 degrees across parts of Central
Texas. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will be mostly in the lower to
middle 90s.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  81 102  81 100 /  10  10   5   5  10
Waco               100  78 103  78 102 /  10  10   5   5   5
Paris               95  77  98  77  95 /  10  10   5  10  30
Denton              98  78 102  78  98 /  10  10   5  10  10
McKinney            97  78  99  77  97 /  10  10   5  10  20
Dallas              99  82 101  82 100 /  10  10   5   5  10
Terrell             97  76 100  78  99 /  10  10   5   5  10
Corsicana           97  76  98  78  99 /  10  10   5   5   5
Temple              99  75 102  77 101 /  20  10   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       99  76 101  76 100 /  10   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ107-
122-123-131-132-135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-102>106-
117>121-133-134.

&&

$$

90/58



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