Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191758 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1158 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail. Light northerly winds continue, but
DFW/DAL have already returned to south flow. A bit stronger winds
across Central and East Texas, with occasional gusts over 10kts,
will gradually veer and subside as a surface high transits the
region. Light southeasterly winds will be in place by mid-evening.
The south winds will increase on Monday, but Saturday`s front
scoured the Gulf and little moisture will return before the next
front arrives on Tuesday.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 314 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

Quiet and cool weather will be the theme through tonight, as a
vigorous shortwave disturbance aloft continues lifting east away
from the area. Another shortwave in northwest flow aloft arrives
later tonight. No rainfall is expected with a very dry airmass in
place as evidenced by precipitable water values below 0.50". At
the surface, a 1025mb high pressure center slides east over the
area by this afternoon, before shifting east across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid South regions tonight.

Sunny skies with north winds of 10 mph or less will occur this
morning, before winds become more variable and even light southerly
winds out west at 5-10 mph during the afternoon hours. With the
cold front clearing well offshore of the Texas Coast, a very dry
airmass will be in place with low humidity values and seasonably
cool temperatures expected. This morning will start off a bit
chilly in the 30s and lower 40s before strong insolation under
sunny skies helps highs rebound to around 60 degrees north and in
the lower to mid 60s across Central Texas. South-southeast winds
of 5-10 mph return to the entire area tonight in wake of our
departing surface high. A very dry airmass will remain in place
and result in strong radiational cooling across the north on Monday
morning as lows fall to between 35-40 degrees. Slightly warmer
values in the lower to mid 40s are expected across Central Texas,
as the second shortwave provides an increase in high cloudiness
which will limit radiational cooling to some extent.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 314 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/
/Monday through Saturday/

Generally quiet and pleasant weather will be the rule for the
long term period with little potential for measurable rain. This
will be the case, despite frontal passage early in the week and
again sometime next weekend. There will be a large diurnal
temperature range at least early in the outlook as a dry airmass
will be in place. Towards the end of the week, low level moisture
returns and will help to flatten the diurnal temperature curve.

Temperatures will moderate on Monday compared to Sunday as
the surface ridge moves to the east and south flow ensues. High
temps should climb into the mid to upper 60s areawide, except out
east where highs near 60 are forecast. A diffuse upper trough
will amplify out to the west of the region and strong mid/upper
level flow will overspread North and Central TX through the day.
The lift associated with this faster flow aloft should be strong
enough to generate an increase in cloud cover across the area such
that skies are partly sunny. Isentropic charts down across
Central TX on Monday morning and early afternoon coupled with NAM
NEST output suggest that a few sprinkles will be possible.
However, with surface dewpoint depressions in excess of nearly 25
degrees (even greater aloft), even sprinkles appear unlikely and
I`ve only gone with a silent 10 PoP across Central and East TX.

Tuesday morning should be warmer compared to the previous night as
light southerly winds continue. A cold front is expected to slide
southward through the area late Tuesday and into Wednesday. It
does appear that the front may be a bit slower to arrive than
previously anticipated and I`ve nudged high temperatures up by a
degree or so with this in mind. I won`t go too crazy with the
temperatures as there should be a decent amount of jet stream
cirrus overspreading from the north. The chance for measurable
rain looks low at this time, but a few sprinkles cannot be ruled
out in the weak WAA regime the develops ahead of the front.
Northerly winds will overspread the area on Wednesday, with
slightly breezier conditions out across the east where the
pressure gradient may be a tad stronger. These winds will subside
after sunset Wednesday night.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be another cool night,
especially across eastern zones where light north winds and a dry
airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the mid to upper
30s. Upper 30s will be possible across some of the sheltered
spots across central and wester zones. Otherwise, overnight lows
in the 40s appear reasonable.

The end of the week including Thanksgiving looks to remain quiet,
outside of some mid and high level clouds. Northerly flow aloft
will continue as our region will remain sandwiched between a mid-
level ridge to the west and an trough to the east. This should
ensure that Gulf of Mexico moisture remains shunted to the south
of the FA. Winds at the surface may veer to the southwest and
west. While these winds will be light, they should still be of
sufficient magnitudes to promote some downslope warming and I`ve
nudged temperatures upward by a few degrees. If winds are
stronger, high temps may be closer to that of the EC MOS guidance
which advertises values closer to 80 degrees.

Another Fall cold front is expected to arrive sometime this
weekend, but there are some timing differences between the longer
range model guidance. The EC and Canadian models (though this is
usual for the Canadian) offer faster solutions than that of the
GFS. At this time, have gone with the model blends in the extended
until we get a bit more run-to-run consistency in the global



Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  41  63  48  67 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                63  39  65  47  70 /   0   0   5   0   5
Paris               60  38  60  43  64 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              62  39  62  45  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            61  38  61  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              62  42  63  49  67 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             62  38  62  46  68 /   0   0   5   0   5
Corsicana           61  40  64  48  68 /   0   0  10   5   5
Temple              62  39  65  48  71 /   0   0  10   0   5
Mineral Wells       61  36  64  44  68 /   0   0   0   0   0




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