Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
000
FXUS64 KFWD 251953
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 102 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/
/Today Through Tuesday/
Conditions have slowly improved across North and Central Texas
this afternoon as the activity associated with a Pacific front
pushes off into Eastern Texas and Louisiana. Skies are rapidly
clearing from west to east, which along with southwesterly winds
will allow us to warm up quite nicely today. Temperatures across
our western counties have already climbed into the upper 60s, a
trend that will continue over the next several hours. Highs today
will top out in the low 70s, resulting in a pleasant early spring
afternoon. This will be short-lived however as a strong cold front
pushes in from the northwest into the region.
There is a low chance for the development of additional showers
and isolated thunderstorms behind the front, mainly across our
northeastern counties. These will be elevated in nature, with the
main concerns being lightning and minor flooding issues.
Southwesterly winds will become northwesterly through the evening
as the front moves through. Winds will gust up to 30 mph ahead of
and behind the front, slightly diminishing after sunset.
Lows overnight will range in the mid to upper 30s across North
Texas and the lower 40s across Central Texas. Temperatures will
remain cool through tomorrow afternoon, with highs topping out in
the upper 50s and low 60s across the region.
Reeves
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/
By midweek, upper level troughing will be passing over the Central
Plains in response to ridging over the western CONUS. As the base
of the trough moves overtop North and Central Texas on Wednesday,
a shortwave disturbance moving through the backside of the
longwave trough will bring increased forcing for ascent in
conjunction with mid-level moisture and instability resulting in
isolated to scattered convection out near the Big Country. These
showers and storms will move eastward through the afternoon hours
eventually ending during the later evening. Most will remain dry
due to the scattered nature of the convection. Those that do see
precipitation will see low rainfall amounts due to low PWATs and
dry low-levels allowing for evaporation before reaching the
ground.
Forecast soundings show fairly steep lapse rates between 8-9 degrees
C/km, MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear > 30
kts. This parameter space would promote the potential for some
strong storms with a severe hail and wind threat. As of now, the
biggest question for this forecast issuance is whether or not the
lift will be sufficient for convection to develop within this
environment. Nonetheless, we`ll keep an eye on this potential over
the next couple days.
Behind the departing trough, upper level ridging will build in
across the Southern Plains. The subsident airmass, coupled with
southerly flow at the surface and low-levels, will promote a warming
trend over the late week and weekend. Expect afternoon highs to
reach the 70s to near 80 by Friday, and then peak in the 80s region-
wide by the end of the weekend. Warm air advection will ramp up
during this time as low-level/surface flow strengthens, sending
50s and 60s dewpoints into the region over the weekend.
Meanwhile, an upper low will transit south down the western CONUS
coastline, eventually swinging across the southern Desert Southwest
early next week. This will set the stage for our next storm system
and accompanying rain/storm chances. This is still just out of the
scope of the public forecast at this time, but will begin to be
included in the upcoming days.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 102 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/
/18z TAFs/
Concerns...FROPA with NW flow returning through the evening.
VFR ceilings will prevail through the period across all TAF
sites. Showers and very isolated thunderstorms have gradually
cleared the region, leading to improving conditions across North
and Central Texas. A cold front will push through from north to
south starting ~23z for the D10 and ~02z for Waco. Winds will ramp
up through the afternoon hours as the front pushes through,
ranging around 15 to 20 kts. Gusts upwards of 30 kts will be
possible ahead of and behind the front as southwesterly winds
become northwesterly. There is a low chance for the development of
additional showers and isolated thunderstorms behind the front,
which have the potential to graze the D10 TAF sites.
Reeves
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 42 61 43 66 45 / 5 0 0 20 10
Waco 41 62 43 67 44 / 0 0 0 30 10
Paris 38 58 37 61 40 / 20 0 0 10 10
Denton 37 60 38 63 40 / 5 0 0 20 5
McKinney 39 59 39 63 41 / 10 0 0 20 10
Dallas 42 61 43 65 45 / 5 0 0 20 10
Terrell 40 59 40 64 43 / 10 0 0 10 10
Corsicana 43 62 44 68 46 / 5 0 0 10 10
Temple 41 64 44 69 44 / 0 0 0 30 5
Mineral Wells 37 61 40 67 41 / 0 0 5 30 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$