Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 172353 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF BRECKENRIDGE...
SITTING ALONG A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL EASE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WEAK FORCING WILL FROM
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
SKIM ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20 THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN PASS TO
OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

IT APPEARS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS  WEST OF I-35. THE WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT BELOW
850MB FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EAST TOWARD THE I-35/45 CORRIDORS
OVERNIGHT...THEN LINGERING MAINLY WEST OF I-35 EAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION AS WELL. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
NORTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY MID-LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH ALL
WEATHER ELEMENTS ENDING. ANY FOG WILL BE OF THE LIGHT VARIETY AND
NOT DENSE. RAINFALL VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AS WELL...MOSTLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE
GRASS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING...FROM VFR TO MVFR AND DOWN TO IFR IN WESTERN METROPLEX.
-RA SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON UNTIL SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT LATER
THIS EVENING. WITHOUT RAIN TO SATURATE LLVLS I EXPECT THE TEMPO
IFR IN FTW AND AFW TO END. FAIRLY STAGNANT LLVL FLOW OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND NO FORCING TO BLOW OUT THIS SOUPY
WX MEANS I CANNOT AGREE WITH GUIDANCE THAT IS RAISING CEILINGS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS AUGMENTED BY THE POOR JOB THEY DID
YESTERDAY EVENING ON THE OVERNIGHT CEILINGS AS WELL. WILL KEEP
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MORNING. WACO HAS NOT SEEN THE DRIZZLE/RAIN THAT
THE METROPLEX HAS...AND HAS HIGHER CEILINGS CURRENTLY BUT STILL
EXPECT MVFR CIGS THERE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. 84




&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS SHORT-LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 70S AND HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE RISE WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTH WINDS WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FINALLY OPENS UP AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS
ARE ALSO MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 CLOSER TO THE
PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SBCAPE WITH MOST VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG AND SOME SORT OF
CAP...HOWEVER...VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOSER TO THE RED
RIVER. WHERE SBCAPE IS LACKING THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
CAPE PRESENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SBCAPE MINIMAL.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT CONTINUES TO APPEAR LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS LOW TOO BUT WITH EVEN MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER. EVEN THOUGH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...A ROGUE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...POSSIBLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN WE MAY GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND THE
LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY MAXIMIZED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TROUGH
FOR A FEW DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT EVEN THE ECMWF
HAS SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

82/JLD



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  77  59  79  64 /  20  10  10  10  20
WACO, TX              54  75  56  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             50  74  55  75  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            51  75  55  78  61 /  20  10  10  10  30
MCKINNEY, TX          51  75  53  77  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            55  77  59  79  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX           52  75  54  77  61 /  10  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         54  76  58  78  61 /  10  10  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            55  76  55  78  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     54  74  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

84/05





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