Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 270230 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
930 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016
Much of the convection that developed this afternoon has decayed
with just a few showers and a handful of lingering lightning
strikes noted across mainly the far eastern portions of our CWA.
This activity will also diminish over the next one to two hours.
Opted to leave the inherited low overnight PoPs in the forecast
with plenty of outflows dancing around out there this evening, but
most of the area will remain dry. Otherwise, made a few
adjustments to bring the forecast in line with current trends.
/ISSUED 726 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/
What is believed to be the last outflow boundary of the day was
moving toward KAFW and KFTW as of 00z Saturday. This along with
sunset approaching...should mean that the chances of
showers/thunderstorms for the rest of the evening through the
overnight hours should be minimal. Had placed VCSH in the
Metroplex TAFs through 02z but may be able to remove that soon.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
late morning through the afternoon Saturday. For now have just
placed VCSH for the 18z through 00z period. Outside of any
showers/thunderstorms...VFR conditions will prevail. East to
southeast winds 8 to 12 knots will prevail.
At Waco...showers and thunderstorms were on-going at TAF issuance
time. The storms near the airport should be over by 01z...thus
have just placed TEMPO TSRA for the 00-01z period with a VCTS
through 02z. Some isolated to scattered showers could redevelop
overnight...so have just kept VCSH overnight. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop late Saturday morning
through the afternoon across Central Texas. Thus have placed VCTS
in the Waco TAF for the 18z through 00z period. Once
again...Outside of any showers/thunderstorms...VFR conditions will
prevail. East to southeast winds 8 to 12 knots will prevail.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across North and Central Texas through late afternoon. There will
be some isolated downburst potential with the stronger storms
with the more likely hazard being heavy rainfall and localized
flooding. We have had a few tropical funnels reported around the
region which is not too surprising based on the very moist
airmass in place. We expect activity to decrease quickly around
sunset. Therefore, most outdoor activities will not be affected,
but a few showers or storms may linger into mid evening.
The moisture that is currently in place across the region will begin
to be shunted to the south and southwest tonight and Saturday as an
upper level low spins along the Texas Coast. This will keep the
best rain chances generally across the southern zones, but all areas
will have at least a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
Upper level high pressure will build in from the east Sunday
through early next week. This will force the low on the coast to
move farther west/southwest and bring increasing subsidence/
decreasing moisture and decreasing precipitation chance to the
forecast area. There will still be a low chance for showers and
storms Sunday through Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon across
the southern zones.
Upper level high pressure will build over the Central Conus the
second half of next week which will bring warmer and drier
weather to the entire region. Afternoon highs will be slightly
above seasonal normals, especially Thursday and Friday. The upper
ridge should remain in place through next weekend and keep summer
conditions going as we head into early September.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 91 75 91 76 / 20 20 10 20 10
Waco 73 90 73 89 74 / 40 30 10 30 10
Paris 72 90 72 91 72 / 40 20 10 20 10
Denton 71 90 72 91 72 / 20 20 10 20 10
McKinney 72 90 73 92 73 / 30 20 10 20 10
Dallas 75 91 76 92 76 / 30 20 10 20 10
Terrell 73 89 74 91 74 / 40 30 10 20 10
Corsicana 74 89 74 90 75 / 40 30 20 30 10
Temple 72 89 73 88 73 / 40 30 20 40 20
Mineral Wells 71 91 71 90 72 / 20 20 10 20 10