Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242045
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor loops and upper air analysis reveal a broad diffluent
pattern in place across the region this afternoon. At the
surface, deep southerly flow continues, which has helped keep low
stratus plentiful today amidst surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. The main challenge for tonight revolves around
precip chances over parts of of the CWA as a weak/subtle impulse
grazes the region. Recent HRRR solutions have tended to back off
on any real noteworthy convection overnight, and it does appear
that the lack of appreciable forcing will significantly limit our
chances of convection tonight.

For Wednesday, all indications point to the atmosphere becoming
increasingly capped as very steep lapse rates continue to overtop
the very rich low-level airmass. Forecast soundings tomorrow show
impressive MLCAPE values on the order of 3000-4000 J/Kg, but with
very little large scale forcing for ascent present, do think most
of the area will remain dry. Several CAMs, including the Texas
Tech WRF, members of the NCAR Ensemble, and the 4 km NAM develop
isolated storms near the Red River during the afternoon, but
development will likely remain tied to any subtle boundaries that
might set up from earlier convection. Again, any storms that
develop in such a buoyant airmass would pose a risk for hail and
damaging winds, but do think this risk is low at this time.

On Thursday, a potent upper low will begin to slide across the
desert Southwest. Out ahead of this system, models have
consistently shown a lead shortwave exiting out of the high
terrain of Mexico during the overnight hours on Wednesday/Thursday
morning. Depending on the timing of this impulse, showers and
storms could develop early on Thursday morning and overspread the
region, tempering the subsequent severe weather threat. In
addition, wind profiles do not look particularly robust at this
time. Given the presence of very deep moisture (PWAT values near
+2SD from normal) heavy rainfall will be a threat Thursday and
especially Friday as the main trough axis moves into the region
which may lead to flooding concerns. Shear profiles should improve
on Friday as winds increase ahead of the main trough axis, which
could foster a somewhat better environment for severe storms.

We may get a temporary reprieve from the widespread rainfall on
Saturday as weak shortwave ridging/height rises move into the
region, but expect renewed chances of rainfall into early next
week as broad troughing and multiple impluses make a run at our
region.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1254 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/
Main forecast challenge is the low potential for thunderstorms
early this evening developing near or over the TRACON. While there
is no low level focus for storms to initiate near the I-35
corridor, all models show erosion of the cap due to forcing
reaching the region late this afternoon ahead of a shortwave
trough...and some models indicate that warm advection showers
will develop and possibly grow into storms in the very unstable
environment. Again, due to limited surface focus it is possible
nothing will develop, but there is enough concern to watch this
potential very closely. The cap will strengthen again after
3z/10pm when the shortwave trough moves past the region which
would end any threat for storms. For now have indicated VCSH from
0-2z or 7-9pm CDT for DAL/DFW as the models that do convect seem
to keep it just west of these sites. For the other Metroplex sites
have indicated VCTS during that same 2 hour window due to ever so
slightly higher probabilities there.

Otherwise southerly flow will continue at 10-15kt through the
period. Generally VFR CIGs will prevail this afternoon and this
evening. MVFR CIGs will return overnight and have used similar
timing/trends as what occurred yesterday and last night. Given
the slightly stronger southerly flow and warmer temps tonight feel
comfortable keeping CIGs just above IFR even though MOS does
indicate that this will occur.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  90  76  84  70 /  20  10  10  60  50
Waco                74  90  75  84  69 /  20  10  20  60  60
Paris               70  87  71  82  68 /  40  10  10  40  50
Denton              72  88  72  84  68 /  20  10  10  60  50
McKinney            72  87  73  82  69 /  30  10  10  50  50
Dallas              74  90  77  84  70 /  20  10  10  50  50
Terrell             73  88  73  82  69 /  30  10  10  50  50
Corsicana           74  89  74  84  70 /  20  10  10  50  60
Temple              74  88  74  83  70 /  10  10  20  60  60
Mineral Wells       72  89  72  85  68 /  20  10  10  60  50

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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