Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 222038
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...IT WILL
DRAG AN ATTENDANT TROUGH WITH IT. THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS
MEAGER...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...
IMPROVING THE CHANCES THAT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE VERIFIED AT THE
SURFACE. DESPITE THE INCREASING LIFT IN THE MID-LEVELS...MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL MEAN RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON FRIDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S REGION WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE
SATURDAY WHEN A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE 90-DEGREE MARK.
DFW AIRPORT WILL BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH...BUT THE RECORDS AT
WACO ARE LIKELY UNTOUCHABLE. (SEE NUMBERS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.)

THE RIDGE WILL RETURN TO A MORE APPROPRIATE LATITUDE NEAR THE
TROPIC OF CANCER...AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL INVADE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE...THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
WHICH WILL DICTATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH A
LESS DRAMATIC GFS/GEM CONSENSUS...WHICH STALLS THE BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT ALSO MEANS
LESS FORCING AND A STRONGER CAP THAN THE ECMWF...AND
CORRESPONDINGLY LESS PRECIP.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
          FRI OCT 24          SAT OCT 25          SUN OCT 26
      FORECAST / RECORD   FORECAST / RECORD   FORECAST / RECORD

DFW    85 / 90 IN 2003     87 / 89 IN 1992*    86 / 92 IN 1950
WACO   85 / 91 IN 1992*    87 / 94 IN 1992     87 / 94 IN 1992

   * AND IN EARLIER YEARS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS....E TO SE BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AREAS OF VFR CU WILL CONTINUE ALONG A SMALL
TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER MORNING ANALYSIS. A FEW PERIODS OF BKN
VFR CU AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15-18 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAILY MIXING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SWING ACROSS
NORTH TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT DUE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER AS
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY VCSH
OR -SHRA DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT.

FOR THE WACO TAFS...E TO ESE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION AND WITH A BULK OF THE
FORCING CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR...HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF
ANY VICINITY PRECIP. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY STRONGER
BREEZES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
BR/FG OVERNIGHT.

15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  79  59  85  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              57  80  56  85  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  74  53  80  58 /  10  20   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  79  56  85  59 /  20  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  78  54  82  57 /  10  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  79  59  84  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  78  54  82  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  80  56  84  60 /   5   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  57  86  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  81  57  86  60 /  20  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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