Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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582
FXUS64 KFWD 130512 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 00Z TAFS AS CHALLENGES CONTINUE REGARDING
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
OVER S-CENTRAL TX. SURFACE-BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON AREA PROFILERS
CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER NE FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. THIS WILL HOLD VFR CONDS AND NE WINDS NEAR 10
KTS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS OT THE WEST...WIND DIRECTION AT ALL
AIRPORTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH LOW VFR CIGS
STREAMING UP FROM THE GULF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

05/

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL OFFSET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH A FEW WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  60  51  65  49 /   0   0   5  20  40
WACO, TX              43  65  51  70  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             35  53  41  54  44 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  59  49  65  45 /   0   0   5  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          37  57  49  63  47 /   0   0   5  20  50
DALLAS, TX            42  60  51  67  50 /   0   0  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           40  59  49  64  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  62  51  69  52 /   5   0  10  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            44  65  51  70  50 /   5   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  63  50  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/79



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