Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 270524
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1124 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS COMPRISED OF A
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST...PLACING NORTH TEXAS
IN A REGION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI MOVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE FRONT HAS MADE IT
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA ALREADY...BRINGING NORTH WINDS AROUND 15
MPH IN ITS WAKE. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE
THUS FAR AS TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW
70 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... COOLER READINGS
NOW SEEN IN OK SHOULD BEGIN ADVECTING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING...WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT. SOME RURAL LOCATIONS
WILL SEE MORNING LOW TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. PATCHY AREAS OF FROST WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST DURING THE THANKSGIVING MORNING
HOURS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIGHT IF
AT ALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. RETURN FLOW WILL
CRANK UP SUBSTANTIALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A
PRONOUNCED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COUPLED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SWING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND...SENDING AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BRING AN ABRUPT
END TO THESE TEMPERATURES AS IT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. MODEL
DATA NOW INDICATES THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL OPEN UP AS A PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN OBSTACLE WITH REGARD TO THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT...SO THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MAKE
IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...TAKING US FROM
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY-SUNDAY TO TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...THE WEAKER UPPER TROUGH MEANS THAT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS THE FEATURE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS DURING
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE POINTS AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING TROUGH. WE WILL KEEP
THESE POPS AT 20 PERCENT AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY AS NEWER MODEL
DATA ARRIVES.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  37  58  41  69  54 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              36  61  40  69  53 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             33  56  35  64  50 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            34  58  41  68  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          33  57  38  68  51 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            38  58  40  69  54 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           35  58  37  67  53 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         37  60  38  69  54 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            36  61  40  69  52 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  61  39  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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