Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 232349 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
549 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

00 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---FROPA timing. Otherwise, VFR.

Breezy southerly conditions will continue over the next 1-2
hours through about sunset. Thereafter, gusts above 20 knots
should cease with generally southerly winds. Winds may back
slightly towards the southeast as the dryline retreats for an hour
or two before veering with the approach of a precipitation-free
cold front. Patchy blowing dust, currently observed along and
northwest a MAF to ABI to LAW line should remain to the northwest
of area terminals with perhaps some very light haze around sunset.
Significant obscuration to ceiling or visibility are NOT

Otherwise, the cold front across southern KS will slide southward
towards North and Central TX terminals through the overnight hours.
Winds will veer to the west ahead of the front before becoming
northwesterly at around 10-12 knots a few hours after the front`s
passage. FROPA is expected across Metroplex TAF sites around 12
UTC with FROPA closer to 14 UTC at the Waco Regional Airport.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/
Gusty south-southwest winds today have combined with record and
near record high temperatures for a warm, windy, and dry day
across North and Central Texas. DFW has once again broken a daily
record in February today with a current reading of 88 degrees at 3
pm and it`s highly possible we could reach 90 degrees before it`s
all said and done. The previous record high was 86 degrees in
1933. Waco`s record high is 89 degrees in 1996 and they currently
sit at 83 degrees, so chances are they will not break their
record. Out in our western counties, lower 90s were common and
elevated to high fire weather conditions will continue through 5-6

The record warmth will be short-lived however, as a strong cold
front currently entering northern Kansas surges across the Red
River Valley during the pre-dawn hours Friday before clearing our
Central Texas counties by midday Friday. It will be brisk and much
cooler, though not overly cold with highs in the 60s north to
lower 70s south. All the upper support for precipitation will be
well to the north, so this will be a dry frontal passage with
elevated fire concerns once again for at least the western two-
thirds of the CWA, where lower humidity values will combine with
occasionally gusty north winds around 15 mph.

Friday night will be definitely coat weather, as north winds of
10 to 15 mph continue. Lows by Saturday morning will range from
near freezing northwest to the lower 40s across Central Texas. A
surface high will settle across Eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks
on Saturday with dry zonal flow aloft. Plenty of sunshine can be
expected with highs mainly in the 50s. South winds will return
Saturday night and become breezy on Sunday, as temperatures
moderate in advance of yet another fast-moving upper disturbance
to the west and the surface high shifts east of our area.

WAA in advance of the late weekend disturbance will rapidly surge
especially elevated moisture northward with surface dew points
only rising back into the 50s across Central Texas by Sunday
afternoon. With steepening lapse rates aloft and isentropic ascent
just above the surface, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop within an area of large-scale ascent. It
appears the best moisture and storm coverage Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night will be along and east of I-35/35W. Sounding
profiles indicate much of this convection could be elevated in
nature due to an elevated mixed layer (or capping inversion aloft)
anchored around 800mb. That said, our far E/SE counties may see
warm and moist enough surface conditions for surface-based
storms. That said, with strong 50 knot westerly 0-6km bulk shear
that a few strong to marginally severe storms cannot completely be
rule out across our east/southeast counties Sunday night. We will
continue to monitor this time frame closely in the next few days.

The late weekend shortwave and associated Pacific cold front will
move through the area Monday morning with only isolated rain
chances remaining across the far eastern counties Monday morning.
Temperatures will be mild Monday with highs mostly in the 70s, as
little CAA will be associated with the Pacific cold front.
Surface cyclogenesis ahead of yet another shortwave moving
progressively east within zonal flow aloft occurs Monday night
and Tuesday with highs on Tuesday warming well into the 70s with
lows Tuesday night in the 50s with south breezes continuing. The
best moisture should remain across East Texas with the best
forcing occurring well north of our area, across Kansas and
Northern Oklahoma. Can`t rule out a few stray showers in the
eastern counties, but nothing of significance.

Otherwise, another brisk and cool day on Wednesday with highs 55
to 65 degrees with brisk north winds behind yet another cold
front arriving by Wednesday morning. A confluent split-flow
pattern over the Southern Plains next Thursday through Saturday
should result in dry and near seasonable conditions with highs
mostly in the 60s.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  68  37  57  40 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                50  72  37  60  40 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               52  67  36  55  36 /   5   5   5   0   0
Denton              47  66  33  55  37 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            50  67  35  56  36 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              54  69  38  57  41 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             52  69  38  57  39 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           53  71  40  59  41 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              52  74  38  61  41 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       45  67  33  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0




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