Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 230950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING ONE LAST CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
BEFORE A PROTRACTED DRY PERIOD BEGINS.

ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT RAIN REACHED THE SURFACE...THE BANDS OF PRECIP
ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAD THE APPEARANCE OF SNOW. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700MB LOW. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WAS LARGELY BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THOUGH SOME
OF THE PRECIP PROCESSES EXTENDED AS HIGH AS 12-14KFT AGL. DESPITE
A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER THROUGH WHICH TO FALL...THE FROZEN
HYDROMETEORS FULLY MELTED IN THE 2000FT LAYER ADJACENT TO THE
GROUND THAT REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WEAK FORCING HAS NOW
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT APPROACHING WITH THE 500MB TROUGH. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN...BUT SNOWFLAKES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE RICH
MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE
WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME.
COMPARED TO SAN ANGELO...WHERE THE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE IS
IN LIQUID FORM...ANY SNOW WILL HAVE TO TRAVERSE AN ADDITIONAL
1000FT BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN THIS MORNING. ANY SNOW WOULD POSE NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE. FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY...
AT WHICH POINT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/
/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
UPPER LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS IS MAKING SLOW YET STEADY
PROGRESS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ACCORDINGLY...SOMEWHAT
DRIER SUBSIDENT AIR IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON NORTH TEXAS (FROM
THE N) AS OF 06Z...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY. STILL EXPECT SOME SCATTERED -RA...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A
SNOWFLAKE OR TWO ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
TREND WILL BE ONE OF IMPROVING CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL DF/W-AREA TERMINALS BY NO LATER
THAN 13-14Z. WACO SHOULD HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER...BUT
LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE N. CLEARING
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY 00Z/SAT.

NNELY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO NWLY OVERNIGHT
AND PERSIST THRU MOST OF FRIDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN IN THE 09-13KT
CATEGORY FRIDAY.

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  33  58  39  67 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              48  31  60  36  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             48  30  56  36  65 /  30   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  30  57  35  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  30  57  36  66 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            50  34  57  40  67 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           50  32  57  37  66 /  30   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         48  33  58  39  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            48  32  60  36  68 /  50   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  30  59  34  69 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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