Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 281638
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Will send out a quick update to adjust cloud cover and hourly
temp/dewpoint trends. Even though the clouds have been a bit slow
to clear, we are reluctant to lower afternoon highs based on the
very shallow and warm inversion shown on the 12 FWD sounding.

There is still a low chance of a shower or storm late this
afternoon and evening, especially across the southwest zones so
will not adjust pops any.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 721 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
IFR stratus moved into Central and North Texas around 03z and
into the Metroplex 0430-0530z. Expect ceilings improve to MVFR
around 16z. The MVFR ceilings should scatter out 17-18z as deeper
vertical mixing occurs. Expect MVFR ceilings to spread back
northward by 05z Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in
the Metroplex late this afternoon /after 21z/ through tonight.
The chances of thunderstorms are low...and have only placed VCSH
after 05z. South winds around 10 knots will prevail through the
period.

At Waco....borderline LIFR/IFR conditions at TAF issuance time
will improve to MVFR late this morning /16-17z/ as deeper
vertical mixing occurs. VFR conditions are expected early
afternoon as the stratus scatters. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible after 21z but the better chances will be mid to late
evening as scattered thunderstorms that develop over the
Concho Valley into the Hill Country move east into Central Texas.
Have placed a VCTS in the Waco starting at 03z with a TEMPO TSRA
for the 03-07z period.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Morning satellite imagery depicts a shield of high clouds from
previous convection associated with the departing shortwave exiting
the region to the east. Patchy dense fog has developed across
portions of Central TX early this morning where skies have
cleared with shallow moisture and light surface winds in place. A
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 8AM for areas along
and surrounding the I-35 corridor where fog should be the most
widespread through the morning hours. Elsewhere, low stratus has
overspread a large portion of North and Central Texas from the
east as southeast 925mb winds advect in more moist and warmer air.
Expect low clouds and fog to mix out fairly quickly after sunrise
this morning.

The main forecast challenge will be potential for thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. With mostly clear skies this
afternoon, temperatures will climb into the mid 80s to low 90s,
and with surface dewpoints around 70 degrees, strong instability
will be present across our entire area. The limiting factor for
storm development will be the apparent absence of lift. However,
high-res models continue to develop isolated storms late this
afternoon primarily across areas west of I-35. This seemingly is
due to a surge of high theta-e air at the nose of the
southeasterly 850mb jet where low-level convergence may be able to
overcome subsidence from weak upper ridging behind the departing
shortwave. The somewhat washed-out dryline does not seem to be the
impetus for initiation in the models for this afternoon. In
addition, we may vaguely be influenced the the left exit region of
a subtropical jet streak draped through northern Mexico which
could spread some weak large-scale ascent over the area. Even
with diabatic heating, we will need some additional forcing to
break a fairly strong cap that should be in place area-wide
today.

At this time, have relatively low expectations for activity this
afternoon, and think the most coverage would be confined to the
Hill Country and our far southwest zones including the
Temple/Killeen area. However, an isolated storm or two seems
possible farther north, even up near the Red River. Should any
storm manage to develop, it could become strong to severe solely
due to the instability present with moderate wind shear. Large
hail would likely be the main severe threat this afternoon. It`s
also possible that if storms develop farther southwest outside
our area they could be ushered into our Central TX counties by the
west/southwest flow aloft late tonight; this solution is supported
by the TT WRF. Have left 20/30 PoPs for today/tonight with low
confidence in placement/coverage of thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm potential seems a bit higher on Sunday with weak
troughing aloft and mid-level height falls impinging on the area.
Although we could see some isolated storms during the day, it
appears the better chances will occur late Sunday night into
Monday morning as guidance continues to suggest a complex of
storms developing in the TX Panhandle Sunday night and diving
southeastward as an MCS. North Texas would have the greatest
chance of being impacted should this solution materialize. There
should be some dry time for any outdoor Memorial Day holiday
activities on Sunday as long as the weather is monitored, but
Monday looks like any outdoor plans could be adversely affected
for a large portion of the day.

A trough will deepen to our west on Tuesday and Wednesday which
will increase our chances for additional rain and thunderstorms through
midweek. A late spring cold front should enter Texas Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning which will be the focus for potentially a
few rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain from Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. Additional post-frontal rainfall would
be possible area-wide through most of Thursday as the front moves
into southern Texas. The GFS and ECMWF have been in decent
agreement with this solution and have also both been trending
faster with the front and the associated upper trough. The good
news from that, should this solution materialize, is that Friday
through Sunday would be dry with slightly below normal
temperatures as an upper ridge builds to our west, bringing at
least a brief break in the active weather pattern.

-Stalley



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  72  86  70  84 /  20  20  20  40  40
Waco                88  71  85  69  84 /  20  30  30  30  20
Paris               84  69  86  67  83 /  20  20  20  30  50
Denton              87  69  85  66  83 /  20  20  20  50  40
McKinney            86  70  85  68  84 /  20  20  20  40  40
Dallas              89  72  88  70  85 /  20  20  20  40  40
Terrell             87  71  87  69  85 /  20  20  20  30  40
Corsicana           88  72  86  71  85 /  20  20  30  30  30
Temple              87  71  84  69  83 /  20  30  30  30  20
Mineral Wells       88  70  85  66  83 /  20  20  30  50  40

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

91/79


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