Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 131221 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
721 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017


.UPDATE...
Changed patchy fog to patchy dense fog generally S of HWY 84 and
along HWY 190 from Temple east. Any patchy dense fog should
quickly disperse with increasing south winds and rapidly warming
temperatures by mid morning and after.

05/

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 637 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/
/12Z TAFs/

Only concerns for the 12Z cycle will be the expansive VLIFR-IFR
stratus deck along the I-10 corridor over Central and Southeast TX
that may briefly impact Waco Regional airport from between sunrise
and mid morning. The broad stratus field was moving slowly
northward on a southerly 925mb wind field generally 15-25 knots
early this morning.

I went ahead and introduced a TEMPO IFR deck at FL007-009 between
13z-15z at Waco Regional per latest satellite trajectories and
the latest RUC high-res soundings, which are now showing this
brief potential. Why IFR versus LIFR/VLIFR? The reasoning is by
the time the stratus reaches Waco, insolation, low-level warm
advection, and gradually increasing south winds should allow for
cigs to be rising. Cigs could possibly turn out to be low MVFR if
the deck was to slow by another hour or so, so plenty of uncertainty
here at Waco this morning. In addition, there could be at least
some MVFR category visibility falls, but have left out for now
with uncertainty on just how quickly wind speeds come up later
this morning.

Otherwise, VFR at DFW Metro airports with an increasing southerly
surface wind expected to reach up to 10 knots by late morning.
There may be a few gusts in the 15-20 knot range by midday and
early afternoon, but with less than a 10 knot difference between
sustained and gust speeds, have decided to keep gusts out of the
forecast. The upper high should remain entrenched enough that only
a few CU at FL035-040 will be floating around today this far
north.

05/

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 327 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

Quiet sensible weather will continue. Currently, a surface ridge
of high pressure remained situated over our eastern counties and
East Texas. Meanwhile above the surface, south-southeast flow of
15-25 knots was occurring in the boundary layer to 850mb, in
response to a mid-upper level trough organizing over the Rockies
and Western U.S. We continue to see on IR satellite some spotty
strato-cumulus moving northward across Central and Southeast
Texas. With the surface ridge remaining nearby over our far
southeast counties and near 70 degree dew point temperatures just
off to the south. Have decided to insert patchy fog through mid
morning southeast of a Temple-Mexia-Buffalo/Centerville line as
dew point depressions lessen.

Any patchy fog should burn off quickly after mid morning and
surface temperatures readily warm with mixing and increasing
southerly winds 10 to 15 mph by this afternoon. Highs will warm to
well above normal values into the upper 80s and lower 90s across
the area. With the increase in humidity, temperatures will feel
like the mid 90s, though the south breezes should help keep things
from feeling too oppressive. South winds will stay up to between
10 to 15 mph tonight, especially areas along and west of I-35, as
the pressure gradient continues tightening up somewhat in lieu of
pressure falls to the west. Some scattered strato-cumulus will
once again lift northward across the area with lows 65 to 70
degrees, but in the lower 70s across the immediate DFW Metroplex.
Rain chances will remain NIL through the period.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/
/Saturday Onward/

The main focus through the next several days is the strong cold
front progged to sweep through the region late Saturday night and
early Sunday morning. After an unseasonably hot Saturday, this
front will bring a quick shot of some rain and a few thunderstorms
followed by a few days of near- or below-normal temperatures.

The shortwave energy currently positioned over the Pacific
Northwest will be the main weather feature of concern for the next
few days. This shortwave will dig southward through the Central
Plains over the weekend and carry a strong cold front with it. As
the trough begins deepening to our northwest on Saturday, winds
through the low-levels will veer more westerly. This should favor
some anomalously hot temperatures by October standards, and most
of the forecast area should climb into the low to mid 90s Saturday
afternoon. It appears that the record highs of 99 and 98 at DFW
and Waco, respectively, will remain safe. Mixing aided by 10-15
mph throughout the afternoon should prevent temperature readings
from abruptly climbing into the upper 90s.

By Saturday evening, the cold front should be making quick
southward progress through KS and OK while generating showers and
thunderstorms along and just behind it. This front will be fast-
moving (as much as 30-40 mph) and will eventually outrun the
upper dynamic support of the shortwave which will be moving in a
more easterly direction over the Midwest. For us, this means the
band of showers and thunderstorms that will be located through
Oklahoma will begin to weaken rather quickly as it accompanies the
front into North Texas after midnight Sunday morning. Frontal
passage should occur in the DFW area between 3-5am and at Waco
just prior to daybreak. Areas along the Red River should receive
some rainfall with the frontal passage, but the precipitation
shield should begin to fall apart rather quickly as it nears I-20,
thus rain chances will decrease from north to south. With very
limited forcing and instability, the potential for any strong or
severe storms is incredibly low. Gradient winds associated with
the front would likely be stronger than any winds due to
convective activity. Elevated post-frontal showers will remain
possible through Sunday morning across most of the area and will
also taper off from north to south throughout the afternoon. North
winds will be fairly strong (around 20-30 mph with higher gusts)
in vicinity of the front, and will remain breezy throughout the
day. With substantial dry air filtering in, clouds will begin
clearing as early as Sunday afternoon, but highs should only reach
the 60s and low 70s for most of the forecast area thanks to
strong cold advection.

The remainder of the extended forecast appears mostly dry and
uneventful as the strong cold front will scour out moisture not
only from our CWA, but actually across the entire CONUS through
the first half of next week. Very pleasant autumn weather will
prevail Monday though Wednesday with a gradual warming trend. Lows
will likely be in the 40s for many locations Monday and/or
Tuesday morning. Tuesday should end up being the coolest morning
in quite some time as weak east winds and clear skies should allow
for very favorable radiational cooling. As the surface high
shifts east, temperatures will warm a few degrees each day through
the end of the week and moisture will begin to return as winds
come back around to the south on Thursday and Friday. A few days
of above-normal temperatures should occur towards the end of the
week and next weekend before another front potentially arrives in
the 10-12 day time frame.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  71  94  62  70 /   0   0   0  50  30
Waco                92  69  93  64  73 /   0   0   0  20  30
Paris               88  67  91  61  70 /   0   0   0  40  20
Denton              91  69  92  59  70 /   0   0   0  50  20
McKinney            89  68  92  60  70 /   0   0   0  50  20
Dallas              91  72  94  62  71 /   0   0   0  50  30
Terrell             91  68  92  62  73 /   0   0   0  40  30
Corsicana           89  69  93  64  73 /   0   0   0  20  30
Temple              91  69  92  65  73 /   0   0   5  20  30
Mineral Wells       91  68  92  57  69 /   0   0   0  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/26



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