Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 280450
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA
AIRPORTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS FILTERED IN ON NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF
KACT AS OF MIDNIGHT. WITH NO UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT TO AID
IN LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THINK THAT KACT WILL REMAIN
DRY ALL NIGHT...BUT WILL WATCH FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS
OR STORMS NEAR THE AIRPORT ALL NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE FRONT HAS
ESSENTIALLY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION...APPROXIMATELY JUST NORTH
OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS. WEAK NORTH WINDS AND DRIER
DEWPOINTS ARE BEING REPORTED NORTH OF THIS LINE. THE FRONT MAY
SEEP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS SOUTH. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A
SPREAD IN LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR THE UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 00Z MODEL DATA.
FOR THE POPS OVERNIGHT...ADJUSTED THE LOW POPS TO COVER THE AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. ALSO...ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCOMING HIGH CLOUD DECK FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
CLOUD DECK IS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY ALSO
PREVENT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM FULLY
BOTTOMING OUT TO THEIR DEWPOINT VALUES.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND IT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE THAT HAS POOLED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH DECREASING DEWPOINTS AS LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BENEFIT
FROM DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DROP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER...SO IT SHOULD STILL FEEL
FAIRLY PLEASANT FOR LATE JUNE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE SUNDAY AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BEGIN WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY MONDAY. THIS
MEANS THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO GENERALLY
THE SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY HELP
FORM A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THEN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT DUE TO THE TIME OF THE DAY THE
FORCING COMES ACROSS WHEN INSTABILITY IS MOST LIMITED. THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD STILL BE IN A REGION OF LIFT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...SO WILL SHOW LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. OTHERWISE
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH MEANS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE AND GENERALLY
LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVER THE REGION. THUS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VERY STRAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HOT AND DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL. HIGH TEMPS WILL PLATEAU OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND HELP MAINTAIN A FETCH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OFF THE GULF.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA WITH RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE CWA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE FRONT COULD
SLIP FARTHER SOUTH AND BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT...HAVE ONLY ADDED
POPS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  91  72  93  74 /   5   0   5  10  20
WACO, TX              72  90  70  92  72 /  20  10   5  20  20
PARIS, TX             67  88  69  91  71 /   0   0   5  10  20
DENTON, TX            69  90  68  93  72 /   0   0   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          69  90  68  92  72 /   0   0   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            71  92  74  95  75 /   5   0   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           72  90  70  92  73 /   5   0   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         73  90  71  92  72 /  10   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  90  70  91  71 /  20  10  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  89  67  94  70 /  10   0   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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